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"There was no snowstorm": New investigation conclusions on the weather the night

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PJ:
Yes, I agree with cennetkusu.
Generally we not need any weather analyzes to ruled out that there was strong wind. The tent will be destroyed and blown out within minutes after they abandon it, not possible that it will survive any wind stronger than 80km/h.

From other side this analyzes shows that they not have much chances to survive outside the tent, windchill -45C, no proper clothes. The reason that they left the tent must be very strong...

As well, looks like that the wind got a bit stronger during the night so it could be why they abandon the fire at the cedar and try to hide in the ravine.
at 3am the wind at the cedar was around 9m/s what make windchill about -43C, if they shelter from wind in the ravine the windchill will be just -30C, for sure hiding from wind was much better option than making fire.

And about the analyzes. I think it is very accurate, today the weather modeling based on historical data is very advanced and precises so same as it is used for forecasting weather for next week it could be used to create weather forests for the past as well.

Nigel Evans:
If a good amount of snow had built up on the windward side and the tent collapsed as found then it's plausible that this would prevent the tent from flapping and would explain how the flashlight stayed in position and Igor's jacket stayed in the hole.

Monty:
There was no snow storm? I am still staggered that they would leave their boots and blankets behind. Even if the weather that evening was mild, the general consensus on exit must have been suicide. Or escaping something worse.

Investigator:
The weather certainly must have been dangerous regardless of whether there was a storm, but the key question is, how did they (or at least Igor) perceive things (my sense is that they/Igor thought it would be reasonable to do what they did to try and survive the night, and apprently Russian soldiers did survive this way during WW II)?  We know they left the tent and placed snow on it, then placed one of the two flashlights on that mound of snow (my guess being to prevent the wind from blowing the tent or its contents down the mountain, so they didn't need both flashlights (if there had been a storm, they would want to take both flashlights).  We know they proceeded down the mountain in an orderly way (nobody got blown off their feet).  We know they were able to do quite a bit of work, digging out the den, ripping a lot of branches off the tree (which one would need as a "bed" to prevent hypothermia if one just sat on snow/ice), and starting a fire that was apparently robust and lasted between around 1 and 2 hours.  And they took clothing from the two Yuris and put those items on.  I don't think this would be possible if there was any kind of significant storm.

sarapuk:

--- Quote from: Investigator on September 12, 2020, 06:53:53 PM ---The weather certainly must have been dangerous regardless of whether there was a storm, but the key question is, how did they (or at least Igor) perceive things (my sense is that they/Igor thought it would be reasonable to do what they did to try and survive the night, and apprently Russian soldiers did survive this way during WW II)?  We know they left the tent and placed snow on it, then placed one of the two flashlights on that mound of snow (my guess being to prevent the wind from blowing the tent or its contents down the mountain, so they didn't need both flashlights (if there had been a storm, they would want to take both flashlights).  We know they proceeded down the mountain in an orderly way (nobody got blown off their feet).  We know they were able to do quite a bit of work, digging out the den, ripping a lot of branches off the tree (which one would need as a "bed" to prevent hypothermia if one just sat on snow/ice), and starting a fire that was apparently robust and lasted between around 1 and 2 hours.  And they took clothing from the two Yuris and put those items on.  I don't think this would be possible if there was any kind of significant storm.

--- End quote ---

We assume that they left the Tent sometime after setting it up and presumably having got some sleep first. We dont know if they put snow on the Tent.

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