Theories Discussion > General Discussion
Slab avalanche + military testing?
Ryan:
The Gaume and Puzrin article about the slab avalanche seems very compelling, but still somewhat incomplete. I'm considering the following:
1. Military testing of weaponry that are either Sr-90 dirty bombs, or conventional bombs spiked with Sr-90 for analysis of the blast pattern, trigger the slab avalanche.
2. Due to where the bulk of the avalanche hits the tent, and what exactly was under each person at the time, Dubinina and Zolotaryov experience crushing chest injuries, and Thibeaux-Brignolle experiences a skull injury.
3. The entrance to the tent is blocked, so the other hikers cut their way out and rescue everyone.
4. They're now exposed to the wind, possibly in the vicinity of continued ongoing military explosions, their shelter is useless, at least three of the party are seriously injured, and they are likely concerned about another avalanche. Moving downhill to the tree line, starting a fire, and making new shelter seem like the best alternative. They have limited time and ability to dress where they are, so they leave in a hurry.
5. They make a fire at the cedars.
6. They begin digging a shelter in the ravine. The three most critically injured people are put in the shelter. Kolevatov stays with them. The three eventually die from internal injuries, and Kolevatov dies of hypothermia.
7. Dyatlov, Kolmogorova, and Slobodin attempt to return to the tent once it is safe. They may have intended to fetch more supplies and return again to the others, or they may have intended to dig it out, set it up again, and signal for the others that it was safe to return. Before reaching the tent, Dyatlov and Kolmogorova die of hypothermia. Slobodin may have had head injuries from the original avalanche and tried to ignore them, or he may have fallen, injured his head, lost coordination, and injured himself further.
8. Doroshenko and Krivonischenko stay by the fire. One climbs a tree, either for firewood or to help scout for the tent and the other three in the party who are returning to it and falls. Both eventually die of hypothermia.
Meanwhile, the bodies have all been contaminated with Sr-90. The military has no idea anyone was in the vicinity of the tests. (Yes, the group received permission to be there, but in large bureaucracies, the different parts often don't communicate efficiently with each other.) The military doesn't learn of the hikers until after search parties are in the area, at which point it is too late to do anything. (If this had occurred as I suggest above, then I maintain that the military would have wanted to make the bodies and the tent disappear to avoid the negative media attention, but they had no time to do this.) After the first five bodies are discovered and removed, the military quietly suggests that Ivanov should take a Geiger counter with him to ensure everyone's safety, and they later pressure him to close the case with no mention of glowing orbs in the sky (a.k.a. aerial explosions.) The area is closed for years to give the bulk of the Sr-90 in the area a chance to get carried away by snow melt.
Alternately, the slab avalanche happens without military involvement, everything still plays out as above, and at a later time but before any significant additional snowfall could cover the bodies, military bomb testing dispersing Sr-90 manages to contaminate, at a minimum, the four bodies still in the ravine.
As much as I would like to think that there's an explanation not involving a military conspiracy, I still can't otherwise explain the presence of just beta contamination on four of the hikers' clothing. (I've found no record of the other five being tested, so it is possible, and I think most likely, that all nine were contaminated together due to a single cause.) I can think of no natural source, and it seems very unlikely that occupational sources would be pure beta emitters and not a mix of alpha, beta, and gamma. I don't believe lantern mantles could possibly be the cause, or alpha contamination would be observed. Occupational contamination might have affected one or more pieces of clothing worn by one hiker, but it would need some mechanism to spread to all the clothing tested.
Additionally, I find it incredibly unlikely that a search and rescue team in 1959 would even consider bringing a Geiger counter. Even today, in the US, it is not standard practice. People on a S&R team would want to conserve weight by not carrying any unnecessary equipment. That radiation was ever detected at all implies strongly that someone knew that there was a reason to look for radiological contamination, which points back to some kind of state conspiracy.
KFinn:
I understand your theory. I think you are putting a lot of good points together.
The main question that arises with any of the avalanche theories is how would nine pairs of footprints be walking down the ridge if Lyuda and Zolotaryev had the injuries their bodies sustained? Lyuda would have been dead in twenty minutes. Flail rib fractures, especially bilateral with cardiac puncturing, are fatal without extreme medical intervention. Flail rib fractures cause what is known as paradoxical breathing; when the lungs expand on intake, the ribs instead push in, which after a short time, will result in punctured lungs, on top of the puncture to her heart. (Everything in the DPI involves some paradox, lol!). She would not have been able to make it down the ridge. Zolotaryev's were not *as* severe being only on one side, though the threat of a lung puncture was still a given if he dud not get medical help asap, and he also had a head injury compounding things. So when talking about an avalanche of any kind, we need to be able to answer the question of how they could have walked a mile down a ridge in low temperatures with severe injuries.
