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"There was no snowstorm": New investigation conclusions on the weather the night
Beluga1303:
We all know the snow drifts in winter, even on the flat land. You don't need a strong storm for that. Light winds are also sufficient if the snowfall is appropriate. The tent stood unprotected in an open area and thus offered an attack surface for snow drifts. We also know from our European winters how quickly snow masses accumulate when snow drifts. This drifting snow might not last long. But the very low temperatures were fatal for the group. They hurriedly fled the tent, hoping to return after the flurry of snow. They sought protection at the edge of the forest by the cedar. Both yuris try to climb the tree to break off branches so that the group can start a fire. Perhaps that explains the skin abrasions. Both yuris stay by the fire, give the other group members some of their clothes. Zina, Igor and Rustem were the first to return to the tent. But they have not found the foot prints, they have blown away from wind. The exertion made them very weak. The cold did the rest. They froze to death. When they did not return, a second group set out, believing they would find the right path. ( The group with Semyion ). But they didn't get far, and fell into a hole piled up through snow, under which as the river. Don't forget it was night. So to say, pitch black. And very, very low temperatures.
If there was a westerly wind, as Igor wrote in his diary, that explains the cuts in the tent on the east side. ( I'm not sure if it was cut on the east side. I may have overlooked or skipped a note). While the group slept in the tent, the snow gradually pushed in the tent on the west side. The main exit may already have been blocked by the snowdrifts. The only option left was to leave the tent as quickly as possible.
And note the entry of Igors diary:
30. January 1959
The wind is strong, south-west, snow begins to fall, heavy clouds, drop in temperature....
31 January 1959
Today the weather is a bit worse wind (west), snow (probably from the pines) because the sky is perfectly clear.
And sorry, in this case I believe more in Igor's diary as in the prosecutor's investigation in 2019
But that's like everything, just pure theory.
Nigel Evans:
--- Quote from: sarapuk on September 14, 2020, 01:27:54 PM ---
--- Quote from: Investigator on September 12, 2020, 06:53:53 PM ---The weather certainly must have been dangerous regardless of whether there was a storm, but the key question is, how did they (or at least Igor) perceive things (my sense is that they/Igor thought it would be reasonable to do what they did to try and survive the night, and apprently Russian soldiers did survive this way during WW II)? We know they left the tent and placed snow on it, then placed one of the two flashlights on that mound of snow (my guess being to prevent the wind from blowing the tent or its contents down the mountain, so they didn't need both flashlights (if there had been a storm, they would want to take both flashlights). We know they proceeded down the mountain in an orderly way (nobody got blown off their feet). We know they were able to do quite a bit of work, digging out the den, ripping a lot of branches off the tree (which one would need as a "bed" to prevent hypothermia if one just sat on snow/ice), and starting a fire that was apparently robust and lasted between around 1 and 2 hours. And they took clothing from the two Yuris and put those items on. I don't think this would be possible if there was any kind of significant storm.
--- End quote ---
We assume that they left the Tent sometime after setting it up and presumably having got some sleep first. We dont know if they put snow on the Tent.
--- End quote ---
Imo an explanation for the flashlight being outside on top of 10cm of snow is that it was for nocturnal toilet trips. There were signs of urination so it fits that someone used it and placed it there after some build up of snow.
Marchesk:
--- Quote from: Nigel Evans on September 07, 2020, 06:43:37 AM ---Agreed the bark only indicates the winds potential in general, not of that night. For this we need a local eye witness. The best i know of is Pashin - https://dyatlovpass.com/case-files-49-50?rbid=17743
"Around the time when hikers were killed even in the village of Vizhay was a strong wind and storm, from which the children were falling down". So if the winds were strong enough in Vizhay to blow children over, how strong on that ridge?
--- End quote ---
"Around that time" is not necessarily the same as that night, and someone recalling strong winds is not the same as an actual weather report, which they apparently had for Vizhay. This is similar to hikers and locals nearby seeing lights in the sky around that time, which is not an exact date, since it doesn't matter if those lights were seen a day before or two days after.
eurocentric:
The temperature differential between the inside and outside of an unheated tent is said to be around 10 degrees for canvas (hemp, and later cotton) and 15+ for modern fabrics, according to camping forums I referenced.
Using the meterological data, flawed as it may be, this implies it would be -9.1 inside that tent if it was -19.1 outside of it at 9pm. You then have to take into consideration the wind chill, because even if they are inside, the tent is in a poor state of repair, with one hole large enough to need blocking with a coat, so cold air will be entering the air space in such an exposed position.
They would arrive near the summit a lot earlier than the data suggests, which states they started setting up the tent at 5pm, because it was sunset at 4:29pm and there's 2 photo's showing them digging the trench in daylight.
That means they would make their ascent and attempt to speed dig a trench and erect a tent by nightfall, possibly arriving there around 3 to 3:30pm, exposed to an estimated wind chill of -28 for several hours, and then spent a stimulating evening sat inside this unheated WW2-era tent. A number of them stripped off outer clothing, which would be to air themselves off from the sweat of their exertions, because without being dry at skin level they could not hope to retain body heat using the insulating air gaps of multiple layers of cotton clothing. And all this without lighting their stove, which may or may not have remained unpacked because they only had enough fuel to last a certain number of hours so were putting that off until 10 or 11pm (they typically rose around 10am).
