Dyatlov Pass Forum

Theories Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Star man on April 16, 2019, 03:48:43 PM

Title: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 16, 2019, 03:48:43 PM
Hi folks,

This might be an interest thought experiment and analysis tool - or not

Is it possible to break down the various events of the DPI into discrete questions and then try to indentify the most simple credible explanation for each question without introducing additional external factors?  In other words assume the following as fact:

The only people on Kholat Syakhl on 1st Feb 1959 were the Dyatlov group
There were no aliens
There were no monsters
There were no animals
There was no military or military weapons or cover up

Is it possible to then build a narrative to explain all events?

For instance here are some of the key questions:

1. why did they leave the tent and the camp?
2. How did they leave the tent and the camp?
3. Where did they go, with whom, why did they go there?
4. What did they do?
5. How did they sustain their injuries?
6. How did they die?
7 etc

Some of the existing theories might come to mind such as avalanche and ball lightning, but they may not be the most credible.

Regards

Star man


Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 16, 2019, 11:41:15 PM
Why did they leave the tent and camp?

The fact that most of them left without their shoes suggests that there was some kind of immediate and significant threat to life?

Or could there have been a perception of an immediate threat to life?

Or they left because they had somehow become intoxicated/drugged and lost their senses?

Or they left knowing what they were doing as some kind of prank or test?  Maybe it was a survival test to go to the tree line and back without their gear?

Or maybe there was some kind of victimisation and bullying with one or more group members and that person lost it and ran into the night without their gear and the rest went after them immediately and before they realised they were all in trouble.

Or maybe for some reason one of the group attacked them with a knife threatening to kill them and they all scattered in different directions?

Any thoughts?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 03:06:41 AM
The simplest explanation is the most fantastic, ball lightning.

It can explain all the key evidence, decision to flee the tent, decision to remain away from the tent, signs of nitric acid, burns, injuries from crushing or explosion, signs of debilitation in (assumed) returning ascent.

It is supported by Semyon's photos and Ivanov's conviction who saw all the evidence before confiscation, eye witness accounts of lights in the area during that period.
It is the front runner theory by far. But no one wants to believe it!  dance1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Morski on April 17, 2019, 03:18:09 AM
.



Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 17, 2019, 06:07:43 AM
The most precise explanation is an enforcing force. There is no other explanation for this incident. Look at the surveillance cuts in the tent. This is definitive evidence of the existence of an external force. This power can be human. But injuries to the snow lair are not what people can do. I mean, there's a compelling force outside of people. That's for sure. And this power could have fired the young men out of the tent immediately. But then the young people decided to go back to the tent rather than die from the cold. Then this forced force must have decided to attack.        THE MAN FROM ANOTHER WORLD*
Always domineering physically and psychologically, he can induce terror, stupefaction, and panic. Some say he has control over fog and wind. Telepathic phenomena are also common. Oftentimes the Kompolen melts into thin air, leaving no traces on the soil or the snow.

Among numerous evidences collected by Koshmanova only few tell of people being mutilated or killed by the Kompolen.

The Russian historian N. M. Karamzin brings up a legend about a forest giant “who would grab ten or more people with his hand so that they could not take him alive…” In 1946, in the village of Shamya, a forest man killed a child, ripping him to shreds, and put his head on a stake. Koshmanova relates a story where a “forest spirit” killed a woman by ripping out her lower jaw.

Despite his sometimes monstrous size, pointed skull and the thick short hair covering his body and face, the Mansi never refer to “the Host” as an animal. “This is a person; however,” say the Mansi, “he is from another world.

“It was the night of February 1st, 1959”. Despite such an epic prologue, the book of the Mansi author Olga Koshmanova, Staring at the Back, makes no mention of the Dyatlov Incident, not even in passing. By a strange coincidence, that very night the author had met “the Host” in a remote village in the Ural taiga. That encounter inspired her almost 50-year-long quest for evidence of this “forest spirit”.

According to the natives’ belief, being in close proximity to “the Host” often comes with a blend of tactile, visual and mental sensations described with the concept of “mayachit*”. The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”. The Mansi put their altars at the borders of those places.

Quite often, such locations will coincide with areas of electromagnetic anomalies.

Once in the forbidden territory, people start to hear things: whistles, stamping of the feet, and shouts - at times so shrilly as to cause vomit. If trespassers do not heed the warning, the Host may appear in the flesh.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Monika on April 17, 2019, 06:11:47 AM
The simplest explanation is the most fantastic, ball lightning.

It can explain all the key evidence, decision to flee the tent, decision to remain away from the tent, signs of nitric acid, burns, injuries from crushing or explosion, signs of debilitation in (assumed) returning ascent.

It is supported by Semyon's photos and Ivanov's conviction who saw all the evidence before confiscation, eye witness accounts of lights in the area during that period.
It is the front runner theory by far. But no one wants to believe it!  dance1

Nigel, dont be affraid I believe!   clap1

Immediatelly I read the article: https://sites.google.com/site/mezoelectric/dyatlov-pass-incident-1
all make sense for me.

It is clear that they were forced out from the tent by an imminent danger, and nothing outside of the tent (except the cold) threaded them. The question is, what was the immediate threat  in the nearest area of the tent?? A tent under electrical discharge would explain it. The skis functioned as lightning conductors. It also explains why they couldn't take their clothes and boot from outside.
Normal ball lighting had durability up to 4 sec but plasmoids are different. There are testimonies of people who have experienced ball lighting take 7 hours. Many people think that we already know all the laws of physics, but that is a mistake. We're still just like the humans at the beginning of discovery.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 17, 2019, 08:30:26 AM
Ball lightning is FAR from being the "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation"

Do you climb the tallest tree around in a lightning show?   I dont care what 'type' of lightning it is, your not going out in the woods with this guy.

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 17, 2019, 08:47:28 AM
So the point of this thread is to try to establish if there could be a simple “normal “ explanation by considering any simple options.

I am not trying to rule out other theories which are well represented in other threads. But is it possible to explain DPI using simple explanations? The interesting bit is if an exhaustive consideration of simple options there isn’t any that can explain it, or at least no simple explanation that is credible.

So- is there a simple explanation for why they might have left the tent with no footwear (other than Semyon, Thibo and Rustems single boot)?

Regards
Star man

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 08:48:36 AM
The simplest explanation is the most fantastic, ball lightning.

It can explain all the key evidence, decision to flee the tent, decision to remain away from the tent, signs of nitric acid, burns, injuries from crushing or explosion, signs of debilitation in (assumed) returning ascent.

It is supported by Semyon's photos and Ivanov's conviction who saw all the evidence before confiscation, eye witness accounts of lights in the area during that period.
It is the front runner theory by far. But no one wants to believe it!  dance1

Nigel, dont be affraid I believe!   clap1

Immediatelly I read the article: https://sites.google.com/site/mezoelectric/dyatlov-pass-incident-1 (https://sites.google.com/site/mezoelectric/dyatlov-pass-incident-1)
all make sense for me.

It is clear that they were forced out from the tent by an imminent danger, and nothing outside of the tent (except the cold) threaded them. The question is, what was the immediate threat  in the nearest area of the tent?? A tent under electrical discharge would explain it. The skis functioned as lightning conductors. It also explains why they couldn't take their clothes and boot from outside.
Normal ball lighting had durability up to 4 sec but plasmoids are different. There are testimonies of people who have experienced ball lighting take 7 hours. Many people think that we already know all the laws of physics, but that is a mistake. We're still just like the humans at the beginning of discovery.
declare1
Hey! Yes i think digging through the 1 metre of snow created an earthing point on an otherwise insulated mountain with unfortunate results.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 08:51:27 AM
Ball lightning is FAR from being the "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation"

Do you climb the tallest tree around in a lightning show?   I dont care what 'type' of lightning it is, your not going out in the woods with this guy.
Try and hang out with Monika perhaps... quiet1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 17, 2019, 08:54:46 AM
Could some of the group simply got drunk on vodka and run down the slope bare foot.  The more sensible ones followed but it was too late by the time they found them?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 17, 2019, 08:55:47 AM
Quote
#5.  This event sent the group into a mad frenzy slashing their way out of the tent in what must have been a horrific panic. After extracting themselves out of the tent and destroying it forever, the group calmly walked down the slope to get away from what was so terrifying.

http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=29.0


 whist1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 09:18:50 AM
So the point of this thread is to try to establish if there could be a simple “normal “ explanation by considering any simple options.

I am not trying to rule out other theories which are well represented in other threads. But is it possible to explain DPI using simple explanations? The interesting bit is if an exhaustive consideration of simple options there isn’t any that can explain it, or at least no simple explanation that is credible.

So- is there a simple explanation for why they might have left the tent with no footwear (other than Semyon, Thibo and Rustems single boot)?

Regards
Star man
Surely the reason the DPI is so fascinating is that it defies simple credible explanations?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 17, 2019, 09:34:16 AM
Could some of the group simply got drunk on vodka and run down the slope bare foot.  The more sensible ones followed but it was too late by the time they found them?

As goes the DP case, nothing is simple.  Most of them were actually dressed quite warm, minus two individuals that had their clothing salvaged.  For instance, several had on their valenki boots which would be the warmest footwear they had.  Their valenki boots were fur-lined wool that was dry compared to their single layer leather boots that were soaked to the bone.


AUTOPSY REPORT OF RUSTEM SLOBODIN

Quote
The body is clothed as follows: a black cotton sweater. Under this is a checked shirt with black and red squares buttoned with three buttons and the cuffs each buttoned with two buttons. The checked shirt has a left pocket fastened with a safety pin. In the pocket is a passport with the name SLOBODIN Rustem Vladimirovich, 310 rubles (one 100 note, four 50 notes and 10 rubles) and a fountain pen with ink. In between the checked shirt and the sweater are two insoles from boots. Under the checked shirt is a warm undershirt and a fleece sweatshirt fastened with two buttons. Under this is a blue knitted shirt with long arms. Warm ski pants fasted with a button and a belt. In the pockets are a pack of matches with 48 matches, a pocket knife on a long string, a comb in a case, two pieces of string and a pencil, and a cotton sock. Under these are satin sports pants, in the back pocket of which is a letter from the trade union committee dated 20 January 1959. Under the sports pants are warm, grey, fleece long underwear fully buttoned/pair from (?) shirt. Under the long underwear are blue satin underpants with elastic. On the right leg is a black felt boot. Under the boot are cotton socks, and then grey woolen socks, a cotton sock, and a brown vigogne sock. The felt boot is missing from the left leg, but there are socks in the same order as the other leg.
   


Lets tally this up....

Head

1) wool ski hat

Upper body    

1) black cotton sweater. 
2) checked shirt with black and red squares   
3) Under the checked shirt is a warm undershirt
4) and a fleece sweatshirt fastened with two buttons
5) Under this is a blue knitted shirt with long arms

Lower body

1) Warm ski pants fasted with a button and a belt
2)  Under these are satin sports pants
3) Under the sports pants are warm, grey, fleece long underwear fully buttoned
4) Under the long underwear are blue satin underpants with elastic


Feet

1) On the right leg is a black felt boot
2) Under the boot are cotton socks
3) then grey woolen socks
4) a cotton sock
5) and a brown vigogne sock

The felt boot is missing from the left leg, but there are socks in the same order as the other leg.



So.......

ONE wool hat, FIVE upper garments, FOUR lower garments, FIVE socks, and One fur-lined wool boot.  Does this sound like someone that slashed their way out of a tent in a panic in their underwear?

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 09:52:01 AM
The most precise explanation is an enforcing force. There is no other explanation for this incident. Look at the surveillance cuts in the tent. This is definitive evidence of the existence of an external force. This power can be human. But injuries to the snow lair are not what people can do. I mean, there's a compelling force outside of people. That's for sure. And this power could have fired the young men out of the tent immediately. But then the young people decided to go back to the tent rather than die from the cold. Then this forced force must have decided to attack.        THE MAN FROM ANOTHER WORLD*
Always domineering physically and psychologically, he can induce terror, stupefaction, and panic. Some say he has control over fog and wind. Telepathic phenomena are also common. Oftentimes the Kompolen melts into thin air, leaving no traces on the soil or the snow.

Among numerous evidences collected by Koshmanova only few tell of people being mutilated or killed by the Kompolen.

The Russian historian N. M. Karamzin brings up a legend about a forest giant “who would grab ten or more people with his hand so that they could not take him alive…” In 1946, in the village of Shamya, a forest man killed a child, ripping him to shreds, and put his head on a stake. Koshmanova relates a story where a “forest spirit” killed a woman by ripping out her lower jaw.

Despite his sometimes monstrous size, pointed skull and the thick short hair covering his body and face, the Mansi never refer to “the Host” as an animal. “This is a person; however,” say the Mansi, “he is from another world.

“It was the night of February 1st, 1959”. Despite such an epic prologue, the book of the Mansi author Olga Koshmanova, Staring at the Back, makes no mention of the Dyatlov Incident, not even in passing. By a strange coincidence, that very night the author had met “the Host” in a remote village in the Ural taiga. That encounter inspired her almost 50-year-long quest for evidence of this “forest spirit”.

According to the natives’ belief, being in close proximity to “the Host” often comes with a blend of tactile, visual and mental sensations described with the concept of “mayachit*”. The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”. The Mansi put their altars at the borders of those places.

Quite often, such locations will coincide with areas of electromagnetic anomalies.

Once in the forbidden territory, people start to hear things: whistles, stamping of the feet, and shouts - at times so shrilly as to cause vomit. If trespassers do not heed the warning, the Host may appear in the flesh.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world (http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world)

"The most precise explanation is an enforcing force."Absolutely priceless one of the best comments i've seen on this board.  kewl1
What happened to superman?
Joking aside, what about not another world but a man from another time? - https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2012/11/cases-of-time-slips/
Google "time slip phenomena (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=time+slip+phenomena&spell=1&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjavI7SyNfhAhWBqaQKHU28CaUQBQgrKAA)"

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 17, 2019, 09:55:17 AM
AUTOPSY REPORT OF KOLMOGOROVA


Quote
The body is dressed as follows: on the head is a red wool hat tied at the chin with a bow. Under the hat is a blue knitted hat attached to the hair with a clip. A blue wool sweater worn on the left with the left cuff torn. Under this is a cotton checked shirt with long sleeves and one closed left pocket; the left sleeve is closed at the cuff. The color of the checked shirt is black, green with red squares. Under the checked shirt on the left side of the chest is a military style defensive mask. Under the checked shirt is a light red woolen sweater worn on the left side with a light red to blue transverse stripe. On the left and right sleeves are two patches, one made from a brown sock and the other from blue cotton fabric. A knitted shirt with long blue arms. A black satin brassiere fastened with two buttons. Baize ski sport pants with a buckle on the hip and closed buttons. At the bottom, the cuffs of the pants are not buttoned; there are three tears on the right pant leg with a depth of 0.5 cm, 1.2 cm, and 0.3 cm. Blue cotton sports pants with (illegible) internal pockets, the buckles on the hips are unbuttoned. In the right pocket is a brown comb with two broken teeth. In the (illegible) pocket there is a black shoestring. At the bottom of the (illegible) on elastic. Knitted women’s fleece leggings of an indeterminable color. Black ladies cotton tights with elastic. Swimming trunks with a four-button closure. On the legs are brown wool (illegible) with fur insoles; under them are blue and brown woolen socks.


Head

1) red wool hat tied at the chin with a bow
2) blue knitted hat attached to the hair with a clip
3) military style defensive mask (NOT ON HEAD)


Upper Body

1) A blue wool sweater
2) Under this is a cotton checked shirt with long sleeves
3) Under the checked shirt is a light red woolen sweater
4) A knitted shirt with long blue arms
5) A black satin brassiere fastened with two buttons


Lower body

1) Baize ski sport pants with a buckle on the hip and closed buttons
2) Blue cotton sports pants
3) Knitted women’s fleece leggings
4) Black ladies cotton tights with elastic
5) Swimming trunks with a four-button closure


Feet

1)  blue woolen socks
2)  brown woolen socks
3)  brown wool (illegible) with fur insoles (Fur-lined Valenki boots)



See where I'm going with this?

There is a reason why I roll my eyes and face-palm my forehead everytime I read about slashing their way out of the tent in their underwear.   
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 17, 2019, 09:57:55 AM
Good point. I think they were cold in the tent without the stove to keep them warm and piled on the clothing for warmth. (See Aspen's posts)

I think the operative word that's missing here is that they were not wearing "protective" clothing i.e. those that protect you from exposure to the elements, outside of a shelter, when they exited the tent.
But I'm not sure if they had such gear back then (I mean compared to the outerwear we have now), though I guess foot protection, like shoes with soles, would be one of those items - which they obviously had.
So why didn't they put them on??

Because they weren't going to be out long
OR they were in a hurried panic and staying in the tent meant certain death (or so they thought)

If the tent being cut from the inside is highly disputed, then why aren't the "orderly" footprints??
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 17, 2019, 10:11:01 AM
Quote
though I guess foot protection, like shoes with soles, would be one of those items - which they obviously had

That were........ soaked through single layer leather.

Quoting myself now... 

Quote
  For instance, several had on their valenki boots which would be the warmest footwear they had.  Their valenki boots were fur-lined wool that was dry compared to their single layer leather boots that were soaked to the bone
.

I dont think people understand clearly....  hand made valenki boots have been worn with NO socks in the COLDEST of conditions for HUNDREDS of years.  Its just a fact. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 17, 2019, 10:31:36 AM
The most precise explanation is an enforcing force. There is no other explanation for this incident. Look at the surveillance cuts in the tent. This is definitive evidence of the existence of an external force. This power can be human. But injuries to the snow lair are not what people can do. I mean, there's a compelling force outside of people. That's for sure. And this power could have fired the young men out of the tent immediately. But then the young people decided to go back to the tent rather than die from the cold. Then this forced force must have decided to attack.        THE MAN FROM ANOTHER WORLD*
Always domineering physically and psychologically, he can induce terror, stupefaction, and panic. Some say he has control over fog and wind. Telepathic phenomena are also common. Oftentimes the Kompolen melts into thin air, leaving no traces on the soil or the snow.

Among numerous evidences collected by Koshmanova only few tell of people being mutilated or killed by the Kompolen.

The Russian historian N. M. Karamzin brings up a legend about a forest giant “who would grab ten or more people with his hand so that they could not take him alive…” In 1946, in the village of Shamya, a forest man killed a child, ripping him to shreds, and put his head on a stake. Koshmanova relates a story where a “forest spirit” killed a woman by ripping out her lower jaw.

Despite his sometimes monstrous size, pointed skull and the thick short hair covering his body and face, the Mansi never refer to “the Host” as an animal. “This is a person; however,” say the Mansi, “he is from another world.

“It was the night of February 1st, 1959”. Despite such an epic prologue, the book of the Mansi author Olga Koshmanova, Staring at the Back, makes no mention of the Dyatlov Incident, not even in passing. By a strange coincidence, that very night the author had met “the Host” in a remote village in the Ural taiga. That encounter inspired her almost 50-year-long quest for evidence of this “forest spirit”.

According to the natives’ belief, being in close proximity to “the Host” often comes with a blend of tactile, visual and mental sensations described with the concept of “mayachit*”. The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”. The Mansi put their altars at the borders of those places.

Quite often, such locations will coincide with areas of electromagnetic anomalies.

Once in the forbidden territory, people start to hear things: whistles, stamping of the feet, and shouts - at times so shrilly as to cause vomit. If trespassers do not heed the warning, the Host may appear in the flesh.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world (http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world)

"The most precise explanation is an enforcing force."Absolutely priceless one of the best comments i've seen on this board.  kewl1
What happened to superman?
Joking aside, what about not another world but a man from another time? - https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2012/11/cases-of-time-slips/
Google "time slip phenomena (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=time+slip+phenomena&spell=1&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjavI7SyNfhAhWBqaQKHU28CaUQBQgrKAA)"
Compelling power = Superman. They're both the same ... They're not different. And the different world = different time is already ... These are the same things.
But this power is not a god. The power should be limited, but it must have incredible power. And it should have many features .... For example, being invisible can be seen from afar as it can be heard and flew ....
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 17, 2019, 11:12:01 AM
Valenki (Russian: ва́ленки, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnkʲɪ]; sg valenok (Russian: ва́ленок, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnək])) are traditional Russian winter footwear, essentially felt boots: the name valenok literally means "made by felting". Valenki are made of wool felt. They are not water-resistant, and are often worn with galoshes to keep water out and protect the soles from wear and tear.

But okay, I get your point, they were dressed warmly. Are you implying then that they perhaps went out to look at something with the intent of coming back to the tent?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 11:27:45 AM

Compelling power = Superman. They're both the same ... They're not different. And the different world = different time is already ... These are the same things.
But this power is not a god. The power should be limited, but it must have incredible power. And it should have many features .... For example, being invisible can be seen from afar as it can be heard and flew ....
I love the language with this, "The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”."

Finally, something took revenge upon the soldiers as well. Three privates went insane and were discharged after they met themselves coming up a hill.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-howler-2 (http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-howler-2)Tricky stuff, reality...
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 11:30:58 AM
Valenki (Russian: ва́ленки, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnkʲɪ]; sg valenok (Russian: ва́ленок, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnək])) are traditional Russian winter footwear, essentially felt boots: the name valenok literally means "made by felting". Valenki are made of wool felt. They are not water-resistant, and are often worn with galoshes to keep water out and protect the soles from wear and tear.

But okay, I get your point, they were dressed warmly. Are you implying then that they perhaps went out to look at something with the intent of coming back to the tent?
Surely that's just their nightwear? They just had a blanket each? How many layers/socks would you wear in bed?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 17, 2019, 11:45:46 AM
I keep watching russian videos on youtube of Russians prancing around in snow wearing traditional non-soled valenki boots.    nose1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Monika on April 17, 2019, 12:06:47 PM
Ball lightning is FAR from being the "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation"

Do you climb the tallest tree around in a lightning show?   I dont care what 'type' of lightning it is, your not going out in the woods with this guy.
Try and hang out with Monika perhaps... quiet1

Yes. If a plasmoid ball get me out of the tent and I walk 1.5 km into the forest, I would certainly climb a tree to see what happens around the tent and waiting  when the lighting thread dissapear. In the dark, the tent and its surrounding could be visible due to illumination. As lighting is only in the area around the tent I am not in danger on the tree due to distance wink1.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 17, 2019, 01:08:03 PM
Quote
I am not in danger on the tree


 whist1

(https://dyatlovpass.com/resources/340/Krivonischenko-Doroshenko-post-mortem-3.jpg)


 lol2
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Monika on April 17, 2019, 01:52:41 PM
Quote
I am not in danger on the tree


 whist1

(https://dyatlovpass.com/resources/340/Krivonischenko-Doroshenko-post-mortem-3.jpg)


 lol2

No if I have a good warm gloves and I hold firmly grin1

Seriously, it was not proven these two boys fall from the trees. And when they get on the tree they were despair and did not expected the danger from lighting.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 17, 2019, 01:55:43 PM
Nigel - are you asking me or Loose Cannon?

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 17, 2019, 02:00:46 PM
Well, Monika - they are the only 2 who have recorded burns on their flesh, not just their clothes, so you may have a point.

I just always felt the burnt-out woodfire their bodies were found around had something to do with it?


This IS a "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation" thread, right? Lol ;)
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 17, 2019, 02:01:32 PM
Nigel - are you asking me or Loose Cannon?
Just making the point, not really asking anyone, but all comments welcome of course.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 17, 2019, 02:02:23 PM
Of course :)
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: tekumze on April 17, 2019, 02:41:05 PM
Few lightning balls, injury bigger and smaller, panic of not understanding natural force, fear of unknow, wrong conclusion due very cold weather, time running out, less and less stamina, subcooling... and this is the end...
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 17, 2019, 02:44:44 PM
Ok, what about this as an option:

Tensions have been rising in the group for some time.  Not everyone is working as hard as they are expected to.  They are tired, cold.  Tempers are close to the surface.  Some of the group start to drink alcohol, (or not, its not critical to the scanario).

Dyatlov writes the evening Otorten and some take offence that they are being joked about.  The alcohol fuels this more and a fight breaks out.  The fight spills out into the snow outside the tent.  One or more of the group run off into the night down the slope.  Others give chase.  It's dark and easy to become lost?  It's also hazardous and easy to slip and fall.  On the slope people become separated Dyatlov, Zina and Rustem wander around by themselves trying to find others until the cold stops them.  The two Yuris find the cedar and build the fire.  The rav four head down the slope and Luda Semyon and Thibo fall off a ridge and sustain their injuries.  Kolevatov carries them to the ravine, he goes to the cedar for help but the twomYuris are already dead.  He takes their clothes and some fir saplings to build a bed off the snow.  He places the injured on the bed of branches but his own strength leaves him and he dies.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 17, 2019, 02:57:58 PM
Hi Star man. With response to your initial question particularly:

"Is it possible to break down the various events of the DPI into discrete questions and then try to indentify the most simple credible explanation for each question without introducing additional external factors?  In other words assume the following as fact:
The only people on Kholat Syakhl on 1st Feb 1959 were the Dyatlov group"....

I feel like that is maybe one of the integral ideas we CAN'T assume as fact, because if we do, and we take away all others like aliens, animals, military involvement etc., then the Dyatlov group are themselves responsible for their own deaths, either by accident (this could include misadventure) or murder.

Unless that's where you're going with this. :) And I think a lot of people maybe don't want to accept that that is what happened.

