You want avalanches? Here we go

[Dominov]

Russian prosecutors decided that they will look into the avalanche theory. Ok, lets have a look. Google Earth is a mighty tool to do that in your cozy home.

First we need to locate the approximate area where the group pitched their tent. As a reference I use a picture taken by the first search team.


Ok, thats not bad. It seems that the real location was a litte further down and further north. So far so good.

No let's look for danger zones behind the tent where avalanches could start. These are slopes with inclinations higher than 25%. And yes there is a candidate!



The area in dark magenta is a slope with an average inclination of 26%. There are small areas with inclinations up to 40%. Conclusion: There is a risk that an avalanche could ocurr there. But does it overlap with the location of the tent? Let's see.



Yes. The potential location of the tent slightly overlaps with our avalanche zone. So did we prove that the tent was hit by an avalanche? No. We also see that the north-eastern corner of the Dead Mountain is a windy area (cyan). The patterns in the snow tell us that winds flow over this slope most of the time. This means that snow is carried away most of the time. But avalanches only occur if the amount of snow becomes critical. It's unlikey that a critical mass of snow can be accumulated in this «danger zone». We shouldn't forget neither that it was cold winter when the incident occured. It was cold, windy and it was snowing. Cold snow and wind also lower the likelihood of avalanches. Ok, so we are down to, let's say, a likelihood of 20%. Considering the fact that the tent area most likely didn't overlap with the avalanche danger zone we are down to a likelihood of 10%.

Also considering that the first search team didn't report any signs of an avalanche we are down to 2%. And after having a look at the tent whose entrance was still standing we go down to 1%. The first thing to fall would be the entrance of the tent (on the side of the avalanche zone). Ok, 1%. And yes... is the group's behaviour consistent with an avalanche incident? No. Likelihood down to 0.1% which is still more likely than an alien threat but as likely as the MENK!!!!

Conclusion: Avalanche - Never. The new investigation is a waste of time.

regards

Dominov

[Nigel Evans]

Good images, imo clearly explaining the decision to place the torch and showing that Zina gave up at the foot of the steepest part of the return path.

[Star man]

Good analysis. My skill with google earth is not that good.

So 0.1% is actually more than I was thinking the risk was. So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

[Dominov]

Good analysis. My skill with google earth is not that good.

So 0.1% is actually more than I was thinking the risk was. So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

Look, I learned skiing in the Swiss Mountains at the age of six. Although the Dead Mountain has very few steeper parts we would call it a hill for idiots (beginners). The slope of the Dead Mountain is not a killer, nor is it a place where avalanches typically occur, although I found traces of snow slides on the eastern slope. But well... that depends. Weather, season, sun, quality of snow, inclination, wind, temperature, orientation toward the sun are some of the factors.  Snow slides are possible there, but unlikely, especially on the north-eastern side. But... The sound of an explosion can cause snow slabs/planks/slides. That's how we trigger them here artificially in order to minimize the risk for our appreciated tourists. In the morning in the Alps you often hear explosion bangs. Sounds scary.

Would we hear a snow slide in the extreme winter conditions of 1959? I doubt it. No, we wouldn't.

Regards

Dominov

[sarapuk]

Russian prosecutors decided that they will look into the avalanche theory. Ok, lets have a look. Google Earth is a mighty tool to do that in your cozy home.

First we need to locate the approximate area where the group pitched their tent. As a reference I use a picture taken by the first search team.


Ok, thats not bad. It seems that the real location was a litte further down and further north. So far so good.

No let's look for danger zones behind the tent where avalanches could start. These are slopes with inclinations higher than 25%. And yes there is a candidate!



The area in dark magenta is a slope with an average inclination of 26%. There are small areas with inclinations up to 40%. Conclusion: There is a risk that an avalanche could ocurr there. But does it overlap with the location of the tent? Let's see.



