Dyatlov Pass Forum

Theories Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: tenne on January 05, 2023, 09:29:01 AM

Title: temperature
Post by: tenne on January 05, 2023, 09:29:01 AM
I am seeing a pretty wide range of temperatures being used to talk about that night in the pass. I have seen everything from +1 to -20 so is there any agreement on the temperatures that night? I am using the official sources on this page
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Manti on January 06, 2023, 02:18:35 AM
Just a general climate model: https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/61.761N59.433E (https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/61.761N59.433E)

According to this, in Jan/Feb it can be anywhere between -5C and -35C at the tent location, in the extreme, but daily means are between -15 and -23C. At the moment it's -31C (at 3pm).

I don't know how to calculate the likelihood that it was +1C but it's close to zero.
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: tenne on January 06, 2023, 09:29:30 AM
Quote from: Manti on January 06, 2023, 02:18:35 AM
Just a general climate model: https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/61.761N59.433E (https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/61.761N59.433E)

According to this, in Jan/Feb it can be anywhere between -5C and -35C at the tent location, in the extreme, but daily means are between -15 and -23C. At the moment it's -31C (at 3pm).

I don't know how to calculate the likelihood that it was +1C but it's close to zero.
ouch! we just went through -36 and it really sucks. but the hikers knew the range of temperatures I am assuming, doing lots of that in this case, and knew what they were facing
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Игорь Б. on January 06, 2023, 09:49:30 AM
В ночь с 1 на 2 февраля на ближайшей к перевалу метеостанции в Бурмантово (75 км.) было -28,8 °C.
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Manti on January 06, 2023, 10:43:51 AM
Quote from: Игорь Б. on January 06, 2023, 09:49:30 AM
On the night of February 1-2, the weather station closest to the pass in Burmantovo (75 km) was -28.8 °C.
Yes, and Burmanytovo is at a low elevation of ~130m. So the pass would be colder by a few degrees. And of course more windy.

In my opinion, +1 or -5 at the time of the incident is fantasy
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Игорь Б. on January 06, 2023, 01:12:30 PM
Quote from: Manti on January 06, 2023, 10:43:51 AM
So the pass would be colder by a few degrees.
Перед приходом холодного атмосферного фронта наоборот теплее.

Quote
Холодный фронт первого рода (ХФ-1р) – это фронт, перемещающийся со скоростью 20 – 30 км/ч. Холодный воздух, подтекая клином под теплый, вытесняет его вверх...
Холодный фронт второго рода (ХФ – 2р) –это фронт, быстро движущийся со скоростью = 30 – 70 км/ч. Холодный воздух быстро подтекает под теплый, вытесняя его вертикально вверх...
https://studopedia.ru/3_176269_atmosfernie-fronti.html
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: tenne on January 06, 2023, 05:52:24 PM
Quote from: Игорь Б. on January 06, 2023, 01:12:30 PM
Quote from: Manti on January 06, 2023, 10:43:51 AM
So the pass would be colder by a few degrees.
Перед приходом холодного атмосферного фронта наоборот теплее.

Quote
Холодный фронт первого рода (ХФ-1р) – это фронт, перемещающийся со скоростью 20 – 30 км/ч. Холодный воздух, подтекая клином под теплый, вытесняет его вверх...
Холодный фронт второго рода (ХФ – 2р) –это фронт, быстро движущийся со скоростью = 30 – 70 км/ч. Холодный воздух быстро подтекает под теплый, вытесняя его вертикально вверх...
https://studopedia.ru/3_176269_atmosfernie-fronti.html

so no one knows if there was a warm front or not?
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Игорь Б. on January 06, 2023, 06:23:35 PM
Не тёплый, а холодный фронт. Просто перед приходом холодного фронта всегда происходит потепление. Это обязательно.
Прохождение холодного фронта 1 февраля доказано похолоданием и поворотом ветра против часовой стрелки, что тоже происходит обязательно.
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: GlennM on January 06, 2023, 09:34:27 PM
Temperature is significant in the sense that it induces frostbite, hastens death, affects the integrity of a snow ledge and has some effect on the preservation of prints in the snow. All these effects are known to have happened. Therefore, unless temperature is going to lead to some revelation that people have missed for 6 decades, how does it move the needle in our investigation? Let someone make their point so we can act on it.
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: tenne on January 06, 2023, 11:18:33 PM
I guess it depends on what you believe. if you believe like I do, the snow needs to be soft enough to take a foot print and hard enough to freeze it solid, then the temps make quite a difference.

