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March 26, 2019, 09:35:48 AM
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Vietnamka


Part 1.

1) It is cold in the tent. The tent has exactly the same subzero temperature as outside. They have no stove, no sleeping bags and no floor mats. Therefore, from the very beginning I proceed from the assumption that they are not so barely clad in the tent. This is normal. They do not move, but sit and their chances to freeze to death in the tent are not less than down by the fire under the cedar tree.

2) It is cold outside. Whatever happened to them — Yeti, rocket, killers, at all times they were still affected by the cold. At each stage - before the events, at the time, below the cedar and so on. This is factor that doesn't change through out the night. Even if there is not -30°C, but only -10°C, it is still cold.

The question is at what point and how did they react to the cold, when the graver thread (Yeti, rocket, or killers) ceased to be a priority and goes into the background. We know that that they were able to walk 1.5 km, make a fire, begin to gradually die and even take off each other's clothes. So when the main thread subsides, the cold becomes top priority again. We follow their reaction to the cold - the fire, the exchange of clothes.

Lets start form the beginning. Something happens at the tent, something dangerous and life threatening. It creates STRESS situation in the medical sense of the word - an increased protective reaction of the body to the effects of an adverse factor.

Acute phase of stress.
At this moment, in the cerebral cortex is formed a center of dominant arousal, all human mental activity is directed towards one thing - to get out from under the influence, to weaken its effect, to cope.
If the house is on fire - people jump out in shorts and do not think that they will be cold. If there is a child in the house, the mother in the nightgown will run around the house and scream, not realizing how she looks and that she is cold.
This is always accompanied by changes in the endocrine function (adrenaline is released) and the autonomic nervous system (the pupils dilate or contract, the heart begins to beat, the pressure rises, etc.). It is a fact that all these reactions are also protective against cold - heat production increases and a person not only may not feel cold, but may be feel hot.

Subacute phase of stress
1) the person somehow copes with the situation and/or the action of the stress factor begins to weaken. The dominant of the cerebral cortex begins to gradually weaken. The person begins gradually to react to the environment.
Mom saw the child carried out of the house. She still doesn’t care what she looks like, but she’s already covered with a blanket or coat. The released adrenaline is partially consumed and the panic and screaming stage will be replaced with her standing and crying. After her heart raced up to 200 beats per minute, it will now slow down to 120. And so on.

2) the stress factor doesn't go away, but the compensatory abilities of the body are already spent. The stage of decompensation begins, which can lead to death. For example - the child was not found, the mother has a heart attack, she loses consciousness and so on.

Getting out of the stress phase
Everything goes back to normal. A person "returns" to its usual routine.

Now let's apply this to the group and the cold. We have stress that caused fleeing the tent. We have a cold to which they do not react, then they begin to react in different ways. The response to cold will reflect the levels of stress.

1) acute phase
There is only one goal - to get out of the tent and go down. They don't care that they are barely clad and barefoot. They don't take anything with them. At this moment they don't feel the cold.

2) subacute phase
They have moved some distance away and are alive. The effect of stress weakens, and the feeling of the surrounding reality begins to set, and first of all the cold.

As soon as you feel “cold”, you will immediately involuntarily react to this: put your hands in your pocket, put your face into the collar of your jacket, pull the sleeves of your sweater over your hands, fasten your jacket
These are still involuntary minimal reactions, but they happen.
We don't see it in Igor.

They go further, at some point they stop and begin to try to understand - where are they, what's is happening to them, who is lost, where can they make a fire and so on. This is almost a way out of acute stress and analysis of the new situation. This is a return back to reality.

And they feel it - it's cold! They reach inside their pockets for gloves. fix the scarf around the neck and remember that they had insoles, and a mask.
These are still minimal manifestations of self preservation.
We don't see this in neither Igor, Zina nor Rustem.

The next stage of conscious activity is realizing that they are in a group. They have already came enough to their senses, have evaluated the feeling of cold, we know t is getting worse, but they are looking out for their friends. One has two caps - he will give it to someone that doesn't.
Again, we don't see this in the three on the slope, and these questions should have been faced already since they have been walking 1.5 km, looking up place for a fire, this reflects the already normal psychological state and an adequate assessment of the situation.

After they started the fire - and this is an unconditional source of heat - there should have analyzed their situation and come up with some plan to cope with it.
But Igor is still in one cotton sock, without a cap and in an unbuttoned vest!


I do not know how why was Igor in Yudin's vest which he left to Doroshenko, and his own was found in the tent, but Igor does not have time to get out of the acute stage of stress, there is not a single sign. Same applies to Zina and Rustem. Unlike everyone else.

Part 2.

1) Exchange of clothing
  We have to consider two ways of this happening
- active, while alive and conscious, "I have more, you have less - I will share with you"
- passive, post mortem. Someone died, doesn't need the clothes, we will take them.

