Theories Discussion > General Discussion

Temperature and Wind Chill -- No Chance To Survive For An Hour Or Longer

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MDGross:

A chart from the American National Weather Service, weather.gov/bou/windchill, indicates that at -20°F with the wind blowing 20mph, a person wearing a coat, shoes, etc. will feel the first signs of hypothermia in 10 minutes or less. Most of the hikers were critically underdressed and walking in snow. I don't believe they could have even made it to the forest without freezing to death in the extreme conditions that night. The logical conclusion being that they camped on their last night in the forest. That rules out an avalanche, snow slip, katabatic winds and infrasound. It doesn't rule out a tree falling on the tent, carbon monoxide poisoning or intervention from a third party. Of course, the question remains, who moved the tent to the mountain slope and why?

GlennM:
If a tree fell on the tent in the woods, the damage to the tent should be abundantly evident. Further, if the tent was pitched in the forest, there should have been time and proximity to allow them to salvage it before running off to the ravine.The tent could have been cut for ponchos.

My feeling is that your comment on the effects of cold are certainly valid. Who could walk that far dressed as they were in those temperatures? It appears they did.

There is nothing to suggest they were chased nor lured out of the tent on 1079. There is a lot of speculation which is defended by logically constructed conspiracy theories. The same is true about the tent being moved from the forest to the slope.

Whatever caused their plight was transient. That comes down to wind and weather. If they were at 1079, as I believe, why they did not shelter at boot rock or make for the labaz is only explainable if they couldn't see where they were going in a blizzard. On the other hand, following the slope downhill to the forest is easier.

Ziljoe:

--- Quote from: MDGross on December 05, 2024, 02:54:24 PM ---
A chart from the American National Weather Service, weather.gov/bou/windchill, indicates that at -20°F with the wind blowing 20mph, a person wearing a coat, shoes, etc. will feel the first signs of hypothermia in 10 minutes or less. Most of the hikers were critically underdressed and walking in snow. I don't believe they could have even made it to the forest without freezing to death in the extreme conditions that night. The logical conclusion being that they camped on their last night in the forest. That rules out an avalanche, snow slip, katabatic winds and infrasound. It doesn't rule out a tree falling on the tent, carbon monoxide poisoning or intervention from a third party. Of course, the question remains, who moved the tent to the mountain slope and why?

--- End quote ---

The American National Weather Service is not a knowledge based authority on hypothermia. There are a number of variables that come in to play. We also don't know the temperature and wind on the night of the incident, what we can assess is the nature of the raised foot prints , they require a unique set of circumstances.

https://gizmodo.com/raised-footprints-when-snow-steps-up-473092187


A few photos in this link. https://www.amusingplanet.com/2013/04/raised-footprints-in-snow.html#:~:text=Raised%20snow%20footprints%20can%20last,slopes%2C%20as%20potential%20avalanche%20danger.

It says

" Raised snow footprints can last quite a while before all traces of the footprints are eroded away.

Because it requires more than a gale to blow away snow, raised footprints are often taken as an indicator of windslab and in mountain slopes, as potential avalanche danger."

https://epod.usra.edu/blog/2015/03/raised-footprints-in-snow.html

"Special circumstances must occur before this phenomenon can be observed. To begin with, the snow has to have a firm layer beneath it, such as the frozen lens of ice and snow laid down the week before the photo was snapped. Then, a layer of light snow must fall atop this frozen layer. We had a snowfall of several centimeters the day before I noticed the tracks."


It is also reported that there were 2 types of snow prints found. Where they raised footprints stopped, footprints were found where the opposite occurred, the prints had gone through a hard crust/ ice layer and left holes , more to do with what we assume in our minds.

I would say that these raised footprints are one of the biggest and most substantial clues that the tent was erected where it was on 1079 and that there were no outsiders involved.

No outsider would be aware of how to stage such a scene, how to cover their own tracks to not show there were more people than the nine hikers. The logistics to cover their own tracks and simulate only the hikers path to the forest without showing up and down movement of pitching the tent on the slope and then leaving a set of footprints that only go one way can't be done.