Yes. The potential location of the tent slightly overlaps with our avalanche zone. So did we prove that the tent was hit by an avalanche? No. We also see that the north-eastern corner of the Dead Mountain is a windy area (cyan). The patterns in the snow tell us that winds flow over this slope most of the time. This means that snow is carried away most of the time. But avalanches only occur if the amount of snow becomes critical. It's unlikey that a critical mass of snow can be accumulated in this «danger zone». We shouldn't forget neither that it was cold winter when the incident occured. It was cold, windy and it was snowing. Cold snow and wind also lower the likelihood of avalanches. Ok, so we are down to, let's say, a likelihood of 20%. Considering the fact that the tent area most likely didn't overlap with the avalanche danger zone we are down to a likelihood of 10%.

Also considering that the first search team didn't report any signs of an avalanche we are down to 2%. And after having a look at the tent whose entrance was still standing we go down to 1%. The first thing to fall would be the entrance of the tent (on the side of the avalanche zone). Ok, 1%. And yes... is the group's behaviour consistent with an avalanche incident? No. Likelihood down to 0.1% which is still more likely than an alien threat but as likely as the MENK!!!!

Conclusion: Avalanche - Never. The new investigation is a waste of time.

regards

Dominov

Good Post Dominov. Yes I think we are going to hear a lot of argument about the AVALANCHE THEORY now that it appears that the Authorities have made it one of their most likelyTheories.  However I wouldnt go as far as saying that the new investigation is a waste of time, because we still dont know all the details and there will be the site investigation beginning in March. And any investigation will put the Authorities on the spot.

[sarapuk]

Good analysis. My skill with google earth is not that good.

So 0.1% is actually more than I was thinking the risk was. So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

Look, I learned skiing in the Swiss Mountains at the age of six. Although the Dead Mountain has very few steeper parts we would call it a hill for idiots (beginners). The slope of the Dead Mountain is not a killer, nor is it a place where avalanches typically occur, although I found traces of snow slides on the eastern slope. But well... that depends. Weather, season, sun, quality of snow, inclination, wind, temperature, orientation toward the sun are some of the factors.  Snow slides are possible there, but unlikely, especially on the north-eastern side. But... The sound of an explosion can cause snow slabs/planks/slides. That's how we trigger them here artificially in order to minimize the risk for our appreciated tourists. In the morning in the Alps you often hear explosion bangs. Sounds scary.

Would we hear a snow slide in the extreme winter conditions of 1959? I doubt it. No, we wouldn't.

Regards

Dominov

I believe that the Authorities mentioned Amateur Investigators as one of the reasons for re opening the Case. Yes and if I was them I would call upon some of those Amateur Investigators to assist them. Lets hope this new investigation is not going to be some kind of white wash [ no pun intended ]. I never for one minute thought that an AVALANCHE of any kind caused the EVENT. Your brief analysis just adds more weight to it not being any kind of an AVALANCHE.

[Marchesk]

So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

It doesn't make sense for them to go downhill to escape the threat of an avalanche. Instead, they could run a 100 meters to the side opposite of where they think the avalanche is about to hit. And then they could return to try and dig out the tent, or find out otherwise.

Even with a snow-slide, you have 18 hands and an ice axe to dig out the tent. Makes more sense than trying to survive in the woods a mile below.

[Loose}{Cannon]

People act unexpectedly when the earth starts shaking and the sound of a freight train bears down on them at o'dark 30?

[sarapuk]

So is it possible that there was a snow slide in the area indicated and the Dyatlov group heard it and thought the avalanche was coming their way and therefore fled?

It doesn't make sense for them to go downhill to escape the threat of an avalanche. Instead, they could run a 100 meters to the side opposite of where they think the avalanche is about to hit. And then they could return to try and dig out the tent, or find out otherwise.

Even with a snow-slide, you have 18 hands and an ice axe to dig out the tent. Makes more sense than trying to survive in the woods a mile below.

After the initial shock of any alleged avalanche it wouldnt take them long to recover their composure. There would be no need to walk a mile without adequate protection from the extreme weather conditions.

[Star man]

The one thing that always sticks in mind with this type theory is Semyon’s camera.

I don’t very much he would have taken his camera outside to take a picture of an avalanche coming his way?