2) There are 3 groups of hikers а) on the slope (Zina, Rustem, Igor) b) under the cedar (the two Yuris) and c) in the ravine (Lyuda, Zolotaryov, Kolevatov, Tibo).

3) Each member of the group can be considered as a potential donor of clothes and as a potential recipient of clothes. Depending on the condition in which they left the tent. Getting out of the tent is "not equal" to what they were eventually found.

So what do we have
The group on the slope
Zina - unused face mask under her sweater, 2 caps on her head, 4 or 5 pants (I don’t remember exactly, but many), a lot of socks and fur insoles.
Rustem - insoles that is not using but carries under his sweater. despite the fact he has felt boot on one foot only, and the second one is freezing, but he does not insert the insole into the sock.
Igor - he is dressed less than anybody else, especially his feet, and he doesn't have anything on his head, no cap.
Neither Zina, nor Rustem, nor anyone else lends him items of clothing, so that he would at least slightly warm his feet. He does not use clothes from the den to tear pieces to wrap around his legs, as Lyuda did.

The group on the slope does not have any signs that they realized their state of dressing and to do something about it, to help each other. There is not a single sign that they are interacting with someone below. They died BEFORE the opportunity presented to realize their condition and analyze each other's needs. They died before they realized that they were cold at all? But then they died during the descent, at the very beginning.

Group under the cedar
Their clothing was taken off, almost completely. Obviously after death. So the ones that have their clothes on have lived longer than them. Who are they?
- Kolevatov is in Doroshenko's jumpsuit.
- Tibo has Krivonischenko's wrist watch and possibly one of the sweaters is Krivonischenko's too
- Zolotaryov has Doroshenko's hat.

Group in the ravine
This is the most interesting. We are considering clothing that is not used on the flooring of the den.
- Kolevatov has no cap and no shoes. Moreover, he doesn't make himself a winding on his feet from the clothes on the flooring.
- Zolotaryov wears 2 hats, scarf, shoes. He is dressed beautifully and does not share a scarf with anyone and takes Doroshenko's hat to himself, although he has his woolen cap + scarf, and Kolevatov has nothing
- Tibo is beautifully dressed. Boots, warm jacket, cap and fur hat, crumpled unused socks in felt boots, unused gloves. In spite that...
- Lyuda uses her own women's jacket on the windings, and not sweaters and pants lying on the floor, her hat and jacket are removed from her. Obviously post mortem, because it would greatly weaken her in life.

Conclusions:
- The threesome on the slope has no signs of interaction with the other members of the group. There is also no indication that they had time to assess the degree of clothing of each. Did they die first? While descending?
- Second die the two Yuris, and at the same time with them, possibly Lyuda dies too. She is also "death donor" of clothes. And she does not use clothes from the the two Yuris.
- Kolevatov dies after the two Juris, but clearly before Tibo and Zolotaryov. He is also undressed to a degree, post mortem perhaps, (the cap is taken from him for example), but not as much as from the first dead.
Those who remain are dressed as warm as possible, and also don't need to use clothes from the flooring.
- last die Tibo and Semyon.

« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 10:10:02 AM by Teddy »
 

March 26, 2019, 11:17:09 AM
Reply #1
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Nigel Evans


"Even if there is not -30°C, but only -10°C, it is still cold."But there is good evidence that it wasn't even -10C?
  • Persistent footsteps that the wind didn't blow away.
  • Sastrugi around the tent = wind carved slush then refrozen, forced the rescuers to dismount from their skis.
  • Hot spot near tent (although disputed).
  • Rescue party state the snow on the tent was as hard as wood. Softened and refrozen?
  • Two members of the ravine four only had socks as footwear and no gloves but no frostbite even though the descent and den digging must have taken 1-2 hours. (The fire could have helped). Ditto Rustem's left foot, several socks, no frostbite.
  • Nicolai found with his jacket unzipped and gloves in pocket. Semyon top two buttons of jacket undone. They were warm in the den.
1 to 4 suggest that up at the ridge it wasn't very cold at all and that if the wind direction was from the west then warm air would continue down to the forest.
 

March 26, 2019, 12:05:23 PM
Reply #2

Clacon

Guest
What about the fact that only Zina and Doroshenko had the only reported evidence of frostbite though??

Unless you count the "tips of the fingers on right hand are dark brown color, minor skin abrasions on the soft tissue" on Krivonischenko as possibly being frostbite too?

Would that mean they were exposed to the cold longer? Why didn't all 5 outside of the Ravine 4 have frostbite?
 

March 26, 2019, 12:13:08 PM
Reply #3
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Nigel Evans




The frostbite profile is a curiosity. If the 2 Yuris die early why do they display frostbite when the others don't?
 