If it IS what happened, there is still a compelling mystery there, because the circumstances really are quite bizarre, especially if we're looking at the injuries, particularly those of the Rav 4.
But all else taken away, I would say the simplest possible credible explanation for their injuries is a fall (sorry Nigel - here Military tracked vehicle is not an option :)))

My other point is that they weren't the only people in the area - I mean sure, no one else that we know of was ON the east shoulder of Kholat Syakhl, but there were other people around (other hikers, a supposed hunter, Mansi, even if they were some distance away). I really think that this can't be ignored. Perhaps then , the injuries to the Rav 4 become more credible, IF the simplest possible credible explanation is excluding dissonance within the group (some people insist there was) or an accident; which actually could be the simplest credible explanation excluding the fact that there were people other than the 9 involved.  twitch7

But, if other regular humans are out of the equation like monsters, aliens and the military, then the Dyatlov group are responsible for their own deaths. Simplest Possible Credible Explanation.



Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 17, 2019, 03:05:47 PM
Why did they leave the tent and camp?

The fact that most of them left without their shoes suggests that there was some kind of immediate and significant threat to life?

Or could there have been a perception of an immediate threat to life?

Or they left because they had somehow become intoxicated/drugged and lost their senses?

Or they left knowing what they were doing as some kind of prank or test?  Maybe it was a survival test to go to the tree line and back without their gear?

Or maybe there was some kind of victimisation and bullying with one or more group members and that person lost it and ran into the night without their gear and the rest went after them immediately and before they realised they were all in trouble.

Or maybe for some reason one of the group attacked them with a knife threatening to kill them and they all scattered in different directions?

Any thoughts?

Regards
Star man

Yes My thoughts are this. We are dealing with all these points throughout the Forum. You have introduced them again here  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 17, 2019, 03:07:00 PM
So the point of this thread is to try to establish if there could be a simple “normal “ explanation by considering any simple options.

I am not trying to rule out other theories which are well represented in other threads. But is it possible to explain DPI using simple explanations? The interesting bit is if an exhaustive consideration of simple options there isn’t any that can explain it, or at least no simple explanation that is credible.

So- is there a simple explanation for why they might have left the tent with no footwear (other than Semyon, Thibo and Rustems single boot)?

Regards
Star man

Unfortunately there are no simple options.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 17, 2019, 03:22:44 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on April 17, 2019, 03:38:42 PM
If we are discussing simple explanations and motives, when it comes to unvoluntary deaths, statistically the most likely options involve money (highly unlikely in this case) or love affair. There could have been some twisted stuff going on until somebody got angry...Given the profiles of the hikers and life stories, I would not be surprised if Semyon an Tibo were a gay couple, the others saw them doing some funny stuff so the two decided to play a revenge prank on them and things got nasty, who knows....Other version may include any of the girls and more than one man who fancied them.

Please bear in mind that it is a far-fetched speculation at best.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Marchesk on April 17, 2019, 06:22:26 PM
As goes the DP case, nothing is simple.  Most of them were actually dressed quite warm, minus two individuals that had their clothing salvaged.  For instance, several had on their valenki boots which would be the warmest footwear they had.  Their valenki boots were fur-lined wool that was dry compared to their single layer leather boots that were soaked to the bone.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Makes me wonder how Zina could have succumbed to hypothermia. Slobodin may have passed out because of his head injury and then froze to death. But Zina doesn't have an injury that would explain why she fell where she did. There doesn't seem to be consistent reports about the weather that night. How cold would it have to be for some of the better dressed ones like Zina to die of hypothermia that night?

There's so much in this case that makes me scratch my head.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Marchesk on April 17, 2019, 06:28:40 PM
I don't think an in-group fight would explain all of them perishing. Why would they all leave the tent in the situation? Why wouldn't cooler heads break up the fight? Why wouldn't they return to the tent? If the conditions that night were bad enough outside that returning to the tent was an impossibility, then having a serious brawl without it cooler heads prevailing makes no sense.

And we don't have any evidence that they were on the verge or murdering one another over some resentment or love interest. That's pretty extreme.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 17, 2019, 11:50:34 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 18, 2019, 07:43:37 AM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 18, 2019, 07:52:16 AM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

Totally plausible without getting completely dragged down trying to explain every tiny factoid.    thumb1

Is it what happened, or similar to what happened?.....  No idea, but I have loooong thought fighting among themselves is a real possibility.   I do know that Russian DP gurus will tell you absolutely not, these were the kindest most innocent 'kids' on the planet and it is not in the nature of Russians to act in such a manor.   rolleyes1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Marchesk on April 18, 2019, 08:27:16 AM
Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

The cooler heads would be the ones not involved in the fight. So if you have nine people and two or three start fighting, then it's the other six breaking it up and telling them to calm down. Even if the fight spilled outside of the tent, I just don't see how all nine of them end up outside of the tent hundreds of meters away. That would require an all out battle where different sides form into groups chasing one another down the mountain side in the cold, windy, rock strewn darkness, during the middle of meal right after they composed a fun pamphlet. That would have been one hell of a fight! Like a Game of Thrones throw down if you stuck some random Lannisters, Starks and Dothraki in a tent together, and on group starting insulting the other two.

As for Zina's injury, I'm not aware that it would have caused any brain, spinal cord damage, or blood loss. At least the coroner didn't think so.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 18, 2019, 09:53:43 AM
I enjoy your comments Loose Cannon. Lol. Its true, the Devil (or "Superman") is in the details. And I've always been a stickler for them. Sometimes I should just resign myself to the "KISS" philosophy on life, right?

I was simply being speculative about the "cool heads" based on personalities of the 9 - and am very interested in the opinions of others on this forum, especially regarding the "human factors" of the case, i.e. the psychology of it as well as the relationships between them. I like to see where the majority lies on topics, analyzing "trends" especially amongst the experts here.

For example,  Rustem and Zina seem to be peacekeepers in my mind. I wonder what everyone else thinks? Is it a coincidence they were found dead so close together? Is it a coincidence Zina and Igor were found close together and that Igor had a picture of her on him?

I don't think six people broke up the possible fight. I think we're at least minus 2 from the get go.

I'm not saying the bruise caused Zina to die, it simply contributed to incapacitation and thus hypothermia.
"In the lumbar region of the right lateral surface of the trunk, right side of the abdomen, a skin of bright red color in the form of a strip measuring 29 x 6 cm".
That's pretty sizeable. Could it not have winded her?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 18, 2019, 10:57:10 AM
Quote
Igor had a picture of her on him?

If I recall correctly, the picture was found either in his coat, or in his trousers back at the tent and not on his persons.  Makes no difference really.... 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 18, 2019, 12:49:06 PM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

I like your analysis.  I think it is worth exploring the psychology of the group.  Natural alliances.  What cliques are there?

Will post again soon.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 18, 2019, 12:50:14 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

Totally plausible without getting completely dragged down trying to explain every tiny factoid.    thumb1

Is it what happened, or similar to what happened?.....  No idea, but I have loooong thought fighting among themselves is a real possibility.   I do know that Russian DP gurus will tell you absolutely not, these were the kindest most innocent 'kids' on the planet and it is not in the nature of Russians to act in such a manor.   rolleyes1

Yeah I think it's worth exploring further.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 18, 2019, 01:05:51 PM
Sweet validation!! Lol. Thank you Star Man - you're the peace-keeper in this forum.

I do look forward to your post.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on April 18, 2019, 01:22:37 PM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

I like your analysis.  I think it is worth exploring the psychology of the group.  Natural alliances.  What cliques are there?

Will post again soon.

Regards

Star man

I agree the psychological review of the group could give us more understanding of what may have happened. One of the interesting aspects (for me) of the case is the internal divide of the group. It happened eventually due to still unknown reasons.  Even from the photos it seems that Tibo and Semyon were more extroverted and more easy-going with the girls... I wonder how an official group leader Igor would react to a new person with more experience and (possibly) more popularity...or would it trigger a little of envy and jealousy? It may seem like an unimportant thing, but in stressed situations the emotions tend to overcome the rationality (there might be exception of course - very calm people, psychopaths, trained soldiers...) Maybe the dispersion of the corpses somehow reflects the relationships inside the group. Also, I would assume that a reaction of 22 y.o. student to a life-threatening situation would be different to a war veteran (Semyon). 

Any further thoughts?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 18, 2019, 03:39:31 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

No evidence of any of the Dyatlov Group being DRUNK and DISORDERLY. And they were not KIDS.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 18, 2019, 03:41:51 PM
If we are discussing simple explanations and motives, when it comes to unvoluntary deaths, statistically the most likely options involve money (highly unlikely in this case) or love affair. There could have been some twisted stuff going on until somebody got angry...Given the profiles of the hikers and life stories, I would not be surprised if Semyon an Tibo were a gay couple, the others saw them doing some funny stuff so the two decided to play a revenge prank on them and things got nasty, who knows....Other version may include any of the girls and more than one man who fancied them.

Please bear in mind that it is a far-fetched speculation at best.

This doesnt sound very simple. But its certainly extremely far fetched.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 18, 2019, 03:45:12 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

This doesnt sound like a very simple explanation. How can you know what any of the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 18, 2019, 03:47:20 PM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

So you know what the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 18, 2019, 03:51:27 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

Totally plausible without getting completely dragged down trying to explain every tiny factoid.    thumb1

Is it what happened, or similar to what happened?.....  No idea, but I have loooong thought fighting among themselves is a real possibility.   I do know that Russian DP gurus will tell you absolutely not, these were the kindest most innocent 'kids' on the planet and it is not in the nature of Russians to act in such a manor.   rolleyes1

I would say totally inplausible.  There is nothing in any of the findings of the search parties that lead one to suspect any fighting amongst the Dyatlov Group. And some of the injuries are like MUTILATIONS not caused by any other human, etc etc.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 18, 2019, 03:56:32 PM
I enjoy your comments Loose Cannon. Lol. Its true, the Devil (or "Superman") is in the details. And I've always been a stickler for them. Sometimes I should just resign myself to the "KISS" philosophy on life, right?

I was simply being speculative about the "cool heads" based on personalities of the 9 - and am very interested in the opinions of others on this forum, especially regarding the "human factors" of the case, i.e. the psychology of it as well as the relationships between them. I like to see where the majority lies on topics, analyzing "trends" especially amongst the experts here.

For example,  Rustem and Zina seem to be peacekeepers in my mind. I wonder what everyone else thinks? Is it a coincidence they were found dead so close together? Is it a coincidence Zina and Igor were found close together and that Igor had a picture of her on him?

I don't think six people broke up the possible fight. I think we're at least minus 2 from the get go.

I'm not saying the bruise caused Zina to die, it simply contributed to incapacitation and thus hypothermia.
"In the lumbar region of the right lateral surface of the trunk, right side of the abdomen, a skin of bright red color in the form of a strip measuring 29 x 6 cm".
That's pretty sizeable. Could it not have winded her?

You did read all the Autopsy reports presumably. And Dubinina's injuries could not have been caused by another human. Nothing shouts out fight about this Dyatlov Case.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 18, 2019, 03:59:45 PM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

I like your analysis.  I think it is worth exploring the psychology of the group.  Natural alliances.  What cliques are there?

Will post again soon.

Regards

Star man

I agree the psychological review of the group could give us more understanding of what may have happened. One of the interesting aspects (for me) of the case is the internal divide of the group. It happened eventually due to still unknown reasons.  Even from the photos it seems that Tibo and Semyon were more extroverted and more easy-going with the girls... I wonder how an official group leader Igor would react to a new person with more experience and (possibly) more popularity...or would it trigger a little of envy and jealousy? It may seem like an unimportant thing, but in stressed situations the emotions tend to overcome the rationality (there might be exception of course - very calm people, psychopaths, trained soldiers...) Maybe the dispersion of the corpses somehow reflects the relationships inside the group. Also, I would assume that a reaction of 22 y.o. student to a life-threatening situation would be different to a war veteran (Semyon). 

Any further thoughts?

The Dyatlov Group were mature people and experienced outdoors people all of sound mind.  There is absolutely no evidence of any friction between them or of any fighting.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 18, 2019, 04:07:13 PM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

I like your analysis.  I think it is worth exploring the psychology of the group.  Natural alliances.  What cliques are there?

Will post again soon.

Regards

Star man

I agree the psychological review of the group could give us more understanding of what may have happened. One of the interesting aspects (for me) of the case is the internal divide of the group. It happened eventually due to still unknown reasons.  Even from the photos it seems that Tibo and Semyon were more extroverted and more easy-going with the girls... I wonder how an official group leader Igor would react to a new person with more experience and (possibly) more popularity...or would it trigger a little of envy and jealousy? It may seem like an unimportant thing, but in stressed situations the emotions tend to overcome the rationality (there might be exception of course - very calm people, psychopaths, trained soldiers...) Maybe the dispersion of the corpses somehow reflects the relationships inside the group. Also, I would assume that a reaction of 22 y.o. student to a life-threatening situation would be different to a war veteran (Semyon). 

Any further thoughts?

I think you raise some good points.   I don't profess to be an expert on psychology, but I have some experience of group dynamics, teams and emotional intelligence.  I also have some experience of the psychological factors that affect risk perception and some of these are relevant to group dynamics.

N
Anyway, My first impression is that Semyon and Thibo are similar too.  Don't know why, but I make the same conclusion and they are found together in the same group (rav 4).

So what are the different character types present:

Natural Leaders, alphas? Vs appointed leader
Extroverts and big Egos
Introverts and those happy to sit back and be led by others
Experience vs inexperience
Controlling personalities
Rule keepers and rule breakers
Victims

I am sure there are more types.  Please feel free to add.  Like I said I'm not an expert so feel free to pile in.

Within a group there will be natural leaders.  Dyatlov may have been one of these, but also he is young and less experienced, and if he has affections for Zina this will affect his natural behaviour and possibly his judgement.  There is evidence of this in Zina's diary where she says he his rude and she doesn't recognise him.  This isn't good.  Is he keeping his mind on the job or is he distracted and trying to impress?  People in this frame of mind are more likely to take greater risks.

Semyon is older.  He is also a leader, but with more experience and less testosterone.  He will likely have a cool head, but he may find it difficult to take orders from Dyatlov.  So I think there would be a natural rift there.  Semyon also seems like someone who has confidence and likes to have fun.  Which is why I think he is a natural fit with Thibo who appears to have a similar affinity for fun and joking.  I don't think Thibo stands out as wanting to lead the group though.

Rustem seems quieter and more introvert, but seems confident.  I think he is happy to follow and go along with rest, but will join in the fun up to a point.  He seems a bit more serious.

Kolevatov, seems quiet and confident, but resourceful.  He doesn't seem the type to join in too much fun. I think he seems quite a serious person.

Yuris K - he is young and intelligent, but smaller and in my mind could easily be targeted as the victim of the group.  In other words an easy target for jokes, larks and pranks.

Luda is quiet, composed and from what I have read quick tongued.  She also tires easily and from the diaries I get the impression this angers some members of the group as she does not help with all the tasks.

Zina, like Luda is quiet and composed. 

I think given that the two girls are among 7 males and it's 1959, they would probably take on a more sensible and quiter role within the group.  Probably more peace keepers, using Clacon's words.

Yuris D is a big fellow, but probably quiet and calm and I suspect he has a strong sense of purpose.  He is unlikely the sort to be intimidated by others and may even take on the role of protector.  He may have decided to take Yuris K under his wing.

So I have just basically brain dumped my thoughts there and immediately there is an interesting pattern:

Semyon is older, wiser and calming.  The two girls will be sensible and peace keepers.  Kolevatove is quiet, confident and less of a joker ( I.e more sensible).  There is a natural group there I think.  Rustem could probably fit into this group too.  Thibo isn't such a natural fit, but may be closer to Semyon so would tag along with him.

There is also a potential group with Dyatlov and Zina given their potential relationship?

Those in opposition:

Dyatlov vs Semyon and Kolevatov

So I think the group were far from harmonious.  It might only take one step too far to cause a fracture and a fight.

In the evening Otorten, there is an entry about an Armenian Quiz.  Can 9 hikers survive with two blankets or words to that effect.  What if that was a reference to some prank they were playing?  Maybe they kicked Yuris K out if the tent without any decent clothing.  Intended as a joke for a short time, but when they go to let him back in he has gone.  The jokes have gone too far.  Something has snapped.  He walks down the slope and intends to light a fire.  When they the others realise he is nowhere to be found the race off down the slop searching for him.  They know he is going to be in trouble if he doesn't return to the tent quickly. The reaming group argue and fight.  Then finding their senses they split up to look for him.  Then the rav 4 have the accident, and the rest is history. 

Still difficult to explain the shoes though?

Happy to listen to other thoughts.

Regards

Star man






Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 18, 2019, 04:10:33 PM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

I like your analysis.  I think it is worth exploring the psychology of the group.  Natural alliances.  What cliques are there?

Will post again soon.

Regards

Star man

I agree the psychological review of the group could give us more understanding of what may have happened. One of the interesting aspects (for me) of the case is the internal divide of the group. It happened eventually due to still unknown reasons.  Even from the photos it seems that Tibo and Semyon were more extroverted and more easy-going with the girls... I wonder how an official group leader Igor would react to a new person with more experience and (possibly) more popularity...or would it trigger a little of envy and jealousy? It may seem like an unimportant thing, but in stressed situations the emotions tend to overcome the rationality (there might be exception of course - very calm people, psychopaths, trained soldiers...) Maybe the dispersion of the corpses somehow reflects the relationships inside the group. Also, I would assume that a reaction of 22 y.o. student to a life-threatening situation would be different to a war veteran (Semyon). 

Any further thoughts?

The Dyatlov Group were mature people and experienced outdoors people all of sound mind.  There is absolutely no evidence of any friction between them or of any fighting.

I disagree.  There is plenty of evidence of friction in the diaries.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 18, 2019, 04:22:36 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

This doesnt sound like a very simple explanation. How can you know what any of the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ?

The diaries provide some clues.  Also the photos.  60% of communication is visual.  Also people in a group often take on roles in the social hierarchy that are common.  People are basically programmed to think in a particular way.  System 1 thinking.  The Abilene paradox.  It's behaviour that we all learn as children, and then take for granted later in life.  The evening Otorten provides a glimpse about what the author was thinking.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 18, 2019, 04:45:11 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

Totally plausible without getting completely dragged down trying to explain every tiny factoid.    thumb1

Is it what happened, or similar to what happened?.....  No idea, but I have loooong thought fighting among themselves is a real possibility.   I do know that Russian DP gurus will tell you absolutely not, these were the kindest most innocent 'kids' on the planet and it is not in the nature of Russians to act in such a manor.   rolleyes1

I would say totally inplausible.  There is nothing in any of the findings of the search parties that lead one to suspect any fighting amongst the Dyatlov Group. And some of the injuries are like MUTILATIONS not caused by any other human, etc etc.


No mutilations, sorry. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 18, 2019, 04:45:45 PM
Reiterating ad nauseum here but to start: if the Dyatlov group were responsible for their own demise, it was accidental. I DON'T think anyone set out that night with the intent to kill anyone else. However, infighting and a physical brawl between some members for me, for sure is a possibility. This could have led to incapacitation, which led to death by exposure. If they hadn't been in the environment they were in....they probably would have survived.

That being said....if they were responsible for their deaths, without any external factors, we must look to basic human psychology and what could motivate someone to break social norms (i.e. the Simplest Possible Credible Psychological Explanation). The same is the motivation for killing another human being and here gypsy is correct: they can all be boiled down to 3 motivations:

1) greed
2) lust/love
3) pursuit of power or control

We have at least 2 and 3 brewing in this situation, as robbery (greed) is not likely.

Of course, we have to remember that individuals are so complex, this may be oversimplification, but I feel like this thread has an Occam's Razor feel to it - the simplest, most basic explanation is often the most correct.

So we take into consideration the fact that tensions are high. How could they not be, they have been out in the frigid wilderness on their own for 4 days (?), cold, dirty, irritable....the trail they are on along the river is impossible to follow  - there is evidence in diaries of squabbling - we can see a division between personalities. Perhaps add in alcohol and the fact that "needs" other than shelter and food (which are scant),  are not being met (possible human motivation #2), competition for control over a tenuous situation (#3) and I would say you have a recipe for a fight.

Marchesk - no I don't think this explanation is a contributor to ALL of their deaths, especially the Rav 4, but it could at least be the explanation as to why they were there in the first place. I don't think they all left the tent at the same time. And perhaps that's why, the "cooler heads" were not around to stop the fight?

Interesting side note - I do wonder who those "cooler heads" would have been?

The biggest question here (and a point you have brought up before which sticks me every time is) why did they not return to the tent in as short a time as they could have?? (If they could have)???

I would also consider that huge bruise on Zina's side as a possible contributing factor to her death maybe??

I like your analysis.  I think it is worth exploring the psychology of the group.  Natural alliances.  What cliques are there?

Will post again soon.

Regards

Star man

I agree the psychological review of the group could give us more understanding of what may have happened. One of the interesting aspects (for me) of the case is the internal divide of the group. It happened eventually due to still unknown reasons.  Even from the photos it seems that Tibo and Semyon were more extroverted and more easy-going with the girls... I wonder how an official group leader Igor would react to a new person with more experience and (possibly) more popularity...or would it trigger a little of envy and jealousy? It may seem like an unimportant thing, but in stressed situations the emotions tend to overcome the rationality (there might be exception of course - very calm people, psychopaths, trained soldiers...) Maybe the dispersion of the corpses somehow reflects the relationships inside the group. Also, I would assume that a reaction of 22 y.o. student to a life-threatening situation would be different to a war veteran (Semyon). 

Any further thoughts?

The Dyatlov Group were mature people and experienced outdoors people all of sound mind.  There is absolutely no evidence of any friction between them or of any fighting.

Completely implausible and close minded. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Aspen on April 19, 2019, 04:08:27 AM
Here is my two cents:  the simplest credible explanation must take the context and important established facts into account.

First, about the diaries, I don’t see any real demonstration in the diaries of strong hatred towards anyone.  These were young people.  Youth often express themselves with exaggerated banter and playful dramatization.  The satirical Otorten document is an example of that.  I don’t recall the mention of “traitors”.  But if there is, it could be interpreted as a joke.  Who hasn’t been with friends where a lot of dramatized cursing and ranting is made following some kind of mishap, as a way of making harmless fun of the situation. 

The photos with the burned jacket are obviously posed with a humoristic intent.  There are so many photos of them laughing and smiling…  If any serious friction arose, I think these educated young people would have the social skills to turn it into something funny and to keep the peace in a situation where they utterly depended on each other.

Now about the context on the night of February 1, they must have been exhausted after skiing up there and all the work required to dig up the platform and set up the tent in a storm.  They were camping without heat on an open and isolated mountain ridge in a stormy night, it was really dark, zero visibility, and very cold at minus 30 Celsius. 

Those of you who have done this kind of winter camping would know that you don’t have the energy to pick up fights in such situation.  Most importantly, you are intensely aware at all times that your survival depends on group cooperation and cohesion.  So you let frictions slide.  Nobody would run out of the tent without shoes or gloves and blindly walk for a mile in the cold dark storm because of some bickering. 

Besides all that, they had a common goal: to get their class 3 certification.  That was important to them, and they wouldn’t blow that away with fighting that would put everybody’s life at risk.  If a major disappointment arose for someone during that excursion, they would certainly think it better to deal with their opponent or lost love after the excursion ended.  After all they were in this for only 2 or 3 weeks.  That is not enough time for developing uncontrollably strong hatred against anyone.

The facts are that their tracks show they did not run away from the tent, but they walked besides each other.  That means they all had to have left the tent at the same time.  And that they counted on each other for support, physically and/or morally.  They probably were injured to some extent at the tent site, which is why they left it, and had to slowly walk away.

Other facts that must be accounted for, is that other witnesses observed strange lights in the area at the time, some radioactivity was detected on the victims, and the investigators were ordered to stop the investigation without explanation and evidence was taken away by higher authorities.

Some of Dyatlov group injuries could be the result of breaking firewood and digging a snow den with bare hands.  I often am surprised when I go firewood cutting as to how many bruises and scratches I end up with.  I can’t imagine how hard it would have been for the Dyatlov group to try to find sparse firewood in the dark, branches poking you in the face, without tools, freezing bare hands, etc.  Some of the saplings they broke for the den looked to be 6 cm or two inches thick.  I am amazed they were able to break that, I know how difficult it can be.  It could well be that the large bruise on Zina’s back was the result of such work, as when trying to break those larger saplings if your grasp slips they bounce back and hit you hard.

Some would have been more injured by the event at the tent, than others, especially the two Yuris who apparently died first.  It could be that the other 7 then went on to dig the den, which collapsed on 4 of them.   Zina, Rustic and Igor tried to dig them out, but were unable to because collapsed snow hardens quickly.  Their only remaining hope for digging out their friends was to go back to the tent to retrieve the ice axe.  But they were too exhausted and cold to make it.   In my opinion the entire group remained together as much as they could to the end, their main desire was to save each other.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Marchesk on April 19, 2019, 06:03:39 AM
Some would have been more injured by the event at the tent, than others, especially the two Yuris who apparently died first.  It could be that the other 7 then went on to dig the den, which collapsed on 4 of them.   Zina, Rustic and Igor tried to dig them out, but were unable to because collapsed snow hardens quickly.  Their only remaining hope for digging out their friends was to go back to the tent to retrieve the ice axe.  But they were too exhausted and cold to make it.   In my opinion the entire group remained together as much as they could to the end, their main desire was to save each other.

I hadn't thought of that as the reason for Zina, Rustem and Igor heading back to the tent. But that makes sense because of the desperation of trying to save their friends, and it doesn't require going back into the tent, which they abandoned for whatever reason. Going back for the ice axe makes a lot of sense. But then, why didn't they just take it with them if they knew they had to survive the night in the woods?