[Dominov]

Small addition:

Statement from Maslennikov about the tent before the search team started digging:

"The snow was not much, only drifted by the blizzards in the period of February." This statement is better than every picture.

Dominov

[Dominov]

The one thing that always sticks in mind with this type theory is Semyon’s camera.

I don’t very much he would have taken his camera outside to take a picture of an avalanche coming his way?

I seems that Semyon had his camera always attached to his jacket, see:







So, the camera was there if the jacket was there....

Dominov

[Loose}{Cannon]

After the initial shock of any alleged avalanche it wouldnt take them long to recover their composure. There would be no need to walk a mile without adequate protection from the extreme weather conditions.

Im not saying it actually hit them or the tent.  I do know where there is an avalanche, the danger of another very real. 

[Star man]

Dominov.  Good observation on the camera. So Semyons camera is not a significant piece of evidence!

Regards
Star

[Loose}{Cannon]

Think that's a flashlight.

[Loose}{Cannon]

Something like this.

[Dominov]

@loose Canon

Yes, you are right! That's a flashlight. But the model was this one -> a military flashlight, only for soldiers ;)

https://www.etsy.com/de/listing/255405654/jahrgang-sowjetischen-taschenlampe?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=soviet+flashlight&ref=sr_gallery-1-1

regards

Dominov

[Loose}{Cannon]

Dont look the same to me, but being an veteran, I wouldn't be surprised.   Lots of Surplus stuff

[sarapuk]

Small addition:

Statement from Maslennikov about the tent before the search team started digging:

"The snow was not much, only drifted by the blizzards in the period of February." This statement is better than every picture.

Dominov

Yes you could say that the Avalanche Theory is on dodgy ground [ no pun intended ]. All the signs point to NO AVALANCHE of any kind whatsoever.  Location not suitable for an avalanche. Weather conditions not suitable for an avalanche. Findings of the search parties not conducive for an avalanche.

[Star man]

Something like this.

Ok thanks LC.  I"ll put the camera back on my list of evidence again. 

Regards

Star

[Tim]

 Here me out, The avalanche theory has been totally contaminated by the disregard of the two photos which show clearly the exterior snowscape at the top of the wall is higher the the interior finished floor of the tent at the time the photo was taken. which is a faulty grade. In a rainy senecio the tent would probably flood or at least take on some water.  Here is what I propose happened which has never been offered up before. The one taking the photo who is on a higher elevation yells to the team member who looks up. If it were an emergency there would be no photo as everyone would be pitching in to get the tent ready.  After the tent is set up a few team members went in side to prepare for the evening while the others are secure the tent and are packing the snow on and around the tent.  Mountaineering 101, build a snow wall to protect the tent and its occupants. But by compacting the snow in these conditions is a fatal mistake which causes the surface to freeze. This would be ok but the men are not satisfied with the height of the wall because the winds are really picking up, so they take their skis and pull down as much snow as they can to build a higher wall and then compact that...What they could not know is the new snow they brought down is now free standing on is own. But as soon as the winds reach gale force and now aided by gravity, a section of the wall slams into and onto the hikers and Zina takes a direct hit on her side. Because they are stunned and cannot move lateral to the entrance they cut themselves out which can been seen in the tent cuts. Humans cut horizontal and vertical, these appear to be done from on their sides. Once they are out and now are at deaths door step, the other section of the wall slides onto the tent covering up there gear. They try with their hands and even break a ski pole but they are not at the beach  and the elements are starting to take its tole on their hands. They come to a decision very quickly  to move as fast as they can to the forest and start a fire.  The two Yuri’s sprint ahead to start a fire and the team can only move as fast as they can in gale force winds. But they do reach it quicker than one would expect or they would of died on the slopes.  The theory satisfies why they left without their gear..Lastly Only a gale force wind can uncover raised foot prints and also the time it takes to blow away critical snow and the previous elevation from on and  around the tent.  Note: Even if they were able to retrieve their gear by the time they find what’s what and how do we fix the tent with frozen hands. It was logical to gamble at the forest with a fire and reassess things in the morning.  Their are chunks of measurable snow on the tent with shadows....

