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Author Topic: Exiting the tent  (Read 4932 times)

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March 23, 2021, 01:17:14 PM
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trekker

Guest
The tent had 5 long vertical cuts and many short horizontal cuts or tears. 5 vertical cuts were large enough to exit the tent. Cuts were quite evenly distributed to one side.

I’m figuring following possibilities:
-they were forced to make all those cuts. It rendered tent almost useless and in that environment drastically lowered chances of survival

-cuts were made orderly fashion. They didn’t try to sneak out from human threat. Sneaking out would have been obvious with one cut to back of the tent. They didn’t try to escape in panic and hurry. In that case there would have been cuts and tearing all over the tent, both sides and back of the tent.

-Their freedom of movement was propably blocked inside the tent, so they had to cut openings where they slept.

Possible cause of cutting and exiting might be collapsed snow or small slab avalanche above the tent.

« Last Edit: March 23, 2021, 02:07:14 PM by trekker »

March 23, 2021, 01:34:07 PM
Reply #1
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KFinn


Those are very logical and reasonable conclusions based on the evidence at hand. 
-Ren

March 23, 2021, 01:48:42 PM
Reply #2

trekker

Guest
I was surprized how close their storage (labaz) was from the tent. Almost as close as the cedar tree. Their best chances for survival was the storage, after the collapse. It makes perfect sense to descent quickly downhill to storage.

In the storage were nineteen items of food with a total weight of 55 kg. Also found were some medical supplies and Dyatlov’s warm outer boots, plus one pair of spare ski boots, a mandolin, a set of batteries and a lamp, and a mounting set.

Maybe Dyatlov decided to send two uninjured members (two Yuris) to storage to make fire beforehand for the rest of the group. Rest of the group left behind to dig out warm clothes and supplies from collapsed tent.

At the start two Yuris disoriented about 90 degrees to left and descended to cedar. They had same kind of disorienting to left earlier at the same day and got too high up Kholat Syakhl - magnetic anomaly or poor compass and bad visibility? It is very easy to get disoriented in the dark when you can travel rather quickly downhill.

At last two Yuris noticed they are disoriented and they can’t find storage. They made fire, climbed to cedar to signal rest of the group their whereabouts. Rest of the group descended to Two Yuris and they all perished there. Would they have survived, if they had descended correctly to the storage?

Edit: There were even firewood ready in the storage. Best chances for survival - food, firewood, medical supplies for injuries from collapse and at least two pairs of boots.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2021, 03:09:25 PM by trekker »

March 23, 2021, 02:05:15 PM
Reply #3

tenne

Guest
There were two flashlights found at the scene. one at the tent, and the one further down the slope was still working when found. why would they not pick through the warm clothing at the tent using the flashlight rather than head down the slope, in the freezing cold, not properly dressed and why would they leave a working flashlight and keep going in the dark if that is why they left the tent?

March 23, 2021, 02:25:33 PM
Reply #4

trekker

Guest
why would they not pick through the warm clothing at the tent using the flashlight rather than head down the slope, in the freezing cold, not properly dressed

If the tent really collapsed, it was very good assessment of the situation and leadership from Igor Dyatlov. If we assume that there was 50 cm of snow, that makes around 1000kg. Digging that amount of snow bare hands takes time. Descending to storage, say around 2 km downhill take 15-20 mins. So Dyatlov calculated they had maybe 1 hour before their performance start to drop drastically. He send two Yuris to find path to storage and make fire beforehand. Rest of the group have some 30 mins time to dig supplies and then they quicly descent to storage after two Yuris and there were fire ready. Please remember they had firewood ready at the storage.

why would they leave a working flashlight and keep going in the dark if that is why they left the tent?

To mark the path to storage for the rest of the group. It makes perfect sense, if they decided to follow 30 mins after digging the tent.

March 23, 2021, 03:08:34 PM
Reply #5

tenne

Guest
so the two Yuri's  left the collapsed tent using one flashlight and left it to illuminate the path and then did a meandering, if you look at the map that Teddy made, walk to the cedars, not a direct line BTW in the dark. Then the rest of them left their only flashlight at the tent to walk down to the cedar in the dark, using the the flashlight laying the path and then walked past it down to the cedar in the dark?

Is this what you are thinking?

March 23, 2021, 03:32:27 PM
Reply #6

trekker

Guest
Then the rest of them left their only flashlight at the tent to walk down to the cedar in the dark, using the the flashlight laying the path and then walked past it down to the cedar in the dark?

Obviously they managed to get to the cedar. Didn’t they?

