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General Discussion / Re: Avalanche theory
« Last post by eurocentric on April 21, 2024, 11:39:02 AM »Only 4 members, including myself, have answered this Poll. Even so none seem to believe this is possible or likely.
I see no point in circular arguments about whether an avalanche was possible up there, it would never be of such magnitude, surely, that the hikers could not dig out their tent, they'd already dug out the trench without shovels, and find themselves usefully deeper in a surrounding insulating wall of snow, the mountain even less likely to produce a second avalanche. That would be more preferable than walking off to your underdressed deaths.
What I have always taken the theory to suggest, its only logic, is that a piece of snow crust directly above the tent and inline with it calved off and slid into the tent, not a localised and wider avalanche. If that happened then a repeat may be possible, impacting with greater velocity, and there is then a logic to abandoning the tent site, though even then it should be possible to retrieve more items than torches to survive elsewhere.
But if such an event was to happen you'd expect the crust above the tent to bear some evidence, leaving behind a snow-filled depression, and for this fresh infill to feel very different underfoot, containing more air than the surrounding crust? Neither witnesses or photographs suggest this, and the uphill side of the tent was not damaged by any deluge, a coat even remained stuffed into a hole on that side, the tent kept its footprint, and ski poles and skis remained in position.
The aftermath does not suggest that 3 weeks earlier something happened connected with any type of snow slide.
I see no point in circular arguments about whether an avalanche was possible up there, it would never be of such magnitude, surely, that the hikers could not dig out their tent, they'd already dug out the trench without shovels, and find themselves usefully deeper in a surrounding insulating wall of snow, the mountain even less likely to produce a second avalanche. That would be more preferable than walking off to your underdressed deaths.
What I have always taken the theory to suggest, its only logic, is that a piece of snow crust directly above the tent and inline with it calved off and slid into the tent, not a localised and wider avalanche. If that happened then a repeat may be possible, impacting with greater velocity, and there is then a logic to abandoning the tent site, though even then it should be possible to retrieve more items than torches to survive elsewhere.
But if such an event was to happen you'd expect the crust above the tent to bear some evidence, leaving behind a snow-filled depression, and for this fresh infill to feel very different underfoot, containing more air than the surrounding crust? Neither witnesses or photographs suggest this, and the uphill side of the tent was not damaged by any deluge, a coat even remained stuffed into a hole on that side, the tent kept its footprint, and ski poles and skis remained in position.
The aftermath does not suggest that 3 weeks earlier something happened connected with any type of snow slide.