[RidgeWatcher]

I spent time in dangerous avalanche country in Alaska for many years. The Inupiat and Athabaskans have at least 32 words for snow and ice and layers of snow and ice. Avalanche theory in Alaska is a science and an art form studied at the Universities. Many SAR and Health practitioners take avalanche courses out in the field. I respect the skills, history and experience of the Dyatlov hikers to choose a proper slope setting for their tent. All winter long, roads are closed temporarily, to blast unstable grades/mountains of snow. I trust the photos and the SAR (search and rescue) members at the time to adequately dispel any theories of avalanche.

It has been some years since I was into this subject but I was fairly interested and talked to many people from around the world. The avalanche theory is out. I always felt that the person who started and adhered to the avalanche theory as being a beginner.

My Swiss friends have a saying "If a cow can't stand up on the snow grade then a person shouldn't be there either". Makes a lot of sense. When you are on a slope with your eyes, your experience with the snow and your intelligence then you know if you belong there or not. I remember traveling with friends and seeing snowmobilers doing runs up a short hill by the roadway and we all thought they were idiots because of the steepness and the snow pack. The next day several were were killed in the same area from a small load but very heavy avalanche.

Thomas Spriggs in his book "Into Nowhere" in the last pages, performs an interesting test with the Dyatlov group and the SAR rescuer photos. Mr. Spriggs flips photos, and them lays them on top of each each other, using a double exposure technique. The tent, poles, skies and other Dyatlov hiker debris. They are exactly the same place and position from the building of the site to the rescue mission.

I have changed my critical thinking regarding the Dyatlol Pass deaths since I have been on this site (many great posts), such as, I now strongly believe the that Dyatlov knew his hikers would be safer above the treeline.

The hikers spent too much time fixing rips and tears in the tent each evening (ad nauseam) to not weigh the consequences of pitching the tent above the treeline, up a mountain versus below in the trees.

I keep seeing that darkened figure coming out behind the trees, what if, the Dyatlov hiker who took that photo just before climbing the pass, was the ONLY hiker to see that person, and wasn't sure what they saw, at least until the photos would be processed back in Yetaterinburg. The photographer was certainly the last in the line and the unknown man could quickly move back behind the trees easily. With 9 hikers on skis there would have been enough noise to drown out the unknown man's quick retreating sounds.

What if they told the group they had seen a non-Mansi or non-Khanty man behind the trees and the group made fun of them by writing about Sasquatch/Yeti in the Evening Otorton. Knowing the Evening Otorten may be reviewed by the University back home they tried to keep the subject light.

Looking at the map, they knew where the Lovza River was and where Mount Otorten was. I don't think Dyatlov was high on the side of the mountain for a better look in the morning, which may not offer a view in the morning because of the weather. If they were hiking purely for time, even though they went further than needed, they still would have stayed lower and further towards the opposite side of the tree line without the unnecessary climb high up. There was never any guarantee that the higher tent site would offer a better morning view of Mt. Otorten and this was probably discussed among the group. Living in Alaska makes you a "worst case scenario" kind of person. I would be "Hey Igor this makes no sense, why go higher, no guarantee for a better morning view". With all due respect.

[sparrow]

Hi RidgeWatcher.

I was wondering if they camped where they did so as to get a jump on their hike the next morning.  I not sure that I have ever seen a map that shows their location in relation to Mt. Otorten.  That was my GUESS.

 

[RidgeWatcher]

Thank you, Sparrow,

Dyatlov Pass is between Mount Kholat Syakhl (1079) and to the northwest 880 mountain. What is also required to analyze the "higher mountain/easier morning start" scenario is present weather versus possible morning weather (no NOAA doppler radar in 1959) and altitude.
 
Was the late afternoon altitude climb worth it? What was the advantage versus traversing Boot Rock area and hiking north over Dyatlov Pass to the tree line. Look at the photos and ask yourself what would you have done? Remember they had a late start after constructing the cache.

Was the late afternoon altitude climb worth it, knowing about the wind and just a little wood for the stove? They had to know it would be a colder and a much windier night by climbing up towards the peak.