The fundamental mystery of what happened at the tent remains. But I agree with you, a fight amongst the group just doesn't add up to them abandoning the tent in such conditions.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 19, 2019, 07:45:20 AM
The most likely scenario for young people to escape from the tent is fear. But this is a great fear. Teenagers must have heard some weird terrible sounds first. Then they made cuts in the tent to see the source of these sounds !!! They all looked at the source of these sounds with horror. 9 people settled in 4 meters. A total of 4.5 meters each from 50cm. They've watched out in a cramped state !!! In the meantime, while the boots should have been marshalled in regular order ....In the meantime, the bots must have been crushed. The boots are on the left side of the tent ... on the side of the cuts ...Meanwhile, young people may have seen some terrible images. That's why they wanted to cut the tent and escape from the horror and horror. And they decided to go back to the cedar tree and not return the fire for a long time. Because they were gonna die from the cold. But before returning to the cedar, they wanted to make sure that the horrible images had gone away. And when they didn't see anything, they decided to go back. But when the group split, superman attacked them. Igor Rustem Zina 2 Yuri Kolevatov Semyon Tibo and finally Dubinina .....Important note: The reason why they go to the tree and look at the tent should be: Terrible images must be very close to the tent. It would be pointless if they came to the tree. Without looking at the tree to the side of the tent to see whether the images.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Morski on April 19, 2019, 09:06:20 AM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

Totally plausible without getting completely dragged down trying to explain every tiny factoid.    thumb1

Is it what happened, or similar to what happened?.....  No idea, but I have loooong thought fighting among themselves is a real possibility.   I do know that Russian DP gurus will tell you absolutely not, these were the kindest most innocent 'kids' on the planet and it is not in the nature of Russians to act in such a manor.   rolleyes1

I would say totally inplausible.  There is nothing in any of the findings of the search parties that lead one to suspect any fighting amongst the Dyatlov Group. And some of the injuries are like MUTILATIONS not caused by any other human, etc etc.

And the reason, of course, is Yeti, no?  whist1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 19, 2019, 09:25:05 AM
There was no possible attack in the tent. If there was a direct attack, the youngsters would never return to the tent again. But they showed great courage and tried to return to the tent. Breaking 5-6 cm tree branches at minus 20 degrees is not a normal person's work. The explanation for this is that in moments of fear and terror, people get 2-3 times more powerful. Semyon predicted the events of Tibo and Rüstem without escaping the tent. And they tried to wear their clothes and boots.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Aspen on April 20, 2019, 03:07:51 AM
Marchesk asked above:
"Going back for the ice axe makes a lot of sense. But then, why didn't they just take it with them if they knew they had to survive the night in the woods?"

Obviously they didn’t take anything with them when they fled the tent. 
I believe that something hovered above the tent emitting some kind of radiation that caused burns, and impaired the group mentally and physically to various degrees for each of them.  Perhaps they didn’t grab their warm clothes on the way out because they felt overheated from the radiation, which lasted while they walked down the hill.  Perhaps their metal tools were too hot to touch from the radiation, so that could explain why they discarded them at the tent.

Perhaps some of them had been blinded by the rays, which would be another reason why their friends walked by their side, perhaps holding hands.  So, this was not really a ‘calm and orderly’ walk down the hill.  Although terrified, this group was slowed by injuries and impaired faculties and had to support each other.  They regained their ability to think more clearly once they were out of range of the radiation.

Why is it that out of the ravine 4 victims, 3 of them seem to be missing their eyes, except for Tibo.  Although Tibo’s face was also in the water, it appears that he still has his eyelids and eyes on the post-mortem photo.  It may be that the other 3 received radiation injuries to their eyes or eyelids, and these damaged tissues desintegrated faster.

I also wonder about Zina’s position when she died.  It was not a completely a fetal position on her side.  In fact, her torso is twisted so that her face is down in the snow, as if in her last moment she was trying to protect her face.  Perhaps she realized that the ‘thing’ was still hovering in the area.

Igor in his last moment seemed to be in a defensive position, with his arms raised across his chest.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Jacques-Emile on April 21, 2019, 06:00:22 PM
All I read is though creative writing group is given a 20-word start to a fiction story, and write an ending.  There sounds like no evidence needed to end everyone's story, that is everybody is as correct as every other.  People just won't admit that they are writing fiction.
I think there was a hovering metal object with a bright ray of VISIBLE light and loud AUDIBLE sound with deavening noise.  The people came out from planet Игорьcикорский whose people built devil killing hovering craft which sped off later.  Yes you can read about these ships called from Сикорскийвертолет.
All is out.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 22, 2019, 02:11:41 AM
If there was no avalanche (not credible givent incline and small amount of snow), no katana tic wind ( not credible given the position and forces that would be exhorted on the tent), no outworldy or cryptozoology explanation, no military involvement, no other outside involvement it seems that the more likely explanation for the DPI is that the events were a result of the tourists own actions?

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Marchesk on April 22, 2019, 11:43:29 AM
If there was no avalanche (not credible givent incline and small amount of snow), no katana tic wind ( not credible given the position and forces that would be exhorted on the tent), no outworldy or cryptozoology explanation, no military involvement, no other outside involvement it seems that the more likely explanation for the DPI is that the events were a result of the tourists own actions?

If you can discount any other natural explanations, the stove, ethanol poisoning and something nobody's thought of. But this is assuming we really can exclude avalanche/snow slab, military accident and outside involvement, which I don't think we can.

In my view, the evidence is simply inconclusive. It doesn't rule in favor of any one theory, nor does it rule out most theories. A lot of the evidence can be questioned or interpreted in different ways depending on which theory you favor.

But sure, if we could exclude all the others, then an internal dispute is all we're left with. I just have a hard time believing they all leave the tent over a fight and end up down slope, unable to make their way back.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 22, 2019, 12:48:26 PM
It depends if you believe they exited the tent at the same time...and I suppose that there is evidence that at least 2 were better clothed and so possibly were not in the tent when the "incident that drove them from the tent" occurred?

Also, I think Star Man had implied that maybe one or two had gone off in a huff - which may be possible within this infighting scenario too, right?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Marchesk on April 22, 2019, 02:45:33 PM
It depends if you believe they exited the tent at the same time...and I suppose that there is evidence that at least 2 were better clothed and so possibly were not in the tent when the "incident that drove them from the tent" occurred?

Also, I think Star Man had implied that maybe one or two had gone off in a huff - which may be possible within this infighting scenario too, right?


So how does this scenario play out? An argument breaks out in the tent, one of the Yuri's cuts the tent in anger and the other one follows him out. They decide to go down the mountain to the woods to cool off, where they start a fire. Meanwhile, Igor, Rustem and Zina are pissed at the tent being ruined, so after some discussion and maybe further disagreement with the other four, they go down the mountain to confront the Yuris. Fisticuffs ensue and things the fight takes a deadly turn after someone bludgeons Rustem over the head with a cedar branch. One of the Yuris is pushed into a the fire. Another is restrained by sitting on his stomach.

The rav4 group finally comes down to check on things, and they break up the fight, chasing off Igor's group. The fire has been put out and the Yuris are not in good shape. So the rav4 go to make a snow den to wait out the night. But then Igor and Zina ambush them in revenge for Rustem, who has wandered off uphill and passed out. The fight near the entrance of the snow den causes a collapse into the ravine.

Igor and Zina are able to escape it and head back to the tent. But they're not in good enough condition to make it at this point.


Does something along those lines sound believable?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 22, 2019, 03:19:27 PM
If there was no avalanche (not credible givent incline and small amount of snow), no katana tic wind ( not credible given the position and forces that would be exhorted on the tent), no outworldy or cryptozoology explanation, no military involvement, no other outside involvement it seems that the more likely explanation for the DPI is that the events were a result of the tourists own actions?

If you can discount any other natural explanations, the stove, ethanol poisoning and something nobody's thought of. But this is assuming we really can exclude avalanche/snow slab, military accident and outside involvement, which I don't think we can.

In my view, the evidence is simply inconclusive. It doesn't rule in favor of any one theory, nor does it rule out most theories. A lot of the evidence can be questioned or interpreted in different ways depending on which theory you favor.

But sure, if we could exclude all the others, then an internal dispute is all we're left with. I just have a hard time believing they all leave the tent over a fight and end up down slope, unable to make their way back.

Of course you are right.  The evidence is patchy and can be used to fit different theories.  It is difficult to think that they left the tent without some external influence, especially the shoes.  That's what I find hard to square. 

Even so, the case files state there were no signs of anyone else.  That's what I'm trying to understand.  Is there a scenario that could explain them leaving the camp without their shoes and outer clothing, just as a result of their own behaviours or decisions?

There were tensions within the group.  9 people on a hard trek and living toe to toe in a tent is likely to create friction.  It's just human nature.  It only takes one of them to have psychotic undertones.

I wouldn't rule out methanol or poisoning of some kind.  That would be a simple and credible explanation. 

Is it possible that they all were poisoned with some kind of radioactive substance?  Yuris K and Kolevatov were suppose to have worked with radiation?  Is it possible that he had some dangerous radioactive material and because he felt he was being victimised he contaminated the food with it?  How would that affect the body?

Maybe they realised, or maybe he even told them and a fight broke out at the camp and then the events escalated from there.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 22, 2019, 04:05:50 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

This doesnt sound like a very simple explanation. How can you know what any of the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ?

The diaries provide some clues.  Also the photos.  60% of communication is visual.  Also people in a group often take on roles in the social hierarchy that are common.  People are basically programmed to think in a particular way.  System 1 thinking.  The Abilene paradox.  It's behaviour that we all learn as children, and then take for granted later in life.  The evening Otorten provides a glimpse about what the author was thinking.

Regards

Star man

People are not Computers. People are not programmed to think in a particular way. You say that there are clues of friction in the diaries. Only clues  !  ?  Actually it is not even evidence.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 22, 2019, 04:07:48 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

Totally plausible without getting completely dragged down trying to explain every tiny factoid.    thumb1

Is it what happened, or similar to what happened?.....  No idea, but I have loooong thought fighting among themselves is a real possibility.   I do know that Russian DP gurus will tell you absolutely not, these were the kindest most innocent 'kids' on the planet and it is not in the nature of Russians to act in such a manor.   rolleyes1

I would say totally inplausible.  There is nothing in any of the findings of the search parties that lead one to suspect any fighting amongst the Dyatlov Group. And some of the injuries are like MUTILATIONS not caused by any other human, etc etc.


No mutilations, sorry.

Like Mutilations.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 22, 2019, 04:13:56 PM
If there was no avalanche (not credible givent incline and small amount of snow), no katana tic wind ( not credible given the position and forces that would be exhorted on the tent), no outworldy or cryptozoology explanation, no military involvement, no other outside involvement it seems that the more likely explanation for the DPI is that the events were a result of the tourists own actions?

Regards

Star man

And does that include the very mysterious abandonment of their means of survival the Tent and Clothing. And does that include  the injuries that could not have been caused by any other Human etc etc etc etc.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 22, 2019, 10:45:49 PM
Friends, this isn't a simple thing. Let's just say this first. See injuries !!! These are not the things a person can do ... So simple fight like a fight avalanche poisoning never explains this event. This event cannot be explained for simple reasons. This is not possible. The young men left the tent with great fear. And they wanted to go back to the tent with great courage not to die from the cold. Because maybe they were hoping Superman wouldn't kill them. But Superman wanted to take them to his side. He must have deliberately picked them. And most probably the superman still continues to take the people he has chosen in the world. I think Semyon Kolevatov and Dubinina are against the superman. So Superman was furious with them. And I hurt them ... As I said, this event is certainly not able to explain for simple reasons ..... So look around your head for simple reasons to no avail.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 22, 2019, 11:33:50 PM
It depends if you believe they exited the tent at the same time...and I suppose that there is evidence that at least 2 were better clothed and so possibly were not in the tent when the "incident that drove them from the tent" occurred?

Also, I think Star Man had implied that maybe one or two had gone off in a huff - which may be possible within this infighting scenario too, right?


So how does this scenario play out? An argument breaks out in the tent, one of the Yuri's cuts the tent in anger and the other one follows him out. They decide to go down the mountain to the woods to cool off, where they start a fire. Meanwhile, Igor, Rustem and Zina are pissed at the tent being ruined, so after some discussion and maybe further disagreement with the other four, they go down the mountain to confront the Yuris. Fisticuffs ensue and things the fight takes a deadly turn after someone bludgeons Rustem over the head with a cedar branch. One of the Yuris is pushed into a the fire. Another is restrained by sitting on his stomach.

The rav4 group finally comes down to check on things, and they break up the fight, chasing off Igor's group. The fire has been put out and the Yuris are not in good shape. So the rav4 go to make a snow den to wait out the night. But then Igor and Zina ambush them in revenge for Rustem, who has wandered off uphill and passed out. The fight near the entrance of the snow den causes a collapse into the ravine.

Igor and Zina are able to escape it and head back to the tent. But they're not in good enough condition to make it at this point.


Does something along those lines sound believable?

I think the difficult thing to explain is why there wasn’t more of them wearing boots.  Semyon and Thibo had boots and better clothes so in the scenario you outlined it would seem that they left the tent in a more orderly controlled way or they were already dressed.  Maybe the sequence of events didn’t happen exactly the way you say but yes that is the sort of thing we are talking about,
Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 22, 2019, 11:46:02 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

This doesnt sound like a very simple explanation. How can you know what any of the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ?

The diaries provide some clues.  Also the photos.  60% of communication is visual.  Also people in a group often take on roles in the social hierarchy that are common.  People are basically programmed to think in a particular way.  System 1 thinking.  The Abilene paradox.  It's behaviour that we all learn as children, and then take for granted later in life.  The evening Otorten provides a glimpse about what the author was thinking.

Regards

Star man

People are not Computers. People are not programmed to think in a particular way. You say that there are clues of friction in the diaries. Only clues  !  ?  Actually it is not even evidence.

Yes people are programmed.  People basically have two modes - system 1 and system 2 thinking.  System 2 is used to learn.  In other words to program system 1. System 2 is slow and cumbersome.  System 1 is sub conscious.  Solve the following 2 problems in your head:

10x6=
567x 398=

The first answer you provide is pre programmed.

The second will likely be system 2 in operation.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 23, 2019, 04:38:40 AM
If there was no avalanche (not credible givent incline and small amount of snow), no katana tic wind ( not credible given the position and forces that would be exhorted on the tent), no outworldy or cryptozoology explanation, no military involvement, no other outside involvement it seems that the more likely explanation for the DPI is that the events were a result of the tourists own actions?

Regards

Star man

And does that include the very mysterious abandonment of their means of survival the Tent and Clothing. And does that include  the injuries that could not have been caused by any other Human etc etc etc etc.

Yes in terms of this topic it does.  It is an assumption of the topic.  Whatever happened, it was a result of a simple credible problem.

Regards
Star man

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 23, 2019, 06:11:35 AM
Okay - lets just say a physical fight did occur. Where is the place it was most likely to have occurred? Based on the evidence?

The Cedar?

Because if it had occurred at the tent, someone other than the 2 who had protective shoes on would have put THEIR shoes on right? If you're going off in a huff, you put your shoes on. If you're running after someone, you put your shoes on.

The only credible explanation for a fight causing them to leave the tent without protective clothing on, is if they were inebriated by alcohol/poisoning/etc. Something that compromised their logic.

Only 3 or 4 would have been so overcome (FIGHT or FLIGHT) that they would have gone out of the tent in their sleepwear.

Also, very important - it has been highly contested that they cut themselves out of the tent. I mean, unless of course someone got so pissed with having to sew the tent, that as revenge, they did cut it from the inside. But this is unlikely.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 23, 2019, 07:54:17 AM
If he fought who? How do you kill ??? Knife or drowning ???   There is no single evidence of knife and drowning.   If they couldn't kill each other, why didn't they go back to the tent ??? Or why didn't they go back to the tent when the fight was over? Why don't the eyes and the ribs are broken and the tongue does ??? Did they fight?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 23, 2019, 08:54:18 AM
Okay - lets just say a physical fight did occur. Where is the place it was most likely to have occurred? Based on the evidence?

The Cedar?

Because if it had occurred at the tent, someone other than the 2 who had protective shoes on would have put THEIR shoes on right? If you're going off in a huff, you put your shoes on. If you're running after someone, you put your shoes on.

The only credible explanation for a fight causing them to leave the tent without protective clothing on, is if they were inebriated by alcohol/poisoning/etc. Something that compromised their logic.

Only 3 or 4 would have been so overcome (FIGHT or FLIGHT) that they would have gone out of the tent in their sleepwear.

Also, very important - it has been highly contested that they cut themselves out of the tent. I mean, unless of course someone got so pissed with having to sew the tent, that as revenge, they did cut it from the inside. But this is unlikely.

Is it possible that one of them went psycho after a fight at the tent and attacked the others with a knife.  The immediate and significant threat to life was one of their own group members.  Let’s say that person grabs Semyon from behind, arm around neck holding knife to his throat. The psycho tells those who have come out of tent without shoes to throw their weapons back into tent.  Kolevatov who has drawn his fink and dropped the sheath outside throws it back into the tent.  Semyon struggles and breaks free but sustains a bad cut to his head behind his ear.  The psycho then runs at the group who flee down the slope, with the psycho in pursuit.  The group eventually split up on the slope as the psycho can’t follow all of them. 

The rav four have a bad accident falling off a ridge. The two Yuris climb the cedar to get a vantage point.  Maybe it is the two Yuris that the psycho followed.  He waits under the cedar. Maybe even lights the fire.  Before the two Yuris climb down the psycho leaves and attempts to go back to the tent.  The two Yuris climb or fall out of the tree and die from the cold.

We already know what happens to the rav four. 

So the other two die wandering around on the slope.  And eventually the psycho dies on the slope too.  So who is the psycho?  Zina is not likely.  Rustem has bad head injuries, so unlikely. The most psycho would be Dyatlov?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 23, 2019, 09:49:01 AM
A person with a knife has no chance against 8 people. And probable most of them must be knives. And why are they following her with bare feet and half naked ???  Youth people seem smart and professional. I'm sure they're not going to make such a big mistake.As far as I can see from the photos there was a strong friendship between them.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 23, 2019, 11:15:30 AM
It could have happened like that, but do you honestly think it did? Are you 100 percent? I don't know Star Man....I'm starting to think a fight wasn't enough to send them out into the night like that. :(

And what of my question about where the physical fight occurred, because I don't know if there is any evidence that a fight occurred at the tent. Where the physical fight occurred is integral to the fight theory, right?? And I say physical, because of course yes, an argument could have occurred at the tent, but a verbal fight wouldn't result in the exposure death of the hikers....unless they were running from an attacker. But one attacker? Against minimum 6??

If a knife had been used, don't you think there would have been way more slash wounds?

And the only "possible" wound caused by a knife was supposedly on Dyatlov's palm:
Vietnamka: "In the area of the palm surface of the second and fifth fingers there is a skin wound of irregular linear shape with regular edges located transverse to the length of the fingers; the surface wounds are up to 0.1 (or 0.2 – note) cm deep."

I don't know if Semyon's wound can be attributed to a knife slash - 8 x 6cm's just seems too wide doesn't it? The skin covering the skull is so thin.

And I just can't forget about the radioactive clothing. I first thought it might be attributed to 2 of them working at a nuclear facility. However, remembering that the amount was high DESPITE lying in water and having most of it apparently washed away and reading about the examination from a person who seemed to be an expert on this subject ("Ryan"), I am of the belief that the radiation that tainted the clothes occurred on the mountain.

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Marchesk on April 23, 2019, 12:22:57 PM
And I just can't forget about the radioactive clothing. I first thought it might be attributed to 2 of them working at a nuclear facility. However, remembering that the amount was high DESPITE lying in water and having most of it apparently washed away and reading about the examination from a person who seemed to be an expert on this subject ("Ryan"), I am of the belief that the radiation that tainted the clothes occurred on the mountain.

If the radioactivity is from the mountain, then why was it found on only two of their clothes?

But more importantly, what made the investigative team think to look for radioactivity? Who asked for that test? Do we know a reason?

Seems like an odd thing to look for in the middle of nowhere, unless they suspected a secret nuclear test, facility or dumping ground nearby. Maybe even the higher ups had their own suspicion, and thus they decided to put pressure on closing the case early, just in case there was something going on.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 23, 2019, 12:56:57 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

This doesnt sound like a very simple explanation. How can you know what any of the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ?

The diaries provide some clues.  Also the photos.  60% of communication is visual.  Also people in a group often take on roles in the social hierarchy that are common.  People are basically programmed to think in a particular way.  System 1 thinking.  The Abilene paradox.  It's behaviour that we all learn as children, and then take for granted later in life.  The evening Otorten provides a glimpse about what the author was thinking.

Regards

Star man

People are not Computers. People are not programmed to think in a particular way. You say that there are clues of friction in the diaries. Only clues  !  ?  Actually it is not even evidence.

Yes people are programmed.  People basically have two modes - system 1 and system 2 thinking.  System 2 is used to learn.  In other words to program system 1. System 2 is slow and cumbersome.  System 1 is sub conscious.  Solve the following 2 problems in your head:

10x6=
567x 398=

The first answer you provide is pre programmed.

The second will likely be system 2 in operation.

Regards

Star man

The Human Brain is a very incredible thing. The best scientists in the World have never been able to figure it out and you are saying that there are 2 programmes  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 23, 2019, 12:57:18 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

This doesnt sound like a very simple explanation. How can you know what any of the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ?

The diaries provide some clues.  Also the photos.  60% of communication is visual.  Also people in a group often take on roles in the social hierarchy that are common.  People are basically programmed to think in a particular way.  System 1 thinking.  The Abilene paradox.  It's behaviour that we all learn as children, and then take for granted later in life.  The evening Otorten provides a glimpse about what the author was thinking.

Regards

Star man

People are not Computers. People are not programmed to think in a particular way. You say that there are clues of friction in the diaries. Only clues  !  ?  Actually it is not even evidence.

Yes people are programmed.  People basically have two modes - system 1 and system 2 thinking.  System 2 is used to learn.  In other words to program system 1. System 2 is slow and cumbersome.  System 1 is sub conscious.  Solve the following 2 problems in your head:

10x6=
567x 398=

The first answer you provide is pre programmed.

The second will likely be system 2 in operation.

Regards

Star man

The Human Brain is a very incredible thing. The best scientists in the World have never been able to figure it out and you are saying that there are 2 programmes  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 23, 2019, 01:02:02 PM
If there was no avalanche (not credible givent incline and small amount of snow), no katana tic wind ( not credible given the position and forces that would be exhorted on the tent), no outworldy or cryptozoology explanation, no military involvement, no other outside involvement it seems that the more likely explanation for the DPI is that the events were a result of the tourists own actions?

Regards

Star man





And does that include the very mysterious abandonment of their means of survival the Tent and Clothing. And does that include  the injuries that could not have been caused by any other Human etc etc etc etc.

Yes in terms of this topic it does.  It is an assumption of the topic.  Whatever happened, it was a result of a simple credible problem.

Regards
Star man



If it was a simple credible problem then it would have been solved 60 years ago.  You can not say with any certainty whatsoever that this was a simple incident.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 23, 2019, 01:06:12 PM
Okay - lets just say a physical fight did occur. Where is the place it was most likely to have occurred? Based on the evidence?

The Cedar?

Because if it had occurred at the tent, someone other than the 2 who had protective shoes on would have put THEIR shoes on right? If you're going off in a huff, you put your shoes on. If you're running after someone, you put your shoes on.

The only credible explanation for a fight causing them to leave the tent without protective clothing on, is if they were inebriated by alcohol/poisoning/etc. Something that compromised their logic.

Only 3 or 4 would have been so overcome (FIGHT or FLIGHT) that they would have gone out of the tent in their sleepwear.

Also, very important - it has been highly contested that they cut themselves out of the tent. I mean, unless of course someone got so pissed with having to sew the tent, that as revenge, they did cut it from the inside. But this is unlikely.

Based on the little evidence we have it is impossible to say with any certainty that there was any kind of fighting, let alone think you can say where it is supposed to have taken place.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 23, 2019, 01:29:24 PM
Hi Marchesk,

Yes, I suppose you're right. That is the more important question.

Here's that post by "Ryan" - I don't know his background but he seems to know what he's talking about. Let me know what you think after reading:

"I've seen some misinterpretations of the radiological report (pp. 371-377), so I wanted to walk people through the methodology and the math on Table 2.

The Soviets are using a measurement unit for beta contamination of disintegrations per minute per 150 square centimeters. (This is a bit strange; I've recently acquired American military surplus contamination probes, and they use 100 cm^2 as the area.)

The test equipment is an array of four STS-6 Geiger tubes in a "lead house." People in the US typically use the term "lead castle" - it's just an enclosure shielded on all sides by lead. Because the goal is to count decays from the fabric, anything that can be done to reduce the natural background hitting the Geiger tubes will make the instrument more sensitive to the sample placed inside it due to decreased background noise.

The report mentions the background radiation as being 90 pulses per minute before washing, and 100 pulses per minute after washing. My assumption is that they probably measured all the samples before washing at one time, and all the samples after washing at another time, taking one background reading for each time. Background radiation is not constant. Weather can affect radon concentration, for example. I imagine atmospheric density and the sunspot cycle will have an effect, too. To determine the background number, they simply run the detector with the chamber empty.

Let's look at item #10, Dubinina's brown sweater. Before washing, it measured 640 counts per minute, which appears in the "Total cpm" column. However, 90 is the background number, so we take 640 - 90 = 550 counts per minute.