March 26, 2019, 03:00:20 PM
Reply #4
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
This is a lot of speculation about how the COLD may have affected the Dyatlov Group. We dont know the exact temperatures or any wind chill factors. Some bodies were found with apparent frostbite. The overall behavior of the Group after they left their Tent maybe suggests that they were not overwhelmed by the cold before they met their demise.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 10:37:34 PM by Teddy »
DB
 

March 26, 2019, 04:42:21 PM
Reply #5
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Star man

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
If Igor, zina and Rustem died while defending the slope and before they came out of any acute shock, then what did they die from?  They couldn't have died from hypothermia so quickly.

You make some interesting points about the exchange and sharing of clothing, but there may be more simple explanations.  For example, Lyuda may have have used her own clothing to wrap her foot, before the 2 Yuris died, and she herself may have been in a critically injured condition before the clothes were removed from the Yuris and shared out. She may have been moved to the ravine and therefore could not use the additional clothes on the floor.

Also, the cold may not have been as much of a threat as is believed.  They had a fire. 

It's also possible that given the stressful situation they were not thinking straight and didnt realise all thendifferentmitemsmof clothing they had.  Gloves in pockets, spare socks, insoles etc.

Regards

Star man
 

March 26, 2019, 08:10:43 PM
Reply #6
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Vietnamka


What about the fact that only Zina and Doroshenko had the only reported evidence of frostbite though??

Unless you count the "tips of the fingers on right hand are dark brown color,

Would that mean they were exposed to the cold longer? Why didn't all 5 outside of the Ravine 4 have frostbite?
1) Frostbite has the stages of development. "Dry necrosis" is a 4th stage  appears on the 7-10 days of  treatment.
1st stage  - blisters that are not described in autopsi reports.
"tips of the fingers on right hand are dark brown color" looks  more like postmortem drying, not frostbite.

2)
Quote
minor skin abrasions on the soft tissue" on Krivonischenko as possibly being frostbite too?
"The external ears are swollen and blue-red in color"  - it looks like frostbite 1 gr.

3)
Quote
Why didn't all 5 outside of the Ravine 4 have frostbite?

maybe because it is  clear that they did not die immediately after leaving the tent?




 

March 26, 2019, 08:34:00 PM
Reply #7
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Nordlander


The way people have laid it out makes me think that Igor, Zena, and Rustem didn't put on their additional clothes because they were tied up. Their death positions and abrasions on wrists and ankles suggest the same. (Leaving people outside in the cold was a way of killing them in the gulag without leaving any telltale signs if the authorities investigated. I've also found a case where some Soviets did the same to some Khanty young people resistant to collectivization and schooling). In my view, someone had really beaten the stuffing out of Rustem: a terrible head blow. And Zina had that baton-shaped wound around the kidneys. Not sure about Igor, though the "boxers' knuckles" suggest he had been fighting for his life.

By the way, I think Zena's ski mask under her other clothes is a result of post-WWII survival training; you were supposed to put your outdoor clothes on under your sweater during the night to dry them out.We were taught to do this with our gloves. And also to take everything out of your backpack and to lay it flat on the floor of the tent as an extra layer between you and the ground.

I tend to think the Yuris got frostbite when they were hiding in the tree and before the killers returned to finish them off. I've always assumed that the three were trying to get back to the tent, but they also could have broken away from the group when they were being frogmarched down the hill. They didn't take the Yuris' clothes either because they bolted from the group or because when they left to try to crawl back to the tent, the Yuren were still alive. It's hard to determine the order here, though I like the idea of an acute and post-acute phase. What's interesting is that the group engaged in all the survival strategies: fighting back, making a fire, and building a snow shelter. All were in vain.
 

March 26, 2019, 08:34:28 PM
Reply #8
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Vietnamka


   sarapuk
Quote
This is a lot of speculation about how the COLD may have affected the Dyatlov Group
Сold affects everyone. The impact of cold is determined by the physical processes of heat production and heat loss, not by speculation.
Heat can be lost, in turn, through the processes of conduction and convection which directly depend on the clothes.
Quote
We dont know the exact temperatures or any wind chill factors.
we can be pretty sure it was  below zero and this is more than enough for "cold"
Quote
Some bodies were found with apparent frostbite
This is not confirmed  in narrative of autopsi reports.
Quote
The overall behaviour of the Group after they left their Tent maybe suggests that they were not overwhelmed by the cold before they met their demise
Of course not. They took off  clothes from the dead friends just for fun.
 

March 26, 2019, 09:19:37 PM
Reply #9
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Vietnamka


Star man

Quote
If Igor, zina and Rustem died while defending the slope and before they came out of any acute shock, then what did they die from?  They couldn't have died from hypothermia so quickly.
couldn't. This is a mystery of "Dyatlov pass")))
Quote
For example, Lyuda may have have used her own clothing to wrap her foot, before the 2 Yuris died, and she herself may have been in a critically injured condition before the clothes were removed from the Yuris and shared out. She may have been moved to the ravine and therefore could not use the additional clothes on the floor.

