Theories Discussion > Avalanche
Think so?
WAB:
--- Quote from: Marchesk on October 26, 2018, 06:45:34 PM -----------------------------------
--- Quote from: sarapuk on October 26, 2018, 04:50:45 PM ---The avalanche theory appears to be wearing a bit thin.
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I thought an avalanche had been ruled out, but this specific version, which might be better called by a related name, seems to be plausible, and it doesn't require speculating about additional elements not known to be present on the mountain that night.
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Marchesk, let's look at history of this hypothesis. The theory "avalanche" do`t "had been ruled out", instead of has been considered as the fact at that time. Till 90th years of the XX-th century, it at all did not assume absolutely.
In 1996 Moisey (Moses) Axelrod tried to present it as the assumption, considering as the reason of its occurrence rocket explosion above pass. However it is a typical example of the reference of one not proved phenomenon on another too not proved. It happens when the second not proved phenomenon try to prove the first, but not proved phenomenon also.
Availability of the rocket which have arrived on pass, it is fiction completely. It I can tell as the expert and professional in rockets design.
Further, in 2006 … 2010 other person - Evgenie Buyanov, has written the book in which he insists that the reason of this failure is the avalanche. However it is imagination as. Subsequently it changes the opinion that there was a local movement of a layer of snow. It too is imagination. Brawlers were not on this place in the winter and did not study snow and occurrence possibility even small shift of snow. We were engaged in it (together with Alexander Alekseenkov) winter 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. As a result I can firmly tell that on this place of a condition of a condition of snow in different year is that that about any (even the weak) cannot be spoken to a snow motion in general.
Therefore it is impossible speak about any plausibility of this theory as is.
--- Quote from: Marchesk on October 26, 2018, 06:45:34 PM ---One part of the particularly theory I related does make the assumption they wanted to backtrack to the previous campsite where they had setup a storage for food and clothing they didn't carry up the mountain. But I don't recall how far away it actually was.
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It is absolutely improbable. That make it would be necessary to pass almost one mile across a wind direction very precisely maintaining a course in full darkness. And then it was necessary to go one more mile precisely maintaining a course in snow where to pass without use of skis it is impossible. There is a deep snow. From presence of established facts we can say that Dyatlov group left downhill and at the rate to wind direction. That is in a direction of the least resistance to movement. That completely corresponds to a principle of entropy of the made work. Or corresponds to natural law created by the nature.
That on what you give the reference this opinion of whom that of those who discussed this theme, but has not too deeply thought of this thought and does not know conditions well or enough.
Marchesk:
Thank you WAB for the detailed reply. Let me make sure I understand you. In summary,
You have been to the mountain in winter and have concluded that there is no evidence for snow slides there.
The hikers would not have backtracked to the previous campsite where they had built the shelter for items they didn't take with them up the mountain, because the wind and distance at night was too much effort, so they headed downhill from the wind to the nearest tree line.
Also, there wasn't evidence for a rocket test, just speculation?
WAB:
--- Quote from: Marchesk on October 30, 2018, 01:36:17 PM ---Thank you WAB for the detailed reply. Let me make sure I understand you. In summary,
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I will try to answer as much as possible in detail and precisely …
--- Quote from: Marchesk on October 30, 2018, 01:36:17 PM ---You have been to the mountain in winter and have concluded that there is no evidence for snow slides there.
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Yes. I was in this place in the winter 4 times [2 times – in March (2 + 9 days), 1 time – in January (11 days), 1 time – in February (13 days)], 2 times in the summer for specification of a relief and mapgraphical work. Except that Shura (Alexander Alekseenkov) was there in November (6 days) for comparison of snow with what was in 1959. Now winters to be snow became warmer also drops out more. Especially it is difficult for understanding because the winter 1959 in this place was with very small quantity of snow.
--- Quote from: Marchesk on October 30, 2018, 01:36:17 PM ---The hikers would not have backtracked to the previous campsite where they had built the shelter for items they didn't take with them up the mountain, because the wind and distance at night was too much effort, so they headed downhill from the wind to the nearest tree line.
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First I should apologise for an error in the previous message. What to reach a warehouse it would be necessary to go (at the very beginning of this route) not «in a direction of wind lengthwise 1 mile», and «across a direction across wind lengthwise 1 mile».
In the rest you understand all correctly only it is necessary to add 2 more factors:
1. The Second part of a route (to a warehouse) they should go on deep snow where it is impossible to pass without presence of skis.