I wouldn't have climbed in altitude for an easier morning start, would you?

I really feel the trouble started before they left the tree line above the cache area, the photos showed a calm and cohesive hiking group and tent set-up, but I think that at least one of the hikers had sensed or saw something was amiss and then Dyatlov had interpreted this for a need to gain a higher elevation even with a potentially more dangerous altitude and wind exposure. The tent site was a strategic vantage point.

[RidgeWatcher]

Hello Sparrow,

I remember pinpointing Kholat Syakhl the hard way using early google earth, the resolutions were terrible but in those days you could pinpoint and stand apon any mountain in the Urals (or anywhere) for free. I followed the Dyatlov hikers diaries and calculated distances. Manpupunar was found this way also, a group of the most beautiful rocks you will ever see. Then I bought a Rand-McNally 1962 World Atlas in a thrift store for two dollars. I was stunned to see that it had far more detail and clarity in even the smaller creeks and streams. I remember questioning how this could be and then someone told me that the Rand-McNally was mapped at the hight of the Cold War when there were a lot of U.S. spy planes, mapping and collecting data on Russia and Siberia. The U.S. was spying and wanted to know what was being manufactured in the factories and gulags besides mining and forestry. U.S. pilot Frances Gary Powers was shot down near Sverdlovsk the is how much spying was being performed at the time by the C.I.A. trying to fully map the infrastructure.
I think I have read, maybe here, that the Dyatlov Hikers were supposed to go one more snow canyon to the north and then turn left (west), and bypass Kholat Syakhl completely. If anyone has information on that please let me know. If this is true they would never have had to hike up and over Dyatlov Pass at all.

[sarapuk]

Hello Sparrow,

I remember pinpointing Kholat Syakhl the hard way using early google earth, the resolutions were terrible but in those days you could pinpoint and stand apon any mountain in the Urals (or anywhere) for free. I followed the Dyatlov hikers diaries and calculated distances. Manpupunar was found this way also, a group of the most beautiful rocks you will ever see. Then I bought a Rand-McNally 1962 World Atlas in a thrift store for two dollars. I was stunned to see that it had far more detail and clarity in even the smaller creeks and streams. I remember questioning how this could be and then someone told me that the Rand-McNally was mapped at the hight of the Cold War when there were a lot of U.S. spy planes, mapping and collecting data on Russia and Siberia. The U.S. was spying and wanted to know what was being manufactured in the factories and gulags besides mining and forestry. U.S. pilot Frances Gary Powers was shot down near Sverdlovsk the is how much spying was being performed at the time by the C.I.A. trying to fully map the infrastructure.
I think I have read, maybe here, that the Dyatlov Hikers were supposed to go one more snow canyon to the north and then turn left (west), and bypass Kholat Syakhl completely. If anyone has information on that please let me know. If this is true they would never have had to hike up and over Dyatlov Pass at all.

Hello Ridgewatcher. I enjoy reading your insights. This question of the exact Route that the Dyatlov Group were supposed to take as cropped up before but I dont recall any firm conclusion at all. So there appears to be room to manoeuvre. In fact thats probably what the Dyatlov Group planned anyway. As you must know when going on any type of hike or expedition you have to have a flexible plan to deal with any eventualities that crop up. So it seems very unusual that they would leave the protection of the Tree Zone to go out into an open and exposed Hillside in such weather conditions. Basically diverting from a more protected Route  !  ? 

[RidgeWatcher]

Sarapuk,

Thank you for the answer. I just noticed today that you responded to my question. I enjoy your replies and knowledge and logic just as much. I did not know their plan was maneuverable.

Do you have any determination regarding, if the attackers came from the southeast "cache" side or from the northeast tree line side. I just don't have enough information to decide. They had past Mansi signs, a recent hunter's tracks and an unknown man in the woods. Could the attackers have been from the north tree line? Someone on this site theorized that the dug den my have been pre-built for the Dyatlov ski tourists.I find this plausible.