As in archaeology, we have a similar set of circumstances regarding the layers in the snow, old and new  snow , this is perhaps more important in the forest and what was found and what was NOT found by the Mansi.


Stratigraphy
"The main principle behind stratigraphy is that of superposition. This says that older things are found below younger things. When archaeologists excavate sites, we find layers of soil, each marking a period of use of the site. Artifacts in the upper layers were laid down after those in lower levels. Stratigraphy is the record of these different layers or strata. By excavating sites and separating the artifacts from each layer, it is possible to see changes through time "

It is the same in the snow layers at the ceder, it is the thaw in May that exposed the clothes, broken branches , sticks and twigs that show the path and activity towards the ravine . There are no other fires or shavings of other trees , there is nothing found or reported in any other layers of the snow. If the hikers had pitched their tent at the ceder then there would be evidence of this and if outsiders were lifting fallen trees of dead bodies there would be loads of evidence for this also. There would be a debris field of bark, twigs, moss all over the area in the snow layers but nothing  is reported by the Mansi.

For me , the logical conclusion is that the tent was on 1079 , no one moved the tent and it would be needless energy spent by any outsider to do such a thing in the cold conditions, then cover their tracks on a mountain slope over 1.5 km ( if that's even possible) and to make footprints in socks going back down the slope then leave the scene at the ceder leaving no tracks anywhere else??? ..

Coming back to the the original point, people made these footprints in socks , someone did it .....we have a tent on the slope, a diary that dates the hikers to that slope and a comment suggesting and talking about camping on a ridge  , 2 photos that show a trench being dug on a slope ,that is NOT in a Forrest . ( And no other student from other hikes has claimed that photo was a different hike from a different year).

When moving , you don't just freeze , activity helps keep the body warm , the nature of the footprints suggests a mild temperature relative to the conditions. 
You can walk and move in the cold , frostbite doesn't happen instantly , we can see them without gloves in many of the photos along their journey, we know socks are a good barrier against the snow when walking ( although not ideal) . Everything thing fits....

MDGross:
Points well taken Ziljoe.  I'm trying to present some alternatives to what is taken for granted most of the time. For example, there's the photo that shows the hikers digging a trench on the slope of 1079. But perhaps they changed their minds and decided to return to the forest. How can we be sure one way or the other?

I'm not a big supporter of staging, but if it did happen, then the stagers would have known that the hikers' bodies were barefooted or in stockings only. So afterwards the stagers could have walked a few hundred feet from the tent (which they've moved to the mountain slope) in bare feet or in stockings.

This is pure speculation, of course. But, it's just taken for granted that the hikers walked almost an hour to the forest then spent one or more hours building a fire, digging a snow den or attempting to walk up the slope. The hikers were brave, in great shape and acclimated to the cold, but in such brutal and unforgiving weather, I do not believe they could stay alive for hours.

Ziljoe:
Thanks MDGross. Hope I didn't sound rude ,I wasn't trying to detract from you're thoughts , as I also go through these processes and speculate. It's difficult to get a foot hold In this mystery.

There is discussion on some forum that they , the hikers , perhaps moved the location of there first attempt to pitch the tent from the last photo to where the tent was found. I can't remember the details or argument but perhaps they dug a trench further up the slope but it was unsuitable and relocated further down the slope?.

My problems with any staging or movement of the bodies is that it's over complicated, if it was staged . It would be easier to make a single track of foot prints going up and down the slope , this would stop any worry about what would be found when search parties arrive , the equipment would need to be moved to the tent scene on the slope from the forest. Yet we have a line of foot prints abreast and the footprints diverge at some point down the slope into a 2 or 3 people leaving the 7 or 6 into some sort of separation.

I don't think it takes an hour down the slope, again I forget the exact time but I'm sure it was found to be about 20 minutes , socks are known to be ok for walking , depending on the exact snow conditions. It wouldn't be great but if they were out of any wind and managed to huddle together, then survival for a few hours , or longer , is possible.

It's those raised foot prints that suggest it was milder and any staging to make it look like it was the hikers footprints would or could show it was staged , ultimately, there is only a 10 day window to stage the scene before potential searchers arrive. If the scene is too fresh then that would mess things up .

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