April 16, 2024, 01:47:04 PM
Dyatlov Pass Forum

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by WAB on Today at 01:28:52 PM »
Thanks WAB.  Obviously it's not accurate and I'm happy for you to add accuracy. It was a scribble on my phone. But it's the only theory I can put forward for the reason for them to leave the tent. 

You have been there , so your input is always welcome . Obviously I'm a little stubborn in my thinking but I have little else to go with and nothing else seems to give us an explanation as to why they left the tent.

Dear Ziljoe, thank you for your feedback.
As I promised, I present you with a picture of clarification. It can be seen at the link:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UUTldk64geeVY-cKZ_1XSLYcPvFOTWrQ/view?usp=sharing

I can add that the thickness of fresh snow there is never more than 30 cm (1 foot - I have a mistake in the picture, not 1 inch, but 1 foot!). and they did not bury the tent deep, but only leveled the site. as you can see in the picture on the link
https://disk.yandex.ru/i/cG0Vot7p3ZtAYA .
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by Ziljoe on Today at 12:24:19 PM »
Thanks WAB.  Obviously it's not accurate and I'm happy for you to add accuracy. It was a scribble on my phone. But it's the only theory I can put forward for the reason for them to leave the tent. 

You have been there , so your input is always welcome . Obviously I'm a little stubborn in my thinking but I have little else to go with and nothing else seems to give us an explanation as to why they left the tent.
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by WAB on Today at 12:17:07 PM »

I shall treat you to some high end graphics below. Self explanatory.....


Dear Ziljo, this picture is not entirely accurate. If I have the time and ability to work on the computer now, I will draw you a more accurate one.
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by WAB on Today at 12:10:57 PM »
Quote from: GlennM
First, the actual location of the tent is a mattter of dispute
====================
The location of the tent was established with an accuracy of ±5 meters in 2013

I have to disagree.
1. regarding accuracy. Even a very approximate calculation of the technical error in this kind of "measurements" on the spot, gives an error of +/- 10...12 m.
That is why different "clarifiers" have constantly diverging points of the final place.
This can be deliberately neglected, but it is unproductive to argue with the laws of physics (nature).
But it is not only that. If this point will "float" in the range of +/- 50 meters in the direction west - east, nothing will change. Natural conditions even in microscopic differences will be negligible. From the east the place "holds" the bend of the slope, to the west you can move 1...10 m without any changes in conditions. Therefore, numerous "refinements" are meaningless now and, as designers say, are "catching fleas". You can play this game to infinity, but why do it in the case of a tent site? There is an analogy in history: the Parisian Academy of Sciences stopped accepting the " PI " number refinement back in the 19th century. Because it doesn't make any sense, almost all technical calculations are done at 3.1415.
2 Regarding history. In 2013, this trio already had the coordinates of the place with an accuracy of +/- 10 meters, which was determined in 2008 and clarified in 2009. Silence about such information is a forgery. It is interesting that the winter refinement in 2014 gave a difference of 8 m, relative to 2008.
3. On-site coordination. Usually "previous" points are established by GPS coordinates, which were given by their authors. But the usual (not military!, and not geodetic!) gives an error of +/- 6 m in advance and deliberately put there. This is done by government agencies for military security reasons. That is why there are often disputes about "previous researchers" giving an inaccurate location.

by detecting some small objects that in 1959 could have been lost in the immediate vicinity of tent.

These finds cannot give too exact position of the site. Because the specific location of this find lies on the way from the place where the tent was dismantled to the place of sending by helicopter - not far from the obelisk to the memorial plate. It is clear at least because all small objects were thrown directly on the fabric of the tent. When it was carried by drag to the helicopter, they fell there quite densely. What does not happen when one throws without any special intention.

For example, the fastening parts of the “baskets” of ski poles, which at an early stage of the search, rescuers removed from the poles in order to use the latter as avalanche probes. These “baskets”, removed and thrown into the snow next to the tent, which was moved a couple of meters up, are visible in some photos. In addition to them, other small items were found that belonged to the Dyatlovites and apparently fell out of the Tent when it was moved.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. There's a lot of controversy about something like the KAN-delabre, but that's because it's a very obscure design for traveling back then, with a lot of insurmountable flaws. So there is no point in drawing any conclusions about it, as it can't change anything. This is in addition to the fact that none of the search participants identified it and all the time they were surprised by the irrationality of the design and inconvenience in operation.

The 2019 Pokurorsky expedition ignored the exact coordinates of the Tent Place provided to them by the authors of the finds and determined its own, which is located approximately 115 meters north of the true one.

I think that no one can give instructions or advice to the representatives of legal services, but if they did so, it only shows their illiteracy in working in such field studies. And also that they did not aspire to such tasks.

A survey of the slope profile above tent place carried out at 2.5 m intervals in the winter of 2014, shows a snow surface steepness of 16 to 20°.

This is where I want to be clear. The slope above the tent, from the top of the northeastern spur of the mountain to the tent site, according to the results of double measurements in winter (2014 and 2019) had an almost constant slope of 18 degrees. Only at the very top (2...3 meters along the formation) and below the tent the slope was steeper - up to 20...21 degrees. But these were also short sections.