My other question, and I do not know where to find answers for this. One of the theorists believes that the military was under enhanced service mode while the XXI Congress of the Communist Party was taking place in Moscow. That would mean that military was on restriction and could not leave their bases, assignments, take equipment out, etc. If that is the case, we could rule out most theories involving the military. If it is not the case, that still leaves us open to these options.
You mentioned search and rescue. Are you familiar with it? I've been thinking about putting together an almost mock s&r on the group, starting with the river tributary as a decision point, the cache and the tent on the ridge as decision points. It would not give us answers for why they left the tent, but it could help flesh out some of the events at the cedar and beyond. I'm doing a fair bit of research on lost person behavior and while the group was not lost in the traditional sense, I think we might gain some insight...might not, either, of course. But it would be interesting to see how it played out..
Ryan:
I recently saw the pages in the case document where Vozrozhdenny suggested that Dubinina would be dead in 10-20 minutes and the head wound Thibeaux-Brignolle received would have rendered him unconscious.
Could he have been wrong? These people were young and in excellent physical condition. People who are highly adrenalized, which is what would happen if they had just survived their tent being crushed under snow, can perform some amazing physical feats when they need to do so for survival.
Now, they are exposed on the side of the mountain in the cold, underdressed, and lacking in shelter from the wind. Digging out the tent would take too much time. Three are seriously injured. They probably had considered camping at the tree line earlier and now realized pushing on was a mistake. So the obvious path to survival is to make for the tree line as rapidly as possible, where they have a natural wind break and can make a fire. This is downhill, so gravity is working in their favor.
This also explains the lack of clothing and footwear. Going downhill immediately in socks towards shelter and fire is a higher priority than taking the time to dig footwear out of a flattened tent and then taking the time to put it on while standing around exposed in high winds. Perhaps they felt that once they could get shelter and warmth at the tree line, they could later send the strongest to return for more clothes, blankets, and boots?
As to the footprints being orderly, I can only suggest that the interpretation of several week old footprints in snow is not a perfect science. I think it was more of a scramble to get down the slope, with some hikers helping the injured, and perhaps others went ahead to get a head start on a fire.
If there were military bombs going off, that would provide an even greater incentive for retreating down the slope for cover. Even if not, they thought they survived an avalanche. They didn’t realize it was just limited to the snow immediately above the cutout they made, and probably assumed it originated farther up the mountain and more may be coming at any minute. Either way, being out non that slope with no functioning shelter leaves them very exposed, so going downhill would feel like the right decision. While adrenalized, they may not even initially feel the severity of their lack of clothing and shoes.
I didn’t realize there were any limitations on the military at the time. In that case, I’m completely at a loss. Nine pieces of clothing from all four hikers testing as contaminated with beta-only radiation is just screaming that the military has to be involved.
I’m not personally involved in S&R.
GKM:
Before going further ask yourselves one simple question: Would you camp on that exposed ridge? And if you wouldn't what makes you think they would?
Ryan:
--- Quote from: GKM on February 22, 2021, 03:16:49 AM ---Before going further ask yourselves one simple question: Would you camp on that exposed ridge? And if you wouldn't what makes you think they would?
--- End quote ---
I think that’s a good question. Still, it’s well documented that human decision making lapses due to a desire to get to a destination. Pilots, in particular, are cautioned about it. A lot of aviation accidents happen because people choose to continue in bad weather rather than turn around and divert to the nearest airport. Dyatlov may have been reluctant to give up the altitude he gained.
This also wasn’t just a fun vacation. It was the highest certification offered. So camping on that exposed ridge could be justified as practice for camping in extreme conditions above the tree line, and it would be excellent experience to have under one’s belt. They could have underestimated the weather and conditions they would be facing.
Also, if they didn’t camp there, then it implies the tent was staged. Who would do that and why?
If the military or the KGB wanted to cover it up (maybe because the hikers saw something they shouldn’t have, or they got themselves killed by wandering into a live ordnance exercise) then the tent and the bodies would simply disappear. The response at the time was a public relations disaster that did not look good for the state. It would be far preferable if the search party found nothing. There wouldn’t be awkward questions for a criminal investigation.
I also have a hard time believing anyone else murdered them. Valuable cameras, wrist watches, food, clothing, and gear were all left. I don’t see why anyone would want to take the effort and risk to kill 9 people, steal nothing, and then take further time and effort to stage a crime scene, all in extreme conditions. This is especially true when the people had cameras and the perpetrators couldn’t be sure what evidence the cameras contained.
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