Theories Discussion > Avalanche

Don’t think so...

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Lyndasez:
Had they experienced an avalanche the skis and poles would’ve been disturbed and a vast amount of snow would make an appearance...however an extreme gust of wind could’ve blown a large quantity of snow onto the tent causing them to believe an avalanche was imminent...but I think they would’ve regrouped quick enough.

CalzagheChick:
Well from what I understand, Yuri Yudin himself believed that this had to be the answer. I'm sure he spent his entire life eaten up by the events... I imagine he followed every shred of anything that could help him to understand.

I'm rather surprised there's not more input on the theory of avalanche.  dunno1

Armide:
I don’t think Yuri Y. had a definite answer, I just know that he said that the fight theory was “bullshit”. IIRC he actually believed some parts of the millitary involvement theory later in life. I’m also surprised more people don’t mention an avalanche— it actually feels like it’s one of the more plausible theories. Tell anyone on the outside about the incident and their reaction is usually something along the lines of “oh, they were caught in an avalanche”.

CalzagheChick:
That kind of exactly how I feel. Most people on the outside that haven't devoted nearly the time we have collectively (those of us that are active in the forum anyway) will say one of two things: avalanche or paradoxical undressing. In my time on random message boards before I really became active here, the bigger one is paradoxical undressing. BUT the one sentiment the ties those two things together are that many just don't feel that this is some  huge mystery at all. The rationale being: if you take nine young adults and put them up against high-endurance, treacherous, and unpredictable conditions in Siberia at the middle of Winter then you can safely expect that the obvious bad things are likely to happen on a dangerous mission--hypothermia being at the top of any danger list, blizzard/snowfall/avalanche conditions following closely behind.

And I can't argue that those aren't rational thoughts either. They are. Why complicate something that's not complicated? Is that what we've done ultimately? Have we blown the evidence way out of proportion when the simplest and most obvious answers are in fact THE answers?

Marchesk:

--- Quote from: CalzagheChick on April 30, 2018, 03:44:37 AM ---And I can't argue that those aren't rational thoughts either. They are. Why complicate something that's not complicated? Is that what we've done ultimately? Have we blown the evidence way out of proportion when the simplest and most obvious answers are in fact THE answers?

--- End quote ---

The problem is that the evidence doesn't seem to fit. If they were fleeing an avalanche, why go downhill? It would have taken them some time in those conditions to get to the tree-line. Why wouldn't they reconsider returning to the tent when the avalanche didn't occur?

If they were buried by an avalanche first, then why didn't they dig their shoes and clothing out? The tent wasn't totally buried or swept down the mountain, so it could only have been a smaller one. I don't understand abandoning their only means of survival if it was a smaller avalanche. And if several of them had been seriously hurt, it makes even less sense to walk a mile to the trees.

As for paradoxical undressing, why would that have caused them to leave the tent? There were 9 warm bodies inside a 3 layered tent with a stove, sleeping bags and plenty of clothing. I'm not sure how they could have gotten so cold as to paradoxically cut their way out and flee the area. Before that ever happened, wouldn't you put clothes back on, get in your sleeping bag or fire up the stove once you started feeling cold?

Anyway, most of the people who have been to the mountain in winter, including recent authors, have concluded that there couldn't have been an avalanche in that terrain, and my understanding is there never has been a recorded avalanche on that mountain. It's such an obvious explanation, yet the initial investigator never even considered it as a possibility. Seems like it was ruled out right after finding that the tent only had atmospheric snow on it. Instead, it was high wind, then Mansi, then lights in the sky, and then the unknown compelling force.

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