Methodological materials on safety in the mountains, reference and scientific literature on avalanches say that sometimes, under certain weather conditions, snow movement is possible even on slopes 15° 

Yes, such a figure (as the most gentle!) is constantly mentioned by glaciologists and not only them. But avalanches (no matter what it is - "board" or fresh snow) are never "guided" by only one parameter. A whole bunch of such conditions is required there: snow condition, presence of voids - deep frost, roughness of the "substrate", difference in plasticity or fluidity of snow and other. I asked many people, including the respected Prof. Victor Popovnin (he was there with a group of prosecutors, TV and newspaper in 2019) to list all those parameters at which an avalanche can descend from a slope of 15 degrees in a given place. I didn't get an answer, apparently more time was needed to give a definite answer.

PS. There is a lot more to say here about all sorts of components of this phenomenon and details of the place, but unfortunately I do not have the opportunity to write here much and often.
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by GlennM on Today at 12:03:08 PM »
Of the 75 theories, this makes the most practical sense. No wonder Zolo did not write about it. There were better things to do.
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by Ziljoe on Today at 11:53:34 AM »

In the first protocol of 28/2/59 , it is written.

"Camp site is located on the northeast slope of mountain 1079 at the source of Auspiya river. The camp site site is located 300 meters from the top of the mountain 1079 on a slope of 30°. The campsite is a snow-leveled area with 8 pairs of skis at the bottom."

I have no idea if this is 30° as some others say it's as low as 15 degree's. But I wonder if there was fresh snow( as we have the foot prints) . If this fresh snow also built up above the edge of where they cut into the snow for a number of meters , could be 10 meters or 100 meters , there must be a tipping point where the load let's go , even if it's just 15 cm deep fresh snow , then we have about 5 meters
( width of cut into slope )  x 15  meters upwards , x 15 cm snow depth,pouring into the flattened area where the tent is. 

Not an avalanche as we think and know but a slide of snow on to the tent. Somewhat gentle  but enough to collapse the tent and frighten those inside.

I shall treat you to some high end graphics below. Self explanatory.....

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Follow the money! Who gets paid to go out in the middle of nowhere following a hiking plan that was not filed and kills nine able people, who by their wounds demonstrate they had strengtth? It is axiomatic that in forensics everyone brings something into a scene and takes something away. Do we know what the killers brought? Do we know what was taken? I believe it is no in either case. I submit that murder theories, especially military or KGB theories are a cultural mea culpa, The same happens in the States. If I were Pashin, I`d take Zolo's pencil and paper.
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by MDGross on Today at 09:04:48 AM »
Yes, thanks, GlennM. Several years ago, a poster proposed that the snow removed to create the trench in which to pitch the tent fell back on the tent, or at least some of the snow. I think he was onto something and so are you. As I stated in an earlier post, perhaps some of the hikers thought that there was a possibility of an avalanche and when the snow ledge fell onto the tent that possibility seemed to be happening. So they fled the tent for the safety of the forest and the tragic outcome happened over a period of time.
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by GlennM on Today at 07:36:52 AM »
As I understand it, the hikers cut and levelled snow for their tent. This created a ledge. Their tent used the ledge to help block wind and driven snow. It was the buildup of snow on the lip of the ledge which triggered the slide. This means that there was a sufficient depth of snow for the hikers to make their "L" shaped cut. They did not dig into soil.  The vertical cut exposed slabs of different hardness. From the images of the tent, I too note the tent poles and ski poles standing. For me, this suggests a slumping rather than a sliding snow movement.


The angle which everyone wishes to debate appears related to the entire rise of the slope at elevation 880 on 1079. I think this misses the point.  Rather, it is the angle made between the top and bottom of the snow ledge which is critical. I contend that any cut of any height makes a slump a possibiliy. From the evidence of the rescuer photos and the hikers photos, there was a ledge of sufficient height to account for the snow that rested on the tent.

Again, I believe the hikers did a textbook response to their crisis. The problem was they underestimated the distance to the treeline, nor could they predict the duration of the bad weather. The clock ran out on them during which time all subsequent injuries were sustained.
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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY
« Last post by Axelrod on Today at 05:22:48 AM »
In general, the reason for Kuryakov’s dissertation was that when the first rescuers arrived at the site, they did not take photo of the tent. Now only Karelin says (he is still alive) that there were no signs of avalanche presence.
In Chernyshov’s description (see his witness testimony) it seems to be written that there were ski poles around the tent.
How can there be an avalanche if ski poles stick out half a meter around the tent?
Tempalov saw that there were no traces of an avalanche there, but did not take photographs for the others.
And now Kuryakov can defend his dissertations...

A separate interesting question: if there was no avalanche in February 1959, then could it ever be there? This is the question of this topic. An avalanche is only needed there to explain the absence of Bigfoot (Yeti), gnomes and other things in restricted set of versions.

Returning to the topic questions: I don’t think that this place on Earth (with multiple stones and human intact place)  is one of those places where avalanches could occur at slope of 15 degrees.
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