Theories Discussion > Avalanche
What about this theory?
WAB:
--- Quote from: Star man on December 14, 2018, 08:42:31 AM ---
--- Quote from: Kopyrda on December 11, 2018, 08:23:49 AM ---
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What are your thoughts?
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I have slept in a tent that collapsed due to snow buildup. The sides sag in well before it collapses. Also you are more likely to be smothered than injured. And you would have to be tied up or paralized to be smothered I suspect. I don’t think it’s particularly credible that this is what happened to them.
--- End quote ---
Signs which arise at a full and big blockage of tent you have resulted correctly.
--- Quote from: Star man on December 14, 2018, 08:42:31 AM ---Even if it had there is no reason to leave camp site.
--- End quote ---
It too the correct remark. It would be more correct and easier to dump snow and to remain in tent.
WAB:
--- Quote from: Star man on December 14, 2018, 08:52:02 AM ---In terms of the avalanche theory one possibility is that large lumps of ice or snow were dislodged further up the hill and one or more hit the tent with potential to cause some injury. The group may have then panicked and left the tent thinking there was an avalanche on the way.
--- End quote ---
You are mistaken in an estimation of possibility of an avalanche. On conditions on district there even the small motion of snow in general is impossible.
The assumption of an avalanche and the same phenomena is full fiction
On a photo the slope profile is well visible. A place where there was a tent it is designated by a tag. A bias corner on this place of 12,5 degrees. It is measured by means of the level tool.
On video it is shown as group should make level a platform under a tent bottom.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kkny3ix7wy3gZcQWJcnJ61HgFnYz_-VK/view?usp=sharing
On the basis of it is possible to draw conclusions on possibility of occurrence of an avalanche or any motion of snow.
--- Quote from: Star man on December 14, 2018, 08:52:02 AM ---I think that given the temperature and lack of clothes it would only be about 30 minutes to an hour before their bodies would be so cold as to not be able to recover even if they had managed to get their clothes back.
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I do not think that at clothes available for them and conditions of the nature they could live so long. I estimate time of possible active actions approximately in 2 … 3 or 4 hours, and further they could not remain any more to live on a cold without assistance and powerful sources of heat.
Even from the beginning of events till the moment of full dying (clinical death) I would estimate time in 6 … 8 hours.
WAB:
--- Quote from: Kopyrda on December 14, 2018, 09:02:08 AM ---
--- Quote from: Star man on December 14, 2018, 08:52:02 AM ---The group may have then panicked and left the tent thinking there was an avalanche on the way.
--- End quote ---
That's what I'd like to believe... but evidence says that they left the tent in orderly fashion, not in the state of panic.
--- End quote ---
Why you so estimate it?
To escape from tent in those conditions which at them were (frost t <-15 … 20С (+5F...-4F)+ a wind not less than 12 … 15 m/s above, and frost o <-20C … -25С (-4F...-13F) below even without a wind) and at all without taking the necessary clothes and adaptations for a survival, they could only without situation considering. Even in the smallest degree. It is equivalent to that they have jumped out of the plane at the big height.
--- Quote from: Kopyrda on December 14, 2018, 09:02:08 AM ---They weren't running, only moving slowly towards the forest. That's what their footsteps apparently suggested.
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On what a sign you estimate it? It has appeared only as a result of different conversations. On that slope it is impossible to distinguish character of moving on traces because character of traces there is defined by the situation on district. There are no flat and horizontal platforms on which already there is a statistics of characteristic traces. Besides, there was no continuous chain of traces on the big extent. Traces have been located by separate fragments with a wide interval. Under such circumstances it was impossible to define how much slow or fast moving. There was it run or simply usual walking.
Star man:
--- Quote from: WAB on December 15, 2018, 02:25:54 AM ---
--- Quote from: Kopyrda on December 14, 2018, 09:02:08 AM ---
--- Quote from: Star man on December 14, 2018, 08:52:02 AM ---The group may have then panicked and left the tent thinking there was an avalanche on the way.
--- End quote ---
That's what I'd like to believe... but evidence says that they left the tent in orderly fashion, not in the state of panic.
--- End quote ---
Why you so estimate it?