You're right. But it excludes death all of 4th in the ravine at the same time. Due to snow fall in ravine, for example.

Quote
They had a fire. 
they used the clothes from the dead (it is difficult psychologically)

Quote
It's also possible that given the stressful situation they were not thinking straight and didnt realise all thendifferentmitemsmof clothing they had
If you accidentally touch a hot one, you don’t think, you just  pull back your hand))
There are always physiological reactions that do not depend on what you think.


 

March 26, 2019, 11:28:01 PM
Reply #10
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WAB


   sarapuk
Quote
This is a lot of speculation about how the COLD may have affected the Dyatlov Group
Сold affects everyone. The impact of cold is determined by the physical processes of heat production and heat loss, not by speculation.

Yes.

Heat can be lost, in turn, through the processes of conduction and convection which directly depend on the clothes.

Galina, you as always наступаете на те же грабли forget one of the most important making losses of heat - radiation. There is dependence in the fourth degree, and the share of these losses on cold makes essential part - about 30 % at temperature nearby-10С (14F). Dependence very strongly means raises with cold increase.
This theme very extensive, I have what tell about it (to the physicist and practice losses of heat), but I now have no the big time for this theme. Here it is necessary write very in detail all that would be clear to all. I hardly have time write shortly in themes where I can that shortly tell by means of memory. It is possible shortly (and only after one week) to discuss it in Russian in personal correspondence, and then you here shortly write result.
 

March 27, 2019, 01:36:33 AM
Reply #11
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Nigel Evans


   sarapuk
Quote
This is a lot of speculation about how the COLD may have affected the Dyatlov Group
Сold affects everyone. The impact of cold is determined by the physical processes of heat production and heat loss, not by speculation.

Yes.

Heat can be lost, in turn, through the processes of conduction and convection which directly depend on the clothes.

Galina, you as always наступаете на те же грабли forget one of the most important making losses of heat - radiation. There is dependence in the fourth degree, and the share of these losses on cold makes essential part - about 30 % at temperature nearby-10С (14F). Dependence very strongly means raises with cold increase.
This theme very extensive, I have what tell about it (to the physicist and practice losses of heat), but I now have no the big time for this theme. Here it is necessary write very in detail all that would be clear to all. I hardly have time write shortly in themes where I can that shortly tell by means of memory. It is possible shortly (and only after one week) to discuss it in Russian in personal correspondence, and then you here shortly write result.
You are referring to - https://byjus.com/physics/stefan-boltzmann-law/
P=eσA(T4−Tc4)
T is the radiator’s temperature
Tc is surrounding temperature (in this case the air temperature).

So if their bodies are at 35C and the air temp is -10C then the power loss factor is 4100625. If the air temp is 0C then 1500625. Nearly 3x the rate of energy loss -10C versus 0C.

Now if say the air temp was +5C (ground temp still 0C) then the factor becomes 810000 a difference of 5x.

So a difference of a few degrees significantly affects heat loss and hence survival times.

This is before considering the wind chill -


If the wind was as strong as reported in the nearest settlement (and confirmed in the photographs) then they should have experienced frost bite in 15minutes? Only half way down the descent?
Unless the air was curiously warm?



« Last Edit: March 27, 2019, 01:45:45 AM by Nigel Evans »
 

March 27, 2019, 05:57:27 AM
Reply #12
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Star man

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
   sarapuk
Quote
This is a lot of speculation about how the COLD may have affected the Dyatlov Group
Сold affects everyone. The impact of cold is determined by the physical processes of heat production and heat loss, not by speculation.

Yes.

Heat can be lost, in turn, through the processes of conduction and convection which directly depend on the clothes.

Galina, you as always наступаете на те же грабли forget one of the most important making losses of heat - radiation. There is dependence in the fourth degree, and the share of these losses on cold makes essential part - about 30 % at temperature nearby-10С (14F). Dependence very strongly means raises with cold increase.
This theme very extensive, I have what tell about it (to the physicist and practice losses of heat), but I now have no the big time for this theme. Here it is necessary write very in detail all that would be clear to all. I hardly have time write shortly in themes where I can that shortly tell by means of memory. It is possible shortly (and only after one week) to discuss it in Russian in personal correspondence, and then you here shortly write result.
You are referring to - https://byjus.com/physics/stefan-boltzmann-law/
P=eσA(T4−Tc4)
T is the radiator’s temperature
Tc is surrounding temperature (in this case the air temperature).

So if their bodies are at 35C and the air temp is -10C then the power loss factor is 4100625. If the air temp is 0C then 1500625. Nearly 3x the rate of energy loss -10C versus 0C.

Now if say the air temp was +5C (ground temp still 0C) then the factor becomes 810000 a difference of 5x.

So a difference of a few degrees significantly affects heat loss and hence survival times.