Why they missed the flashlight left marking the path? Maybe they had delay and battery was exhausted. Maybe they noticed two Yuris went wrong direction to almost certain death. What would you do in that situation? Leave two comrades missing and go to the storage or do you wait if they miraculously come back?

Two Yuris managed to make fire, they climbed 5 m to cedar, managed to signal their whereabouts and rest of the group descended to help comrades. Maybe that took considerable time and path marking light’s battery was exhausted already. But it is fact that they managed to get cedar.
 

March 23, 2021, 03:46:12 PM
Reply #7

tenne

Guest
why would they not pick through the warm clothing at the tent using the flashlight rather than head down the slope, in the freezing cold, not properly dressed

If the tent really collapsed, it was very good assessment of the situation and leadership from Igor Dyatlov. If we assume that there was 50 cm of snow, that makes around 1000kg. Digging that amount of snow bare hands takes time. Descending to storage, say around 2 km downhill take 15-20 mins. So Dyatlov calculated they had maybe 1 hour before their performance start to drop drastically. He send two Yuris to find path to storage and make fire beforehand. Rest of the group have some 30 mins time to dig supplies and then they quicly descent to storage after two Yuris and there were fire ready. Please remember they had firewood ready at the storage.

why would they leave a working flashlight and keep going in the dark if that is why they left the tent?

To mark the path to storage for the rest of the group. It makes perfect sense, if they decided to follow 30 mins after digging the tent.

1. why would we assume 50 cm of snow on the tent when it was found "The north part was covered with 15-20 cm of snow. It was concluded from general appearance and density that it was not a result of an avalanche but blown by the wind"

2. As far as we can tell, they didn't dig anything out of the tent so why didn't they all leave together or do you think they took some stuff out of the tent and then left to go down to the storage. if so, why not their warm outer wear, boots etc

3. why would they leave a working flashlight sitting on top of the collapsed tent, on top of 10cm of snow, and walk down without it? It had to be turned on so it wasn't left on for them to have a beacon to use to come back to

March 24, 2021, 05:28:53 AM
Reply #8
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
The tent had 5 long vertical cuts and many short horizontal cuts or tears. 5 vertical cuts were large enough to exit the tent. Cuts were quite evenly distributed to one side.

I’m figuring following possibilities:
-they were forced to make all those cuts. It rendered tent almost useless and in that environment drastically lowered chances of survival

-cuts were made orderly fashion. They didn’t try to sneak out from human threat. Sneaking out would have been obvious with one cut to back of the tent. They didn’t try to escape in panic and hurry. In that case there would have been cuts and tearing all over the tent, both sides and back of the tent.

-Their freedom of movement was propably blocked inside the tent, so they had to cut openings where they slept.

Possible cause of cutting and exiting might be collapsed snow or small slab avalanche above the tent.

The Dyatlov Group left the Tent because they feared something. And by the look of it they were scared to death of staying at the Tent. So it figures that they wanted to get away from the Tent very quickly, so quickly in fact that they didnt even stop to dress properly, thats how scared they were. And yet you say that they didnt try to escape in panic and hurry  !  ?  Think about it.
DB

March 24, 2021, 05:32:02 AM
Reply #9
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sarapuk

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I was surprized how close their storage (labaz) was from the tent. Almost as close as the cedar tree. Their best chances for survival was the storage, after the collapse. It makes perfect sense to descent quickly downhill to storage.

In the storage were nineteen items of food with a total weight of 55 kg. Also found were some medical supplies and Dyatlov’s warm outer boots, plus one pair of spare ski boots, a mandolin, a set of batteries and a lamp, and a mounting set.

Maybe Dyatlov decided to send two uninjured members (two Yuris) to storage to make fire beforehand for the rest of the group. Rest of the group left behind to dig out warm clothes and supplies from collapsed tent.

At the start two Yuris disoriented about 90 degrees to left and descended to cedar. They had same kind of disorienting to left earlier at the same day and got too high up Kholat Syakhl - magnetic anomaly or poor compass and bad visibility? It is very easy to get disoriented in the dark when you can travel rather quickly downhill.

At last two Yuris noticed they are disoriented and they can’t find storage. They made fire, climbed to cedar to signal rest of the group their whereabouts. Rest of the group descended to Two Yuris and they all perished there. Would they have survived, if they had descended correctly to the storage?

Edit: There were even firewood ready in the storage. Best chances for survival - food, firewood, medical supplies for injuries from collapse and at least two pairs of boots.

