August 26, 2019, 02:12:28 AM
Dyatlov Pass Forum

Author Topic: You want avalanches? Here we go  (Read 838 times)

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February 06, 2019, 06:55:53 AM
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Dominov


Russian prosecutors decided that they will look into the avalanche theory. Ok, lets have a look. Google Earth is a mighty tool to do that in your cozy home.

First we need to locate the approximate area where the group pitched their tent. As a reference I use a picture taken by the first search team.


Ok, thats not bad. It seems that the real location was a litte further down and further north. So far so good.

No let's look for danger zones behind the tent where avalanches could start. These are slopes with inclinations higher than 25%. And yes there is a candidate!



The area in dark magenta is a slope with an average inclination of 26%. There are small areas with inclinations up to 40%. Conclusion: There is a risk that an avalanche could ocurr there. But does it overlap with the location of the tent? Let's see.



Yes. The potential location of the tent slightly overlaps with our avalanche zone. So did we prove that the tent was hit by an avalanche? No. We also see that the north-eastern corner of the Dead Mountain is a windy area (cyan). The patterns in the snow tell us that winds flow over this slope most of the time. This means that snow is carried away most of the time. But avalanches only occur if the amount of snow becomes critical. It's unlikey that a critical mass of snow can be accumulated in this «danger zone». We shouldn't forget neither that it was cold winter when the incident occured. It was cold, windy and it was snowing. Cold snow and wind also lower the likelihood of avalanches. Ok, so we are down to, let's say, a likelihood of 20%. Considering the fact that the tent area most likely didn't overlap with the avalanche danger zone we are down to a likelihood of 10%.

Also considering that the first search team didn't report any signs of an avalanche we are down to 2%. And after having a look at the tent whose entrance was still standing we go down to 1%. The first thing to fall would be the entrance of the tent (on the side of the avalanche zone). Ok, 1%. And yes... is the group's behaviour consistent with an avalanche incident? No. Likelihood down to 0.1% which is still more likely than an alien threat but as likely as the MENK!!!!

Conclusion: Avalanche - Never. The new investigation is a waste of time.

regards

Dominov
« Last Edit: February 06, 2019, 07:15:33 AM by Dominov »

February 06, 2019, 07:51:03 AM
Reply #1
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Nigel Evans


Good images, imo clearly explaining the decision to place the torch and showing that Zina gave up at the foot of the steepest part of the return path.

February 06, 2019, 08:52:15 AM
Reply #2
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Star man

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Good analysis. My skill with google earth is not that good.

So 0.1% is actually more than I was thinking the risk was. So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

February 06, 2019, 10:31:10 AM
Reply #3
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Dominov


Good analysis. My skill with google earth is not that good.

So 0.1% is actually more than I was thinking the risk was. So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

Look, I learned skiing in the Swiss Mountains at the age of six. Although the Dead Mountain has very few steeper parts we would call it a hill for idiots (beginners). The slope of the Dead Mountain is not a killer, nor is it a place where avalanches typically occur, although I found traces of snow slides on the eastern slope. But well... that depends. Weather, season, sun, quality of snow, inclination, wind, temperature, orientation toward the sun are some of the factors.  Snow slides are possible there, but unlikely, especially on the north-eastern side. But... The sound of an explosion can cause snow slabs/planks/slides. That's how we trigger them here artificially in order to minimize the risk for our appreciated tourists. In the morning in the Alps you often hear explosion bangs. Sounds scary.

Would we hear a snow slide in the extreme winter conditions of 1959? I doubt it. No, we wouldn't.

Regards

Dominov

February 06, 2019, 11:24:31 AM
Reply #4
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Russian prosecutors decided that they will look into the avalanche theory. Ok, lets have a look. Google Earth is a mighty tool to do that in your cozy home.

First we need to locate the approximate area where the group pitched their tent. As a reference I use a picture taken by the first search team.


Ok, thats not bad. It seems that the real location was a litte further down and further north. So far so good.

No let's look for danger zones behind the tent where avalanches could start. These are slopes with inclinations higher than 25%. And yes there is a candidate!



The area in dark magenta is a slope with an average inclination of 26%. There are small areas with inclinations up to 40%. Conclusion: There is a risk that an avalanche could ocurr there. But does it overlap with the location of the tent? Let's see.



Yes. The potential location of the tent slightly overlaps with our avalanche zone. So did we prove that the tent was hit by an avalanche? No. We also see that the north-eastern corner of the Dead Mountain is a windy area (cyan). The patterns in the snow tell us that winds flow over this slope most of the time. This means that snow is carried away most of the time. But avalanches only occur if the amount of snow becomes critical. It's unlikey that a critical mass of snow can be accumulated in this «danger zone». We shouldn't forget neither that it was cold winter when the incident occured. It was cold, windy and it was snowing. Cold snow and wind also lower the likelihood of avalanches. Ok, so we are down to, let's say, a likelihood of 20%. Considering the fact that the tent area most likely didn't overlap with the avalanche danger zone we are down to a likelihood of 10%.

Also considering that the first search team didn't report any signs of an avalanche we are down to 2%. And after having a look at the tent whose entrance was still standing we go down to 1%. The first thing to fall would be the entrance of the tent (on the side of the avalanche zone). Ok, 1%. And yes... is the group's behaviour consistent with an avalanche incident? No. Likelihood down to 0.1% which is still more likely than an alien threat but as likely as the MENK!!!!