2. I consider, who they did not choose a movement direction because were in a stressful condition. On another it is impossible to explain that they:
Have left and did not take with itself without what could not survive (and they well understood it). All these things were at them nearby. Nothing prevented to take them in any circumstances.
Have cut tent. It was a unique place where they could survive at such weather. To cut tent meant to destroy such place completely. Or 90 %. No reason except mentality infringement could force to arrive them so. He “ stake one's al” the his lives. Blockages snow, a strong wind and another could not cause their runaway from tent. It is equivalent to if they have broken a window and have jumped out of the plane at the big height only because in salon light has gone out.
--- Quote from: Marchesk on October 30, 2018, 01:36:17 PM ---Also, there wasn't evidence for a rocket test, just speculation?
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Exactly. I well know both the rocket equipment, and history of rocket structure.
1.At that time was not available rockets which could reach there from places where they have really been located. If who that considers that so was, he considers that it was for this purpose what to shoot on the population, instead of on the opponent. Rocket parts settled down near to borders, and a place where there was Dyatlov group is located in the centre of country and to the nearest border there were not less than 3 500 km (~ 2000 miles). Space rockets are excluded:
a) At that time in an orbit of the Earth there were 5 satellites: 4 American satellites (the first USA - Explorer-1, = weight of 5 kg - the companion or 11 pounds, and together with not separated fourth missile stage of 14 kg or 30 pounds; the second USA Vanguard I weight = 1,5 kg or 3,5 pounds; Explorer-3 weight = same equal as Explorer-1; Explorer-4 weight = 25,5 kg or 56 pounds) and one satellite of USSR - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_3 - weight = 1370 kg or 3020 pounds. All companions were in a non-working condition when Dyatlov group was lost. Besides orbits of all American satellites have been inclined to 33 degrees (Explorer-4 orbit was 50 degrees), and the place of events is on 61 degree of Northern width.
b) Space launch there was not in during period when a travel of Dyatlov group. It was not anywhere in the world (in the USSR and in the USA).
c) On February, 02nd 1959 from base "Kapustin Jar" (Astrakhan region) has been made launch rocket R-5m type to will shift Kazakhstan. The actual length of flight of this rocket was equal 920 km (the maximum range is equal 1200 km, and to pass where there was Dyatlov group distance equally ~2000 km) and the flight direction was under 90 degrees to a direction on pass. During all flight behind it telemetering tracking has been spent. The place of falling of the rocket was quickly revealed and is investigated.
d) At that time were not closer than 2000 km other rocket base or places of their distribution.
It is necessary to notice that at that time there were many conversations about any rockets and it was a fashionable theme of conversations. It was time of the first companions and all raved rockets. Therefore here it is a lot of gamble on this theme (about rockets).
Marchesk:
Well, Sergey Shkryabach thought so in his conclusion which Teddy posted in English. That a snow slab from a little ways above the tent slid down onto the tent. They had a brief amount of time while the tent slowed the snow from caving in, allowing them to exit. In the initial panic and powerful winds, they started heading downhill. Soon it became too late to turn around in the wind and locate the buried tent in the dark, so they continued to the tree line to try and start a fire and seek shelter.
It sounds well reasoned. I do have several of questions.
1. Why didn't the search team see evidence for this snow slide? Could enough snow have slid and blown off the tent during the 24 days to disguise what happened? If it was a slab of snow, did it break up or thaw out in slightly warmer weather?
2. Why did Igor, Zina and Rustem think that going back to the tent after reaching the cedar tree was worth trying for when they realized they couldn't turn around and go back and dig it out in those conditions a few meters away while on their descent? It makes no survival sense.
3. What about the flashlight left at the tent?
WAB:
--- Quote from: Marchesk on November 12, 2018, 11:32:30 PM ---Well, Sergey Shkryabach thought so in his conclusion which Teddy posted in English. That a snow slab from a little ways above the tent slid down onto the tent. They had a brief amount of time while the tent slowed the snow from caving in, allowing them to exit. In the initial panic and powerful winds, they started heading downhill. Soon it became too late to turn around in the wind and locate the buried tent in the dark, so they continued to the tree line to try and start a fire and seek shelter.
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How it can be proved, if the one who speaks, has no representation what is on the place? He writes all statements from words in the book Evgeny Buyanov instead of because itself saw conditions on a place of events. Evgeny Buyanov was not in the winter on this place too.
--- Quote from: Marchesk on November 12, 2018, 11:32:30 PM ---It sounds well reasoned. I do have several of questions.
