Theories Discussion > General Discussion

DPI/slab avalanche made it into Nature

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cz:
I was somewhat surprised to come across this one in Nature (the journal):

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#ref-CR1

Gaume & Puzrin study the plausibility of  a slab avalanche at the tent location. The upshot is that it requires a rather special combination of circumstances, but if they are  met, it is quite possible.

The authors do explicitly not promote any theory to explain the DPI but focus on this one aspect. Might be worthwhile to have a look for those interested in this route.

Nicknonora:
It's not like people didn't know that a small slide wasn't one possibility.

But my gut is that it doesn't really add up.

cz:
Sure. It's one of the oldest theories and the Russian officials' favorite. Didn't see anybody putting real physical modeling into it so far, so I think that is new.

Anyway, I agree it's not very convincing to explain the whole thing and they don't claim that.

Manti:
While a slab avalanche (actually this is the most common type of avalanche) at the tent location is certainly a possibility:

* weather in the preceding days was reported to be unseasonably warm, "only" around -10C at noon
* then there could have been sudden cooling, strong winds, and heavy snowfall. sudden weather changes often help create the right conditions
* winds especially from NW put a "load" on the Eastern slope meaning snow is deposited there and this puts stress on lower layers of snow
* we don't precisely know where the tent was but it was on a slope. was it a 10° or a 30° slope? if closer to 30 again this can create avalanche conditions
* they created a "gap" in the snowpack when setting up the tent, weakening support for the snow aboveSo just purely looking at the location, an avalanche is not out of the question. But finding the tent the right way up, all the skis beneath perfectly lined up, their belongings in some sort of order inside, at least the layers being in the correct order (skis, backpacks, coats, blankets), doesn't this all but rule out that an avalanche actually occurred?

Could have there been an avalanche elsewhere nearby? Sure but that doesn't explain the DPI

Investigator:
It's so disappointing that the majority of people can't simply study the evidence in a case like this, where there is abundant evidence.  Sure, some questions can never be answered, such as whether digging the "den" was part of the original plan or was decided at a later time, and whether it caused conflict among the nine, but why would one speculate about a natural phenomenon that has never been observed in that location when in fact we know the winds come roaring down that mountain and we know that their two tents sewn together were ripping apart during much better weather conditions and while they were using their stove for heat?  And how can one take seriously any investigators given money/resources to study the incident but don't do a basic reconstruction?

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