Meteor

[Senior Maldonado]

Where did the poisonous cloud come from if the fumes where not toxic? Senor Maldonado states both things!
Why should Tibo have climbed the cedar in that scenario?

It would be interesting to see, where I stated that. Perhaps, you refer to Sergey Sogrin's view of the events. Mr. Sogrin indeed says that the tent was affected by poisonous cloud (nitric acid evaporations, if I remember correctly) from the R-12 missile. Thibo, according to him, climbed high on the Cedar tree, fell, and cracked his skull against the tree's protruding roots. But that is Mr.Sogrin's theory, not mine! I consider nuclear powered rocket with environmentally friendly LH2 in the tanks, although H₂ mixed with air burns like hell. Thibo in my theory is a victim of explosion, which caught him and 3 more hikers in the ravine.

You are obviously right about Krivonischenko's burns. They are not beta burns. It's clear that not only his body was burnt, but also pants and underpants. But it also means that he received the burns not in a fire near the Cedar tree. Even if he had been desperate to warm his leg directly in the fire, he would have put off his pants, underpants, the sock before stretching the leg into flame. The hikers were short with clothes, why should he destroy his frost protection?

[Missi]

Of course it's just a theory. I believe, we won't get more than a theory that far away from the actual time the incident happened. But even a theory should be sound and not contradicting itself. That's why I tried to show all details contradicting each other.

I do agree, that there's not only concepts on paper and then there's a functional engine. Yet, the first prototype, according to your excerpt (you might want to share its source?) was much later than 1959. I do agree that there were probably models tested or experiments with parts of the components. But those would have been either small scale or at the direct vicinity of the research institution, not far away in the Urals. If they were real life size, they would've called it a prototype.
I believe you refer to the radioisotope rocket, when you say radioisotope engine? I couldn't find that specific combination of words. I also couldn't find a hint that there were other developers than one in the USA, which in my opinion doesn't mean much. Do you have any sources that hint to the USSR experimenting with those? Referring to the research in the USA it's said however, that it was during the 1960s, so too late.

You are right, I read the summery you provided of Sogrin's statement and took it for your words. Then, if you don't suggest the hikers left intoxicated and in a rush to flee the gases, what do you think was the reason for their hurried abandoning of the tent area? And if they were not intoxicated, what made them pick those horrible choices as to leave their equipment behind?

Still, I'm not sure how those in the ravine would have been that much affected by the assumed explosion. Shouldn't the layout of the land have provided them with protection against a shockwave?

And finally: If we agree, that Krivonischenko's burns are not from a beta emitter and not from the fire by the cedar: What caused them, according to your theory?

Please understand, I'm trying to understand what you suggest happened.

[Senior Maldonado]

Missi, you ask very valid questions, and I hope I will manage to answer at least majority of them.
 

you might want to share its source?

The source is this article:
https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1200421/
 

The first prototype, according to your excerpt was much later than 1959. I do agree that there were probably models tested or experiments with parts of the components.

The article talks about nuclear engines with reactors. These are advanced models that can handle engine's thrust. I fully agree that their prototypes came later than 1959. For DPI I consider much simpler engine, which is powered by radioisotope's natural decay and cannot handle thrust at all -- it works non-stop and cannot accelerate or brake. To build such engine is much easier than to build engine with a reactor. Basically, you need a container with radioisotope and a pump which runs LH2 through the container. The implementation and radioisotope selections could be like that (1 - H₂ tubes; 2 - isotope's container, 3 - nozzle):




 

if you don't suggest the hikers left intoxicated and in a rush to flee the gases, what do you think was the reason for their hurried abandoning of the tent area? And if they were not intoxicated, what made them pick those horrible choices as to leave their equipment behind?

In short, I think that when the rocket bumped the slope, all hikers were inside the tent. The rocket did not explode, but on falling from cosmic hight it produced something like an earthquake, which collapsed northern part of the tent and piled up some amount of snow on it. The natural action in that situation would be to leave the collapsed tent asap. So the cuts were made, and all hikers escaped through them. But they did not run immediately downhill. While most of the hikers grouped at about 7-8 meters from the tent, one or two guys  returned to the tent and strated inspecting it with a torch. At the same time, two other guys, Krivonischenko and Doroshenko, were sent to investigate the fallen object, which created all that mess. It was key to understanbd what had arrived from sky and what were the risks. On approaching the object (rocket), they were affected by cryogenic H₂ and extreme heat from isotope's container (or burning H₂). They signaled the rest to retreat immedeatly, and all the group started descent to the forest.
 