This is before considering the wind chill -


If the wind was as strong as reported in the nearest settlement (and confirmed in the photographs) then they should have experienced frost bite in 15minutes? Only half way down the descent?
Unless the air was curiously warm?

The radiative heat loss though depend on surface temp of clothing in the main, rather than body temperature.  So you also need to understand temperature gradient across the clothing.  What happens if you factor this in?  What are differences in rates then?
Regards
Star man
 

March 27, 2019, 06:27:35 AM
Reply #13
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Nigel Evans



The radiative heat loss though depend on surface temp of clothing in the main, rather than body temperature.  So you also need to understand temperature gradient across the clothing.  What happens if you factor this in?  What are differences in rates then?
Regards
Star man
Of course (my numbers are just to show how relatively small differences in the air temperature can significantly affect the rate of heat loss by multiples and they weren't naked of course). Clothing will reduce the absolute value calculated by the formula but not the rate profile which will still follow Tdiff4
 

March 27, 2019, 07:24:46 AM
Reply #14
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Monika


It is very difficult to judge how groups were formed in the forest.
I find the most logical answer to me:
The group on the slope: I suppose all three went alongside each other or just behind each other towards a tent for clothes and shoes. Igor died first and Zina could take his cap, respectively other things. That's why Igor didn't have much to wear when he was found.
“Zina, nor Rustem, nor anyone else lends him items of clothing”.
I guess, he probably lost his clothes after his death.

The question is whether, after the death of the two Yuris, the other seven decided to divide their roles, and the trio went to the tent to take the clothes and boots, and the four others were supposed to build the den for all group (seven people). Or, after the death of Yuris, they separated into two groups, and each group cared for itself. Since the size of the den was only for four people, I tend to prefer the latter. Perhaps Igor and Zolotarev as two dominant personalities did not agree on how to deal with the situation and the group split.
On the other hand, between the fire and the den a many pieces of clothing were scattered on the way. This would in turn suggest that they wanted to navigate the trio when they returned from the tent to know how to get to the den.  So they divided the work and planned to meet again later that day.
The fact that some of Dyatlovs were less dressed doesn't mean the rest were selfish and refused to share clothes with each other.
 

March 27, 2019, 08:21:59 AM
Reply #15
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Nigel Evans



The radiative heat loss though depend on surface temp of clothing in the main, rather than body temperature.  So you also need to understand temperature gradient across the clothing.  What happens if you factor this in?  What are differences in rates then?
Regards
Star man
Of course (my numbers are just to show how relatively small differences in the air temperature can significantly affect the rate of heat loss by multiples and they weren't naked of course). Clothing will reduce the absolute value calculated by the formula but not the rate profile which will still follow Tdiff4


Just thought. Wet clothing wouldn't reduce the external temperature of the clothing significantly as water is a good heat conductor.
 

March 27, 2019, 09:45:51 AM
Reply #16
Offline

Star man

Case-Files Achievement Recipient

The radiative heat loss though depend on surface temp of clothing in the main, rather than body temperature.  So you also need to understand temperature gradient across the clothing.  What happens if you factor this in?  What are differences in rates then?
Regards
Star man
Of course (my numbers are just to show how relatively small differences in the air temperature can significantly affect the rate of heat loss by multiples and they weren't naked of course). Clothing will reduce the absolute value calculated by the formula but not the rate profile which will still follow Tdiff4


Just thought. Wet clothing wouldn't reduce the external temperature of the clothing significantly as water is a good heat conductor.

True.  Of the various heat loss mechanisms I suspect that convection will be the dominant factor especially if the clothes were wet and there is also cooling due to evaporation. 

So is it possible to do thermal analysis to consider the range of heat loss vs heat generate and therefore make some judgments on time vs core body temperature?  And then understand corresponding physical and mental state?

Regards
Star man
 

March 27, 2019, 01:59:00 PM
Reply #17
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
The way people have laid it out makes me think that Igor, Zena, and Rustem didn't put on their additional clothes because they were tied up. Their death positions and abrasions on wrists and ankles suggest the same. (Leaving people outside in the cold was a way of killing them in the gulag without leaving any telltale signs if the authorities investigated. I've also found a case where some Soviets did the same to some Khanty young people resistant to collectivization and schooling). In my view, someone had really beaten the stuffing out of Rustem: a terrible head blow. And Zina had that baton-shaped wound around the kidneys. Not sure about Igor, though the "boxers' knuckles" suggest he had been fighting for his life.

By the way, I think Zena's ski mask under her other clothes is a result of post-WWII survival training; you were supposed to put your outdoor clothes on under your sweater during the night to dry them out.We were taught to do this with our gloves. And also to take everything out of your backpack and to lay it flat on the floor of the tent as an extra layer between you and the ground.

