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Dyatlov Pass Forum

Author Topic: Survey  (Read 1727 times)

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April 17, 2020, 09:14:26 AM
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MDGross


I've listed most of the leading theories that caused the tragedy. And I've given my percentages from most likely to least likely. If enough of you respond to this post, maybe we reduce the list to 4 or 5 favorites. Feel free to add other theories to the list if you want. Just be sure your percentages total to 100%.

Toxic fume from missile.................30
Compelling force of nature.............25
KGB............................................25
Soviet military................................5
Infrasound.....................................5
Magic Mushrooms...........................5
Poison Bread..................................5
UFO..............................................0
Yeti...............................................0
Ball lightening................................0
Fight among themselves..................0
Smoke from stove...........................0
 

April 17, 2020, 01:02:03 PM
Reply #1
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
I've listed most of the leading theories that caused the tragedy. And I've given my percentages from most likely to least likely. If enough of you respond to this post, maybe we reduce the list to 4 or 5 favorites. Feel free to add other theories to the list if you want. Just be sure your percentages total to 100%.

Toxic fume from missile.................30
Compelling force of nature.............25
KGB............................................25
Soviet military................................5
Infrasound.....................................5
Magic Mushrooms...........................5
Poison Bread..................................5
UFO..............................................0
Yeti...............................................0
Ball lightening................................0
Fight among themselves..................0
Smoke from stove...........................0

Interesting but I believe that there has been similar approaches in this Forum.  Also wouldnt there need to be some reasoning for those percentages ie you give 30% to the missile event theory but zero percent to the Stove event theory. Presumably Avalanche comes under the compelling force of nature event.
DB
 

April 17, 2020, 04:48:50 PM
Reply #2
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Tony


I've listed most of the leading theories that caused the tragedy. And I've given my percentages from most likely to least likely. If enough of you respond to this post, maybe we reduce the list to 4 or 5 favorites. Feel free to add other theories to the list if you want. Just be sure your percentages total to 100%.

Toxic fume from missile.................30
Compelling force of nature.............25
KGB............................................25
Soviet military................................5
Infrasound.....................................5
Magic Mushrooms...........................5
Poison Bread..................................5
UFO..............................................0
Yeti...............................................0
Ball lightening................................0
Fight among themselves..................0
Smoke from stove...........................0


- Toxic fumes from a missile - Is there any proof that a missile was near the group on that night? If not, it seems that it would be unlikely. It would definitely explain a lot of their actions but, without proof,
it's hard to validate.
- Compelling force of nature - Since the events in '59, many hikers have been to the pass. Dozens if not hundreds. It seems that in all that time, if it was something repeatable like a compelling force of
nature, that someone would have encountered a situation very similar to what the Dyatlov group experienced that night. But it hasn't. In over 60 years, not a single hiker to the area has experienced a natural force that overtook them with such urgency that they were forced to immediately abandon their campsite and then hike a considerable distance to avoid the threat.
- KGB - Maybe, but why? Also, there is no evidence.
- Soviet military - Again, maybe, but why? If the military was conducting operations in that area, why not close off the entire area? Also, there is no evidence.
- Infrasound - I would group this with the compelling force of nature. A Karman Vortex Street/Infrasound event, like that described in Donnie Eichar's book, has never been observed on the pass.
- Magic Mushrooms - Maybe, but no evidence. Nothing like that was found in the tent or during autopsy. Also, it seems unlikely that they would be a. be doing mushrooms on such a night and b. able to survive so long if they were on something of that nature.
- Poison Bread - Same as mushrooms.
- UFO & Yeti - No evidence.
- Ball Lightening - Their actions don't suggest something as temporary and extremely rare as ball lightning.
- Fight among themselves - Although this could have occurred later on, I don't think it initiated their exit from the tent and down the slope. It seems unlikely that a group of 9 smart and experienced hikers would walk 1500m without shoes and coats because 2 or 3 of them decided to get into a fight back at the tent.
- Smoke from stove - I know this is a very popular theory but, you're right, since the stove was never set up that night there is zero chance it drove them from the tent.

With that said, their exit from the tent does seem that they were forced down the slope by a person(s), but their actions after leaving the tent and reaching the cedar tree, to me, don't suggest that.
"If there exists a fact which can only be thought of as sinister. A fact which can only point to some sinister underpinning, you will never be able to think up all the non-sinister, perfectly valid explanations for that fact."
- Josiah Thomson
 

April 18, 2020, 04:32:10 AM
Reply #3
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Nigel Evans


There are lots of theories that can explain parts of the evidence but any credible theory has to explain ALL the evidence. So i've indicated my percentages as positive (can explain all the evidence) and negative (cannot).


Toxic fumes and shrapnel/swarf from missile(s)..+90 it's an extremely good fit for the evidence. It even explains details like the asymmetric frostbite on the 2 Yuri's, Yuri D's orange powder on a disintegrating woolen jumper (n.b. snow algae is pink not orange). The problem of course is the requisite cleanup operation (which btw is also a good explanation for the ravine deaths....).
Ball lightning...............................+10 electrical discharge creates nitrous oxides which can form nitric acid with contact with water! There are observations of this poorly understood phenomena demonstrating high mass of many tons. And it was Ivanov's chosen theory, the man who saw all the confiscated evidence. 1958 was a record year for sun spots = solar storms, from memory since records began and it's a credible possibility that an extreme electrical event took place. This would fit with the decision to camp on the ridge and Semyon's photos, explaining the two "Plane" photos as hot ion streams.

