Best forum readers!
I thought that it would be a good idea to post something here, after writing the article about the theory involving a katabatic wind. Me, Andreas, Ekaterina and Artem, made an expedition to the pass in Jan/Feb, which is shortly described together with the new theory. You can find it under “The Swedish-Russian Dyatlov Expedition 2019” on this site’s Home page – or in my constantly updated blog. A link to the latter is found along the article mentioned above. Before commenting, I would suggest that you read the theory in full.
I have tried to build the case out of my own experiences from mountainous areas and by experiencing the Dyatlov pass/Auspiya valley during the same time of the year as the Dyatlov group. I have also compared the Dyatlov event to the Swedish accident of Anaris in 1978. The latter which in many ways mimics the circumstances in the Dyatlov pass - affected by a gravity wind (katabatic wind).
I have experienced many positive feedbacks on the theory, but also much criticism. The latter is very welcomed in order to improve the knowledge of the event. So please, when objecting, try also to explain why you object to details or any larger unfolding event during the evening/night of February 1st in 1959 - involving a possible katabatic wind. This, so that we can build a solid case. To my surprise most of the people objecting to the theory are less favourable of the idea of leaving the tent without giving a thought of staying – this in case of a falling/gravity wind. It is important to solve the “leaving the tent” situation, because it is this specific act that more or less leads to the subsequent events. So let me first make one thing clear. I am not talking about any wind or any storm. The density and gravitational force of a katabatic wind is brutal. A storm would mostly give you the option to dress and to stay/leave the tent under rather controlled forms. Furthermore, never forget the coexisting low temperature, both during the night and the cooling effect of a gravity wind rolling down the gradient. So again, we are not talking about severe winds or a storm of wind speeds up to around 25 m/s, but about possible wind speeds above that. Even though we should be open for wind speeds during a katabatic event of around 20-25 m/s. Remember that the katabatic wind recorded during the Anaris event was “only” around 20 m/s. The cooling effect was then around minus 50 degrees Celsius (-58 degrees Fahrenheit).
Many would argue that the Dyatlov group could have stayed in the tent. But I would argue that crawling back under the snow covered tent, if possible at all due to the conditions involving a gravity wind, wouldn’t have helped them - which they wisely and obviously realized. Yes, the tent would have been better secured with the group inside, but the cooling effect under a gravity wind would eventually have killed them. Furthermore the torn tent was already made unsuitable for this option. In fact - it was exactly this that killed the Anaris group, where the only person escaping the shelter was the only survivor. He was in constant movement and ventured elsewhere, while the rest froze to death.
So, let us start there – and let the ideas, concerns or additional viewpoints flow.
Dear Richard Holmgren!
Next time back I have read in newspaper “Aftonbladet” article of Katarina Norrgrann ”Därför dog de nio på berget” on February, 08th. Certainly no oneself article, and its copy on the Internet. After that I had an insuperable desire contact to you and discuss some features of your expedition. I have directed e-mail to Katarina with the request to discuss about you travel and to contact you for this purpose. While I have get not answer and good luck smiled to me, that you have written the thoughts on this forum has.
First I should tell that you the big heroes that have perform such travel and have courageously overcome all difficulties. In addition it is necessary I tell to you, that from many other things have passed route part in difference strictly on route Dyatlov group. That not do many modern groups. They go on easier way – snowmobile track on old Mansi`s road. I know that I speak about it because we (with my friend Alexander Alekseenkov) have already made 4 similar winter travel exclusively with the research purposes on these subjects.
Now we plan the fifth travel, therefore we have only small time for preliminary discussion. It is possible only till March, 01st 2019. When we will come back, I will inform on it at this forum.
At first I would like tell some words under your theory.
1.I almost completely agree with your estimations about trajectory of studying of this theory, in particular, that the basic dominant of this failure is the reason of escape from tent, however do not consider to you, that the wind without additional physical factors could be the reason only. They perfectly understood (if they were in full human intellect) that the similar way leave therefrom is equivalent as jump out of the plane if it flies at the big height, however is the fact that they so have made it. From here it is possible draw conclusion that they did not make decisions agree to logic and to full human intellect. Means there was external influence on their human intellect.