To escape from tent in those conditions which at them were (frost t <-15 … 20С (+5F...-4F)+ a wind not less than 12 … 15 m/s above, and frost o <-20C … -25С (-4F...-13F) below even without a wind) and at all without taking the necessary clothes and adaptations for a survival, they could only without situation considering. Even in the smallest degree. It is equivalent to that they have jumped out of the plane at the big height.
--- Quote from: Kopyrda on December 14, 2018, 09:02:08 AM ---They weren't running, only moving slowly towards the forest. That's what their footsteps apparently suggested.
--- End quote ---
On what a sign you estimate it? It has appeared only as a result of different conversations. On that slope it is impossible to distinguish character of moving on traces because character of traces there is defined by the situation on district. There are no flat and horizontal platforms on which already there is a statistics of characteristic traces. Besides, there was no continuous chain of traces on the big extent. Traces have been located by separate fragments with a wide interval. Under such circumstances it was impossible to define how much slow or fast moving. There was it run or simply usual walking.
--- End quote ---
I agree that there was no avalanche or movement of snow. I also think that the avalanche theory can't be right.
The only thing that I think might have been a possibility, is that some lumps of snow or ice were dislodged, possibly by the wind and rolled down and hit the tent. But even this seems unlikely. It was just a thought.
I also agree that after leaving the tent they would have realised that there was no avalanche coming and that they would not have left without their essential clothing.
In my mind I can only see two or possibly three possibilities:
1. Something extremely unusual and terrifying caused them to leave the tent and camp site without stopping to collect their essential clothing
2. They were forced out of the tent and down the slope by other people possibly armed
3. They went down the slope of their own accord. Possibly intoxicated, possibly affected by some drug, or it was some stupid prank.
Even option 3 seems very unlikely to me.
WAB:
--- Quote from: Star man on December 15, 2018, 04:21:24 PM ---
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I agree that there was no avalanche or movement of snow. I also think that the avalanche theory can't be right.
The only thing that I think might have been a possibility, is that some lumps of snow or ice were dislodged, possibly by the wind and rolled down and hit the tent. But even this seems unlikely. It was just a thought.
--- End quote ---
Let's argue logically?
Lumps have rolled down, have struck … that follows further? The man on duty left outside, has looked and has told that happens. It is all that could be. However I cannot present whence there snow lumps can undertake? About ice lumps it is possible not to speak at all. Above on a slope there is a same lifting which comes to an end with even more flat site of a place. There eaves because conditions do not give such possibility are not formed at all.
--- Quote from: Star man on December 15, 2018, 04:21:24 PM ---I also agree that after leaving the tent they would have realised that there was no avalanche coming and that they would not have left without their essential clothing.
In my mind I can only see two or possibly three possibilities:
1. Something extremely unusual and terrifying caused them to leave the tent and camp site without stopping to collect their essential clothing
--- End quote ---
This condition should be either real, or introduced in their consciousness so that they could not distinguish it from a reality. Are you agree with it?
--- Quote from: Star man on December 15, 2018, 04:21:24 PM ---2. They were forced out of the tent and down the slope by other people possibly armed
--- End quote ---
For this purpose these people should have 3 real conditions:
1.The Reason what so to arrive.
2.Unconditional possibility to get on this place
3.Unconditional possibility to find tent in those conditions that then were available
I do not know, how others, but I cannot find such possibilities, in detail having studied districts and logistics.
--- Quote from: Star man on December 15, 2018, 04:21:24 PM ---3. They went down the slope of their own accord. Possibly intoxicated, possibly affected by some drug, or it was some stupid prank.
--- End quote ---
Let's look at the facts?
Examination has established that alcohol at them it is not revealed. At anybody from them it is not revealed.
Similarly it is not revealed drugs. Especially if to consider that it to receive drugs at that time it was almost impossible.
The jokes reminding what “all group to jump off from a skyscraper roof” grin1 at that time too did not practise. Time was such that there were few means and possibilities to entertainments, and many different prospects in a science and life. Especially it concerned students of such universities, as UrPolInst.
To make such "jokes" without the necessary clothes too is not logical. It more reminds suicide, instead of jokes.
--- Quote from: Star man on December 15, 2018, 04:21:24 PM ---Even option 3 seems very unlikely to me.
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Its probability as is small, as though all molecules of water in glass simultaneously would start to move upwards and water in glass has jumped up. grin1
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