Now there is an adjustment factor of 8.9 mentioned in the report. A Geiger tube isn't always going to respond with a pulse if a beta particle hits it because it is not 100% sensitive. Also, there are geometry issues. A radioactive sample is going to emit radiation uniformly in all directions. If you have four tubes sitting above the sample, not every particle will strike a tube. So that means not every beta emitted by the sample will be counted. It appears this detector will measure 1 beta for every 8.9 emitted. So we take 550 counts / minute * 8.9 and arrive at 4895 actual disintegrations from the sample. This appears in the report as 4900, clearly rounded, in the "Radioactivity of contaminated area" column.

Next, it must be noted that the sweater sample size was only 75 cm^2 according to the "Area cm^2" column. But the standard for activity is disintegrations per minute per 150 cm^2. So we need to multiply the result by (150 / 75) or 2. And 4895 * 2 = 9790. The report lists 9900 in the "Radioactivity of contaminated area in terms of 150 cm^2" column. Again, rounded. (This is a guess, but I'm wondering if they used a slide rule, in which case the numbers will be close but not exact.)

Looking at the values after washing, we get:

(390 - 100) * 8.9 = 2581 (the report shows 2600)
2581 * (150 / 75) = 5162 (the report shows 5200)

Now I need to note that lines 6 and 7 have typos in the English translation on dyatlovpass.com. They list the counts per minute after washing as 11 and 77, respectively. These make no sense because background after washing is 100. But looking at the report image, I see this is 111 and 177 respectively.)

Samples 2, 3, and 4 list 2 pairs of numbers for total counts per minute. I'm guessing that the before washing and after washing activities may have been measured twice. It seems only the first number was used for further computation, except for sample 4 after washing, in which case the last was used.

Now the number 5000 decays / minute / 150 cm^2 has been used as a threshold in the report. First, I need to be clear that this is NOT background. As shown above, background was subtracted early on. So any number substantially >0 means there is contamination above natural background.

This 5000 number appears to be an occupational safety limit. In other words, if you worked at a Soviet nuclear facility, and at the end of your shift your clothes had 6000 decays per min per 150 cm^2, that would be considered an unacceptable problem.

But that does NOT mean that, say, ending your shift with 4000 on your clothes is in any way normal! It still means your clothing is contaminated. The contamination is just not at a level that would be unacceptable for a nuclear worker. Also, that nuclear worker will not be wearing clothing contaminated at that level home! If there is a potential of contamination, then they're going to change into different clothing for their shift.

But we're talking about hikers in the woods, not workers at a nuclear facility, so anything obviously above 0 is going to be unusual. The fact that many of the results do not exceed the safety standards for a nuclear worker doesn't mean they should be considered normal.

The waistband of Kolevatov's sweater, the bottom part of Kolevatov's trousers, and Dubinina's brown sweater are all >5000. But that doesn't mean they are the only contaminated clothes. All of the 9 samples, before washing, were substantially above background. The least contaminated of the nine samples was the bottom part of Thibault Brignoles' trousers, at 600. Everything else was >1000.

So ALL of the clothing samples tested on ALL four hikers in the ravine was contaminated with beta emitting isotope(s)."
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 23, 2019, 01:38:09 PM
Sarapuk - I understand the trouble with speculation and yes I tend to overdo it a bit sometimes ( tongue2)....however simply negating every single exercise in thinking with the fact that there "is little to no evidence to support it" is sort of nullifying the purpose of the forum.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 23, 2019, 03:10:36 PM
It could have happened like that, but do you honestly think it did? Are you 100 percent? I don't know Star Man....I'm starting to think a fight wasn't enough to send them out into the night like that. :(

And what of my question about where the physical fight occurred, because I don't know if there is any evidence that a fight occurred at the tent. Where the physical fight occurred is integral to the fight theory, right?? And I say physical, because of course yes, an argument could have occurred at the tent, but a verbal fight wouldn't result in the exposure death of the hikers....unless they were running from an attacker. But one attacker? Against minimum 6??

If a knife had been used, don't you think there would have been way more slash wounds?

And the only "possible" wound caused by a knife was supposedly on Dyatlov's palm:
Vietnamka: "In the area of the palm surface of the second and fifth fingers there is a skin wound of irregular linear shape with regular edges located transverse to the length of the fingers; the surface wounds are up to 0.1 (or 0.2 – note) cm deep."

I don't know if Semyon's wound can be attributed to a knife slash - 8 x 6cm's just seems too wide doesn't it? The skin covering the skull is so thin.

And I just can't forget about the radioactive clothing. I first thought it might be attributed to 2 of them working at a nuclear facility. However, remembering that the amount was high DESPITE lying in water and having most of it apparently washed away and reading about the examination from a person who seemed to be an expert on this subject ("Ryan"), I am of the belief that the radiation that tainted the clothes occurred on the mountain.

Hi Clacon,

Tbh it was just off the cuff speculation.  I was just trying to brain storm aNother scenario.  I'm not sure if a fight would be enough either. 

In terms of where a fight might have occurred I am trying not to limit it to any specific place.  I think it could have happened at the tent, on the slope, or at the cedar etc.  the reason I speculate that the fight happened at the tent is because this is where events began and it's difficult to explain the shoes without it starting there?

In terms of one person with a knife vs 8 others who are unarmed then the exact psychology of the situation is important.  Would the situation be radically different if the one person had a gun?  Not that much because the first person to confront the attacker is likely to get killed or seriously injured.  Who is going to take on that role?  Are there any heroes amongst th group?  Maybe Semyon?  He did have a significant laceration to his skull?  He is also the other alpha of the group.

Would there be more knife injuries.  Not necessarily.  If the original fight started as a brawl, hand to hand combat we would expect the usual cuts, bruises, swollen lips and blooded noses (which of course are present amongst the group).  It is only when Dyatlov pulls a knife out and threatens them that things take a more sinister and dangerous turn.  The threat of the knife and potential lethal injuries might have been enough to cause the flight response.  I think you have to put yourself in their shoes on that mountain.  Imagine this as a potential scenario:

Dyatlov has affections for Zina, but someone else is flirting with her on the trip.  It becomes too much for him and he loses his temper and the fight starts.  Zina talks about Dyatlov's rude behaviour in her diary and says that she does not recognise him.  What is going on with Dyatlov?  His behaviour is unusual.


The fight spills out of the tent and some of the group take some serious knocks (rustem for instance).  The group gang up on Dyatlov and he pulls his knife out.  Any persons who were still in the tent clamber out to see what is going on.  Most of them have no footwear on.  Dyatlov takes a hostage with his knife and orders those with weapons to throw them down.  The ice axe at the entrance to the tent, kolevatovs sheath outside and his fink inside.  The hostage breaks free of Dyatlov and runs.  Dyatlov charges at the group and they flee down the hillside with Dyatlov in pursuit.  The group are not thinking, they are just trying to get away from someone with a knife. 

There are indicators that the group splits up at some point.  Possibly on the slope on the way down. 

There are indicators that the two Yuris climbed the cedar tree.  They were the least best dressed so why would they do that unless they were trying to get away from someone.  Their scratches and abrasions and frost bite indicates that they may have been up that cedar tree for some time.  Could Dyatlov have been waiting underneath it for them?

One thing that I find odd about the three found on the slope.  If Dyatlov and Zina were close (an item), even if they were just together then why would they leave each other to die if they were struggling?  Dyatlov would certainly not have left Zina if they were Together.  I doubt they would have left Rustem either.  Rustem had an ice bed which means he collapse some time before he actually died.  So why didn't they help him?  Probably because there was nobody else there.  Same for Zina.  They didn't leave anyone because maybe none of them were together to start with.  But if Dyatlov had a thing for Zina (photo in his pocket) why wasnt he with her?  Maybe because she didn't recognise him and he was the cause of the DPI.  She ran away from him not with him.

Semyon's head wound. Youre right it could have just been a result of a fall.

The radioactive clothing has always stuck out for me.  But as many people repeatedly point out, this could be circumstantial evidence.  Another scenario is that they were poisoned with a radiosctive substance?

I think there are still a range of scenarios to be explored under "the simple credible option"

I am liking the Dyatlov psychotic breakdown a bit more now. lol2

Regards

Star man

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 23, 2019, 03:20:01 PM
And I just can't forget about the radioactive clothing. I first thought it might be attributed to 2 of them working at a nuclear facility. However, remembering that the amount was high DESPITE lying in water and having most of it apparently washed away and reading about the examination from a person who seemed to be an expert on this subject ("Ryan"), I am of the belief that the radiation that tainted the clothes occurred on the mountain.

If the radioactivity is from the mountain, then why was it found on only two of their clothes?

But more importantly, what made the investigative team think to look for radioactivity? Who asked for that test? Do we know a reason?

Seems like an odd thing to look for in the middle of nowhere, unless they suspected a secret nuclear test, facility or dumping ground nearby. Maybe even the higher ups had their own suspicion, and thus they decided to put pressure on closing the case early, just in case there was something going on.

I agree the radioactivity has always stuck out like a sore thumb to me.  But there are plenty of people on the forum who believe it is just circumstantial too.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 23, 2019, 03:37:07 PM
Hahaha - great minds Star Man....

Okay, so....how do the events go down? Its interesting you mention Igor as a possible instigator - if you believe the newspaper existed/wasn't a plant.
I was reading he was an A-type and controlling. Someone mentioned Lyuda was not a fan. Maybe she ran off and got lost?

Who is he likely going to fight? Surely it involves Zina and Rustem (same injuries) and they all die on the slope. Or Igor isn't the bad guy, maybe defending Zina from Rustem or someone else? There's also that straight edged would on Igor's hand....

 It seems weird to me that they were the closest to the tent but died first. Why? Because of their severe injuries? And wouldn't the Yuris have found at least one of the 3 on the way to the tent? Unless they are the 2 who storm off first. "Eff them we're gonna make a fire and not go back to the tent".

They would have had to have been horribly lost and disorientated or drunk to not have found their way back to the tent or to have burned themselves around that fire which is what appears to have happened.

Someone or some two were perhaps not involved in the initial event - maybe outside peeing or something? I just don't think the footprint evidence and the behaviour points to ALL of them exiting at once and then scattering into 3 groups.

This just seems like something kids trying to get their higher tourist certifications wouldn't do. But, they were just kids I guess.

Ok so bear with me on this. Remember it is a thought experiment.  Why you may ask? Because sometimes when trying to solve a complex problem it’s useful to start with the most simple solutions.  Only if you can’t solve it with the simple solutions do you allow one more level of complexity and then you try to solve it again.  I am not convinced that all the simple explanations have been explored in a logical way and exhaustive way.

Dyatlov may have fallen out with the Yuris.  Krivonishenko was young and from the diary entries seems unhappy “calls his friends traitors “. His jacket is badly burned and they joke about it.  Dorishenko may have been close to him.  Rusted is closer to Dyatlov.  So when Yuri K starts fight some of the others take sides and instead of being able to break up the fight they get dragged into it and it escalated from there.

On the slope they head away from the tent.  Initially the groups head in the same general direction, but soon lose each other in the darkness.  At first the Yuris think they can survive by building a fire and by the time they realise their mistake it’s too late.

The others set out in two different groups to find the Yuris.  Semyons group have a terrible accident on the dangerous slope near the tree line.  Dyatlov group simply gets lost and can’t find the tent.  The end?

Star man

This doesnt sound like a very simple explanation. How can you know what any of the Dyatlov Group were thinking  !  ?

The diaries provide some clues.  Also the photos.  60% of communication is visual.  Also people in a group often take on roles in the social hierarchy that are common.  People are basically programmed to think in a particular way.  System 1 thinking.  The Abilene paradox.  It's behaviour that we all learn as children, and then take for granted later in life.  The evening Otorten provides a glimpse about what the author was thinking.

Regards

Star man

People are not Computers. People are not programmed to think in a particular way. You say that there are clues of friction in the diaries. Only clues  !  ?  Actually it is not even evidence.

Yes people are programmed.  People basically have two modes - system 1 and system 2 thinking.  System 2 is used to learn.  In other words to program system 1. System 2 is slow and cumbersome.  System 1 is sub conscious.  Solve the following 2 problems in your head:

10x6=
567x 398=

The first answer you provide is pre programmed.

The second will likely be system 2 in operation.

Regards

Star man

The Human Brain is a very incredible thing. The best scientists in the World have never been able to figure it out and you are saying that there are 2 programmes  !  ?

 It has been said that the brain is the most complex structure in the universe yes.  I am not saying that there are two programmes.  I am saying that there are two basic systems at work in the human mind.  System 1 which is linked to the subconscious and which is programmed by system 2  - which is who you think you are ( your conscious self).

What is true is that we learn most of our responses and thought patterns from birth.  For instance:

In the uk and most western countries we are programmed to think of dogs as mans beat friend, and great pets.  This is what we learn.  This what we understand as normal.

In China People are programmed to think of dogs as a tasty meal. This is what they have learned.  This is what they understand as normal.

Regards

Star man


Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 23, 2019, 11:57:12 PM
Just to build on the Dyatlov psychotic breakdown scenario:

At the cedar. The two Yuris had severe frost bite even though there was a fire there?

If there were external elements at work that presented them with a threat then lightning a fire would be a risky strategy because it would alert the attackers to their location.  But if the attackers were already at the cedar then lightning a fire would maybe be a logical thing to do.  Krivonishenko also had some severe burns that people here are trying to understand.  So what about this idea:

Dyatlov follows the two Yuris and they climb the cedar to try and make it difficult for Dyatlov to get them.  Dyatlov lights a fire underneath the cedar to keep warm and also with a burning branch of a tree he prods and pokes at Yuri K burning his legs.  Yuri K knows that if he lets go of the tree he is a dead man so he bites his hand to try and suppress the pain and cling to the tree.

Dyatlov eventually leaves and heads back up the slope and the two Yuris climb down but can’t sustain the fire because they are too weak and cold.  They are later found by Kolevatov who moves them and takes their clothing.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 24, 2019, 11:42:46 AM
Sarapuk - I understand the trouble with speculation and yes I tend to overdo it a bit sometimes ( tongue2)....however simply negating every single exercise in thinking with the fact that there "is little to no evidence to support it" is sort of nullifying the purpose of the forum.

Well yes that has been suggested before. I know we need to keep all OPTIONS open in order for the Forum to continue. We also need to try and make progress towards some kind of solution. My only concern is that if we throw to many speculative ideas into the Forum it only makes it harder to get reasonable progress. Thats why I prefer to keep a steady path, one that enlightens without weighing us down.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 24, 2019, 11:52:35 AM
For Me the most important part of this particular equation is MISSING.  We dont know what type of GEIGER COUNTER or COUNTERS were used in the field and we dont have any readings taken from those field measurements if indeed there were any measurements, because Ivanov claims that his Geiger Detector went CRAZY. If we had READINGS from the field then we could compare them with the later readings. A month is a long time when you are doing Radiation Tests. How many months between the 2 Geiger Counter uses  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 24, 2019, 02:05:09 PM
A good and humble answer. :)

I wish they had done some readings on the latest expeditions - that could have at least put some questions to rest.

Do you think after all this time, there would have been anything left??
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Vietnamka on April 24, 2019, 06:27:42 PM
Do you know about EURT?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster
See the map. Zina come back from kamensk-Uralskiy just 2 days before the trip.
Krivo worked in this site (Kyshtym)
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 24, 2019, 11:36:17 PM
Do you know about EURT?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster
See the map. Zina come back from kamensk-Uralskiy just 2 days before the trip.
Krivo worked in this site (Kyshtym)

Are you suggesting that Zina became contaminated there and then cross contaminated everyone else including the tent?  It might make sense.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 25, 2019, 07:40:18 AM
Yes, and more interestingly Krivo worked as a cleanup 'specialist' of sorts. Most people dont realize that the Russians are responsible for 2 of the 3 major radiation disasters that have taken place.   shock1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 25, 2019, 09:02:35 AM
This is great info! Thank you!

Are we thinking then that we can MAAAAYBEEE rule out exposure to radiation occurring on the mountain that night then??

Is it reasonable to assume they didn't have the precautions, as well as the knowledge, we have now when it comes to exposure to radiation??
Wouldn't they have destroyed their contaminated clothing? Unless they didn't know or they did but were unaware of the long-term effects of exposure to low grade radiation contamination on clothing??
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 25, 2019, 05:23:33 PM
A good and humble answer. :)

I wish they had done some readings on the latest expeditions - that could have at least put some questions to rest.

Do you think after all this time, there would have been anything left??

Its hard to say without knowing what type of alleged Radioactive Material we are dealing with. Others in this Forum have put forward ideas but without knowing the basic facts we end up being stuffed with uncertainty.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 25, 2019, 05:30:12 PM
Do you know about EURT?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster
See the map. Zina come back from kamensk-Uralskiy just 2 days before the trip.
Krivo worked in this site (Kyshtym)

Well the area of the FALLOUT was more than 100 KM from the Dyatlov Incident. As for one or more of the Group being the contaminator, so to speak, we then have to bring in Ivanov again. Ivanov and his going crazy Geiger Counter at the Camp Site. Could a person be so contaminated and still function properly ! ?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 25, 2019, 05:40:55 PM
This is great info! Thank you!

Are we thinking then that we can MAAAAYBEEE rule out exposure to radiation occurring on the mountain that night then??

Is it reasonable to assume they didn't have the precautions, as well as the knowledge, we have now when it comes to exposure to radiation??
Wouldn't they have destroyed their contaminated clothing? Unless they didn't know or they did but were unaware of the long-term effects of exposure to low grade radiation contamination on clothing??

Well it is the Dyatlov Mystery. Iam not sure we can really rule anything out, YET. What we also need to remember is that the Soviet Union were pioneers in Nuclear Manufacturing. Accidents happen. A serious one happened in the USA, known as The Three Mile Island Accident. The Soviets were not without knowledge, they had proper procedures when dealing with Nuclear Materials. If you look at any examples of Protective Clothing from the 1950's, including from the USA, you will see rather crude looking designs, compared to todays HIGH TECH SUITS etc.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 25, 2019, 11:28:03 PM
Ok. Let us say the contamination from a nuclear accident is the simple credible reason for the radiation.

So what about Dyatlov having some kind of psychotic meltdown?  There could be indications of this in the diaries.  Also the pattern fits.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Vietnamka on April 26, 2019, 05:02:02 AM
The clothes were contaminated by beta radioactive substance (may be very small gamma has not been detected).
   Nuclear weapons - plutonium or uranium with a very strong gamma radiation. Not a lot of elements has beta only
Kyshtym disaster was a explosion of of the tanks containing about 70–80 tons of liquid radioactive waste failed, with caesium-137 and strontium-90 - both beta.

Sorry, let me finish later.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Vietnamka on April 26, 2019, 08:16:50 AM
Quote
The Soviets were not without knowledge, they had proper procedures when dealing with Nuclear Materials.. 
How to say... not really. It's well known story how Serov https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Serov keeper an uranium sample in  a drawer.
The second reasone - USSR was ready to pay  a lives during the Cold War.  Kyshtym was not  first, it was only one complex  of industrial processing of nuclear weapon in ussr in 1959. Disaster happened. In case of "knowledges" we should have lost in the Cold War in 1959. We decided to clean contaminated area without stopping the process of production.  No one knows how many lives we gave for realization ot this decision. until  1989 we kept secret the fact of the disaster.
 Some  documents are published now. Guys, the contamination of the clothes of  soldiers who took part in the cleaning reached up to 500 000. Did we try to control? Yes. Could we? No.

If you would like to know about Kyshtym disaster better - find the Los Alamos report to CIA. It's very interesting document.


Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 26, 2019, 08:47:45 AM
Ok but is it possible that the contamination was from some other mishap where they had been working and then there was cross contamination?  Then we can concentrate on whether the events were because Dyatlov had a psychotic meltdown?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 26, 2019, 09:08:35 AM
Oh my Gosh Vietnamka - where do you get your stuff??!! Intriguing as always! :) So many questions:

1) Do you believe, in that era, they knew of the effects of contamination? And if they did, they didn't care to make it known to the workers in plants?

2) Would they have known to destroy contaminated items like clothing? Did they wear protective clothing?? Do you think its likely the 9 didn't know about contamination and kept/wore 
    their clothes anyway?

3) Btw, the poster "Ryan" who seems to be well versed in radiation agreed that the radiation was "Beta". Does that mean the absence of Gamma radiation on their clothing likely means 
    it DID NOT come from a bomb/weapon/nuclear device??

4) Would the Beta radiation on clothing cause the Geiger counters to "go crazy" as Ivanov said?

I followed the link for "Chronic Radiation Syndrome" on the Wiki article posted by Vietnamka:

Chronic radiation syndrome (CRS) is a constellation of health effects of radiation that occur after months or years of chronic exposure to high amounts. Chronic radiation syndrome develops with a speed and severity proportional to the radiation dose received, i.e., it is a deterministic effect of exposure to ionizing radiation, unlike radiation-induced cancer. It is distinct from acute radiation syndrome in that it occurs at dose rates low enough to permit natural repair mechanisms to compete with the radiation damage during the exposure period. Dose rates high enough to cause the acute form (> ~0.1 Gy/h) are fatal long before onset of the chronic form. The lower threshold for chronic radiation syndrome is between 0.7 and 1.5 Gy, at dose rates above 0.1 Gy/yr.[1] This condition is primarily known from the Kyshtym disaster, where 66 cases were diagnosed. It has received little mention in Western literature;[1] but see the ICRP’s 2012 Statement.[2]
In 2013, Alexander V. Akleyev described the chronology of the clinical course of CRS while presenting at ConRad in Munich, Germany. In his presentation, he defined the latent period as being 1-5 years, and the formation coinciding with the period of maximum radiation dose. The recovery period was described as being 3-12 months after exposure ceased. He concluded that "CRS represents a systemic response of the body as a whole to the chronic total body exposure in man."[3] In 2014, Akleyev's book "Comprehensive analysis of chronic radiation syndrome, covering epidemiology, pathogenesis, pathoanatomy, diagnosis and treatment" was published by Springer.[4]

I think perhaps if they did have radiation poisoning it was likely chronic as opposed to acute.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 26, 2019, 09:30:55 AM
Also - what do you think of Star Man's "Igor's Psychotic Breakdown Theory"?  grin1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 26, 2019, 01:53:34 PM
Quote
The Soviets were not without knowledge, they had proper procedures when dealing with Nuclear Materials.. 
How to say... not really. It's well known story how Serov https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Serov keeper an uranium sample in  a drawer.
The second reasone - USSR was ready to pay  a lives during the Cold War.  Kyshtym was not  first, it was only one complex  of industrial processing of nuclear weapon in ussr in 1959. Disaster happened. In case of "knowledges" we should have lost in the Cold War in 1959. We decided to clean contaminated area without stopping the process of production.  No one knows how many lives we gave for realization ot this decision. until  1989 we kept secret the fact of the disaster.
 Some  documents are published now. Guys, the contamination of the clothes of  soldiers who took part in the cleaning reached up to 500 000. Did we try to control? Yes. Could we? No.

If you would like to know about Kyshtym disaster better - find the Los Alamos report to CIA. It's very interesting document.

What does allegedly keeping some Uranium sample in a drawer have to do with the bigger picture  !  ?  It doesnt prove anything. And Industrial processes can be very dirty, even Nuclear ones. And it was pioneering days in the 1950's.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 26, 2019, 01:56:10 PM
There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that any of the Dyatlov Group had any kind of Mental breakdown.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Vietnamka on April 26, 2019, 06:07:35 PM
According to a report sent by the Soviet authorities to the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the accident in the Urals contaminated land
in the provinces of Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk and Tumen. The report, which
the agency has circulated, says that there were no deaths immediately after
the explosion and none which could be attributed to the accident over the
three succeeding decades.

Neither medical data collected by Soviet specialists since the accident
nor epidemiological studies have produced any evidence of significant changes
in rates of mortality or morbidity, say the Soviet authorities. Their report
also claims that there is no evidence of genetic damage as a result of the
accident. The document circulated by the IAEA says that in Chelyabinsk province,
some 40 000 hectares of the area affected by fallout is now being farmed.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 27, 2019, 05:10:31 AM
The clothes were contaminated by beta radioactive substance (may be very small gamma has not been detected).
   Nuclear weapons - plutonium or uranium with a very strong gamma radiation. Not a lot of elements has beta only
Kyshtym disaster was a explosion of of the tanks containing about 70–80 tons of liquid radioactive waste failed, with caesium-137 and strontium-90 - both beta.

Thanks for this, the Kyshtym disaster provides a very credible source for the beta contamination.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 27, 2019, 06:12:30 AM
This is great info! Thank you!

Are we thinking then that we can MAAAAYBEEE rule out exposure to radiation occurring on the mountain that night then??

Is it reasonable to assume they didn't have the precautions, as well as the knowledge, we have now when it comes to exposure to radiation??
Wouldn't they have destroyed their contaminated clothing? Unless they didn't know or they did but were unaware of the long-term effects of exposure to low grade radiation contamination on clothing??

Well it is the Dyatlov Mystery. Iam not sure we can really rule anything out, YET. What we also need to remember is that the Soviet Union were pioneers in Nuclear Manufacturing. Accidents happen. A serious one happened in the USA, known as The Three Mile Island Accident. The Soviets were not without knowledge, they had proper procedures when dealing with Nuclear Materials. If you look at any examples of Protective Clothing from the 1950's, including from the USA, you will see rather crude looking designs, compared to todays HIGH TECH SUITS etc.

Three Mile Island had "no detectable health effects on plant workers or the public."