The Storage wasnt that close. The Dyatlov Group fled the Tent and made downhill towards the Forest and ended up near the Cedar Tree. This is what all the indications poiint to.
DB

March 24, 2021, 05:37:57 AM
Reply #10
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
why would they not pick through the warm clothing at the tent using the flashlight rather than head down the slope, in the freezing cold, not properly dressed

If the tent really collapsed, it was very good assessment of the situation and leadership from Igor Dyatlov. If we assume that there was 50 cm of snow, that makes around 1000kg. Digging that amount of snow bare hands takes time. Descending to storage, say around 2 km downhill take 15-20 mins. So Dyatlov calculated they had maybe 1 hour before their performance start to drop drastically. He send two Yuris to find path to storage and make fire beforehand. Rest of the group have some 30 mins time to dig supplies and then they quicly descent to storage after two Yuris and there were fire ready. Please remember they had firewood ready at the storage.

why would they leave a working flashlight and keep going in the dark if that is why they left the tent?

To mark the path to storage for the rest of the group. It makes perfect sense, if they decided to follow 30 mins after digging the tent.

So you think it was a good assessement of the situation by Igor  !  ?  Was it also a good idea to leave without being properly dressed  ! ? Wouldnt it be more likely that Igor along with the others were in fear for their lives at some point and had no alternative but to leave the Tent very quickly.
DB

March 24, 2021, 05:39:29 AM
Reply #11
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Then the rest of them left their only flashlight at the tent to walk down to the cedar in the dark, using the the flashlight laying the path and then walked past it down to the cedar in the dark?

Obviously they managed to get to the cedar. Didn’t they?

Why they missed the flashlight left marking the path? Maybe they had delay and battery was exhausted. Maybe they noticed two Yuris went wrong direction to almost certain death. What would you do in that situation? Leave two comrades missing and go to the storage or do you wait if they miraculously come back?

Two Yuris managed to make fire, they climbed 5 m to cedar, managed to signal their whereabouts and rest of the group descended to help comrades. Maybe that took considerable time and path marking light’s battery was exhausted already. But it is fact that they managed to get cedar.

More maybe's  ! ? Doesnt really explain anything does it.
DB

March 24, 2021, 09:14:22 AM
Reply #12

trekker

Guest
The Dyatlov Group left the Tent because they feared something.

Fear is not only possible explanation why they exited the tent by that way. 5 evenly distributed neat cuts may be indication of collapsed snow wall or small avalanche. They got blocked so that only way was cut the tent where they slept and crawl out from the cuts.

So it figures that they wanted to get away from the Tent very quickly, so quickly in fact that they didnt even stop to dress properly, thats how scared they were.

If the reason was collapsed snow, it would have take quite long time to dig out the tent without shovels. Best chances of survival was descent to the storage. Distance to the storage was roughly same as to the cedar if you look at this map.

https://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=40.0

March 24, 2021, 12:56:59 PM
Reply #13

trekker

Guest
1. why would we assume 50 cm of snow on the tent when it was found "The north part was covered with 15-20 cm of snow. It was concluded from general appearance and density that it was not a result of an avalanche but blown by the wind"

That statement is unrealiable as you can see from this picture. Snow is not undisturbed wind blown snow. Searchers have done considerable digging before photo was taken and there is still lots of snow. The tent was 1 m high so there is much more snow in the front end. And why there was any snow in the tent if it had eroded other places so that even footprints were raised?



DPI Guru WAB commented in 2018 about digging the tent with ice axes. So it seems that there was more than 15-20 cm snow.

” in this question give Michael Sharavin who has found tent the first. In conversations at time 2009 … 2015 hi has explained that when they together with Boris Slobtsov have found tent. When they have started to dig out tent by ice axe. Ice axe has been in front and driven to forward rope of tent. As they did not know that is inside under snow, they intensively raked snow a beak of ice axe. There they have touched cloth of tent and have torn it. After that, when reconnaissance group assorted equipment about tent, cloth `s pieces were lost. He could not remember when it has occurred and as where them could carry away by wind or who that another took for other purposes.

Cheers,”

https://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=124.0

March 24, 2021, 01:05:13 PM
Reply #14

tenne

Guest
so you are saying with that little bit of snow on the tent, it was impossible to get their warm clothing out? or did they quit digging when they could see the top of the tent?

March 24, 2021, 03:00:23 PM
Reply #15

trekker

Guest
so you are saying with that little bit of snow on the tent, it was impossible to get their warm clothing out?

