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Weather analysis from the night of the Dyatlov Pass incident

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Teddy:
I am publishing the results from the new investigation in Materials Modern → Publications / Media
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The latest is the weather analysis from the night of the Dyatlov Pass incident.

The first question that comes to mind when you look at the photos and read the diaries is if it was the weather that killed the Dyatlov group. After all, this is the most common reason for incidents in the mountain, especially multiple deaths with no survivors. In this part of the Urals there are no direct weather measurements, the nearest meteorological station Burmantovo being 47 miles away. What can modern methods do about the precise temperature, wind speed, wind chill index and snow cover present on that dreadful night 61 years ago? The Prosecutor's office investigation in 2019 made it its goal to find out as much as possible. Independent experts and participants in the search operation in 1959 disagree with their conclusions. Read the weather analysis →

Marchesk:

--- Quote from: Teddy on September 07, 2020, 03:57:47 AM ---The first question that comes to mind when you look at the photos and read the diaries is if it was the weather that killed the Dyatlov group. After all, this is the most common reason for incidents in the mountain, especially multiple deaths with no survivors.
--- End quote ---

Only if the weather motivated them to leave the tent. And from the weather analysis, it does not look like the estimated wind speed would have been enough for a Karmen vortex or Katabatic wind. Therefore, the hikers probably were not spooked out of the tent by a low frequency sound, nor did they abandon it in fear of it blowing away.

One doesn't abandon the only good shelter they have with winter clothing and warm bodies for an exposed hike down unfamiliar terrain in the dark to try and shelter in the trees and build a half-assed fire just because the wind picked up and the temperature dropped outside the tent.

We can't know for sure how accurate the analysis is, just like we can't be sure a snow slab didn't form above the tent. But it doesn't seem very likely. I don't know whether anyone's tried to rank all the theories by probability. I pulled a 5% out of the air for snow slab, and the wind-related theories sound about as (un)likely.

Investigator:
A couple days ago I posted my complete conclusion in the "why the group split" thread.  As I said there, it's not one incident, but rather a sequence of decisions/incidents/possible accidents, etc.  Each one has more than one reasonable explanation and of course unlikely possibilities can't be entirely dismissed.  However, what I would like to see is a detailed recreation, meaning a bunch of fit college students hike up that mountain during the winter, wearing the same clothing, doing the same things, and pitching the same kind of tent (two WW II tents sewn together and coming apart at those seams during the night, as we read about in the diaries), with no heat and no sleeping bags.  I think the tent would rip apart from the wind, then someone would try to fix it and perhaps accidentally make it worse.  Or they might have felt trapped so they had to cut their way out or else freeze to death during the night (if ice sheets formed on the outsides).  Or Igor thought it would get ripped open by the strong wind and wanted to teach the group a lesson, and also earn the Level 3 certification.  The boots and heavy coats may have frozen but then why not take the blankets?  Probably because he told them that the blankets would be a hindrance and possible blow away, and that a robust fire (which they did create) would keep them alive during the night.

Nigel Evans:

--- Quote from: Investigator on September 13, 2020, 12:49:31 PM ---A couple days ago I posted my complete conclusion in the "why the group split" thread.  As I said there, it's not one incident, but rather a sequence of decisions/incidents/possible accidents, etc.  Each one has more than one reasonable explanation and of course unlikely possibilities can't be entirely dismissed.  However, what I would like to see is a detailed recreation, meaning a bunch of fit college students hike up that mountain during the winter, wearing the same clothing, doing the same things, and pitching the same kind of tent (two WW II tents sewn together and coming apart at those seams during the night, as we read about in the diaries), with no heat and no sleeping bags.  I think the tent would rip apart from the wind, then someone would try to fix it and perhaps accidentally make it worse.  Or they might have felt trapped so they had to cut their way out or else freeze to death during the night (if ice sheets formed on the outsides).  Or Igor thought it would get ripped open by the strong wind and wanted to teach the group a lesson, and also earn the Level 3 certification.  The boots and heavy coats may have frozen but then why not take the blankets?  Probably because he told them that the blankets would be a hindrance and possible blow away, and that a robust fire (which they did create) would keep them alive during the night.

--- End quote ---
They left behind lots of clothing and footwear that wasn't frozen.

Investigator:

--- Quote from: Nigel Evans on September 14, 2020, 03:38:20 AM ---They left behind lots of clothing and footwear that wasn't frozen.

--- End quote ---

I don't think they had more than one pair of heavy boots each nor more than one heavy coat each, except perhaps for the fur jacket that I think they were using to put in the hole in the tent when the stove wasn't in use, as was the case that night.  This seems to be what puzzles most people, but I think those were frozen, and apparently they kept clothing against the walls to use as a kind of insulation.  We won't know if most of the items froze up until a good recreation is done, but they were wearing multiple pants, shirts/sweaters, and socks.  You can only put on so many of those before it becomes difficult to move, and they probably realized those would get sweated up/wet and they'd have to change into other clothes before packing the tent up and getting to a better location the next day.  Outside the tent, I believe a shirt was wrapped around one or two pair of socks, apparently beloging to Igor.  That might have gotten blown out of the tent or he may have been trying to carry it down and dropped it and then it blew off (we'd need to get somebody up there same time of year and same weather conditions to see if you had something like that under your arm and started walking, if it would like fall out and blow away).  Apparently Russian soldiers could survive by digging out a "den," lining it with branches, and huddling together, but the Dyatlov group split and those who went back to the den did not get the chance to put that plan into effect (though perhaps they waited too long hoping the fire would save them before recognizing that it would not).

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