I tend to think the Yuris got frostbite when they were hiding in the tree and before the killers returned to finish them off. I've always assumed that the three were trying to get back to the tent, but they also could have broken away from the group when they were being frogmarched down the hill. They didn't take the Yuris' clothes either because they bolted from the group or because when they left to try to crawl back to the tent, the Yuren were still alive. It's hard to determine the order here, though I like the idea of an acute and post-acute phase. What's interesting is that the group engaged in all the survival strategies: fighting back, making a fire, and building a snow shelter. All were in vain.

So what are the supposed KILLERS doing while some of the Dyatlov Group walk a mile to the Cedar Tree etc ? Are they just wondering around bidding their time ? And is it likely that any of the Dyatlov Group would be trying to get back to the Tent with KILLERS around about them  ?  Doesnt make sense to Me.
DB
 

March 27, 2019, 02:08:48 PM
Reply #18
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
   sarapuk
Quote
This is a lot of speculation about how the COLD may have affected the Dyatlov Group
Сold affects everyone. The impact of cold is determined by the physical processes of heat production and heat loss, not by speculation.
Heat can be lost, in turn, through the processes of conduction and convection which directly depend on the clothes.
Quote
We dont know the exact temperatures or any wind chill factors.
we can be pretty sure it was  below zero and this is more than enough for "cold"
Quote
Some bodies were found with apparent frostbite
This is not confirmed  in narrative of autopsi reports.
Quote
The overall behaviour of the Group after they left their Tent maybe suggests that they were not overwhelmed by the cold before they met their demise
Of course not. They took off  clothes from the dead friends just for fun.

What Iam suggesting is that the COLD was not a factor in their leaving the Tent and eventual demise. The reason I suggest this is because of their behaviour as we know it from all accounts. And we would need to know the exact temperatures at play and any wind chill factors. Nothing suggests to Me that they were all overcome with Cold in the Tent. Nothing suggests to Me that the Cold killed them all. There are enough stories of people surviving in extreme low temperatures, temperatures much much lower than likely encountered at the Tent of the Dyatlov Group.
DB
 

March 27, 2019, 02:40:22 PM
Reply #19
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
   sarapuk
Quote
This is a lot of speculation about how the COLD may have affected the Dyatlov Group
Сold affects everyone. The impact of cold is determined by the physical processes of heat production and heat loss, not by speculation.

Yes.

Heat can be lost, in turn, through the processes of conduction and convection which directly depend on the clothes.

Galina, you as always наступаете на те же грабли forget one of the most important making losses of heat - radiation. There is dependence in the fourth degree, and the share of these losses on cold makes essential part - about 30 % at temperature nearby-10С (14F). Dependence very strongly means raises with cold increase.
This theme very extensive, I have what tell about it (to the physicist and practice losses of heat), but I now have no the big time for this theme. Here it is necessary write very in detail all that would be clear to all. I hardly have time write shortly in themes where I can that shortly tell by means of memory. It is possible shortly (and only after one week) to discuss it in Russian in personal correspondence, and then you here shortly write result.
You are referring to - https://byjus.com/physics/stefan-boltzmann-law/
P=eσA(T4−Tc4)
T is the radiator’s temperature
Tc is surrounding temperature (in this case the air temperature).

So if their bodies are at 35C and the air temp is -10C then the power loss factor is 4100625. If the air temp is 0C then 1500625. Nearly 3x the rate of energy loss -10C versus 0C.

Now if say the air temp was +5C (ground temp still 0C) then the factor becomes 810000 a difference of 5x.

So a difference of a few degrees significantly affects heat loss and hence survival times.

This is before considering the wind chill -


If the wind was as strong as reported in the nearest settlement (and confirmed in the photographs) then they should have experienced frost bite in 15minutes? Only half way down the descent?
Unless the air was curiously warm?

Interesting figures. We know that the temperatures around about the time of the Incident were normal for that part of the Urals, because its stated in the Diaries. Also they knew about the wind factor to expect. We know that there is absolutely no reason why such weather conditions should drive them from their Tent. They were confident enough to camp in a fairly exposed position.
DB
 

March 27, 2019, 02:41:36 PM
Reply #20
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Nigel Evans



So is it possible to do thermal analysis to consider the range of heat loss vs heat generate and therefore make some judgments on time vs core body temperature?  And then understand corresponding physical and mental state?

Regards
Star man
I'll leave it in your good hands!  kewl1
Here's some bedtime reading - https://www3.nd.edu/~nsl/Lectures/mphysics/Medical%20Physics/Part%20I.%20Physics%20of%20the%20Body/Chapter%202.%20Energy%20Household%20of%20the%20Body/2.3%20Heat%20losses%20of%20the%20body/Heat%20losses%20of%20the%20body.pdf
 

March 27, 2019, 03:46:09 PM
Reply #21
Offline

Star man

Case-Files Achievement Recipient

So is it possible to do thermal analysis to consider the range of heat loss vs heat generate and therefore make some judgments on time vs core body temperature?  And then understand corresponding physical and mental state?