No, I am not talking about little bit of snow. Calculations in this study show that failed slab was 8.8m wide, 4.95 m long, 0.5m deep and 0.5m accumulated snow. Slab was not 1 m deep all along because it was upward thinning. That is quite lot of snow. Of course this is just calculations and we dont have exact parametres and evidence what really happened, but still this is according to laws of physics.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3
« Last Edit: March 24, 2021, 03:08:24 PM by trekker »

March 24, 2021, 03:29:12 PM
Reply #16

tenne

Guest
so you don't think this photo of the tent is how it was found by the searchers? because it would be easy to get warm clothing out of the tent as it is in the photo and they didn't.


March 24, 2021, 03:39:21 PM
Reply #17
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
The Dyatlov Group left the Tent because they feared something.

Fear is not only possible explanation why they exited the tent by that way. 5 evenly distributed neat cuts may be indication of collapsed snow wall or small avalanche. They got blocked so that only way was cut the tent where they slept and crawl out from the cuts.

So it figures that they wanted to get away from the Tent very quickly, so quickly in fact that they didnt even stop to dress properly, thats how scared they were.

If the reason was collapsed snow, it would have take quite long time to dig out the tent without shovels. Best chances of survival was descent to the storage. Distance to the storage was roughly same as to the cedar if you look at this map.

https://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=40.0

Collapsed snow  ! ? Collapsed from what ! ? It wasnt an area where Avalanches occured.
DB

March 24, 2021, 03:58:52 PM
Reply #18

trekker

Guest
Collapsed snow  ! ? Collapsed from what ! ? It wasnt an area where Avalanches occured.

Collapsed or failed slab. Calculations in this report matching with DPI parameters shows that slab is only 4.95 m x 8.8 m. Not exactly avalanche as most of us imagine, but still enough snow to bury tent and cause injuries.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

March 24, 2021, 04:06:02 PM
Reply #19

tenne

Guest
If it buried the tent, why was the tent visible in the photo? The way the tent looks in the photo, the 9 could have easily gotten their warm gear out

March 24, 2021, 04:09:12 PM
Reply #20

trekker

Guest
If it buried the tent, why was the tent visible in the photo? The way the tent looks in the photo, the 9 could have easily gotten their warm gear out

We can see from disturbed snow that searchers made digging before the photo was taken. There was 26 days before tent was found so eroding winds are factor also.

March 24, 2021, 04:41:56 PM
Reply #21

tenne

Guest
Did they put the skis back up right as well when they found the tent? Because I would assume that an avalanche that buried a tent would also knock over the ski

March 24, 2021, 04:59:03 PM
Reply #22

trekker

Guest
Did they put the skis back up right as well when they found the tent? Because I would assume that an avalanche that buried a tent would also knock over the ski

Good point, I was thinking exactly same. Force from snow slabs is calculated to cause moderate to severe, but not life threatening injuries (fig 5). Properly anchored ski hold upright or breaks. If the force would have been strong enough to break skis, they would be killed almost instantly. We can see that there is one broken ski pole, which is much weaker than ski. It was strong enough to break ski pole and ribs, but not enough to break properly anchored skis.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

March 24, 2021, 05:05:04 PM
Reply #23
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KFinn


Did they put the skis back up right as well when they found the tent? Because I would assume that an avalanche that buried a tent would also knock over the ski

Good point, I was thinking exactly same. Force from snow slabs is calculated to cause moderate to severe, but not life threatening injuries (fig 5). Properly anchore ski stays put or breaks. If the force would have been strong enough to break skis, they would be killed almost instantly. We can se that there is one broken ski pole, which is much weaker. It was strong enough to break ski pole and ribs, but not properly anchored skis.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

The only part where this falls apart for me is the inclusion of the injuries at the tent site.  With the injuries that Zolotaryev and Dubinina had, they would not have been able to walk the mile down to the cedar and on to the ravine.  People *have* survived with extensive injuries but flail chest fractures with punctured organs are extremely difficult even under the best of circumstances.  The extent of their injuries, I just do not think it was possible to them to then walk so far.
-Ren

March 24, 2021, 05:20:21 PM
Reply #24

trekker

Guest
Did they put the skis back up right as well when they found the tent? Because I would assume that an avalanche that buried a tent would also knock over the ski

Good point, I was thinking exactly same. Force from snow slabs is calculated to cause moderate to severe, but not life threatening injuries (fig 5). Properly anchore ski stays put or breaks. If the force would have been strong enough to break skis, they would be killed almost instantly. We can se that there is one broken ski pole, which is much weaker. It was strong enough to break ski pole and ribs, but not properly anchored skis.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

The only part where this falls apart for me is the inclusion of the injuries at the tent site.  With the injuries that Zolotaryev and Dubinina had, they would not have been able to walk the mile down to the cedar and on to the ravine.  People *have* survived with extensive injuries but flail chest fractures with punctured organs are extremely difficult even under the best of circumstances.  The extent of their injuries, I just do not think it was possible to them to then walk so far.