I'm not sure how those in the ravine would have been that much affected by the assumed explosion. Shouldn't the layout of the land have provided them with protection against a shockwave?

The ravine is right in front of the treeline, which means it is not protected by the trees. It is not deep at all. Shock wave from an air explosion, which happens at certain height, would reach the ravine's bottom no problem.

[Ziljoe]

I believe the ravine is side on to any blast coming from the tent direction and the ravine in question has a number of trees Infront of it to perhaps a distance of over 100 meters before we get to the ravine . There are trees before the ravine and the ravine would act as protection if they were in it. There is also a line of trees ( spruce I think) close to where Zina was found that would be in the direct path of any shock wave . We also have the Mansi chum photo that shows a free standing construction that wasn't blown over. Why would all these trees not be damaged?.

[SURI]

The same goes for the den. The shock wave will throw the hikers off and not even touch the den a few meters away? And will it line up the hikers in a row on one square meter?

[Missi]

Thank you, Senior Maldonado. And also thanks for the link. I'll try to look into it, as well as the explanation about the rocket part.

Relating to the evacuation of the tent:
Something I can't judge, because I lack any experience in winter hiking, is the effect the impact would have had. I'm reasonable sure, the earth would react and one would feel it. But would it feel similar to an earthquake? Similar to an avalanche? Would a mountain hiker consider that feeling as sign or maybe possible cause for an avalanche? If so, the escaping could be seem indeed necessary as soon as possible and the cutting of the tent may be reasonable, because once in the forest, one can cope by building shelters. If there was not the feeling of imminent danger, no sane person would have cut open the tent in the middle of a storm on a mountain with days away from other people. In the end, this is a point, I think, we can't prove wrong or right, because we can't ask how they judged the situation and the danger.
I can only say, that, camping in summer, I'm always very reluctant of leaving my tent to evacuate, when there's a storm, even if it's not in the middle of nowhere and I'm not about to freeze when stepping outside. But then again, there's no danger of avalanches there.

Relating to the ravine:
According to Teddy, you have to move through the ravine to get to the cedar. That means, at least the bigger part of the forest is not shielding the ravine from possible blasts. Some sketches and drawn maps show trees between ravine and tent. I don't know, I've never been there and especially I haven't been there back then. It might have changed by now.
I was rather referring to how a blast wave travels and that it might not be possible to get into a ravine. That was indeed a question or maybe a suggestion, because I simply don't know. I'm also not sure if it might be possible to duck close to the nearer edge to get cover from a blast when waiting for it to arrive, after witnessing the light from an explosion. I do somehow doubt however, that injuries as bad as found by the pathologist would have been acquired inside the ravine. Open for proof however. :)

And then there's what SURI and Ziljoe suggested: How would it be possible, that all trees in the vicinity weren't affected at all, if the blast wave was SO hard, it caused that much injury on the hikers?
Plus: Where did it happen, that it didn't leave marks on the tent?

[Senior Maldonado]

I believe the ravine is side on to any blast coming from the tent direction and the ravine in question has a number of trees Infront of it to perhaps a distance of over 100 meters before we get to the ravine . There are trees before the ravine and the ravine would act as protection if they were in it. There is also a line of trees ( spruce I think) close to where Zina was found that would be in the direct path of any shock wave . We also have the Mansi chum photo that shows a free standing construction that wasn't blown over. Why would all these trees not be damaged?.

Ziljoe, I wonder where you see tree protection for the ravine in 1959?



On next picture I will try to illustrate where the rocket landed and where the cloud of H₂ had exploded.

[Senior Maldonado]

The same goes for the den. The shock wave will throw the hikers off and not even touch the den a few meters away? And will it line up the hikers in a row on one square meter?

What do you expect to hapрen with the den? The den had been already laying at the bottom of the ravine. The shock wave mostly acted from UP to DOWN. Thus the den could be pressed deeper into snow only. Probably, that was the case.