Regards
Star man
I'll leave it in your good hands!  kewl1
Here's some bedtime reading - https://www3.nd.edu/~nsl/Lectures/mphysics/Medical%20Physics/Part%20I.%20Physics%20of%20the%20Body/Chapter%202.%20Energy%20Household%20of%20the%20Body/2.3%20Heat%20losses%20of%20the%20body/Heat%20losses%20of%20the%20body.pdf

Thanks for the link.  Thinking about it in more detail, there are probably too many variables to get any meaningful results.  How much heat they were generating through work vs heat loss, vs body mass, vs wet or dry vs wind chill etc étude

Regards

Star man
 

March 27, 2019, 08:21:39 PM
Reply #22
Offline

Nordlander


As for what I think the killers were doing when the hikers walked a mile downhill to the cedar, I think the assailants were the ones who frogmarched them, probably on short skis or snowshoes. There's one military-type boot print visible in one photo, and the residue of a ski track in another. The flashlight on the tent and the items on the ground near the tent suggest the students were told to throw down their belongings and especially some of their protective clothing, probably at knife point. The other belongings on the snow by the cedar indicate a similar "shaking down" happened there--note the money on the ground there. I think the attackers may have even built the fire there.

Then I think they went back to the tent to look for something they thought the students had stolen and waited for the young people to die. Hence the ski pole that was cut--they'd used it to prop up the tent. Upon leaving the tent, they destroyed it so the students couldn't return to it.

I don't think cold killed any of them alone. I've hiked and camped in extreme temperatures, and if you stay active and your digits are protected, you can usually fight off hypothermia, especially in a group. I do think the first five were left to die in the cold, though, but only after being tied up.

I'm a professor at a college of criminal justice, so I tend to think in terms of crime scenes, but I think the event started as what may have looked to the students like a mugging. As for what they were looking for, that is a separate question.
 

March 28, 2019, 11:52:14 AM
Reply #23

Clacon

Guest
So the Yuris were hiding up a tree while the attackers started a fire? Or did they climb the tree after the attackers went after the 3 found on the slope?

Because of one of the Yuris' singed hair and both of them having burned clothing, I assume that they may have fallen out of the tree into the fire. I don't believe the burns were a result of them drying clothing on the stove pipe. How would you fit that into the attacker narrative?

You have excellent points about the boot and shortski snow prints and the theory explains why there's clothing scattered between tent and cedar. However, there was also clothing scattered between the cedar and ravine, supposedly so they could find their way back to the cedar???
 I don't know if you think they Ravine 4 escaped early on and tried to build a den or that they were marched into the ravine and the den was a setup? Zolotaryov and Dubinina's injuries apparently could not have been inflicted by another human being - the force was too great. Also in favour of the Rav 4 not being involved in the attack is the fact that they were wearing clothing that belonged to others that had assumedly died before them. What attackers would allow them to do that? Plus Zolotaryov's camera???

My only other question regarding the theory is that the only evidence of binding was on Igor's ankles I believe. In the autopsies, there is no mention of abrasions/bruises around wrists of all three and ankles of Zina and Rustem.

Thanks :)
 

March 28, 2019, 03:39:30 PM
Reply #24
Offline

sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
As for what I think the killers were doing when the hikers walked a mile downhill to the cedar, I think the assailants were the ones who frogmarched them, probably on short skis or snowshoes. There's one military-type boot print visible in one photo, and the residue of a ski track in another. The flashlight on the tent and the items on the ground near the tent suggest the students were told to throw down their belongings and especially some of their protective clothing, probably at knife point. The other belongings on the snow by the cedar indicate a similar "shaking down" happened there--note the money on the ground there. I think the attackers may have even built the fire there.

Then I think they went back to the tent to look for something they thought the students had stolen and waited for the young people to die. Hence the ski pole that was cut--they'd used it to prop up the tent. Upon leaving the tent, they destroyed it so the students couldn't return to it.

I don't think cold killed any of them alone. I've hiked and camped in extreme temperatures, and if you stay active and your digits are protected, you can usually fight off hypothermia, especially in a group. I do think the first five were left to die in the cold, though, but only after being tied up.

I'm a professor at a college of criminal justice, so I tend to think in terms of crime scenes, but I think the event started as what may have looked to the students like a mugging. As for what they were looking for, that is a separate question.


You say and I quote ; ''I tend to think the Yuris got frostbite when they were hiding in the tree and before the killers returned to finish them off. I've always assumed that the three were trying to get back to the tent, but they also could have broken away from the group when they were being frogmarched down the hill.'' So how many attackers do you think were involved  ?  If it was a lot of attackers then I hardly think any of the Dyatlov Group would have been going anywhere in particular   !  If it was just one or two attackers then they were very brave or stupid, and I would have expected some of the Dyatlov Group to fight back and overpower those attackers.
DB
 

March 28, 2019, 03:42:57 PM
Reply #25
Offline

sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
So the Yuris were hiding up a tree while the attackers started a fire? Or did they climb the tree after the attackers went after the 3 found on the slope?