Our oops wasn't even 1/1,000 of an issue as either of the two major Russian catastrophic events.  The plant is still in operation.  Russia experienced two MAJOR explosions sending radioactive material into the atmosphere that spread like the wind.  They then tried to cover it up and then lied about it. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 27, 2019, 11:47:27 PM
The most likely explanation was that the young people saw horrible images and heard voices .. and remained in fear. The question to ask here is: Why did they run out of wearing Semyon and Tibo shoes while others wore it? The reason for this was that Semyon and Tibo predicted they would suddenly be expelled from the tent ... And they had already worn their shoes and their clothes. Semyon even took his camera. He predicted that Semyon would be older than the others because he was older and mature. And warned in Tiboyu. And there was a sudden attack on the tent !!! Suddenly, the youngsters came out of the tent and started to walk towards the valley. And they all came to the tree. And they wanted to light the fire. Because they're cold. That's why they definitely have to come to the tree to light a fire. And they all wanted to go out and watch the tent. But they burned a little fire., four of them decided to make a cave in the mountain pass. The other three decided to go back to the tent. That's where superman decided to attack. I mean, when the band breaks up. From the deaths, it is understood that there was a sudden attack and that they suffered a lot during his death. And the hands look close to the heart .... This means that deaths are not sudden but not too long. Maybe between 10 and 30 seconds .... This may give us some hints about the attacker.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 28, 2019, 12:00:53 AM
The reason for the young people's escape from the tent: Maybe they could not resist  pressure and stress. shock1 twitch7 huh1 This explains why they did not run away. afraid7 But this time he can't explain why they're not wearing his shoes.The sudden attack also explains why they didn't wear their shoes, but this time they can't explain why they didn't run away. dunno1
Or something that was a mixture of the two. This is the most logical approach.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 28, 2019, 12:24:16 AM
One imaginable question: Dytlov and Rustem and Zina are returning. Why Zina? A woman? Why did not Kolevatov and Tibo and Semyon return? Semyon and Tibon had shoes. Still, Zina, who has no shoes, is turning? The answer is that the group is very frightened and proves that they cannot fully use their mental abilities.      Or they thought it was not a good idea to go back to the Semyon and Tibo tent. And Kolevatov also thought like them. That's why Dytlov Rustem and Zina, who are most courageous, decided to return.                                                                                                                                                                            
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 28, 2019, 12:44:49 AM
Why didn't the youngsters get away farther? Maybe they would get away from the attacker and get out. Probably the attacker could fly a flight ..... Or if there was a walking man on the ground, for example, like YETI, then the young people would escape only a mile, maybe 10 miles away. Just a mile away from the attacker in my mind to know that Superman is capable of flying .... Going far away would only exhaust the young more.  drool1So they didn't go too far and prayed to God to get rid of it.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 29, 2019, 10:02:13 AM
This is great info! Thank you!

Are we thinking then that we can MAAAAYBEEE rule out exposure to radiation occurring on the mountain that night then??

Is it reasonable to assume they didn't have the precautions, as well as the knowledge, we have now when it comes to exposure to radiation??
Wouldn't they have destroyed their contaminated clothing? Unless they didn't know or they did but were unaware of the long-term effects of exposure to low grade radiation contamination on clothing??

Well it is the Dyatlov Mystery. Iam not sure we can really rule anything out, YET. What we also need to remember is that the Soviet Union were pioneers in Nuclear Manufacturing. Accidents happen. A serious one happened in the USA, known as The Three Mile Island Accident. The Soviets were not without knowledge, they had proper procedures when dealing with Nuclear Materials. If you look at any examples of Protective Clothing from the 1950's, including from the USA, you will see rather crude looking designs, compared to todays HIGH TECH SUITS etc.

Three Mile Island had "no detectable health effects on plant workers or the public."

Our oops wasn't even 1/1,000 of an issue as either of the two major Russian catastrophic events.  The plant is still in operation.  Russia experienced two MAJOR explosions sending radioactive material into the atmosphere that spread like the wind.  They then tried to cover it up and then lied about it.

Covering up such things is not uncommon in any Country. It still doesnt make it any easier to explain the Dyatlov Incident. There just doesnt appear to be a simple explanation.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 29, 2019, 11:38:41 PM
But isn’t a fight that escalates into a more serious situation a simple and credible explanation?

Look at Yuri K burns - he has significant burns on both lower legs and also on his left hand.  How did he get these burns?

A person chasing him and inflicting those burns could easily explain it?

It seems possible that the person that  lit the fire could have been the person that was chasing him.  Why else would he have such significant burns from the fire?

Dyatlov is a good candidate for losing it. He has a thing for Zina and she is sharing a tent with 7 men.  The joking and possibly flirting could have triggered his temper and a fight.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 30, 2019, 11:40:20 AM
The cause of the burns was probably the superman attack. 2 Yuri was with the fire. Superman attacked. At that moment 2 Yuri fell on the fire. And there were various burns. Yuri K. bit his finger from the pain of these specs. And then his friends came and took their clothes. And they took them by the fire and put them side by side. And they made caves in the snow. And Superman killed three young men on the hillside. Then he came and killed four youngsters in the cave. Young people have acted very boldly ... they did their best. A normal person could go crazy in these circumstances ...
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 30, 2019, 12:18:45 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on April 30, 2019, 12:42:38 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 30, 2019, 01:20:22 PM
But isn’t a fight that escalates into a more serious situation a simple and credible explanation?

Look at Yuri K burns - he has significant burns on both lower legs and also on his left hand.  How did he get these burns?

A person chasing him and inflicting those burns could easily explain it?

It seems possible that the person that  lit the fire could have been the person that was chasing him.  Why else would he have such significant burns from the fire?

Dyatlov is a good candidate for losing it. He has a thing for Zina and she is sharing a tent with 7 men.  The joking and possibly flirting could have triggered his temper and a fight.

Regards
Star man

Once again, there is absolutely no evidence of fighting amongst the Group. Some of the injuries could not have been caused by other Humans. There are NO Traces at the Tent of any kind of fighting.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on April 30, 2019, 01:29:21 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on April 30, 2019, 01:35:51 PM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 30, 2019, 01:53:12 PM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.
And the den just "happened" to be there?Or they built a den and instead of sheltering in it they went walkabout?And then they fell on top of each other such that Lyudmila received two fracture events?
OR
They were crushed in the den.
Which is simpler, more credible?


Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Ehtnisba on April 30, 2019, 05:49:23 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?

I am wondering the same thing for so long 😆
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Ehtnisba on April 30, 2019, 05:53:23 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That's the best thing ever concluded in this forum! I am also starting to think the authorities wrote it absolutely true in the conclusion - unknown overwhelming force... Nobody knows what it is...and probably will never know... Except if we accept UFO as a possibility....
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on April 30, 2019, 06:07:04 PM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.
And the den just "happened" to be there?Or they built a den and instead of sheltering in it they went walkabout?And then they fell on top of each other such that Lyudmila received two fracture events?
OR
They were crushed in the den.
Which is simpler, more credible?




Two fracture events?    prove it please......

And if you think the injuries were cause by two events, bows a simple collapse of said den (that we can't verify existed' do that?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 30, 2019, 11:29:15 PM
The cause of the burns was probably the superman attack. 2 Yuri was with the fire. Superman attacked. At that moment 2 Yuri fell on the fire. And there were various burns. Yuri K. bit his finger from the pain of these specs. And then his friends came and took their clothes. And they took them by the fire and put them side by side. And they made caves in the snow. And Superman killed three young men on the hillside. Then he came and killed four youngsters in the cave. Young people have acted very boldly ... they did their best. A normal person could go crazy in these circumstances ...

I take it that the superman you talk about isn’t the “Christopher Reed” type?  It’s more like some kind of evil supernatural entity that has selected the group for death?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 30, 2019, 11:33:45 PM
But isn’t a fight that escalates into a more serious situation a simple and credible explanation?

Look at Yuri K burns - he has significant burns on both lower legs and also on his left hand.  How did he get these burns?

A person chasing him and inflicting those burns could easily explain it?

It seems possible that the person that  lit the fire could have been the person that was chasing him.  Why else would he have such significant burns from the fire?

Dyatlov is a good candidate for losing it. He has a thing for Zina and she is sharing a tent with 7 men.  The joking and possibly flirting could have triggered his temper and a fight.

Regards
Star man

Once again, there is absolutely no evidence of fighting amongst the Group. Some of the injuries could not have been caused by other Humans. There are NO Traces at the Tent of any kind of fighting.

But as you keep pointing out there is very little evidence for any of the theories so this one is in good company in that respect?  So isn’t it just as worthy as any other?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 30, 2019, 11:39:10 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

For all we know this forum May have actually identified the true reason but does not have the evidence to back it up?

Unknown compelling force is just another way of saying - ok we give up “. We don’t know what happened” IMO

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 30, 2019, 11:42:01 PM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.

Yes Clacon  thumb1. That is what I’m implying in this thread.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on April 30, 2019, 11:48:28 PM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were

I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.
And the den just "happened" to be there?Or they built a den and instead of sheltering in it they went walkabout?And then they fell on top of each other such that Lyudmila received two fracture events?
OR
They were crushed in the den.
Which is simpler, more credible?

The den was likely to have been just a few twigs on the ground put there by Kolevatov to rest his injured friends on.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on April 30, 2019, 11:58:14 PM
Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever.
Not so. I've shown that the skin colour can be attributed to NO2/nitric acid. I've also shown that the ravine injuries are consistent with crushing whilst in the den. Afaik they are both firsts. These two then provide a complete answer to the DPI, ball lightning or military activity or perhaps a combination. There are other narratives of course, the main question now is determining their probability.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 12:05:48 AM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.
And the den just "happened" to be there?Or they built a den and instead of sheltering in it they went walkabout?And then they fell on top of each other such that Lyudmila received two fracture events?
OR
They were crushed in the den.
Which is simpler, more credible?




Two fracture events?    prove it please......I don't have the training in pathology to prove it!  kewl1 It's my understanding that some pathologists think two events is the most credible cause of her injuries. It makes sense to me but i'm a layman.

And if you think the injuries were cause by two events, bows a simple collapse of said den (that we can't verify existed' do that?Shouldn't you know this? - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=398.0
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 12:12:56 AM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were

I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.
And the den just "happened" to be there?Or they built a den and instead of sheltering in it they went walkabout?And then they fell on top of each other such that Lyudmila received two fracture events?
OR
They were crushed in the den.
Which is simpler, more credible?

The den was likely to have been just a few twigs on the ground put there by Kolevatov to rest his injured friends on.Not wide enough for three people lying down and no protection for half their length. It doesn't fit.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 01, 2019, 06:08:18 AM
Quote
And if you think the injuries were cause by two events, can a simple collapse of said den (that we can't verify existed' do that?Shouldn't you know this? - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=398.0

Your theory they were 'washed' out of a den proves she received two impacts from a collapsed den?

 lol1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 06:15:12 AM
Quote
And if you think the injuries were cause by two events, can a simple collapse of said den (that we can't verify existed' do that?Shouldn't you know this? - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=398.0 (http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=398.0)

Your theory they were 'washed' out of a den proves she received two impacts from a collapsed den?

 lol1
Nope i've never said that and you know it.  bang1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 01, 2019, 06:18:33 AM
Quote
Two fracture events?    prove it please......       I don't have the training in pathology to prove it!  kewl1 It's my understanding that some pathologists think two events is the most credible cause of her injuries. It makes sense to me but i'm a layman.


There's the problem....    Folks come here and read your false fact posts.  You consistently state things as if they were facts which can be misleading to readers and cause confusion.  Perhaps use phrases such as 'may have', 'possibly' etc.  There is likely several people that have now read your post and are under the false impression two blows is a fact. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 01, 2019, 06:20:31 AM
Quote
And if you think the injuries were cause by two events, can a simple collapse of said den (that we can't verify existed' do that?Shouldn't you know this? - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=398.0 (http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=398.0)

Your theory they were 'washed' out of a den proves she received two impacts from a collapsed den?

 lol1
Nope i've never said that and you know it.  bang1

Your original reply to my question implies that two blows are fact because......  (see your link)

Hogwash
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 06:25:29 AM
Quote
Two fracture events?    prove it please......       I don't have the training in pathology to prove it!  kewl1 It's my understanding that some pathologists think two events is the most credible cause of her injuries. It makes sense to me but i'm a layman.

Perhaps use phrases such as 'may have', 'possibly' etc. 
Or phrases like - "It's my understanding that some pathologists think ....."?   
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 01, 2019, 08:17:57 AM
The Skin Tone:
I honestly think the simplest possible credible explanation for the orange skin can be attributed to the false memory of a 12 (???) year old boy at the funeral.

I believe that most of the families attributed this event to a military accident and so rumours were probably rampant at the time that they had been hit with some kind of bomb/rocket. I'm sure they thought the chemicals therefrom changed the colour of the skin.

https://media.mnn.com/assets/images/2016/08/tattoo-otzi.jpg.838x0_q80.jpg

This corpse was of course mummified, however, it was frozen and I think maybe that can account for the strange skin tone reportedly seen on the corpses at the funeral. This could be especially true of Dubinina's chin as she had been frozen longer.

We just don't know how dying in subzero temperatures affects the skin. I know corpses found in water are usually a green/black colour, so who knows if this is the colour that results from being frozen and then thawed??

A Fall
I suppose we don't know if the den had a "roof" which would have then collapsed as your "tracked vehicle" (Nigel) rode over the Rav 3. Sometimes I think comments made by Vozrozhdenny such as "could be the result of an impact of an automobile moving at high speed", are misleading. It makes you think that only a vehicle could have been responsible. But this is not the case, he is talking about the FORCE of impact being comparable to being hit by a vehicle.

When it comes to a fall:

"Vozrozhdenny, who undertook the autopsy, excluded accidental fall on the rock as a possible cause for such a massive and unusual fracture.

From what kind of force could Thibeaux-Brignolle have received such injury?
In the conclusion, it’s shown the damage to Thibeaux-Brignolle’s head could have been the result of the throwing, fall or jettisoning of the body. I don’t believe these injuries could have been the result of Thibeaux-Brignolle simply falling from the level of his own height
"

This is important - because I'm saying he didn't fall from "his own height".

There is evidence ( I think WAB mentioned it) that Kolevatov went between the Cedar and the Ravine (den). Maybe the Rav 4 were going back and forth - walking on top of snow and ice with a water running below. This could create a pocket through which they could have fallen through onto the rocks, no?

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 01, 2019, 08:48:15 AM
I am not a pathologist but the rib injuries can be examined from a purely mechanical perspective.  Bones have material properties that are defined. 

The injuries reflect a massive high speed impact such as a fall.  They are inconsistent with a slow crush.

I have posted details of this under “low yield nuke “ sorry but difficult to create and post links on my tiny phone.

A fall is the simple most credible explanation for the injuries,

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 09:25:25 AM
The Skin Tone:
I honestly think the simplest possible credible explanation for the orange skin can be attributed to the false memory of a 12 (???) year old boy at the funeral.
Not so, everyone who was there says the same, here's the picture :-(https://i.ibb.co/344hRCw/Dyatlov-pass-funerals-9-march-1959-36.jpg) (https://ibb.co/QppmDKZ)

If you zoom that photo you should notice that Yuri's face is much darker than Zina's which fits with him dying first, foam on cheek from pulmonary edema etc. He got a bigger dose of no2/nitric acid than she did.

I believe that most of the families attributed this event to a military accident and so rumours were probably rampant at the time that they had been hit with some kind of bomb/rocket. I'm sure they thought the chemicals therefrom changed the colour of the skin.

https://media.mnn.com/assets/images/2016/08/tattoo-otzi.jpg.838x0_q80.jpg (https://media.mnn.com/assets/images/2016/08/tattoo-otzi.jpg.838x0_q80.jpg)

This corpse was of course mummified, however, it was frozen and I think maybe that can account for the strange skin tone reportedly seen on the corpses at the funeral. This could be especially true of Dubinina's chin as she had been frozen longer.

We just don't know how dying in subzero temperatures affects the skin. I know corpses found in water are usually a green/black colour, so who knows if this is the colour that results from being frozen and then thawed??

A Fall
I suppose we don't know if the den had a "roof" which would have then collapsed as your "tracked vehicle" (Nigel) rode over the Rav 3. Sometimes I think comments made by Vozrozhdenny such as "could be the result of an impact of an automobile moving at high speed", are misleading. It makes you think that only a vehicle could have been responsible. But this is not the case, he is talking about the FORCE of impact being comparable to being hit by a vehicle.

When it comes to a fall:

"Vozrozhdenny, who undertook the autopsy, excluded accidental fall on the rock as a possible cause for such a massive and unusual fracture.

From what kind of force could Thibeaux-Brignolle have received such injury?
In the conclusion, it’s shown the damage to Thibeaux-Brignolle’s head could have been the result of the throwing, fall or jettisoning of the body. I don’t believe these injuries could have been the result of Thibeaux-Brignolle simply falling from the level of his own height
"

This is important - because I'm saying he didn't fall from "his own height".

There is evidence ( I think WAB mentioned it) that Kolevatov went between the Cedar and the Ravine (den). Maybe the Rav 4 were going back and forth - walking on top of snow and ice with a water running below. This could create a pocket through which they could have fallen through onto the rocks, no?
Falling is a possible narrative as is crushing, but which is the simplest?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 09:26:35 AM
I am not a pathologist but the rib injuries can be examined from a purely mechanical perspective.  Bones have material properties that are defined. 

The injuries reflect a massive high speed impact such as a fall.  They are inconsistent with a slow crush.

I have posted details of this under “low yield nuke “ sorry but difficult to create and post links on my tiny phone.

A fall is the simple most credible explanation for the injuries,

Regards
Star man
Interesting theory i'm intrigued but will have a read later tonight.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 01, 2019, 10:27:14 AM
Quote
Two fracture events?    prove it please......       I don't have the training in pathology to prove it!  kewl1 It's my understanding that some pathologists think two events is the most credible cause of her injuries. It makes sense to me but i'm a layman.

Perhaps use phrases such as 'may have', 'possibly' etc. 
Or phrases like - "It's my understanding that some pathologists think ....."?   



Your original statement I referred to is this...

Quote
And the den just "happened" to be there?Or they built a den and instead of sheltering in it they went walkabout?And then they fell on top of each other such that Lyudmila received two fracture events?
OR
They were crushed in the den.
Which is simpler, more credible?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 01, 2019, 11:30:22 AM
I don't think Star Man is implying the Rav 4 were killed directly by the fight - i.e. their injuries were not caused by a fight.

I think we all believe that the simplest possible credible explanation for their deaths was that they fell.

We could have a Vote then. I dont believe the injuries at the so called Ravine were caused by any kind of Fall.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 01, 2019, 11:36:24 AM
But isn’t a fight that escalates into a more serious situation a simple and credible explanation?

Look at Yuri K burns - he has significant burns on both lower legs and also on his left hand.  How did he get these burns?

A person chasing him and inflicting those burns could easily explain it?

It seems possible that the person that  lit the fire could have been the person that was chasing him.  Why else would he have such significant burns from the fire?

Dyatlov is a good candidate for losing it. He has a thing for Zina and she is sharing a tent with 7 men.  The joking and possibly flirting could have triggered his temper and a fight.

Regards
Star man

Once again, there is absolutely no evidence of fighting amongst the Group. Some of the injuries could not have been caused by other Humans. There are NO Traces at the Tent of any kind of fighting.

But as you keep pointing out there is very little evidence for any of the theories so this one is in good company in that respect?  So isn’t it just as worthy as any other?

Regards
Star man

Well Iam only going by the Facts. I guess it must be down to The Jury Service I did in 2 British Courts Of Law.  It kind of makes you think that way, if you know what I mean.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 01, 2019, 11:50:34 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

For all we know this forum May have actually identified the true reason but does not have the evidence to back it up?

Unknown compelling force is just another way of saying - ok we give up “. We don’t know what happened” IMO

Regards
Star man

But the facts we have can lead one to suggest that some kind of unknown force was responsible. Its not a way out. Its a possibility.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 01, 2019, 11:52:28 AM
Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever.
Not so. I've shown that the skin colour can be attributed to NO2/nitric acid. I've also shown that the ravine injuries are consistent with crushing whilst in the den. Afaik they are both firsts. These two then provide a complete answer to the DPI, ball lightning or military activity or perhaps a combination. There are other narratives of course, the main question now is determining their probability.

You have put forward theories. You have not given us a result.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 01, 2019, 12:10:31 PM
The cause of the burns was probably the superman attack. 2 Yuri was with the fire. Superman attacked. At that moment 2 Yuri fell on the fire. And there were various burns. Yuri K. bit his finger from the pain of these specs. And then his friends came and took their clothes. And they took them by the fire and put them side by side. And they made caves in the snow. And Superman killed three young men on the hillside. Then he came and killed four youngsters in the cave. Young people have acted very boldly ... they did their best. A normal person could go crazy in these circumstances ...

I take it that the superman you talk about isn’t the “Christopher Reeves" type?  It’s more like some kind of evil supernatural entity that has selected the group for death?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 01, 2019, 12:14:32 PM
I am not a pathologist but the rib injuries can be examined from a purely mechanical perspective.  Bones have material properties that are defined. 

The injuries reflect a massive high speed impact such as a fall.  They are inconsistent with a slow crush.

I have posted details of this under “low yield nuke “ sorry but difficult to create and post links on my tiny phone.

A fall is the simple most credible explanation for the injuries,

Regards
Star man

Are you sure of your statement regarding the Rib Injuries  !  ?  Why do you think that they are inconsistent with a slow crush  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 01, 2019, 01:31:04 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 01:34:21 PM
Quote
Two fracture events?    prove it please......       I don't have the training in pathology to prove it!  kewl1 It's my understanding that some pathologists think two events is the most credible cause of her injuries. It makes sense to me but i'm a layman.

Perhaps use phrases such as 'may have', 'possibly' etc. 
Or phrases like - "It's my understanding that some pathologists think ....."?   



Your original statement I referred to is this...

Quote
And the den just "happened" to be there?Or they built a den and instead of sheltering in it they went walkabout?And then they fell on top of each other such that Lyudmila received two fracture events?
OR
They were crushed in the den.
Which is simpler, more credible?
Ok, i accept your point.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 01:37:34 PM
Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever.
Not so. I've shown that the skin colour can be attributed to NO2/nitric acid. I've also shown that the ravine injuries are consistent with crushing whilst in the den. Afaik they are both firsts. These two then provide a complete answer to the DPI, ball lightning or military activity or perhaps a combination. There are other narratives of course, the main question now is determining their probability.

You have put forward theories. You have not given us a result.
Only the Russian government can give us a result and that would probably be a false one...  kewl1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 01:40:12 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man
The front of a tracked vehicle falling into a crater would be fast enough i think.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 01, 2019, 01:54:16 PM
I completely agree with Star Man - a fall is the SIMPLEST possible explanation for the Rav4's injuries.

A crushing force would imply something would have had to have crushed them - which is not SIMPLE at all. It just makes the narrative far more complicated than it has to be.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 01, 2019, 02:05:39 PM
I mean the coroner does say "These wounds, especially appearing in such a way without any damage to the soft tissue of the chest, are very similar to the type of trauma that results from the shock wave of a bomb."

But no one on the forum really agrees with that because there are no burns on trees blah blah blah....

So my vote is FALL
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 01, 2019, 02:10:58 PM
I mean the coroner does say "These wounds, especially appearing in such a way without any damage to the soft tissue of the chest, are very similar to the type of trauma that results from the shock wave of a bomb."

But no one on the forum really agrees with that because there are no burns on trees blah blah blah....

So my vote is FALL
Ball lightning could explode without any great heat?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 01, 2019, 02:49:32 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man
The front of a tracked vehicle falling into a crater would be fast enough i think.

Yes it possibly would be fast enough, but how much force would it exhurt on the body?  How far does it fall?  What is its mass?  Without even answering those question I would expect there to have been other serious injuries such as:

Significant internal injuries to organs - ruptured spleens, pancreas, etc


Thibo's head injury appears to be an impact at one point on his skull by hard but relatively blunt object.  If there was a crushing force from a tracked vehicle I would expect the damage to have been even worse

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 01, 2019, 02:57:54 PM
I mean the coroner does say "These wounds, especially appearing in such a way without any damage to the soft tissue of the chest, are very similar to the type of trauma that results from the shock wave of a bomb."

But no one on the forum really agrees with that because there are no burns on trees blah blah blah....

So my vote is FALL

Hi Clacon,

Just to add some further substance to your above claim.  A compressive force such as a shock wave would also cause any person standing up to be thrown horizontally.  The force required to cause the injuries would be capable of throwing said person up to 50 metres.  So you would expect to see additional and significant injuries and lacerations which we don't see in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 01, 2019, 04:14:20 PM
Hell, with that scale of an explosion, you would have a permanent crater.   shock1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 01, 2019, 04:18:10 PM
From my military experience, no tracked or wheeled vehicle would last 2 seconds in the bottom of that ravine.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on May 02, 2019, 12:29:43 AM
The cause of the burns was probably the superman attack. 2 Yuri was with the fire. Superman attacked. At that moment 2 Yuri fell on the fire. And there were various burns. Yuri K. bit his finger from the pain of these specs. And then his friends came and took their clothes. And they took them by the fire and put them side by side. And they made caves in the snow. And Superman killed three young men on the hillside. Then he came and killed four youngsters in the cave. Young people have acted very boldly ... they did their best. A normal person could go crazy in these circumstances ...

I take it that the superman you talk about isn’t the “Christopher Reeves" type?  It’s more like some kind of evil supernatural entity that has selected the group for death?