[sarapuk]

Sarapuk,

Thank you for the answer. I just noticed today that you responded to my question. I enjoy your replies and knowledge and logic just as much. I did not know their plan was maneuverable.

Do you have any determination regarding, if the attackers came from the southeast "cache" side or from the northeast tree line side. I just don't have enough information to decide. They had past Mansi signs, a recent hunter's tracks and an unknown man in the woods. Could the attackers have been from the north tree line? Someone on this site theorized that the dug den my have been pre-built for the Dyatlov ski tourists.I find this plausible.

Well thats a big question. Were they ATTACKED  !  ?  And if so HOW were they attacked  !  ?  If someone or something was following them up the Valley then I guess they may be thinking to get away from the Valley Treeline and pitch their Tent well out in the open.

[bookworms33]

Here me out, The avalanche theory has been totally contaminated by the disregard of the two photos which show clearly the exterior snowscape at the top of the wall is higher the the interior finished floor of the tent at the time the photo was taken. which is a faulty grade. In a rainy senecio the tent would probably flood or at least take on some water.  Here is what I propose happened which has never been offered up before. The one taking the photo who is on a higher elevation yells to the team member who looks up. If it were an emergency there would be no photo as everyone would be pitching in to get the tent ready.  After the tent is set up a few team members went in side to prepare for the evening while the others are secure the tent and are packing the snow on and around the tent.  Mountaineering 101, build a snow wall to protect the tent and its occupants. But by compacting the snow in these conditions is a fatal mistake which causes the surface to freeze. This would be ok but the men are not satisfied with the height of the wall because the winds are really picking up, so they take their skis and pull down as much snow as they can to build a higher wall and then compact that...What they could not know is the new snow they brought down is now free standing on is own. But as soon as the winds reach gale force and now aided by gravity, a section of the wall slams into and onto the hikers and Zina takes a direct hit on her side. Because they are stunned and cannot move lateral to the entrance they cut themselves out which can been seen in the tent cuts. Humans cut horizontal and vertical, these appear to be done from on their sides. Once they are out and now are at deaths door step, the other section of the wall slides onto the tent covering up there gear. They try with their hands and even break a ski pole but they are not at the beach  and the elements are starting to take its tole on their hands. They come to a decision very quickly  to move as fast as they can to the forest and start a fire.  The two Yuri’s sprint ahead to start a fire and the team can only move as fast as they can in gale force winds. But they do reach it quicker than one would expect or they would of died on the slopes.  The theory satisfies why they left without their gear..Lastly Only a gale force wind can uncover raised foot prints and also the time it takes to blow away critical snow and the previous elevation from on and  around the tent.  Note: Even if they were able to retrieve their gear by the time they find what’s what and how do we fix the tent with frozen hands. It was logical to gamble at the forest with a fire and reassess things in the morning.  Their are chunks of measurable snow on the tent with shadows....

I think this is the most likely scenario. Moses Akselrod's theory supports this, except that he uses the word "avalanche". A localized wall collapse seems like it could still do that sort of damage, though. My primary question is: could someone with flail chest injuries (such as those suffered by Dubinina) possibly be capable of hiking a mile down hill afterwards? Teddy might be able to answer this. :)

(I'm new here, but I've been reading this forum for a while now. Hello everyone.) 

[Georgi]

I think this is the most likely scenario. Moses Akselrod's theory supports this, except that he uses the word "avalanche". A localized wall collapse seems like it could still do that sort of damage, though. My primary question is: could someone with flail chest injuries (such as those suffered by Dubinina) possibly be capable of hiking a mile down hill afterwards? Teddy might be able to answer this. :)

(I'm new here, but I've been reading this forum for a while now. Hello everyone.) 

Not likely that Dubina received the injuries at the tent area, she would have had to walk 1,600m in the dark and cold through snow with a puncture to the heart. She also had clothes from one of the men under the tree as well as burns on her clothes from the fire so she would have had to survive for at least a few hours of hard exertion post injury. Whatever the reason is that forced them out, I don't think any of the serious injuries would happened at the tent or those individuals would have succumbed to their injuries on the way to the tree rather than survive for hours after the injury.