Conclusion: Avalanche - Never. The new investigation is a waste of time.

regards

Dominov

Good Post Dominov. Yes I think we are going to hear a lot of argument about the AVALANCHE THEORY now that it appears that the Authorities have made it one of their most likelyTheories.  However I wouldnt go as far as saying that the new investigation is a waste of time, because we still dont know all the details and there will be the site investigation beginning in March. And any investigation will put the Authorities on the spot.
DB

February 06, 2019, 11:36:38 AM
Reply #5
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Good analysis. My skill with google earth is not that good.

So 0.1% is actually more than I was thinking the risk was. So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

Look, I learned skiing in the Swiss Mountains at the age of six. Although the Dead Mountain has very few steeper parts we would call it a hill for idiots (beginners). The slope of the Dead Mountain is not a killer, nor is it a place where avalanches typically occur, although I found traces of snow slides on the eastern slope. But well... that depends. Weather, season, sun, quality of snow, inclination, wind, temperature, orientation toward the sun are some of the factors.  Snow slides are possible there, but unlikely, especially on the north-eastern side. But... The sound of an explosion can cause snow slabs/planks/slides. That's how we trigger them here artificially in order to minimize the risk for our appreciated tourists. In the morning in the Alps you often hear explosion bangs. Sounds scary.

Would we hear a snow slide in the extreme winter conditions of 1959? I doubt it. No, we wouldn't.

Regards

Dominov

I believe that the Authorities mentioned Amateur Investigators as one of the reasons for re opening the Case. Yes and if I was them I would call upon some of those Amateur Investigators to assist them. Lets hope this new investigation is not going to be some kind of white wash [ no pun intended ]. I never for one minute thought that an AVALANCHE of any kind caused the EVENT. Your brief analysis just adds more weight to it not being any kind of an AVALANCHE.
DB

February 06, 2019, 02:07:17 PM
Reply #6
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Marchesk


So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

It doesn't make sense for them to go downhill to escape the threat of an avalanche. Instead, they could run a 100 meters to the side opposite of where they think the avalanche is about to hit. And then they could return to try and dig out the tent, or find out otherwise.

Even with a snow-slide, you have 18 hands and an ice axe to dig out the tent. Makes more sense than trying to survive in the woods a mile below.

February 06, 2019, 05:49:21 PM
Reply #7
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Loose}{Cannon

Global Moderator
People act unexpectedly when the earth starts shaking and the sound of a freight train bears down on them at o'dark 30?
All theories are flawed.......    Get Behind Me Satan !!!

February 06, 2019, 07:13:53 PM
Reply #8
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

It doesn't make sense for them to go downhill to escape the threat of an avalanche. Instead, they could run a 100 meters to the side opposite of where they think the avalanche is about to hit. And then they could return to try and dig out the tent, or find out otherwise.

Even with a snow-slide, you have 18 hands and an ice axe to dig out the tent. Makes more sense than trying to survive in the woods a mile below.

After the initial shock of any alleged avalanche it wouldnt take them long to recover their composure. There would be no need to walk a mile without adequate protection from the extreme weather conditions.
DB

February 06, 2019, 11:38:20 PM
Reply #9
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Star man

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The one thing that always sticks in mind with this type theory is Semyon’s camera.

I don’t very much he would have taken his camera outside to take a picture of an avalanche coming his way?

February 07, 2019, 03:47:31 AM
Reply #10
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Dominov


Small addition:

Statement from Maslennikov about the tent before the search team started digging:

"The snow was not much, only drifted by the blizzards in the period of February." This statement is better than every picture.

Dominov

February 07, 2019, 03:56:51 AM
Reply #11
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Dominov


The one thing that always sticks in mind with this type theory is Semyon’s camera.

I don’t very much he would have taken his camera outside to take a picture of an avalanche coming his way?

I seems that Semyon had his camera always attached to his jacket, see:







So, the camera was there if the jacket was there....

Dominov

February 07, 2019, 06:00:24 AM
Reply #12
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Loose}{Cannon

Global Moderator
Quote
After the initial shock of any alleged avalanche it wouldnt take them long to recover their composure. There would be no need to walk a mile without adequate protection from the extreme weather conditions.

Im not saying it actually hit them or the tent.  I do know where there is an avalanche, the danger of another very real. 
All theories are flawed.......    Get Behind Me Satan !!!

February 07, 2019, 08:53:33 AM
Reply #13
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Star man

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Dominov.  Good observation on the camera. So Semyons camera is not a significant piece of evidence!

Regards
Star

February 07, 2019, 09:40:30 AM
Reply #14
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Loose}{Cannon

Global Moderator
Think that's a flashlight.
All theories are flawed.......    Get Behind Me Satan !!!

February 07, 2019, 09:45:30 AM
Reply #15
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Loose}{Cannon

Global Moderator
All theories are flawed.......    Get Behind Me Satan !!!

February 07, 2019, 10:56:32 AM
Reply #16
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Dominov



February 07, 2019, 11:05:29 AM
Reply #17
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Loose}{Cannon

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Dont look the same to me, but being an veteran, I wouldn't be surprised.   Lots of Surplus stuff
All theories are flawed.......    Get Behind Me Satan !!!

February 07, 2019, 12:09:47 PM
Reply #18
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Small addition:

Statement from Maslennikov about the tent before the search team started digging:

"The snow was not much, only drifted by the blizzards in the period of February." This statement is better than every picture.

Dominov

Yes you could say that the Avalanche Theory is on dodgy ground [ no pun intended ]. All the signs point to NO AVALANCHE of any kind whatsoever.  Location not suitable for an avalanche. Weather conditions not suitable for an avalanche. Findings of the search parties not conducive for an avalanche.
DB

February 07, 2019, 03:43:49 PM
Reply #19
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Star man

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Something like this.






Ok thanks LC.  I"ll put the camera back on my list of evidence again. 

Regards

Star