Talking about 4 hikers in the ravine -
The shock wave did not send them into long flight for dozens of meters. It kicked them down to the bottom of the ravine, leaving their heels where they were. It's important that Thibo's skull and Ludmila's & Semyon's ribs were not cracked directly by the wave. The bones were cracked by hard landing on the creek's rocks. The rocks were partially covered by snow. Where a body met a rock, it was a crack. Where a body met snow, there was nothing.

[Ziljoe]

Sorry Senior Maldonado , I was assuming the blast was from the crashed rocket close to the tent. As I understand it , the rocket fell from orbit releasing gas or fuel on its way down . 30 minutes later there is the explosion from this gas cloud which I would think is 360 degrees or ultimately in every direction.

I would expect multiple broken branches and a layer of needles and at least twigs at the time of the explosion. This layer of debris would have shown up with the discovery of the clothing and twigs in May would it not?

If you say the cracks and injuries occurred from the impact with the ground then that differs from the blast wave implied by the doctor , I think the autopsy says injuries caused by , fall, crush or squeeze. I think a shock wave t or air blast causes different damage .

In the photo of the ravine you show , many of the shrubs and small trees are buried by the snow in that photo which means 3 meters of snow was drifted into a basically empty ravine in the 3 weeks of the incident . All the hikers would have suffered the blast would they not?

What happened to the crashed rocket out of interest?

[Senior Maldonado]

The rocket fell from orbit releasing gas or fuel on its way down . 30 minutes later there is the explosion from this gas cloud which I would think is 360 degrees or ultimately in every direction.

Ziljoe, let me comment on this.

I think that the rocket was 3-stage, and the upper stage was experimental LH2 radioisotope stage. It was expected that the 3rd stage got to an orbit, where it would be flying powered by its primitive nuclear engine. But it had never reached the orbit. Something went wrong, and instead of flying up, the 3rd stage crashed to the Earth. As the 3rd stage never started, it had full tanks of LH2. Isolated in tanks, hydrogen cannot explode, it needs oxydizer for that. So, an explosion did not happen when the rocket touched the ground. However, the tanks were leaking, H₂ penetrated the air and was dragged by the wind the direction of the forest and the ravine. The explosion happened not in 30 min, but in 3-4 hours after the rocket had landed. The hikers had time to descend to the Cedar tree, to light a fire, to make a den.

Sure, when H₂ cloud blasts in the air, shock wave goes 360 degrees. And it is important that shock wave from such a blast is not like shock wave from exploding a bomb! But here we come to explosions theory, which is a separate topic.

[Senior Maldonado]

What happened to the crashed rocket out of interest?

Evaquation team came to the DP in the next few days after the incident. They took the crashed stage and at the same time discovered the empty and collapsed hiker's tent. Since evaquation team is supposed to evaquate rockets' parts and not corpses, they did not even attempt to find the bodies. They reported their finding to headquarters, and it was further reported to Moscow. And Moscow started shadow criminal case, asking local residents (like Mr. Popov), if they know anything.

Or do you think better idea was to leave the rocket to Mansi?

[Missi]

Okay, I hadn't completely grasped, what you build up here.
Let me get that straight:

The group is inside the tent. The rocket stage crashes close by. The hikers leave the tent in panic, because they think, there's an avalanche or an earthquake. While some still grab some equipment, some go and investigate. Finally they move down the slope, while a cloud of hydrogen builds up from the damaged tanks of liquid hydrogen.
Then what? The ravine 4 were in the ravine, where they were hit by the blast? Why weren't the others with them, if the den seemed to be a good shelter? Why did someone climb that damned tree? Shouldn't the blast have popped their eardrums, if - as you suggest - it was bad enough to pop their eyes? Taking it there was a storm going on, would there even be a cloud of hydrogen? Why did it explode in the first place? If the crash site of the rocket stage was near enough to affect the snow as much that the hikers decide to abandon the tent, why was the tent not ripped to shreds by the explosion? Why weren't there any signs of smoldering on it?

There was a part I wanted to add about the evacuation of the rocket stage, but I can't think of it right now. Maybe it will come to me again later...