if you believe that it was warm enough that the group thought it was safe to camp there, then it shows that

if you think it was so cold they never would have set up there no matter what, temps matter
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Игорь Б. on January 06, 2023, 11:24:47 PM
В момент происшествия было тепло. Это доказано подтаиванием и последующим обледенением следов-столбиков.
Следы-столбики, оставленные на перевале в морозную погоду раздувает за один день. Это доказано экспериментально в зимней экспедиции.
Следующее потепление после происшествия случилось лишь через две недели - 13 февраля.
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Osi on January 06, 2023, 11:45:20 PM
There are no tracks leading to the tent area, only tracks leading to the forest direction; largely exactly 1) There was flaky snow on the way to the tent site. There was no storm. There was no storm strong enough to flee into the woods, nor was there any opportunity to go further. It snowed while the tent was being set up and during the stay. Therefore, the tracks leading to the tent were closed. 2) When we get out of the tent, we realize that the snowfall has stopped. They chewed the soft snow and made a mark. After stepping out of the tent, the weather seems to have suddenly turned rough. We upgraded the tracks that were not closed. We can assume that the ideal weather condition of -10 degrees evolves to an extra change up to -35 during the night. The thing that forced them to descend into the forest had to be deadly enough to not give them a choice. Because they knew that it would not be possible to go 1 mile down and achieve this even if they had matches or to light them in the forest.
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Manti on January 07, 2023, 01:32:51 AM
Interesting. In this case, how much warmer would have it been?
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Manti on January 07, 2023, 01:36:08 AM
Quote from: Игорь Б. on January 06, 2023, 01:12:30 PM

Ennen kylmän ilmakehän rintaman saapumista päinvastoin on lämpimämpää.


https://studopedia.ru/3_176269_atmosfernie-fronti.html (https://studopedia.ru/3_176269_atmosfernie-fronti.html)
I mean in this case, how much warmer would it be at the pass? -28+2C? -28+10C?
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Manti on January 07, 2023, 01:48:13 AM
Quote from: Osi on January 06, 2023, 11:45:20 PM
The thing that forced them to descend into the forest had to be deadly enough to not give them a choice. Because they knew that it would not be possible to go 1 mile down and achieve this even if they had matches or to light them in the forest.
Well this is why temperature matters. Because it can be deadly enough to not give them a choice. I just feel like maybe unless one has experienced those conditions first hand, they don't appreciate what the Dyatlov group might have faced.
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: tenne on January 07, 2023, 12:02:00 PM
Quote from: Manti on January 07, 2023, 01:48:13 AM
Quote from: Osi on January 06, 2023, 11:45:20 PM
The thing that forced them to descend into the forest had to be deadly enough to not give them a choice. Because they knew that it would not be possible to go 1 mile down and achieve this even if they had matches or to light them in the forest.
Well this is why temperature matters. Because it can be deadly enough to not give them a choice. I just feel like maybe unless one has experienced those conditions first hand, they don't appreciate what the Dyatlov group might have faced.

I agree, a person has to feel the temps in real life to understand how much they affect mobility. The thing is most people just experiencing this cold for a very brief time would find it not bad because, as strange as it sounds, the cold almost burns until you freeze and it feels okay for a brief minute, then your fingers quit working etc
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Игорь Б. on January 07, 2023, 04:14:25 PM
Quote from: Manti on January 07, 2023, 01:36:08 AM
I mean in this case, how much warmer would it be at the pass? -28+2C -28+10C
-6,3+4 -6,3+6 (в 13 часов дня)
http://1723.ru/forums/index.php?s=&showtopic=5133&view=findpost&p=68954
Title: Re: temperature
Post by: Manti on January 19, 2023, 04:46:41 PM
So, it looks like I was wrong. It can be "unusually warm" at the Dyatlov Pass in January. Like tomorrow:

(https://i.ibb.co/BG50Bwx/Screenshot-2023-01-20-at-00-22-54-Weather-Gora-Otorten-meteoblue.png)




Title: Re: temperature
Post by: amashilu on January 19, 2023, 04:50:59 PM
Игорь Б.-- please translate your posts into English and re-post them here.