Regards
Star man
No Superman is not bad. Bundan emin olabilirsiniz.If it were bad it could not have power. God wouldn't let that happen. He must have won this strength well and hard working. Or he cannot have that power as nothing bad. Killing young people is not about wanting to do them evil. You can take them to the side or to get to another dimension. Superman is not a god but a very strong being.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on May 02, 2019, 12:56:14 AM
It is very certain that the rib fractures are caused by shock waves from Supermandan. If it were made up of a bomb, there would not be only two people, and the young people would have been scattered around and not next to each other. Look at the young people !!! They are lined up and Dubinina is also very close to them !!! So a bomb cannot be a missile or a tracked vehicle. So they're not dead by any accident. Superman may have pulled his arms and opened the palms again and pushed them quickly towards the chest. There may have been a high pressure. This pressure broke the ribs on the chest. !!! It has been very fast and strong !!! Then he cut his tongue out. It may be the result of being so frightened that their skin is orange (?) Her hair may be whitened again due to great fear and stress.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 02, 2019, 03:40:55 AM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man
The front of a tracked vehicle falling into a crater would be fast enough i think.

Yes it possibly would be fast enough, but how much force would it exhurt on the body?  How far does it fall?  What is its mass?  Without even answering those question I would expect there to have been other serious injuries such as:

Significant internal injuries to organs - ruptured spleens, pancreas, etc


Thibo's head injury appears to be an impact at one point on his skull by hard but relatively blunt object.  If there was a crushing force from a tracked vehicle I would expect the damage to have been even worse

Regards

Star man
Not if it is solely applied across a 30 cm width across the upper torso through say 1-2ft of snow, there wouldn't be any damage to the soft organs other than the throat. But to hoist you by your own argument.... How does falling not result in soft organ damage, burst spleen etc?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 02, 2019, 03:41:31 AM
From my military experience, no tracked or wheeled vehicle would last 2 seconds in the bottom of that ravine.
But if it was 4m deep in snow?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 02, 2019, 08:03:12 AM
From my military experience, no tracked or wheeled vehicle would last 2 seconds in the bottom of that ravine.
But if it was 4m deep in snow?

To my knowledge, the military would prefer to reach such a remote area by helicopter rather than a tracked vehicle which would have been slow and would have left too many traces. A person (or more) falling from a helicopter can easily sustain most of the injuries considering one can hit something or someone on the ground. The snow and clothes would eliminate the external injuries to an extent.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 02, 2019, 08:41:20 AM
From my military experience, no tracked or wheeled vehicle would last 2 seconds in the bottom of that ravine.
But if it was 4m deep in snow?

To my knowledge, the military would prefer to reach such a remote area by helicopter rather than a tracked vehicle which would have been slow and would have left too many traces. A person (or more) falling from a helicopter can easily sustain most of the injuries considering one can hit something or someone on the ground. The snow and clothes would eliminate the external injuries to an extent.

The tracked vehicle theory assumes that it was transported to the location by helicopter, perhaps a Mi-6 - payload = 12 tonnes.

The alternative mechanism for crushing is a ball lightning roller of course. - http://www.ball-lightning.info/Ball-lightning/Roller.html


Imo the falling theory has a major problem which there being no detected internal organ damage, multiple ribs snapped but spleens ok?. The only injuries are broken bones and internal bleeding. And this is after you've got over the lack of limb fractures and external bruising which makes it improbable to begin with. Nicolai's skull suffered sufficient trauma (split across the base) that it was permanently misshaped. From a fall with no other injuries? Not really. Crushing through a layer of snow is a much better fit.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 02, 2019, 09:56:13 AM
But Nigel - your argument against a fall is mine against being crushed by a tracked vehicle - no internal injuries? No damage to spleen? No damage to limbs? From a tracked vehicle running over 3 human bodies with a few metres of snow to take most of the force?? Its like the vehicle picked and chose areas of the body to crush and which to leave perfectly intact.

And I know you're going to say the force was not applied equally because of the snow layer, how they were lying, the fact that the surface area of their exposed bodies was smaller than the tracks (I don't really know how to explain this concept in my head but it has to do with positions of bodies and points of contact as the tracks rolled over the bodies - obviously not going to be uniform) BUT I actually think your ball lightning theory is more plausible.   tongue2

Anyway was going thru the autopsy reports and found this:

Nikolai:
"In the area of ​​the right shoulder on the anterior-internal surface - a spilled bruise 10x12 cm greenish-blue in color at the middle and lower third. In the area of ​​bruising hemorrhages in the underlying soft tissue."

Kolevatov:
"In the region of the left knee joint, on the inner surface, diffuse hemorrhage into the underlying tissues."

Dubinina:
"On the outer and anterior surface of the left thigh, in the middle third, the diffuse bruise is cyanotic-lilac in a 10 x 5 cm section with a hemorrhage into the thickness of the skin.
In places of fracture of the ribs there are diffuse hemorrhages in the intercostal muscles.
In the area of ​​the sternum hand on the right a diffuse hemorrhage."

Semyon:
"After the extraction of the organocomplex from the thoracic and abdominal cavity, the II, III, IV, Y, YI ribs on the right are determined along the okologo-ore and mid-axillary line with hemorrhage into the adjacent intercostal muscles."

I mean its not much, but it proves that the bodies were not WITHOUT bruising (hemorrhaging), riiiiight? This gives ammunition to the fall and shock wave theories - although, I'm sure Star Man would say they are not significant enough for the shock wave theory.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 02, 2019, 10:37:13 AM
But Nigel - your argument against a fall is mine against being crushed by a tracked vehicle - no internal injuries? No damage to spleen? No damage to limbs? From a tracked vehicle running over 3 human bodies with a few metres of snow to take most of the force?? Its like the vehicle picked and chose areas of the body to crush and which to leave perfectly intact.

And I know you're going to say the force was not applied equally because of the snow layer, how they were lying, the fact that the surface area of their exposed bodies was smaller than the tracks (I don't really know how to explain this concept in my head but it has to do with positions of bodies and points of contact as the tracks rolled over the bodies - obviously not going to be uniform) BUT I actually think your ball lightning theory is more plausible.   tongue2

Anyway was going thru the autopsy reports and found this:

Nikolai:
"In the area of ​​the right shoulder on the anterior-internal surface - a spilled bruise 10x12 cm greenish-blue in color at the middle and lower third. In the area of ​​bruising hemorrhages in the underlying soft tissue."

Kolevatov:
"In the region of the left knee joint, on the inner surface, diffuse hemorrhage into the underlying tissues."

Dubinina:
"On the outer and anterior surface of the left thigh, in the middle third, the diffuse bruise is cyanotic-lilac in a 10 x 5 cm section with a hemorrhage into the thickness of the skin.
In places of fracture of the ribs there are diffuse hemorrhages in the intercostal muscles.
In the area of ​​the sternum hand on the right a diffuse hemorrhage."

Semyon:
"After the extraction of the organocomplex from the thoracic and abdominal cavity, the II, III, IV, Y, YI ribs on the right are determined along the okologo-ore and mid-axillary line with hemorrhage into the adjacent intercostal muscles."

I mean its not much, but it proves that the bodies were not WITHOUT bruising (hemorrhaging), riiiiight? This gives ammunition to the fall and shock wave theories - although, I'm sure Star Man would say they are not significant enough for the shock wave theory.
Glad you like the BL theory!  kewl1
But you're doing a very good impression of not reading the detail of my thread? - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=398.0
Those injuries make the case for something extremely heavy traversing the den  across say a 30cm width? Which is the typical width of a many tracked vehicles....
How about this for a narrative :-It is Feb 1, 1959. Gary Powers will be shot down in just over a year. So the Soviets are testing their new high altitude SAM - SA-75 which uses red nitric acid as fuel for the second stage. But where are these spent missiles to land to avoid civilian injury or death and to ensure absolute secrecy? How about the Urals? How about Dead mountain? Nice and remote and the super, ultra top secret project can stay that way by flying in (with our brand new Mil Mi6) one or more tracked vehicles to collect the debris. These vehicles equipped with the means of hiding their tracks to retain absolute secrecy. Seems a good fit?

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 02, 2019, 11:03:54 AM
Do I have to read the thread to find out how they mask their tracks?

Apologies - I'm a lazy detective.  kewl1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 02, 2019, 12:33:10 PM
Do I have to read the thread to find out how they mask their tracks?

Apologies - I'm a lazy detective.  kewl1


Nothing wrong with being lazy.  loco1


How about dragging a machine like a snow plough that throws the top layer of snow into the air. Or a separate vehicle.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 02, 2019, 12:35:10 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man
The front of a tracked vehicle falling into a crater would be fast enough i think.

Yes it possibly would be fast enough, but how much force would it exhurt on the body?  How far does it fall?  What is its mass?  Without even answering those question I would expect there to have been other serious injuries such as:

Significant internal injuries to organs - ruptured spleens, pancreas, etc


Thibo's head injury appears to be an impact at one point on his skull by hard but relatively blunt object.  If there was a crushing force from a tracked vehicle I would expect the damage to have been even worse

Regards

Star man
Not if it is solely applied across a 30 cm width across the upper torso through say 1-2ft of snow, there wouldn't be any damage to the soft organs other than the throat. But to hoist you by your own argument.... How does falling not result in soft organ damage, burst spleen etc?

Falling probably can result in organ damage - depending on the fall height.  But in the two cases being discussed, the forces involved and geometric shape changes.  Ie deformation if the shape of the body is likely to be considerably different.

A fall from 4 to 5 metres would be enough to cause the injuries.  A high speed impact resulting in about 2.5 tonnes of force over a second or so.

The force from a military vehicle falling on you is going to be much higher than this and would more damage

What is the mass of the vehicle?
How far does it fall?
What is the depth of the snow?

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 02, 2019, 01:09:48 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 02, 2019, 01:16:00 PM
It is very certain that the rib fractures are caused by shock waves from Supermandan. If it were made up of a bomb, there would not be only two people, and the young people would have been scattered around and not next to each other. Look at the young people !!! They are lined up and Dubinina is also very close to them !!! So a bomb cannot be a missile or a tracked vehicle. So they're not dead by any accident. Superman may have pulled his arms and opened the palms again and pushed them quickly towards the chest. There may have been a high pressure. This pressure broke the ribs on the chest. !!! It has been very fast and strong !!! Then he cut his tongue out. It may be the result of being so frightened that their skin is orange (?) Her hair may be whitened again due to great fear and stress.

Are you saying that this SUPERMAN theory is not deliberately killing the Dyatlov Group  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 02, 2019, 01:17:48 PM
From my military experience, no tracked or wheeled vehicle would last 2 seconds in the bottom of that ravine.
But if it was 4m deep in snow?

To my knowledge, the military would prefer to reach such a remote area by helicopter rather than a tracked vehicle which would have been slow and would have left too many traces. A person (or more) falling from a helicopter can easily sustain most of the injuries considering one can hit something or someone on the ground. The snow and clothes would eliminate the external injuries to an extent.

The tracked vehicle theory assumes that it was transported to the location by helicopter, perhaps a Mi-6 - payload = 12 tonnes.

The alternative mechanism for crushing is a ball lightning roller of course. - http://www.ball-lightning.info/Ball-lightning/Roller.html


Imo the falling theory has a major problem which there being no detected internal organ damage, multiple ribs snapped but spleens ok?. The only injuries are broken bones and internal bleeding. And this is after you've got over the lack of limb fractures and external bruising which makes it improbable to begin with. Nicolai's skull suffered sufficient trauma (split across the base) that it was permanently misshaped. From a fall with no other injuries? Not really. Crushing through a layer of snow is a much better fit.

Or CRUSHING by something else  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 02, 2019, 01:38:47 PM
From my military experience, no tracked or wheeled vehicle would last 2 seconds in the bottom of that ravine.
But if it was 4m deep in snow?

To my knowledge, the military would prefer to reach such a remote area by helicopter rather than a tracked vehicle which would have been slow and would have left too many traces. A person (or more) falling from a helicopter can easily sustain most of the injuries considering one can hit something or someone on the ground. The snow and clothes would eliminate the external injuries to an extent.

The tracked vehicle theory assumes that it was transported to the location by helicopter, perhaps a Mi-6 - payload = 12 tonnes.

The alternative mechanism for crushing is a ball lightning roller of course. - http://www.ball-lightning.info/Ball-lightning/Roller.html (http://www.ball-lightning.info/Ball-lightning/Roller.html)


Imo the falling theory has a major problem which there being no detected internal organ damage, multiple ribs snapped but spleens ok?. The only injuries are broken bones and internal bleeding. And this is after you've got over the lack of limb fractures and external bruising which makes it improbable to begin with. Nicolai's skull suffered sufficient trauma (split across the base) that it was permanently misshaped. From a fall with no other injuries? Not really. Crushing through a layer of snow is a much better fit.

Or CRUSHING by something else  !  ?
Crushed by anything with a mass measured in tonnes and whose footprint was approximately 30cm across and traveled in a straight line....

An elephant doing dolly steps?  neg1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 02, 2019, 01:54:38 PM
Sarapuk - what are you suggesting crushed them?

Buuuuutttt Nigellll....wouldn't the vehicle that was covering up the tracks make some sort of imprint in the snow too??



Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 02, 2019, 02:08:59 PM
Sarapuk - what are you suggesting crushed them?

Buuuuutttt Nigellll....wouldn't the vehicle that was covering up the tracks make some sort of imprint in the snow too??
Hey you're a Canadian? and you're asking a Brit about snow blowers? - https://www.woodmaxx.com/SB_72_PTO_WoodMaxx_Snow_Blower_p/sb-72.htm

What is the world coming to he sighs.... dance1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 02, 2019, 02:39:27 PM
Lol - actually South African and moved here.....but long ago enough I should know how to use one! :)

I'm....gonna go with....global warming??? (Not enough snow for snow blowing) LOL


AND....we all know....I'm lazy
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 02, 2019, 03:23:28 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 02, 2019, 03:41:48 PM
Sarapuk - what are you suggesting crushed them?

Buuuuutttt Nigellll....wouldn't the vehicle that was covering up the tracks make some sort of imprint in the snow too??

Iam suggesting that Dubinina's chest injury could have been the result of crushing by something or a blow from something.  I would have thought that a fall would have caused injury to flesh and muscle as well as the ribs. An animal of some kind could cause such a chest injury without causing skin or muscle injury.  The car crash reference is most popular probably because of the large number of car crashes in the World.
Wouldnt any kind of heavy vehicle make a bit of a mess of flesh and muscle  And wouldnt such heavy vehicles leave many traces, including OIL. As for an heavy vehicle pressing the snow down on the 4 in the ravine, that just doesnt fit with the location of the bodies in the ravine and the types of injuries.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 02, 2019, 03:51:05 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man

It would depend on what type of ANIMAL kicked and how they kicked.
It would depend on what type of ENTITY crushed Dubinina.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 02, 2019, 07:16:31 PM
Laff...

I have also been hit by a car TWICE.  The first time, the car was traveling 60mph and I jumped at the last moment as to not go under the car. I came out of it with a shattered ankle. The second time, the car was traveling about 40mph, my head went through the windshield, but all I had was sore bruises.    nose1

So if we gonna play the "cannot get these injuries from a fall" game.... Then lets also play the "cannot get these injuries from a car impact" game.   
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 02, 2019, 07:33:50 PM
Quote
Head and chest trauma were common causes of death.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6440619

 Ya Think!?  lol1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 03, 2019, 02:05:31 AM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Not if it is limited by extent and duration.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 03, 2019, 02:17:34 AM
Laff...

I have also been hit by a car TWICE.  The first time, the car was traveling 60mph and I jumped at the last moment as to not go under the car. I came out of it with a shattered ankle. The second time, the car was traveling about 40mph, my head went through the windshield, but all I had was sore bruises.    nose1

So if we gonna play the "cannot get these injuries from a fall" game.... Then lets also play the "cannot get these injuries from a car impact" game.

Just to add some context - the flail chest injuries are usually received by the people driving the cars, or in the passenger seats when a car comes to a sudden stop, rather than a pedestrian hit by a car.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 03, 2019, 02:42:49 AM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Not if it is limited by extent and duration.

A vehicle driving over in the ravine is unlikely to have been travelling very fast.  Maybe several mph? 

If you look at falls vs crush and ask what is the main difference:

Falls

1.  Fall is usually high speed
2. Fall energy is limited to the mass of the person and their speed of fall

A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJ


Crush

1.  Crush can be fast or slow
2. Crush energy is limited to the mass of the crushing object and the speed of motion in the direction of crush
3.  Crush energy can also be based on powered crushing.  E.g hydraulic systems etc
4. The effect of snow depth can be easily calculated

So how much energy is involved with a military vehicle driving over them?

What is its mass?

What is depth of snow?

How far does the vehicle move vertically downwards when it hits the den?

Let's consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush and find out if it tells us anything

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 03, 2019, 04:03:46 AM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Not if it is limited by extent and duration.

A vehicle driving over in the ravine is unlikely to have been travelling very fast.  Maybe several mph? 
Not if the vehicle was descending and the driver knew the route having been there before on previous exercises. 0 - 20mph?

If you look at falls vs crush and ask what is the main difference:

Falls

1.  Fall is usually high speedYes and with a very abrupt deceleration! So where is the soft organ damage? Stunt men have to have their spleens removed in order to survive the deceleration from falls that DO NOT break their ribs.... Lyudmila demonstrates catastrophic rib fractures with no signs of any soft organ damage. I would need a pathologist to explain to me how her rib cage could fracture like that from a fall and not damage internal organs particularly the spleen.
2. Fall energy is limited to the mass of the person and their speed of fall

A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJNot three large fractures of a young female's rib cage. Maybe multiple impacts (people landing on top of her) but i don't see that injury profile from a single fall.


Crush

1.  Crush can be fast or slow
2. Crush energy is limited to the mass of the crushing object and the speed of motion in the direction of crush
3.  Crush energy can also be based on powered crushing.  E.g hydraulic systems etc
4. The effect of snow depth can be easily calculatedI don't see that. Snow density is highly variable and the collapse of the roof and walls would make the density more variable. I have a memory of WAB stating that the snow density when measured was 300-400kg / m3{Small correction: From memory WAB gave a figure that was between 300-400kg}

So how much energy is involved with a military vehicle driving over them?

What is its mass?We don't know but tonnes.

What is depth of snow?I'd guess at a metre. But we don't know. The key variable here is that the depth allows limited crushing of the rib cages without squashing them. Rib cages are deformed and crack but not flattened. A skull lying between two rib cages is badly cracked but protected somewhat.

How far does the vehicle move vertically downwards when it hits the den?With the roof collapse and snow compression it could be up to 1m.

Let's consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush and find out if it tells us anythingI don't see the case for the task. The variables can obviously be massaged to fit any perspective. What i think is important is fitting the injury profile to the scenario. Heads and chests cracked by a crushing force of limited depth, width and duration = yes. Heads and chests cracked by falling with no limb injuries and no soft organ damage = no.


Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 03, 2019, 05:11:39 AM
https://www.msdmanuals.com/en-gb/home/injuries-and-poisoning/chest-injuries/rib-fractures"The more ribs that are broken, the more likely lungs or other organs are to be damaged.""Usually, a blow strong enough to cause flail chest also bruises the lung beneath the injured area (see Pulmonary Contusion (https://www.msdmanuals.com/en-gb/home/injuries-and-poisoning/chest-injuries/pulmonary-contusion))."
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 03, 2019, 06:35:33 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 03, 2019, 07:39:21 AM
"A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJ"
"Not three large fractures of a young female's rib cage. Maybe multiple impacts (people landing on top of her) but i don't see that injury profile from a single fall."

What if they did fall on top of each other? It was dark, they were probably walking in a line behind each other and the snow gave way because of the water running underneath creating a weak spot?


"The more ribs that are broken, the more likely lungs or other organs are to be damaged." "Usually, a blow strong enough to cause flail chest also bruises the lung beneath the injured area"

Dubinina:
In places of fracture of the ribs there are diffuse hemorrhages in the intercostal muscles.
In the area of ​​the sternum hand on the right a diffuse hemorrhage.
Heart size 12 x 4 x 5. In the region of the right ventricle of an irregular oval shape, a hemorrhage of 4 x 4 cm, with diffuse impregnation of the right ventricular muscle.

"Intercostal muscles are several groups of muscles that run between the ribs, and help form and move the chest wall, which protect the lungs."

Semyon:
"After the extraction of the organocomplex from the thoracic and abdominal cavity, the II, III, IV, Y, YI ribs on the right are determined along the okologo-ore and mid-axillary line with hemorrhage into the adjacent intercostal muscles."
"multiple fractures of the ribs on the right with internal bleeding into the pleural cavity in the presence of a low temperature effect".

"The pleural cavity is the thin fluid-filled space between the two pulmonary pleurae of each lung."


So there were bruises to the lungs (pleural cavity) and intercostal muscles, which sit over top the lungs.

"The spleen is located under the ribcage and above the stomach in the left upper quadrant of the abdomen. It usually lies between the 9th and 11th ribs".

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/Costillas.png/180px-Costillas.png

It looks as if the spleen sits below the area of damage seen in Dubinina and Semyon' ribs. Dubinina's fractures are on the left side, but only her 7th rib and those above was fractured, not those below.

Nikolai:
"crushed fracture in the region of the crest and base of the skull, with a profuse hemorrhage to the brain membranes and to the brain substance"

And so there were bruises to Nikolai's brain, (which underlies the skull) too.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on May 03, 2019, 08:08:27 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.
This is the most logical explanation for this event .... All other explanations are ridiculous and unscrupulous and imaginative and unreasonable.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on May 03, 2019, 08:18:50 AM
It is very certain that the rib fractures are caused by shock waves from Supermandan. If it were made up of a bomb, there would not be only two people, and the young people would have been scattered around and not next to each other. Look at the young people !!! They are lined up and Dubinina is also very close to them !!! So a bomb cannot be a missile or a tracked vehicle. So they're not dead by any accident. Superman may have pulled his arms and opened the palms again and pushed them quickly towards the chest. There may have been a high pressure. This pressure broke the ribs on the chest. !!! It has been very fast and strong !!! Then he cut his tongue out. It may be the result of being so frightened that their skin is orange (?) Her hair may be whitened again due to great fear and stress.

Are you saying that this SUPERMAN theory is not deliberately killing the Dyatlov Group  !  ?

I don't fully understand what you're asking, but Superman has deliberately and deliberately killed young people. I'm pretty sure it's a lot ahead of time. He saw them differently from other people and wanted to kill them. And I think it's not just about them, it must be killing many people in the world. His favorite works were .....
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 03, 2019, 08:33:16 AM
"A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJ"
"Not three large fractures of a young female's rib cage. Maybe multiple impacts (people landing on top of her) but i don't see that injury profile from a single fall."

What if they did fall on top of each other? It was dark, they were probably walking in a line behind each other and the snow gave way because of the water running underneath creating a weak spot?


"The more ribs that are broken, the more likely lungs or other organs are to be damaged." "Usually, a blow strong enough to cause flail chest also bruises the lung beneath the injured area"

Dubinina:
In places of fracture of the ribs there are diffuse hemorrhages in the intercostal muscles.
In the area of ​​the sternum hand on the right a diffuse hemorrhage.
Heart size 12 x 4 x 5. In the region of the right ventricle of an irregular oval shape, a hemorrhage of 4 x 4 cm, with diffuse impregnation of the right ventricular muscle.

"Intercostal muscles are several groups of muscles that run between the ribs, and help form and move the chest wall, which protect the lungs."

Semyon:
"After the extraction of the organocomplex from the thoracic and abdominal cavity, the II, III, IV, Y, YI ribs on the right are determined along the okologo-ore and mid-axillary line with hemorrhage into the adjacent intercostal muscles."
"multiple fractures of the ribs on the right with internal bleeding into the pleural cavity in the presence of a low temperature effect".

"The pleural cavity is the thin fluid-filled space between the two pulmonary pleurae of each lung."


So there were bruises to the lungs (pleural cavity) and intercostal muscles, which sit over top the lungs.

"The spleen is located under the ribcage and above the stomach in the left upper quadrant of the abdomen. It usually lies between the 9th and 11th ribs".

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/Costillas.png/180px-Costillas.png (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/Costillas.png/180px-Costillas.png)

It looks as if the spleen sits below the area of damage seen in Dubinina and Semyon' ribs. Dubinina's fractures are on the left side, but only her 7th rib and those above was fractured, not those below.

Nikolai:
"crushed fracture in the region of the crest and base of the skull, with a profuse hemorrhage to the brain membranes and to the brain substance"

And so there were bruises to Nikolai's brain, (which underlies the skull) too.
Well i'm not a forensic pathologist but even with my limited skills i would expect Nicolai's skull fractures to result in brain hemorrhage whatever the cause, so your point has no value?  kewl1
For Lyudmila and Semyon i would have to defer to the experts, but i note that the pathologist does not use the word "hemorrhage" on the lungs. The intercostals would be expected to be damaged from travelling sharp bone causing internal bleeding?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 03, 2019, 09:20:42 AM
Okay but he said ""multiple fractures of the ribs on the right with internal bleeding into the pleural cavity" (Semyon)
AND the "pleural cavity" IS  ESSENTIALLY the lungs.

"The pleural cavity is the thin fluid-filled space between the two pulmonary pleurae of each lung."

Bruise: A bruise, also known as a contusion, is a type of hematoma of tissue in which capillaries are damaged by trauma, causing a localized internal bleeding that extravasate into the surrounding interstitial tissues.

Hemorrhage: an escape of blood from a ruptured blood vessel, especially when profuse. Bleeding into the spleen or liver are examples of internal hemorrhage.

Can we agree that's what he meant?? For the love of God??

You said "So where is the soft organ damage? Stunt men have to have their spleens removed in order to survive the deceleration from falls that DO NOT break their ribs.... Lyudmila demonstrates catastrophic rib fractures with no signs of any soft organ damage."