Because of one of the Yuris' singed hair and both of them having burned clothing, I assume that they may have fallen out of the tree into the fire. I don't believe the burns were a result of them drying clothing on the stove pipe. How would you fit that into the attacker narrative?

You have excellent points about the boot and shortski snow prints and the theory explains why there's clothing scattered between tent and cedar. However, there was also clothing scattered between the cedar and ravine, supposedly so they could find their way back to the cedar???
 I don't know if you think they Ravine 4 escaped early on and tried to build a den or that they were marched into the ravine and the den was a setup? Zolotaryov and Dubinina's injuries apparently could not have been inflicted by another human being - the force was too great. Also in favour of the Rav 4 not being involved in the attack is the fact that they were wearing clothing that belonged to others that had assumedly died before them. What attackers would allow them to do that? Plus Zolotaryov's camera???

My only other question regarding the theory is that the only evidence of binding was on Igor's ankles I believe. In the autopsies, there is no mention of abrasions/bruises around wrists of all three and ankles of Zina and Rustem.

Thanks :)

Have you seen the photos of the Tree ?  Hardly a good hiding place  ! 
DB
 

March 28, 2019, 04:09:27 PM
Reply #26
Offline

Star man

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
If they were attacked by outsiders, why would they have left them with a flashlight, matches a knife and a camera?

Why did some have boots, others have hats, jackets while some had very little clothing?  Why did Rustem have one boot? 

Everything about the scene says that these guys left the tent in a hurry but were not forced into the winter night to die of cold by any attackers.

There is no evidence of any attackers and there is no motive that we can see.

Regards

Star man

 

March 29, 2019, 12:55:42 AM
Reply #27
Offline

GeneralFailure


If they were attacked by outsiders, why would they have left them with a flashlight, matches a knife and a camera?
Well, did they found any flashlight at the cedar/ravine? How did they cut that HUGE three branch near the cedar and all of the small trees for the "den" with only a knife? How did the 2 Yurys died by freezing near the fire? Not in the fetal position? Were any photos on the camera?

Why did some have boots, others have hats, jackets while some had very little clothing?  Why did Rustem have one boot? 
Well, it was very cold in the tent and they decided to cut it from inside and walk down the slope with no shoes/clothes. That's what any normal person would do.

Everything about the scene says that these guys left the tent in a hurry but were not forced into the winter night to die of cold by any attackers.
There is no evidence of any attackers and there is no motive that we can see.
As I said, any normal person would leave a shelter (the tent)  to go outside with no shoes/good clothes ... and any murderer in this world, after killing, is not cleaning the evidences and is writing a letter to the police describing the murder and writing down his name and address and after this he put this letter on his victim.

Regards

Star man
 

March 29, 2019, 09:06:31 AM
Reply #28

Clacon

Guest
If it was murder - it was cold and calculated, and it was done by more than 1 or 2 people. Probably military or those with training....bc the women were untouched - I mean I hate to even go there, but if it were a group of Gulag escapees, that wouldn't have been the case. The motive would have been that the group witnessed something they shouldn't have??

It was covered up well in some areas (i.e. no tracks, save for the boot and partial ski print), however there are just too many open-ended questions...why would attackers let them have the freedom to have the items on them they had? Unless not all of them were marched out of the tent??

The scattered stuff at the cedar could have been due to items falling out of pockets as the clothes were being taken off the bodies, I suppose. However, I am at a loss as to why a jacket, a broken ski (as per radiogram only, so contentious) and a flashlight (as well as other items I think - an ice-ax) were left in between the tent and the cedar. I would have thought these would have been essential to take with? Unless they were running and dropped the items to be faster? However the "orderly footprints" refute this panicked exit of the tent.
 

March 29, 2019, 03:00:24 PM
Reply #29
Offline

sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
If they were attacked by outsiders, why would they have left them with a flashlight, matches a knife and a camera?

Why did some have boots, others have hats, jackets while some had very little clothing?  Why did Rustem have one boot? 

Everything about the scene says that these guys left the tent in a hurry but were not forced into the winter night to die of cold by any attackers.

There is no evidence of any attackers and there is no motive that we can see.

Regards

Star man

Well put. Its important that we remind ourselves of these fundamental points because without much evidence to go by we need to keep our feet firmly on the ground so to speak. Its been put before in the Forum but you are correct to mention this again here. There is nothing that shouts out 'ATTACKERS' driving the Dyatlov Group from the Tent, and no motive. Nothing. Unless any attacker or attackers were something other than human  !  ?  Feet on the ground here.
DB