Murder........................................-10 so armed men forced the group out of the tent and down the slope to build a fire? Then someone constructed a den which became their grave after killing them with superhuman force. Hmm. The group have many injuries small and large but not a single one is conclusively caused by human violence and a lot of the injuries are difficult to explain as human inflicted. Zinaida was found with her "face in blood". She simply laid down and died with no obvious signs of fatal injury with her face oozing blood. Look at her morgue photos and tell me that those aren't acid burns...

Menk/Bear..................................-10 The Yeti/menk phenomena is fascinating, Vladimir Putin states that he has seen a one... Large brown bears can weigh up to 2 tons but of course are normally asleep during this time of the year. So there's a good fit with the big questions, but things start falling down on the details.

Avalanche/slab slide.....................-0 It doesn't even explain why they didn't collect some extra clothing before abandoning the tent and doesn't explain any of the events afterwards. 
 

April 18, 2020, 07:09:35 AM
Reply #4
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MDGross


Tony and sarapuk, I've come up with this list from reading posts of many people and from the website itself. I'm not looking for details of any given scenario. That's been well done in many other posts. This is simply a ranking of theories from most likely to least likely. If you feel 100% likely about a theory, then your post can just be: UFO - 100. See Nigel's post. He has the right idea. He chose to provide some details, but that's not necessary.
 

April 18, 2020, 08:42:33 AM
Reply #5
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cennetkusu


Unknown coercive power 70% Genies 25% KGB 5% At first glance, the rates seem like this. All other possibilities cannot explain this mysterious event in all its aspects. There is something certain about this event. It is also something that they force them to get out of the tent. This is either human, gnome, or unknown coercive force. There is no other option. This event is not the only event in the world .... There have been numerous similar events in the world. The difference of this event from others is that the group takes some actions at a certain time and some group members have severe injuries. They make the Dyatlov event very interesting and interesting.
You're alone and desperate. Connect with God, you won't be alone and you're a saint.
 

April 18, 2020, 09:03:31 AM
Reply #6
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Monty


Forced at gunpoint 40%
Tainted food / poisoning 20%
Minor snow slide then many accidents 20%
UFO of some kind 20%


 

April 19, 2020, 05:22:29 PM
Reply #7
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Rtael


Unknown coercive power 70% Genies 25% KGB 5% At first glance, the rates seem like this. All other possibilities cannot explain this mysterious event in all its aspects. There is something certain about this event. It is also something that they force them to get out of the tent. This is either human, gnome, or unknown coercive force. There is no other option. This event is not the only event in the world .... There have been numerous similar events in the world. The difference of this event from others is that the group takes some actions at a certain time and some group members have severe injuries. They make the Dyatlov event very interesting and interesting.

Probably gnome. 100% gnome!
 

April 26, 2020, 05:33:06 PM
Reply #8
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Naufragia


Well, working with the original list and making a few changes ...
 
Compelling force of nature.........................40
Third-party violence (not KGB/military).......20
Missile (toxic fumes or panic).....................15
Fight amongst themselves.........................10
KGB.........................................................5
Soviet military...........................................5
Poison bread.............................................5
Infrasound................................................0
Magic Mushrooms......................................0
UFO.........................................................0
Yeti..........................................................0
Ball lightning.............................................0
Smoke from stove......................................0
 

May 06, 2020, 01:51:53 AM
Reply #9
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Monika


My opinion:
Compelling force of nature.............................0
Third-party violence (not KGB/military)...........0
Missile (toxic fumes or panic).........................0
Fight amongst themselves.............................0
KGB...........................................................0
Soviet military.............................................0
Poison bread...............................................0
Infrasound..................................................0
Magic Mushrooms........................................0
UFO...........................................................5
Yeti...........................................................0
Ball lightning.............................................85
Smoke from stove........................................0
Katabatic wind...........................................10
 

May 09, 2020, 07:22:39 PM
Reply #10
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JohnnyNumber6


Third-party violence (KGB/military/etc).......80
Missile (toxic fumes or panic).....................10
Fight amongst themselves..........................5
Compelling force of nature..........................5
Poison bread.............................................0
Infrasound................................................0
Magic Mushrooms......................................0
UFO.........................................................0
Yeti..........................................................0
Ball lightning.............................................0
Smoke from stove......................................0

Is there a known chemical weapon of 'missile fume' that will cause severe paranoia, hallucinations for hours?  It not then I would reduce the odds on the missile.
 

May 10, 2020, 01:53:22 PM
Reply #11
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Nigel Evans


Is there a known chemical weapon of 'missile fume' that will cause severe paranoia, hallucinations for hours?  It not then I would reduce the odds on the missile.
Nitrous oxide (laughing gas) can be used as a rocket propellant - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrous_oxide
and hydrazine derivatives have hallucinogenic properties.