The brain comment was obvious, yes, but it proves the point that there was bruising to underlying SOFT ORGANS/TISSUE (I would say the brain is soft???).

Intercostal muscles are not soft organs, they are muscle (which is a type of tissue...so are organs, all comprised of cells...) but they were bruised in both Lyuda and Semyon. That must count for something!!

There was internal bleeding (which I have proved is essentially a hemorrhage or bruise) into the pleural cavity, which is a fluid lining around the lungs, so for all intents and purposes... the lungs, which are soft organs.

And what do you think of my "spleen" argument???


Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 03, 2019, 10:15:30 AM
Okay but he said ""multiple fractures of the ribs on the right with internal bleeding into the pleural cavity" (Semyon)
AND the "pleural cavity" IS  ESSENTIALLY the lungs.
"The pleural cavity is the thin fluid-filled space between the two pulmonary pleurae of each lung."

Bruise: A bruise, also known as a contusion, is a type of hematoma of tissue in which capillaries are damaged by trauma, causing a localized internal bleeding that extravasate into the surrounding interstitial tissues.

Hemorrhage: an escape of blood from a ruptured blood vessel, especially when profuse. Bleeding into the spleen or liver are examples of internal hemorrhage.

Can we agree that's what he meant?? For the love of God??

You said "So where is the soft organ damage? Stunt men have to have their spleens removed in order to survive the deceleration from falls that DO NOT break their ribs.... Lyudmila demonstrates catastrophic rib fractures with no signs of any soft organ damage."

The brain comment was obvious, yes, but it proves the point that there was bruising to underlying SOFT ORGANS/TISSUE (I would say the brain is soft???).

Intercostal muscles are not soft organs, they are muscle (which is a type of tissue...so are organs, all comprised of cells...) but they were bruised in both Lyuda and Semyon. That must count for something!!

There was internal bleeding (which I have proved is essentially a hemorrhage or bruise) into the pleural cavity, which is a fluid lining around the lungs, so for all intents and purposes... the lungs, which are soft organs.

And what do you think of my "spleen" argument???
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemothorax#Traumatic"Injuries often cause the rupture of small blood vessels such as those found between the ribs. However, if larger blood vessels such as the aorta are damaged, the blood loss can be massive."So fractured ribs tear small blood vessels which bleed into the pleural cavity... And no mention of trauma to the lungs...
Your spleen argument is that a burst spleen requires lower rib fractures? I don't think so. My argument is that rapid deceleration (like in car accidents or even movie stunts) results in trauma to soft organs. Three bodies with massive fractures but no soft organ trauma? It was crushing...

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 03, 2019, 11:05:22 AM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Not if it is limited by extent and duration.

A vehicle driving over in the ravine is unlikely to have been travelling very fast.  Maybe several mph? 

If you look at falls vs crush and ask what is the main difference:

Falls

1.  Fall is usually high speed
2. Fall energy is limited to the mass of the person and their speed of fall

A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJ


Crush

1.  Crush can be fast or slow
2. Crush energy is limited to the mass of the crushing object and the speed of motion in the direction of crush
3.  Crush energy can also be based on powered crushing.  E.g hydraulic systems etc
4. The effect of snow depth can be easily calculated

So how much energy is involved with a military vehicle driving over them?

What is its mass?

What is depth of snow?

How far does the vehicle move vertically downwards when it hits the den?

Let's consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush and find out if it tells us anything

Regards

Star man

Minor amendment to above post.  It's the force that's 27K newtons rather than KJoules

Energy is only about 3 KJoules

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 03, 2019, 11:11:09 AM
A vehicle that weighs 2 tonnes with 1 tonnes on each set of tracks or wheels under 1 metre of snow would result in simular  injuries to those observed.  Anything heavier would result in much more significant injuries.  4 tonnes for instance would squish them good.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 03, 2019, 12:26:15 PM
Seems to me they in fact had internal injuries.

Also, 2 tons isn't exactly a military vehicle....  its the weight of an average car. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 03, 2019, 12:54:05 PM
Seems to me they in fact had internal injuries.
Care to detail them?

Also, 2 tons isn't exactly a military vehicle....  its the weight of an average car.

Could be more could less, could be ........ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrjjV6nGh0g
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 03, 2019, 01:18:07 PM
Ummm....when do you think that model in the video was made???

We're talking 1959 here!!
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 03, 2019, 01:24:36 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Not if it is limited by extent and duration.

A vehicle driving over in the ravine is unlikely to have been travelling very fast.  Maybe several mph? 

If you look at falls vs crush and ask what is the main difference:

Falls

1.  Fall is usually high speed
2. Fall energy is limited to the mass of the person and their speed of fall

A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJ


Crush

1.  Crush can be fast or slow
2. Crush energy is limited to the mass of the crushing object and the speed of motion in the direction of crush
3.  Crush energy can also be based on powered crushing.  E.g hydraulic systems etc
4. The effect of snow depth can be easily calculated

So how much energy is involved with a military vehicle driving over them?

What is its mass?

What is depth of snow?

How far does the vehicle move vertically downwards when it hits the den?

Let's consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush and find out if it tells us anything

Regards

Star man
Falls
[1] You say fall is usually high speed. Not sure what speeds you are thinking of  !  ? 
[2] 4 to 5 metres thats about 15 feet. But was there a 15 foot drop at the location where the bodies were found  !  ?
Crush
[ 4] You say that the effect of snow depth can be easily calculated ! ? Not sure what you mean by that. What snow depth ! ?

How can we consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush ! ?  If they fell then how far and how fast did they fall = WE DONT KNOW. If there was a vehicle involved then what type of vehicle was it = WE DONT KNOW. So whats the point of trying to calculate something when most of the required information is UNKNOWN ! ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 03, 2019, 01:31:56 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.

Yes it is.  Just because the OVERWHELMING FORCE is UNKNOWN doesnt mean it isnt an explanation. Physicists often have to explain things using an unknown quantity.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 03, 2019, 02:07:36 PM
Isn't the membrane around a sausage still considered a sausage? Pleural cavity is to membrane what lung is to sausage.

"Your spleen argument is that a burst spleen requires lower rib fractures? I don't think so. My argument is that rapid deceleration (like in car accidents or even movie stunts) results in trauma to soft organs. Three bodies with massive fractures but no soft organ trauma? It was crushing..."

Omg really?? Get me evidence of injuries by crushing then. I bet you there's soft organ damage.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 03, 2019, 04:05:02 PM
Isn't the membrane around a sausage still considered a sausage? Pleural cavity is to membrane what lung is to sausage.You seem to be arguing semantics? That when the pathologist said pleural cavity he really meant lung because it's all the same thing really... Nope i think when he said lung he meant lung and when he said pleural cavity he meant pleural cavity.

"Your spleen argument is that a burst spleen requires lower rib fractures? I don't think so. My argument is that rapid deceleration (like in car accidents or even movie stunts) results in trauma to soft organs. Three bodies with massive fractures but no soft organ trauma? It was crushing..."

Omg really?? Get me evidence of injuries by crushing then. I bet you there's soft organ damage.I'm feeling lazy so i'll let you do the digging...  quiet1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 03, 2019, 04:08:55 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Not if it is limited by extent and duration.

A vehicle driving over in the ravine is unlikely to have been travelling very fast.  Maybe several mph? 

If you look at falls vs crush and ask what is the main difference:

Falls

1.  Fall is usually high speed
2. Fall energy is limited to the mass of the person and their speed of fall

A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJ


Crush

1.  Crush can be fast or slow
2. Crush energy is limited to the mass of the crushing object and the speed of motion in the direction of crush
3.  Crush energy can also be based on powered crushing.  E.g hydraulic systems etc
4. The effect of snow depth can be easily calculated

So how much energy is involved with a military vehicle driving over them?

What is its mass?

What is depth of snow?

How far does the vehicle move vertically downwards when it hits the den?

Let's consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush and find out if it tells us anything

Regards

Star man
Falls
[1] You say fall is usually high speed. Not sure what speeds you are thinking of  !  ? 
[2] 4 to 5 metres thats about 15 feet. But was there a 15 foot drop at the location where the bodies were found  !  ?
Crush
[ 4] You say that the effect of snow depth can be easily calculated ! ? Not sure what you mean by that. What snow depth ! ?

How can we consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush ! ?  If they fell then how far and how fast did they fall = WE DONT KNOW. If there was a vehicle involved then what type of vehicle was it = WE DONT KNOW. So whats the point of trying to calculate something when most of the required information is UNKNOWN ! ?

[1] speeds of approx 10 m/s for Dyatlov injuries
[2] they were probably moved there so the real question should probably be is there a place where they could fall 4 to 5 metres nearby.
[4] the load from a vehicle will be transmitted vertically and laterally.  For loads near the surface the lateral load angle will be between 30 and 45 degrees, but for snow it will more likely be closer to 45 degrees.    45 degrees represents the lowest load transmitted vertically and in calculations above I have not assumed any load overlap from both tracks/wheels sides of the vehicle - which means I am probably under estimating the forces on the people in the den.  Even so a vehicle of more than 2 tonnes would cause even more damage than was observed.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 03, 2019, 04:12:18 PM
Isn't the membrane around a sausage still considered a sausage? Pleural cavity is to membrane what lung is to sausage.

"Your spleen argument is that a burst spleen requires lower rib fractures? I don't think so. My argument is that rapid deceleration (like in car accidents or even movie stunts) results in trauma to soft organs. Three bodies with massive fractures but no soft organ trauma? It was crushing..."

Omg really?? Get me evidence of injuries by crushing then. I bet you there's soft organ damage.

Crush injuries even at very low speeds "do" result in soft tissue and organ damage, even if ribs aren't broken.  It's common in such injuries.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 04, 2019, 08:30:34 AM
 shock1 shock1
Ummm....when do you think that model in the video was made???

We're talking 1959 here!!

 thumb1

And I guarantee it weighs a lot more then 2 tons. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 04, 2019, 08:40:17 AM
shock1 shock1
Ummm....when do you think that model in the video was made???

We're talking 1959 here!!

 thumb1

And I guarantee it weighs a lot more then 2 tons. 
My theory would prefer heavier rather than lighter. The British Scorpion scout weighs in at 8 tonnes and was designed about 10 years after this event. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FV101_Scorpion
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Jacques-Emile on May 04, 2019, 09:05:10 AM
Use real information.  American National Transportation Safety Board and others research this.  They discuss Thoracic Trauma index. (TTI).  They discuss pelvic fracture.

Quote
The thoracic trauma index (TTI) is defined using peak accelerations of the lower spine and the maximum accelerations between the fourth and eighth ribs. In regulatory tests, a TTI value of 85 for four-door and 90 for two-door passenger vehicles, and a peak pelvic lateral acceleration of 130g are the thresholds for these body regions.
No pelvic fractures say no accel to pelvis of 130g (1300 m/s2)
Chestband Analysis of Human Tolerance to Side Impact https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/973320/ (https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/973320/)  One sees the percent likelihood of rib fracture vs. TTI here https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1831543/figure/F3/?report=objectonly (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1831543/figure/F3/?report=objectonly)

Splenic injury in side impact motor vehicle collisions: effect of occupant restraints. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11493797/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11493797/)  Does not have good biomecanics but discusses spleen injury.  So guessing helps none.  This should be used as the way to discuss the trauma not this or that.

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 04, 2019, 09:11:26 AM
Isn't the membrane around a sausage still considered a sausage? Pleural cavity is to membrane what lung is to sausage.

"Your spleen argument is that a burst spleen requires lower rib fractures? I don't think so. My argument is that rapid deceleration (like in car accidents or even movie stunts) results in trauma to soft organs. Three bodies with massive fractures but no soft organ trauma? It was crushing..."

Omg really?? Get me evidence of injuries by crushing then. I bet you there's soft organ damage.

Crush injuries even at very low speeds "do" result in soft tissue and organ damage, even if ribs aren't broken.  It's common in such injuries.

Regards
Star man
It depends on the crushing force being attenuated. For instance if you laid down and a big weight was dropped on your chest with say a metre of fall then it snaps your ribs. Now with the protective strength of your rib cage removed the momentum and mass of the object would continue to press down and damage soft organs.

However if the same happens with you being covered by snow what happens is that the down force is attenuated by depth (the degree depending on the surface area of the base of the object) from resistance from the surrounding snow.


So it is easy imo to consider a scenario where the crushing force is strong enough to massively fracture ribs but is strongly attenuated below this depth. And whilst the soft organs get squeezed they don't get squashed and hence do not display trauma. All you see is bleeding into the pleural cavity from the rib fractures tearing blood vessels around the ribs, intercostal muscles et al.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 04, 2019, 03:37:22 PM
Flail chest is consistent with high speed impact.  They are most common in car accidents.  A double fracture of the ribs on the same side requires the bone to bend rapidly beyond its yield stress at more than one point.  A slow compression causes the weakest point to break relieving the stresses on the second point before it breaks.

Regards

Star man

Flail Chest is a term used to describe such injuries. We are not dealing with a car accident. A Significant fall may be to blame. A Heavy kick by an animal may be to blame. Crushing may also be to blame.

A kick would leave more obvious markes and probably would not cause the number of straight line fractures in this case.

Crushing is likely to cause damage to internal organs, which is not reported in the autopsies.

Regards

Star man
Not if it is limited by extent and duration.

A vehicle driving over in the ravine is unlikely to have been travelling very fast.  Maybe several mph? 

If you look at falls vs crush and ask what is the main difference:

Falls

1.  Fall is usually high speed
2. Fall energy is limited to the mass of the person and their speed of fall

A fall from 4 to 5 metres delivers enough force and energy to cause the chest injuries of the rav 4 it equates roughly to about 27kJ


Crush

1.  Crush can be fast or slow
2. Crush energy is limited to the mass of the crushing object and the speed of motion in the direction of crush
3.  Crush energy can also be based on powered crushing.  E.g hydraulic systems etc
4. The effect of snow depth can be easily calculated

So how much energy is involved with a military vehicle driving over them?

What is its mass?

What is depth of snow?

How far does the vehicle move vertically downwards when it hits the den?

Let's consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush and find out if it tells us anything

Regards

Star man
Falls
[1] You say fall is usually high speed. Not sure what speeds you are thinking of  !  ? 
[2] 4 to 5 metres thats about 15 feet. But was there a 15 foot drop at the location where the bodies were found  !  ?
Crush
[ 4] You say that the effect of snow depth can be easily calculated ! ? Not sure what you mean by that. What snow depth ! ?

How can we consider the difference in the energy of a fall vs a vehicle crush ! ?  If they fell then how far and how fast did they fall = WE DONT KNOW. If there was a vehicle involved then what type of vehicle was it = WE DONT KNOW. So whats the point of trying to calculate something when most of the required information is UNKNOWN ! ?

[1] speeds of approx 10 m/s for Dyatlov injuries
[2] they were probably moved there so the real question should probably be is there a place where they could fall 4 to 5 metres nearby.
[4] the load from a vehicle will be transmitted vertically and laterally.  For loads near the surface the lateral load angle will be between 30 and 45 degrees, but for snow it will more likely be closer to 45 degrees.    45 degrees represents the lowest load transmitted vertically and in calculations above I have not assumed any load overlap from both tracks/wheels sides of the vehicle - which means I am probably under estimating the forces on the people in the den.  Even so a vehicle of more than 2 tonnes would cause even more damage than was observed.

Regards

Star man

[1] Well of course this can only be a guess.
[2] Well of course this can only be a guess.
[3] Well of course this can only be a guess.

You are guessing.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 04, 2019, 03:45:47 PM
shock1 shock1
Ummm....when do you think that model in the video was made???

We're talking 1959 here!!

 thumb1

And I guarantee it weighs a lot more then 2 tons. 
My theory would prefer heavier rather than lighter. The British Scorpion scout weighs in at 8 tonnes and was designed about 10 years after this event. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FV101_Scorpion

I dont think you are going to solve anything by guessing. Guessing that a heavy vehicle was involved. Guessing what type of vehicle. And so. Just guesses.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 05, 2019, 04:13:34 AM
shock1 shock1
Ummm....when do you think that model in the video was made???

We're talking 1959 here!!

 thumb1

And I guarantee it weighs a lot more then 2 tons. 
My theory would prefer heavier rather than lighter. The British Scorpion scout weighs in at 8 tonnes and was designed about 10 years after this event. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FV101_Scorpion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FV101_Scorpion)

I dont think you are going to solve anything by guessing. Guessing that a heavy vehicle was involved. Guessing what type of vehicle. And so. Just guesses.
Everything that is said here is conjecture? The only people who can solve anything is the Russian state.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 05, 2019, 05:56:08 AM
Yes yes ...  because they have done such a good job thus far.    whist1
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 05, 2019, 10:46:31 AM
Yes yes ...  because they have done such a good job thus far.    whist1
Kept it a mystery for 60 years and counting.....
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 05, 2019, 04:17:10 PM
Can 9 tourists get by with a stove and a blanket?

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 06, 2019, 02:22:58 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.

Yes it is.  Just because the OVERWHELMING FORCE is UNKNOWN doesnt mean it isnt an explanation. Physicists often have to explain things using an unknown quantity.

I'll rephrase. It is a childish explanation and argument. Saying "unknown force" is not an explanation for anybody of more than 5 years of age. (Why superman and not Captain America?) Most of your recent statements here are just about saying the opposite with no reasoning. With that attitude we are not getting anywhere...
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 06, 2019, 02:26:42 AM
Yes yes ...  because they have done such a good job thus far.    whist1

The Soviet/Russian state has been withholding the case files and information. I agree they have enough resources to solve it but I also think they won't...
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 06, 2019, 03:48:25 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.
This is the most logical explanation for this event .... All other explanations are ridiculous and unscrupulous and imaginative and unreasonable.

All explanations than an unknown force of a non-existent Superman are unreasonable? Is that some kind of Monty Python & Catch22 crossover?

I really do not see how explaining the DPI by a fairy tale or other non-existent entity involvement is a credible explanation.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on May 06, 2019, 09:00:37 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.
This is the most logical explanation for this event .... All other explanations are ridiculous and unscrupulous and imaginative and unreasonable.

All explanations than an unknown force of a non-existent Superman are unreasonable? Is that some kind of Monty Python & Catch22 crossover?

I really do not see how explaining the DPI by a fairy tale or other non-existent entity involvement is a credible explanation.
You're gonna decide what's going on in this world and what's not? Only God decides. We are not .... And there are so many events in the world that there are many things like superman and so on. There are not only humans and animals in the world ... And the KGB must know more evidence. But the KGB hasn't figured it out.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 06, 2019, 03:36:56 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.
This is the most logical explanation for this event .... All other explanations are ridiculous and unscrupulous and imaginative and unreasonable.

All explanations than an unknown force of a non-existent Superman are unreasonable? Is that some kind of Monty Python & Catch22 crossover?

I really do not see how explaining the DPI by a fairy tale or other non-existent entity involvement is a credible explanation.
You're gonna decide what's going on in this world and what's not? Only God decides. We are not .... And there are so many events in the world that there are many things like superman and so on. There are not only humans and animals in the world ... And the KGB must know more evidence. But the KGB hasn't figured it out.

Only God decides? Which one?

Any entity not defined and not proved is non-existent. Stating otherwise is a logical fallacy.

This superman stuff should be moved to fantasy section.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 06, 2019, 04:12:50 PM
Maybe God knows what happened wrt the dpi?  Maybe we should ask God?

Or maybe there is no God?

Maybe all that there is the uncertainty principle?  Rewind to "The Singularity". The ground energy state of the Singularity may be zero + a tiny tiny amount of uncertainty "relative to zero". Hey presto!

Take your pick.

But what could the simplest possible Credible explanation for the dpi be?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on May 06, 2019, 06:20:20 PM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.
This is the most logical explanation for this event .... All other explanations are ridiculous and unscrupulous and imaginative and unreasonable.

All explanations than an unknown force of a non-existent Superman are unreasonable? Is that some kind of Monty Python & Catch22 crossover?

I really do not see how explaining the DPI by a fairy tale or other non-existent entity involvement is a credible explanation.
You're gonna decide what's going on in this world and what's not? Only God decides. We are not .... And there are so many events in the world that there are many things like superman and so on. There are not only humans and animals in the world ... And the KGB must know more evidence. But the KGB hasn't figured it out.

Only God decides? Which one?

Any entity not defined and not proved is non-existent. Stating otherwise is a logical fallacy.

This superman stuff should be moved to fantasy section.
There is no undefined and proven existence. This sentence is irrational in itself. You don't have to prove every existence. If you can't prove it. You don't have to prove and recognize. You don't know everything in the universe. Because human observations and perceptions are very weak. If you believe in a god, you understand that. But if you don't believe it, it's normal not to understand.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 06, 2019, 11:37:37 PM
Can 9 tourists get by with a stove and a blanket?

Can anyone explain the humour in this question?  I’m not seeing it.

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 07, 2019, 12:26:13 AM

There is no undefined and proven existence. This sentence is irrational in itself.You don't have to prove every existence. If you can't prove it. You don't have to prove and recognize. You don't know everything in the universe. Because human observations and perceptions are very weak. If you believe in a god, you understand that.But if you don't believe it, it's normal not to understand.

In that case I do not understand why you keep referring to a superman, which is a made up fantasy with no definition or proof of existence. This thread is about CREDIBLE explanation. That excludes things that don't conceivably exist in this world.
My beliefs have no consequences on the existence of anything. That is exactly why we should stick with logic and reality.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 07, 2019, 02:18:45 AM
Can 9 tourists get by with a stove and a blanket?

Can anyone explain the humour in this question?  I’m not seeing it.

Regards
Star man
They had several blankets so it's not a statement of fact.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: NkZ on May 07, 2019, 03:14:40 AM
Can 9 tourists get by with a stove and a blanket?

Can anyone explain the humour in this question?  I’m not seeing it.

Regards
Star man
They had several blankets so it's not a statement of fact.

Hi, it's an excerpt from the "Evening Ortoten" leaflet by the group: https://dyatlovpass.com/case-files-31?rbid=17743
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 07, 2019, 04:46:21 AM
Can 9 tourists get by with a stove and a blanket?

Can anyone explain the humour in this question?  I’m not seeing it.

Regards
Star man
They had several blankets so it's not a statement of fact.

Hi, it's an excerpt from the "Evening Ortoten" leaflet by the group: https://dyatlovpass.com/case-files-31?rbid=17743 (https://dyatlovpass.com/case-files-31?rbid=17743)
Yes everyone know's that but Starman is asking "what's the joke?".
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 07, 2019, 08:01:58 AM
LOL - 1950's Communist Tourist humour - an acquired taste.

Very ironical though, as I suppose the answer was unfortunately "no".

I'm skeptical about the "Evening Ortoten" even existing. It seems like it casually plants questions into the minds of those who "read" it....possible explanations about their deaths - in fact the very statement about the stove and the blanket is rhetorical and places the seed in the mind...."no, they were not enough - they obviously froze to death"?

And why not mention the Yeti for those looking for more of an exciting/supernatural cause of the deaths? Or Armenians? Why an "Armenian quiz"?

And what the heck does this even mean???:

"GREETING THE XXI CONVENTION OF INCREASED BIRTHRATE AMONG HIKERS!

PHILOSOPHICAL SEMINAR on the topic of "Love and tourism" takes place daily on the tent premises (central hall). Lectures are given by Dr. Thibeaux and postdoctorate of Love science Dubinina."

Perhaps laying the foundation for the "romance, jealousy and possible infighting explanation"?


Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 07, 2019, 08:24:48 AM
LOL - 1950's Communist Tourist humour - an acquired taste.

Very ironical though, as I suppose the answer was unfortunately "no".

I'm skeptical about the "Evening Ortoten" even existing. It seems like it casually plants questions into the minds of those who "read" it....possible explanations about their deaths - in fact the very statement about the stove and the blanket is rhetorical and places the seed in the mind...."no, they were not enough - they obviously froze to death"?

And why not mention the Yeti for those looking for more of an exciting/supernatural cause of the deaths? Or Armenians? Why an "Armenian quiz"?

And what the heck does this even mean???:

"GREETING THE XXI CONVENTION OF INCREASED BIRTHRATE AMONG HIKERS!

PHILOSOPHICAL SEMINAR on the topic of "Love and tourism" takes place daily on the tent premises (central hall). Lectures are given by Dr. Thibeaux and postdoctorate of Love science Dubinina."

Perhaps laying the foundation for the "romance, jealousy and possible infighting explanation"?


Akselrod claims to have seen the original document so it's reasonable to assume that it was copied and the original confiscated.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 07, 2019, 08:48:41 AM
Thanks all for your responses. 

Nigel- you’re possibly right but as clacon says it still doesn’t seem particularly funny so not sure why this comment was included?

Also Clacon’s points on planting ideas are interesting.  I’m not suggesting the pamphlet was planted (although I’m not refuting that it was either).  But what if it was deliberately written as a kind of clue or riddle by someone who had planned the events that followed?  What if it was written sinically rather than satirically?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: cennetkusu on May 07, 2019, 09:52:49 AM

There is no undefined and proven existence. This sentence is irrational in itself.You don't have to prove every existence. If you can't prove it. You don't have to prove and recognize. You don't know everything in the universe. Because human observations and perceptions are very weak. If you believe in a god, you understand that.But if you don't believe it, it's normal not to understand.