2.I have very big doubts that in this case we have Katabatic wind because it is characteristic for the stream of very cold air
falling with plateau downwards and filling all space below. Here we have picture slightly another. The ridge of the Ural mountains is divider of two climatic zones
: warmer which is formed under the influence of warm current Gulf Stream and (on the opposite side) colder - which is available beyond Ural Mountains and it is formed under the influence of the Arctic cold which comes from space behind islands Novaya Zemlya (New Lands). This big difference of temperatures also forms strong wind which pass through the Ural ridge. In addition the increase in speed of wind is reached at the expense of the effect reflected in the Bernoulli law, which is caused compression ground borderline stream by Ural ridge. Thus the valleys located in the West in addition develop air stream in direction from the West to East. Dyatlov`s group Tent was in 1 to 2 km from watershed line of the Main Ural ridge, therefore it was under the influence of warmer air from the West, than all lowland to the East away from mountains Ural Mountains. It means that warmer air covered East zone of cold area and not could go down far downwards because it had smaller density, than the bottom colder air. It turns out so that below was cold, but almost windless weather, and above, moderate or rather strong wind, but much warmer.
3.You almost truly and precisely estimate influence of weather conditions, only (as I think) overestimate severity of these conditions during the beginning and continuation of all actions little. By my estimations (method of interpolation of weather on the basis of 7 surrounding meteorological stations: Troitsty-Pechorsk; Syktyvkar; Niaksimvol; Burmatovo; Ivdel and Chardyn) I have ascertain that weather should be (presumably) such: tо at tent place ~-12 …-18C; speed of wind at level of top N-E spur from mountain “1096” (now - Holatchahl) ~ 15. 18 m/s; tо at cedar ~-22 …-25C speed of wind in this area - insignificant. During expedition in January 2015 we have found out that at a wind 15 … 16 m/s at tent place, on half of way to cedar, the wind abates practically to the indiscernible. It is possible to look at some video fragments under the reference:https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/16JAL1OWeJ6X7Prm8F8l1FbwyWcsXQFjQ?usp=sharing
On these video you can see all way from place of tent to cedar and wind changes wind velocity.
This video by which I did in way from tent place to cedar. Unfortunately there all comments in Russian but if it is necessary it can be seen by means of the translator.
The initial information I took on a site of the World Meteorological organisation ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/gsod/
about those points where there was data for 4 adjacent days since the beginning of events
I regret that I do not have time now to alter the scheme in English.
If there is a necessity, I can give the reference to the big article about weather to this place and its separate special cases. But it is in Russian too.
It is possible use computer translation program.
I can offer only that, I will answer if it probably in more details all questions, but only after returning from our expedition.
I can suggest look at some supervision of wind In January, 2015 under this reference:
4.Unfortunately I have not found the description of case Anaris group in the Internet, therefore I cannot compare it to conditions in which there was Dyatlov group. If you send me the reference to this description in English, German, French or Spanish (at me the translator is adjusted only on these languages) that I will be very grateful to you.
5.I think that it is not necessary consider case returning of participants Dyatlov group to tent from a cedar because very many details say that it was generated then (1959) belief of participants of search because they could not explain their arrangement in space and in time on course of events. It is a separate part of discussion which should be conducted only after we can understand conditions of weather and the reason escape from tents. As last resort it can be received in Swedish, but I should search long time for adequate translation possibility. If built in Google-translator cannot make it.
6.I do not want tell that bad, but after viewing your photos arrangement of place you tent, at me the impression is made that your tent stood minimum in 200 … 300 metres from that place which has been calculated with the big accuracy, several Russian researchers. I want notice that you were the third group which during last current 60 years has organised winter parking place in night in this local area.
Dyatlov group in 1959 was the first.
The second is team by Alex Markov's group from Ekaterinburg (university UPI) in 1999, in time expeditions to honour of the 30 anniversary of events Dyatlov group.
The third group was yours.
It is everything, not including ours (with Alexander Alekseenkov) four series for 5 … 6 spending the night in area about rocks. This place has been chosen by us specially, proceeding their my hypothesis of events. But it should be discussed later.
I have forgotten tell that in the same place there was group of professional rescuers in 2013 which has arrived there by the helicopter and provided departure there for one day of correspondents of the newspaper «Komsomolskya Pravda» which much write about " Dyatlov pass " on it theme. We have come there 4 days prior to them, and did not foreknow that they there will be.
On your photos there are no exact reference points, therefore for understanding how much I am right in the estimations, I would like to ask you give me co-ordinates your tent on slope that it would be possible compare to available calculations and comparisons on photo 1959 and our, as modern. If it is the confidential information for public means that it is not obligatory. Or this information can be send to my e-mail or in the personal messag in that forum. I will not publish in open sources. It is for you only
7.I very much liked your photos on their quality and art characteristics. You could inform me what cameras and objectives you used, what I could compare to our modest possibilities?
8.I Ask my admiration and respect to Andreas because I understand, what big case you have made in these researches.
Vladimir A. Borzenkov.
PhD (aeronautics and space engineering)