1. Why didn't the search team see evidence for this snow slide? Could enough snow have slid and blown off the tent during the 24 days to disguise what happened? If it was a slab of snow, did it break up or thaw out in slightly warmer weather?
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It is absolutely impossible under laws of physics and conditions on a place of events.
1.Energy of movement snow when all weight stops, pressed to such degree that it is sometimes very difficult for digging a special shovel.
2.In Northern Ural Mountains in current of 4 months (November - March) does not happen thaw. Anyway them never was for the past of 60 years. And the climate has changed towards warming in this time.
3.Warmer weather in January and February on that place, it is temperature not above than-12 … -15C (5 … 10 F).
4.On this place the wind blows off fresh snow so that it means only consolidation as snow crust layer. The snowfall in current of 3 days continuously gives a snow layer about 30 sm (1 ft). If after that the wind from snow on a clone remains nothing blows. Except it dense snow crust which has been generated before and naked stones only.
5.The snow plate has the same structure, as avalanche snow which was condensed at braking, only it consists of the big lumps which have not found there when assorted tent, during any other time.
6.Snow Destruction at инсоляции was possible only for the thickness about 1 mm (~0.04 in). It could be only provided that all time shines the sun and there is no overcast, and temperature not more low than-10S (~3 F). Such conditions for 26 days was not. The sun shone no more than 3 … 5 days in this time, and the clear sky there practically does not happen in general.
--- Quote from: Marchesk on November 12, 2018, 11:32:30 PM ---2. Why did Igor, Zina and Rustem think that going back to the tent after reaching the cedar tree was worth trying for when they realized they couldn't turn around and go back and dig it out in those conditions a few meters away while on their descent? It makes no survival sense.
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At first it is necessary to know precisely that they “went to tent”, instead of have frozen when went downwards on those places where them have found. Such confidence is not present if objectively to look at details on them and round them. On the contrary, there are some signs that they have not reached a cedar. Besides, on a place of events (especially it at clearly night) happens well clearly that in their conditions to find tent above is absolutely not real. It can be casual only. With such probability as if it will be possible to get from gun to target with size 1 … 2 inches from distance 0,5 mi at night and he was blindly.
It not is obviously, but I am ready to prove any it on that place, in the winter and at night. We already did such tests, but under big moon. By the way, the moon was not in sky during events. It should make rising over horizon only at 05.14 AM local time on February, 02 1959. By this time they could not survive any more. Thus it is not known, whether there was overcast and how much it was dense. Besides, this place is in mountains, therefore the moon could appear even more later, than at rising over horizon.
If will attentively look to that things which were very necessary at cedar, but they remained in pockets with these three it turns out that they to fire have not come.
--- Quote from: Marchesk on November 12, 2018, 11:32:30 PM ---3. What about the flashlight left at the tent?
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It is a question which very often set and on which very many can speculate.
I some times spoke with that who have found tent the first (it is Boris Slobtsov and Michael Sharavin) at them the protest when to them ask such question was already developed. Both of them said that precisely do not remember, how it was, and when I already some times asked Boris Slobtsov why at it in poll paper is written down that the lantern has lighted up after has lain 3 weeks on a frost, he at first has told that wrote this paper in 2 months (in April) and did not remember precisely. And still he has told that copied this paper some times as inspector Ivanov forced it to do it. Therefore he wrote all that will come to mind, just it would terminate faster. That that, the lantern could not burn, after it have left for 3 weeks on frost it of rocks that it is impossible. Those electric batteries which then at them could not provide it. In January 2015, on that place, I have specially left on a frost (in tent!) New alcaline batteries. They have ceased to work for LED in 3 or 4 days. The temperature behind a board was at this time from -20C to -25C (-4F …-13F). In 1959 alcaline batteries did not exist, were usual (salt element of Leklanshe) which froze at more high temperature (when more warmly).
From here it is possible to draw a conclusion:
1.To us it is not clear, whether there was this small lamp actually on tent, or it is result of conversations between participants of search? Especially if to consider that once Michael Sharavin has told that it is possible they it have put there when dug tent on February, 26th 1959. All other participants of search (and Boris Slobtsov too) wrote the papers already in 2 months, therefore there were many results of conversations about all that was, and there could be conversations about that was not.
2.Even Boris Slobtsov considered that it is improbably that the lantern has lighted up. It was, for example, at our conversation on June, 01 2006. (http://perevaldyatlova.narod.ru/beseda_1.html - in Russian.) and talk some times later.
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