In that case I do not understand why you keep referring to a superman, which is a made up fantasy with no definition or proof of existence. This thread is about CREDIBLE explanation. That excludes things that don't conceivably exist in this world.
My beliefs have no consequences on the existence of anything. That is exactly why we should stick with logic and reality.
I believe that unknown, overwhelming power is human. It also explains the best superman. If a man believes in God, he does not seek evidence to believe in something. Even if it's not proof, he can.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 07, 2019, 11:10:18 AM
shock1 shock1
Ummm....when do you think that model in the video was made???

We're talking 1959 here!!

 thumb1

And I guarantee it weighs a lot more then 2 tons. 
My theory would prefer heavier rather than lighter. The British Scorpion scout weighs in at 8 tonnes and was designed about 10 years after this event. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FV101_Scorpion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FV101_Scorpion)

I dont think you are going to solve anything by guessing. Guessing that a heavy vehicle was involved. Guessing what type of vehicle. And so. Just guesses.
Everything that is said here is conjecture? The only people who can solve anything is the Russian state.

Not everything in this Forum is based on conjecture. And a good example of that is that weather forecasts are based on evidence.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 07, 2019, 11:15:42 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.

Yes it is.  Just because the OVERWHELMING FORCE is UNKNOWN doesnt mean it isnt an explanation. Physicists often have to explain things using an unknown quantity.

I'll rephrase. It is a childish explanation and argument. Saying "unknown force" is not an explanation for anybody of more than 5 years of age. (Why superman and not Captain America?) Most of your recent statements here are just about saying the opposite with no reasoning. With that attitude we are not getting anywhere...

All of My statements make sense. I make sure of that. I may occasionally make an error but it doesnt distract from the facts. When you start using silly phrases like you have just done it means you are losing the argument.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 07, 2019, 11:18:25 AM
Yes yes ...  because they have done such a good job thus far.    whist1

The Soviet/Russian state has been withholding the case files and information. I agree they have enough resources to solve it but I also think they won't...

How do you know that the Soviet / Russian State  has been withholding  the case files and information  !  ? 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 07, 2019, 11:26:34 AM
What the hell is a 'superman'?
Unknown coercive and overwhelming force .... But I can say that ... My feelings are strong and my guess is that ...

Well I think thats what the Authorities may have been thinking at the time. And what has changed ?  NOTHING.  This Forum has come at this Dyatlov Mystery from every conceivable angle with no result whatsoever. So maybe we are dealing with an UNKNOWN OVERWHELMING FORCE. And that could be called a SIMPLE EXPLANATION.

That is not even an explanation.
This is the most logical explanation for this event .... All other explanations are ridiculous and unscrupulous and imaginative and unreasonable.

All explanations than an unknown force of a non-existent Superman are unreasonable? Is that some kind of Monty Python & Catch22 crossover?

I really do not see how explaining the DPI by a fairy tale or other non-existent entity involvement is a credible explanation.
You're gonna decide what's going on in this world and what's not? Only God decides. We are not .... And there are so many events in the world that there are many things like superman and so on. There are not only humans and animals in the world ... And the KGB must know more evidence. But the KGB hasn't figured it out.

Only God decides? Which one?

Any entity not defined and not proved is non-existent. Stating otherwise is a logical fallacy.

This superman stuff should be moved to fantasy section.

An entity does not have to be defined or proved. Physicists are often dealing with unknown and unseen quantities. Those quantities could be described as entities.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 07, 2019, 11:29:47 AM

There is no undefined and proven existence. This sentence is irrational in itself.You don't have to prove every existence. If you can't prove it. You don't have to prove and recognize. You don't know everything in the universe. Because human observations and perceptions are very weak. If you believe in a god, you understand that.But if you don't believe it, it's normal not to understand.

In that case I do not understand why you keep referring to a superman, which is a made up fantasy with no definition or proof of existence. This thread is about CREDIBLE explanation. That excludes things that don't conceivably exist in this world.
My beliefs have no consequences on the existence of anything. That is exactly why we should stick with logic and reality.

The unknown is a credible explanation. Ask a PHYSICIST who is worth their salt.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 07, 2019, 11:34:54 AM
LOL - 1950's Communist Tourist humour - an acquired taste.

Very ironical though, as I suppose the answer was unfortunately "no".

I'm skeptical about the "Evening Ortoten" even existing. It seems like it casually plants questions into the minds of those who "read" it....possible explanations about their deaths - in fact the very statement about the stove and the blanket is rhetorical and places the seed in the mind...."no, they were not enough - they obviously froze to death"?

And why not mention the Yeti for those looking for more of an exciting/supernatural cause of the deaths? Or Armenians? Why an "Armenian quiz"?

And what the heck does this even mean???:

"GREETING THE XXI CONVENTION OF INCREASED BIRTHRATE AMONG HIKERS!

PHILOSOPHICAL SEMINAR on the topic of "Love and tourism" takes place daily on the tent premises (central hall). Lectures are given by Dr. Thibeaux and postdoctorate of Love science Dubinina."

Perhaps laying the foundation for the "romance, jealousy and possible infighting explanation"?

Also we dont have the original document only a transcription, ie what someone else wrote  !  ?  Could it have been a plant ie someone doing it to throw any real investigation off the scent so to speak. Or what.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 07, 2019, 12:59:01 PM
Alright, alright.....   lets all take a breather and find a corner. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 07, 2019, 02:32:06 PM
Can I come out of the corner now??

Sarapuk - that's exactly what I'm saying - Why would it have been confiscated at all? Something must have been omitted if the original was confiscated or what was the point of confiscating it?

Also, I think NkZ posted after Teddy's translation of Akselrod's testimony (yes, Nigel, I read it) that it seems as if Akselrod caught wind of the equipment and first 3 bodies being found via message dropped from a plane?? He seems to speak of arriving at the scene of the bodies waiting to be picked up?

"We immediately had to change our boots with felt boots and take part in the loading of the tent and
Sheet 322
Dyatlov group belongings into the helicopter. Three bodies - Kolmogorova, Dyatlov and Doroshenko, lay already brought from the valley near the boot rock on the pass."

So I and NkZ seem to agree he never saw the original tent as it was found? And yet he describes details of how it was set up so incredibly well, its hard to believe he wasn't there. Or he has a great imagination....or he is prone to making things up??

What does this mean: 
"Warned on the responsibility for the first part of Art. 92 of the Criminal Code for refusing to testify and under Art. 95 Criminal Code of the RSFSR for deliberately giving false testimony.
Akselrod (signature)"

Did he see the "Evening Otorten" afterwards and where did he see it?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 07, 2019, 04:48:51 PM
Yes yes ...  because they have done such a good job thus far.    whist1

The Soviet/Russian state has been withholding the case files and information. I agree they have enough resources to solve it but I also think they won't...

How do you know that the Soviet / Russian State  has been withholding  the case files and information  !  ?

Evgeniy Okishev states in his interview that the evidence was confiscated (=withholded by the state) by an officer with the rank of colonel, we have missing photos, missing Kolevatov's "device", no toxicology report and a fine volume of transcrips instead of actual scans. There must have been basis for that and it was discussed many times before. Apart from that, the exclusion zone was imposed. Why? It is not somethig the state does for the fun of it...

All of My statements make sense. I make sure of that. I may occasionally make an error but it doesnt distract from the facts. When you start using silly phrases like you have just done it means you are losing the argument.

I am not talking about errors, everybody makes errors. I am referring to the statements such as "is is a guess" "there is no evidence" etc. that defeat the purpose of analyzing anything. I also find it very cynical to say that the death of 9 young people (who certainly did not die voluntarily or naturally) was caused by an unknown force and we shoud all just deal with it. Saying "we do not know" is not an explanation.

To be constructive, let's get back to the topic.

I keep referring to the Soviet/Russian state because the whole manner how this case was treated stinks. The reasoning to close the case is nonsense, the state attempted to make the funeral less public. No proper experts in respective fields such as medicine, psychology, military experts (there were SAM batteries nearby that shot down G. Powers and there must have been a procedure of recovery for used missiles), scientists (electric event theory), wildlife and native cultures expertsetc... all opinions of such people would have been helpful to establish a better balance of probability of what have happened . Of course, the state chose not to do that. Even recent "reopening" of the case sounds pretty much like bullshit. All of that points to the version that it was more likely the intention of the state to treat this case in certain manner, not just their incompetence. The state had enough resources, technolgies and manpower to do better. Let's not make the same mistakes and pay more respect to the victims than the Soviet/Russian state did until now.

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 08, 2019, 01:35:38 AM
The actions of the state in 1959 are understandable if they believed national security was at risk. What's harder to understand is the current behaviour, which suggests to me that we're still not there in understanding this.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 08, 2019, 04:04:19 AM
The actions of the state in 1959 are understandable if they believed national security was at risk. What's harder to understand is the current behaviour, which suggests to me that we're still not there in understanding this.

In that case (and I am also inclined to believe that rather that simple incompetence) I believe is is the right course of our "investigation" to look further into how matters of national security were treated at that time and establish some balance of probability of the causes that led to demise of the Dyatlov group.

For me, the simplest credible expalnation is one with highest rate of probability. Based on statistics, we can rule out avalanche (never happened on that slope), natural causes of death, suicide and everything with unproven existence (like yeti, aliens, superman etc.) The rest can be broken down by questions such as:

Involvement of other people? Yes/No, What other people? Soldiers/KGB/Khanty/Prisoners/Y.Yuden etc.
If not others, what happened betwwen the group?
Natural event? Yes/No
Weapon test, misguided missile etc...

To all of these it is possible to allocate some probability rate if we had enough knowledge from experts in respective fields. The combination gives us the simplest crdible explanation based on numbers.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 08, 2019, 06:03:20 AM
Likely more to be national embarrassment rather then national security. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 08, 2019, 06:25:51 AM
Likely more to be national embarrassment rather then national security.
Firing missiles at a ghost radar signature (perhaps from Plane1/2) would be pretty embarrassing but it wouldn't justify the expense of what followed. They clearly were acting under an imperative to find all the bodies possibly as a cover for searching for debris in parallel.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Clacon on May 08, 2019, 06:40:39 AM
Wouldn't the simplest possible credible explanation rely on the evidence we do have?

I am a believer in the missile/rocket theory based upon the serious injuries inflicted upon the bodies (which could not have been inflicted by another human being based on the force), however I just keep thinking that there would be evidence of something on the ground - a crater perhaps. Burn marks?

Would there have been sufficient time and snow fall to have covered the crater up? Or do you believe they simply "failed" to report their finding BECAUSE it would prove they fouled up? I believe this is more likely than deploying a secret "clean up" team, don't you?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 08, 2019, 08:04:00 AM
The actions of the state in 1959 are understandable if they believed national security was at risk. What's harder to understand is the current behaviour, which suggests to me that we're still not there in understanding this.

In that case (and I am also inclined to believe that rather that simple incompetence) I believe is is the right course of our "investigation" to look further into how matters of national security were treated at that time and establish some balance of probability of the causes that led to demise of the Dyatlov group.

For me, the simplest credible expalnation is one with highest rate of probability. Based on statistics, we can rule out avalanche (never happened on that slope), natural causes of death, suicide and everything with unproven existence (like yeti, aliens, superman etc.) The rest can be broken down by questions such as:

Involvement of other people? Yes/No, What other people? Soldiers/KGB/Khanty/Prisoners/Y.Yuden etc.
If not others, what happened betwwen the group?
Natural event? Yes/No
Weapon test, misguided missile etc...

To all of these it is possible to allocate some probability rate if we had enough knowledge from experts in respective fields. The combination gives us the simplest crdible explanation based on numbers.

Probably the simplest explanation with high probability is:

1. Some natural event - excluding avalanche . Example- Storm that damaged tent and led to them getting so cold that they could not use their hands?
2. Internal fighting that got out of hand.
3. Possible that one of the group planned to cause their demise.

Given that there is no evidence of anything strange or of any other people being there all other theories must be less likely?
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 08, 2019, 08:14:03 AM
The actions of the state in 1959 are understandable if they believed national security was at risk. What's harder to understand is the current behaviour, which suggests to me that we're still not there in understanding this.

In that case (and I am also inclined to believe that rather that simple incompetence) I believe is is the right course of our "investigation" to look further into how matters of national security were treated at that time and establish some balance of probability of the causes that led to demise of the Dyatlov group.

For me, the simplest credible expalnation is one with highest rate of probability. Based on statistics, we can rule out avalanche (never happened on that slope), natural causes of death, suicide and everything with unproven existence (like yeti, aliens, superman etc.) The rest can be broken down by questions such as:

Involvement of other people? Yes/No, What other people? Soldiers/KGB/Khanty/Prisoners/Y.Yuden etc.
If not others, what happened betwwen the group?
Natural event? Yes/No
Weapon test, misguided missile etc...

To all of these it is possible to allocate some probability rate if we had enough knowledge from experts in respective fields. The combination gives us the simplest crdible explanation based on numbers.

Probably the simplest explanation with high probability is:

1. Some natural event - excluding avalanche . Example- Storm that damaged tent and led to them getting so cold that they could not use their hands?
2. Internal fighting that got out of hand.
3. Possible that one of the group planned to cause their demise.

Given that there is no evidence of anything strange or of any other people being there all other theories must be less likely?
Completely disagree, see - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=430.0    post #8
One thing is clear that the cause was a state secret and had to remain so, hence they had to account for all the bodies.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 08, 2019, 08:35:45 AM
Wouldn't the simplest possible credible explanation rely on the evidence we do have?

I am a believer in the missile/rocket theory based upon the serious injuries inflicted upon the bodies (which could not have been inflicted by another human being based on the force), however I just keep thinking that there would be evidence of something on the ground - a crater perhaps. Burn marks?

Would there have been sufficient time and snow fall to have covered the crater up? Or do you believe they simply "failed" to report their finding BECAUSE it would prove they fouled up? I believe this is more likely than deploying a secret "clean up" team, don't you?

As for the missile, the crater is not necessary (would be in case of an explosion). For example, S-75 Dvina that shot down USAF/CIA U2 with G. Powers is a two-stage missile, warhead is in the front. The second part of the missile is detached in-flight (not sure if it has a parachute) and does not explode. Even that can cause some damage or panic, but not necessarily a crater. As I mentioned before, total of 14 missiles were fired at G.Powers, only 2 were a hit, one killed a soviet pilot. The rest crashed somewhere in the area of Sverdlovsk, most likely in less populated area. We know it was not the first attempt to shoot down a spyplane and these missiles had to undergo testing first (with dummy warheads) and used parts of missiles had to be recovered by the army. I find it far from impossible that one or more tests went wrong or something went wrong in the aftermath. BTW, Ivanov mentioned burned trees in one of the interviews.

Concerning the investigation, I agree that to an extent it could have been just a blatant incompetence. On the other hand, there were more high-ranked officers involved and I find it unlikely that not one of them could have done a better job. Unless, of course it was not the actual objective to conclude the investigation properly (or present it to the public properly).
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 08, 2019, 08:52:48 AM
The actions of the state in 1959 are understandable if they believed national security was at risk. What's harder to understand is the current behaviour, which suggests to me that we're still not there in understanding this.

In that case (and I am also inclined to believe that rather that simple incompetence) I believe is is the right course of our "investigation" to look further into how matters of national security were treated at that time and establish some balance of probability of the causes that led to demise of the Dyatlov group.

For me, the simplest credible expalnation is one with highest rate of probability. Based on statistics, we can rule out avalanche (never happened on that slope), natural causes of death, suicide and everything with unproven existence (like yeti, aliens, superman etc.) The rest can be broken down by questions such as:

Involvement of other people? Yes/No, What other people? Soldiers/KGB/Khanty/Prisoners/Y.Yuden etc.
If not others, what happened betwwen the group?
Natural event? Yes/No
Weapon test, misguided missile etc...

To all of these it is possible to allocate some probability rate if we had enough knowledge from experts in respective fields. The combination gives us the simplest crdible explanation based on numbers.

Probably the simplest explanation with high probability is:

1. Some natural event - excluding avalanche . Example- Storm that damaged tent and led to them getting so cold that they could not use their hands?
2. Internal fighting that got out of hand.
3. Possible that one of the group planned to cause their demise.

Given that there is no evidence of anything strange or of any other people being there all other theories must be less likely?
Completely disagree, see - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=430.0    post #8
One thing is clear that the cause was a state secret and had to remain so, hence they had to account for all the bodies.

Are there any other examples of high ranking military personnel being involved with similar tragic incidents?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 08, 2019, 09:12:42 AM
If we are discussing simple explanations and motives, when it comes to unvoluntary deaths, statistically the most likely options involve money (highly unlikely in this case) or love affair. There could have been some twisted stuff going on until somebody got angry...Given the profiles of the hikers and life stories, I would not be surprised if Semyon an Tibo were a gay couple, the others saw them doing some funny stuff so the two decided to play a revenge prank on them and things got nasty, who knows....Other version may include any of the girls and more than one man who fancied them.

Please bear in mind that it is a far-fetched speculation at best.

I think the jealousy motive is credible.  Could this have resulted in infighting?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 08, 2019, 09:22:45 AM
I don't think an in-group fight would explain all of them perishing. Why would they all leave the tent in the situation? Why wouldn't cooler heads break up the fight? Why wouldn't they return to the tent? If the conditions that night were bad enough outside that returning to the tent was an impossibility, then having a serious brawl without it cooler heads prevailing makes no sense.

And we don't have any evidence that they were on the verge or murdering one another over some resentment or love interest. That's pretty extreme.

Is it possible that one of them had psychotic and suicidal tendencies?

There was a very sad story in the news a few years ago where a copilot locked the cockpit door while the captain was outside and flew a passenger plane into a mountain.

Is it possible that something similar could have happened on Kholat Syakhl that night?

Regards
Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 08, 2019, 09:44:45 AM
The actions of the state in 1959 are understandable if they believed national security was at risk. What's harder to understand is the current behaviour, which suggests to me that we're still not there in understanding this.

In that case (and I am also inclined to believe that rather that simple incompetence) I believe is is the right course of our "investigation" to look further into how matters of national security were treated at that time and establish some balance of probability of the causes that led to demise of the Dyatlov group.

For me, the simplest credible expalnation is one with highest rate of probability. Based on statistics, we can rule out avalanche (never happened on that slope), natural causes of death, suicide and everything with unproven existence (like yeti, aliens, superman etc.) The rest can be broken down by questions such as:

Involvement of other people? Yes/No, What other people? Soldiers/KGB/Khanty/Prisoners/Y.Yuden etc.
If not others, what happened betwwen the group?
Natural event? Yes/No
Weapon test, misguided missile etc...

To all of these it is possible to allocate some probability rate if we had enough knowledge from experts in respective fields. The combination gives us the simplest crdible explanation based on numbers.

Probably the simplest explanation with high probability is:

1. Some natural event - excluding avalanche . Example- Storm that damaged tent and led to them getting so cold that they could not use their hands?
2. Internal fighting that got out of hand.
3. Possible that one of the group planned to cause their demise.

Given that there is no evidence of anything strange or of any other people being there all other theories must be less likely?
Completely disagree, see - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=430.0 (http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=430.0)    post #8
One thing is clear that the cause was a state secret and had to remain so, hence they had to account for all the bodies.

Are there any other examples of high ranking military personnel being involved with similar tragic incidents?

Regards
Star man
Okishev stated he thought the case to be unique. The heavy investment in finding the bodies can be excused as concerns for defection but not a senior member of the state's legal hierarchy travelling hundreds of miles to witness the autopsies which curiously determined death by cold even though only Igor had clear signs of hypothermia.
Imo any theory that doesn't require state secrecy isn't applicable to this case.

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Star man on May 08, 2019, 02:36:51 PM
The actions of the state in 1959 are understandable if they believed national security was at risk. What's harder to understand is the current behaviour, which suggests to me that we're still not there in understanding this.

In that case (and I am also inclined to believe that rather that simple incompetence) I believe is is the right course of our "investigation" to look further into how matters of national security were treated at that time and establish some balance of probability of the causes that led to demise of the Dyatlov group.

For me, the simplest credible expalnation is one with highest rate of probability. Based on statistics, we can rule out avalanche (never happened on that slope), natural causes of death, suicide and everything with unproven existence (like yeti, aliens, superman etc.) The rest can be broken down by questions such as:

Involvement of other people? Yes/No, What other people? Soldiers/KGB/Khanty/Prisoners/Y.Yuden etc.
If not others, what happened betwwen the group?
Natural event? Yes/No
Weapon test, misguided missile etc...

To all of these it is possible to allocate some probability rate if we had enough knowledge from experts in respective fields. The combination gives us the simplest crdible explanation based on numbers.

Probably the simplest explanation with high probability is:

1. Some natural event - excluding avalanche . Example- Storm that damaged tent and led to them getting so cold that they could not use their hands?
2. Internal fighting that got out of hand.
3. Possible that one of the group planned to cause their demise.

Given that there is no evidence of anything strange or of any other people being there all other theories must be less likely?
Completely disagree, see - http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=430.0 (http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=430.0)    post #8
One thing is clear that the cause was a state secret and had to remain so, hence they had to account for all the bodies.

Are there any other examples of high ranking military personnel being involved with similar tragic incidents?

Regards
Star man
Okishev stated he thought the case to be unique. The heavy investment in finding the bodies can be excused as concerns for defection but not a senior member of the state's legal hierarchy travelling hundreds of miles to witness the autopsies which curiously determined death by cold even though only Igor had clear signs of hypothermia.
Imo any theory that doesn't require state secrecy isn't applicable to this case.

It's a really good point Nigel.

Regards

Star man
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 09, 2019, 02:34:02 AM
Missiles possibly attacking a ghost radar signature is the best fit for the facts :-But that imo wouldn't justify the level of secrecy and clampdown that we see here. For this we need something extra, tactical nuclear or natural electrical phenomena displaying lethal capability that could be weaponised? It's curious that all the evidence stated above has the alternative explanation of ball lightning and this was Ivanov's preference and that has to be because he saw evidence to support it. Wrt photographic evidence we have some curious photos and the knowledge that others were confiscated. Yudin said that nearly everyone had a camera and yet we only know of five.
There is another explanation for the secrecy and that's the struggle between Khrushchev and the Stalinists.  Khrushchev was a peacemaker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchev_Thaw) seeking friendlier relations with the West and arguing for huge reforms which included a reduction of the military industrial complex which dominated the Russian economy (it still does today). He visited the US trying to build a relationship and trust with President Eisenhower, sadly this all evaporated in 1960 with the US reinstating U2 flights to investigate nuclear buildup and then Gary Powers which then escalated into the Cuban missile crisis. Obviously the military would resist all these reforms and the stakes would be high, Beria had been executed only 6 years earlier. So in these tensions at home and abroad the case for total secrecy and obedience (or else) can be seen.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: gypsy on May 09, 2019, 03:35:33 AM
Can a ball lightning, or other electric phenomenon appear as a ghost signature on Soviet radar from 1950s? I don't dismiss this theory, it just needs more (at least circumstantial) evidence.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 09, 2019, 04:42:28 AM
Can a ball lightning, or other electric phenomenon appear as a ghost signature on Soviet radar from 1950s? I don't dismiss this theory, it just needs more (at least circumstantial) evidence.
Well that lightning can show up on radar is well known - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar
So it's extremely plausible that other atmospheric electrical phenomena could produce a similar effect.

Radar systems are designed to attempt to ignore this clutter which can be caused by anything from air currents to cosmic rays but whether Soviet radar in 1959 could do this i don't know. However it would probably be the case that if the Soviet military had concerns they would scramble jets to investigate and it's my assertion that the Plane1/2 photos are of a static light emitting object probably discharging ion streams (that commonly result in lightning). So the pilot would report an unknown structure hovering above Kholat Syakhl and that triggered their attack protocol. So the visual confirmation is probably more important than the radar image for the narrative.
A lot depends on the answer to the question - "what is this photo of?"


 (https://i.ibb.co/syQ8wHd/Zolotaryov-camera-11.jpg) (https://ibb.co/SR0Fnr4)
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 09, 2019, 07:05:03 AM
Damaged film from being in a creek for months.

Please remember, this is a very small portion of the negative and was magnified many times.  This 'object' or damaged area was not the focal point of a subject in which the photographer would have naturally and instinctively centered the frame. 

It does not even have wings for petes sake, and if you say its a swept-wing aircraft... Then it would be traveling too fast to photograph. 
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 09, 2019, 08:02:24 AM
Damaged film from being in a creek for months.

Please remember, this is a very small portion of the negative and was magnified many times.  This 'object' or damaged area was not the focal point of a subject in which the photographer would have naturally and instinctively centered the frame. 
This is true for some of the other frames but do we have the negatives for the two Plane shots? I know i'm biased but i'm seeing a cloud of snow and a bit of the slope lit up by a bright object.

It does not even have wings for petes sake, and if you say its a swept-wing aircraft... Then it would be traveling too fast to photograph.
As stated before i think it's a version of this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujGL8QT0lVYN.B. to prevent a headache put it on pause and move along the timebar for the best zoom.
Also as stated before Eagle is a very good fit for credible eyewitness reports of a light surrounded by a mist.
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Loose}{Cannon on May 09, 2019, 09:05:40 AM
Same old foil balloon eh Nigel....
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 09, 2019, 10:18:20 AM
Same old foil balloon eh Nigel....
Look closer, foil balloons aren't surrounded by a blue violet glow. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionized-air_glow

Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: Nigel Evans on May 09, 2019, 12:31:16 PM
Here's a stranger object but the main body of it demonstrates the theory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6aCxU52hXE
Title: Re: Simplest Possible Credible Explanation
Post by: sarapuk on May 09, 2019, 12:54:33 PM
Hi guys. I still have not seen any simple possible credible explanation. I see more theories piled upon theories making things more complicated. Which is why I referred to the UNKNOWN COMPELLING FORCE Theory.