Theories Discussion > Murdered
A problem with homicide theories
Charles:
nothing here
RMK:
--- Quote from: Charles on May 06, 2022, 12:38:06 PM ---
I found this quite interesting article in the Lancet : "Global, regional, and national burden of bone fractures in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019." based on the recording of 178 million bone fractures in 2019.
Source : https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2666-7568%2821%2900172-0
Skull, sternum and ribs fractures only represent 6,57% of the 178 M fractures, but at Dyatlov's Pass they represent 90% of the fractures.
Arm, hand, leg and foot fractures represent 60,51% of the 178 M fractures, but at Dyatlov's Pass they represent 0% of the fractures.
Unfortunately, the study mixes "clavicle, scapula, or humerus" fractures in a same category. Zolotaryov had a very rare scapula fracture and none of the 18 humerus was broken. In the USA, scapula fracture represent approximately 0.4-1% of all fractures (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK537312/) and humerus fracture 8% of all fractures (https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/825488-overview). If we could have the details of the "clavicle, scapula, or humerus" category, it would even increase the contradiction, with something close to :
Skull, scapula, sternum and ribs fractures represent 6,97-7,57 % of all fractures, but at Dyatlov's Pass they represent 100% of the fractures.
Arm (humerus included), hand, leg and foot fractures represent 68,51% of all fractures, but at Dyatlov's Pass they represent 0% of the fractures.
Approximatively, we expect 7% and get 100%, we expect 70% and get 0%...
I have no expertise in statistics but somebody should seriously analyze the Dyatlov's Pass event in terms of statistics. The distribution of bones fractures is not at random and even it defies the general statistics of bone fractures based on a 178 million cases study. Working on the broken bones has serious advantages as bone fracture is a precise fact and not an interpretation, as any bone fracture is always related to an accidental or catastrophic event of whatever type, as it is related to the hikers' death and to a force having caused death and as there is a number of 29 fractured bones for 9 individuals.
In my opinion, the concentration of the 29 bone fractures in the blue circle also containing brain, heart and lungs can only mean "aiming at vital organs in the purpose to kill".
And if we consider other types of injury : cut, scratch, bruise, it becomes even more meaningful. That is to say all other parts of the body were exposed to injuries : but not a single of these injuries at not vital organs was caused with enough strength to break the smallest phalanx. We should consider the event, the destruction and the destructed as a whole. And even extend the destructed to objects : skis, stove, poles, cameras, eyeglasses, pens, biscuits, matches, glass bottles... any object that could be broken into two pieces, how many breakable objects did they have and how many were broken ? And what is the pattern of destruction ? Are we talking of a random catastrophic event that hit their camp and that avoided to break any match, any eyeglass, any pencil, any bottle, any toe, any finger, any foot, any hand, any leg or any arm but reached and broke 29 human bones just centimeter close to the vital organs ?
--- End quote ---
Dear Charles:
I should start off by saying that I do not accept the specific homicide theory that you have explicated in other threads on these forums. However, your post, right here, is the single most persuasive argument for homicide being the cause of the Dyatlov Pass Incident that I have ever encountered! You reference a large-scale epidemiological study of the prevalence and distribution of "all-cause" bone fractures from all over the world, and argue convincingly that the distribution of fractures across the Dyatlovites' bodies' differs appreciably from what is "typical" per the Global Burden of Disease Study. It's unfortunate that the study you cite concerns (as aforementioned) "all-cause" morbidity of bone fractures, and does not present statistics stratified by cause-of-injury (e.g., misadventure/accident versus assault versus self-inflicted), but I think it is safe to assume that the vast majority of fractures occur due to misadventure or accident, and not due to human malice. That is, we can treat the bodily distribution of fractures reported in the GBDS as being "approximately" typical of accidental fractures...and it is indeed interesting to consider that the Dyatlovites disproportionately sustained fractures in the head, neck, and torso.
Good job, Charles!
(P.S. Sorry, everyone, for bumping a thread that's five months' stale...but I am its OP, after all grin1 .)
Charles:
nothing here
Ziljoe:
--- Quote from: Charles on November 16, 2022, 03:09:53 AM ---Thank you dear RMK,
I updated my math and found:
We expect 17% in the blue circle and get 100%, we expect 80% elsewhere and get 0%.
Charles, your maths are incorrect.
The 3% left correspond to the vertebras of which I don't have the details: some are inside the blue circle and others are outside. I also added a fracture of the skull as I lately discovered that Dr Vozrozhdenny described a wound "penetrating into" the mastoid process. The total of fractures being 30:
But there is "a problem with accident theories" which is:
Deputy Federal Prosecutor for Investigations Urakov arrived and immediately asked us to bring him the case. He told us to write the closing statement. He went to the Oblast committee and took Klinov and Ivanov with him. When Ivanov came back he told me that an order was to close the case. [...] I received an express order from Urakov to tell parents it was an accident [...] he himself must have received orders from the Procurator General who, in his turn, executed orders from his superiors. And it looks like so: all of a sudden, in the midst of investigation, there comes Urakov and closes down all work. (Evgeniy Okishev's 2014 intervew) https://dyatlovpass.com/evgeniy-okishev-2014
The same problem you can find here:
"Considering the absence of external injuries to the bodies or signs of a fight, the presence of all the valuables of the group, and also taking into account the conclusion of the medical examinations for the causes of the deaths of the hikers, it is concluded that the cause of their demise was overwhelming force, which the hikers were not able to overcome." (L.N. Ivanov's resolution to close the case of May 28, 1959)
The "accident theorie" was not the conclusion of an investigation but the result of a political decision which was taken in Sverdlovsk Oblast committee or in Moscow and imposed as an "express order" to the investigators... And how to deal with "signs of fight"? Easy: just deny the existence of the more than 80 "external injuries" described in the autopsy reports. The "accident theories" have a problem, and a bigger one than the "homicide theories".
--- Quote from: RMK on November 15, 2022, 04:05:00 PM ---It's unfortunate that the study you cite concerns (as aforementioned) "all-cause" morbidity of bone fractures, and does not present statistics stratified by cause-of-injury (e.g., misadventure/accident versus assault versus self-inflicted), but I think it is safe to assume that the vast majority of fractures occur due to misadventure or accident, and not due to human malice.
--- End quote ---
It is not so unfortunate because fracture always imply some catastrophic event. Maybe there are cases of slow fractures, occurring in periods counted in hours, days or weeks, and not painful, but they should be very rare. Fracture means instantaneous event, catastrophic and violent (force excessing the bone resistance). That is to say, all fractures are like equalized in their catastrophic circumstance. And this "equalization" allow us to compare the 9 hikers' fractures with the 178 million sample.
PS: I have checked about multiple ribs fractures or flail chest in medical studies and there are records of such fractures "caused by assault". These case are rare in samples that are open to all cases admitted into hospital, but in the gulag, the cases were so frequent they had a Russian nickname: "razbit faneru" - "to crack the plywood".
--- End quote ---
Charles, your maths are incorrect.
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