Hypothermia affects people both physically and mentally. As their core temperature drops they cannot perform basic tasks, they cannot reliably count back from 10, they suffer from amnesia, and they can hallucinate (a potential alternative explanation, if you prefer, for cutting their way out the tent, if they started 'seeing' things, including the yeti they wrote about). They can become lethargic and depressed, and of course, at extremes, they can take off their clothing and make places to hide - paradoxical undressing and terminal burrowing.
The behaviour of the hikers on the ridge matches a lot of what can happen, and all the conditions were perfect for it. They leave without what they need (amnesia), their behaviour is bizarre, they need to be led like schoolchildren down the pass, assembling near the tent, and some tracks deviated during the descent before rejoining the group - hypothermics cannot walk in a straight line, acting as if drunk.
A few years ago the UK had a rare cold snap, though nothing by Russian, Canadian or Scandi standards, at -15. I cycled to a supermarket in the early evening, a 2-mile round trip, perhaps 15 minutes on the road, and I was properly dressed. But when I got back home I immediately thought there was an intruder, "there's someone in the house!", because he had clearly turned the heating on full blast, then I reminded myself I didn't have any central heating, and it was 7 degrees inside.
That short journey, with a 'wind' of 12mph when riding a bike, had exposed me, my face mainly, to a wind chill of -24 and for only 15 minutes, yet it made my home feel like it was 25 degrees+ indoors because of how rapidly it had chilled my core temperature.
https://www.calculator.net/wind-chill-calculator.html
sarapuk:
--- Quote from: eurocentric on October 24, 2020, 11:55:37 AM ---The temperature differential between the inside and outside of an unheated tent is said to be around 10 degrees for canvas (hemp, and later cotton) and 15+ for modern fabrics, according to camping forums I referenced.
Using the meterological data, flawed as it may be, this implies it would be -9.1 inside that tent if it was -19.1 outside of it at 9pm. You then have to take into consideration the wind chill, because even if they are inside, the tent is in a poor state of repair, with one hole large enough to need blocking with a coat, so cold air will be entering the air space in such an exposed position.
They would arrive near the summit a lot earlier than the data suggests, which states they started setting up the tent at 5pm, because it was sunset at 4:29pm and there's 2 photo's showing them digging the trench in daylight.
However lets not forget the acclimatisation factor. And as you are probably aware, people who live in cold climates are better equipped to deal with more extreme cold. So the Dyatlov Group were well equipped, mentality and physically and clothing wise. But the Tent should not have been pitched in such an exposed position. It all kicks off at the Tent. But why would they want to pitch the Tent in such a position. It would have made more sense to pitch the Tent near the Treeline.
That means they would make their ascent and attempt to speed dig a trench and erect a tent by nightfall, possibly arriving there around 3 to 3:30pm, exposed to an estimated wind chill of -28 for several hours, and then spent a stimulating evening sat inside this unheated WW2-era tent. A number of them stripped off outer clothing, which would be to air themselves off from the sweat of their exertions, because without being dry at skin level they could not hope to retain body heat using the insulating air gaps of multiple layers of cotton clothing. And all this without lighting their stove, which may or may not have remained unpacked because they only had enough fuel to last a certain number of hours so were putting that off until 10 or 11pm (they typically rose around 10am).
Hypothermia affects people both physically and mentally. As their core temperature drops they cannot perform basic tasks, they cannot reliably count back from 10, they suffer from amnesia, and they can hallucinate (a potential alternative explanation, if you prefer, for cutting their way out the tent, if they started 'seeing' things, including the yeti they wrote about). They can become lethargic and depressed, and of course, at extremes, they can take off their clothing and make places to hide - paradoxical undressing and terminal burrowing.
The behaviour of the hikers on the ridge matches a lot of what can happen, and all the conditions were perfect for it. They leave without what they need (amnesia), their behaviour is bizarre, they need to be led like schoolchildren down the pass, assembling near the tent, and some tracks deviated during the descent before rejoining the group - hypothermics cannot walk in a straight line, acting as if drunk.
A few years ago the UK had a rare cold snap, though nothing by Russian, Canadian or Scandi standards, at -15. I cycled to a supermarket in the early evening, a 2-mile round trip, perhaps 15 minutes on the road, and I was properly dressed. But when I got back home I immediately thought there was an intruder, "there's someone in the house!", because he had clearly turned the heating on full blast, then I reminded myself I didn't have any central heating, and it was 7 degrees inside.
That short journey, with a 'wind' of 12mph when riding a bike, had exposed me, my face mainly, to a wind chill of -24 and for only 15 minutes, yet it made my home feel like it was 25 degrees+ indoors because of how rapidly it had chilled my core temperature.
https://www.calculator.net/wind-chill-calculator.html
--- End quote ---
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