Agreed, it is higly doubtful they got severe thorax injuries and then walked down to forest. I think minor slab avalanche could be the cause to exit the tent. It prevented them to get supplies and warm clothes from the tent. Their best chances to survival was the storage, but they made navigation errror and descended to cedar and eventually died there. Major thorax injuries happened down at the forest.

Climbing to cedar is puzzling me. I explain myself they tried to communicate by means of light because they cut branches from cedar. To me such communication means split group.

March 24, 2021, 05:49:32 PM
Reply #25
Offline

Manti


I like this theory. It explains the broken/cut ski pole found in the tent that I haven't read an explanation for yet.

I think the injuries could have happened at the tent actually. Maybe their broken ribs didn't immediately puncture internal organs, that may have happened later after a bad movement.

I think this might even explain the 8 tracks (and not 9). Maybe one of them - Thibo? - was so injured that he couldn't walk and they carried him down.

My contentions:
  • Isn't it strange that the most injured wore the most clothes? I don't think they would be the ones to survive longest, longer than the Yuris next to the fire.
  • The standing skis that Tenne mentions above... And the fact that the tent didn't move.  Don't you think in a slab avalanche scenario the tent would be moved? Most of the force is lateral.
Here's another version: Could it be that the avalanche only caught Lyuda, Semyon and Thibo? As they are the ones with the severe injuries but also the most clothes, so they might have been outside, smoking, talking, looking at the sky, something like that. And then a slab fails near them... The others would dig them out and decide that they need a heat source to warm them up, and maybe that is the reason to descend? This doesn't explain the cuts in the tent though.

By the way not all are cuts, I have also been considering that some are from the ice axe damage by searchers, some are tears along seams by the wind in the intervening month between the incident and the search... In fact the ones that are certain to be cuts are mostly horizontal, but still that the edges show tear does indicate that they used the hole to exit through.

Also, I don't know if you know this but basically you arrived at the same conclusion as the official Russian investigation last year.

March 24, 2021, 06:19:09 PM
Reply #26

tenne

Guest
Did they put the skis back up right as well when they found the tent? Because I would assume that an avalanche that buried a tent would also knock over the ski

Good point, I was thinking exactly same. Force from snow slabs is calculated to cause moderate to severe, but not life threatening injuries (fig 5). Properly anchored ski hold upright or breaks. If the force would have been strong enough to break skis, they would be killed almost instantly. We can see that there is one broken ski pole, which is much weaker than ski. It was strong enough to break ski pole and ribs, but not enough to break properly anchored skis.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

that makes sense

March 25, 2021, 08:35:39 AM
Reply #27

trekker

Guest
       
    • Isn't it strange that the most injured wore the most clothes? I don't think they would be the ones to survive longest, longer than the Yuris next to the fire.
    Good point, it seems to me as selflesness, will to survive together and keep all comrades alive.

       
    • The standing skis that Tenne mentions above... And the fact that the tent didn't move.  Don't you think in a slab avalanche scenario the tent would be moved? Most of the force is lateral.

    Yes, that needs explanation, propably they didn’t had fixed canvas floor on the tent so it was easy to move. Slab moved only few metres and velocity was low, 2 m/s. Nearest part of the snow just dropped down 0.5 metres by  gravity (and snow mass anchored tent). Of course there was lateral movement over the tent otherwise they all had buried.

    [/list]Here's another version: Could it be that the avalanche only caught Lyuda, Semyon and Thibo? As they are the ones with the severe injuries but also the most clothes, so they might have been outside, smoking, talking, looking at the sky, something like that. And then a slab fails near them... The others would dig them out and decide that they need a heat source to warm them up, and maybe that is the reason to descend? This doesn't explain the cuts in the tent though.

    Good point. Another explanation could be the sleeping order. If some of them slept head toward uphill and others toward downhill, so thorax and head injuries occured to persons head toward downhill. There is short movies about the simulation in the end of this article.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

    Short movie of the simulation:




    « Last Edit: March 25, 2021, 08:46:19 AM by trekker »

    March 25, 2021, 08:55:12 AM
    Reply #28
    Offline

    KFinn


         
      • Isn't it strange that the most injured wore the most clothes? I don't think they would be the ones to survive longest, longer than the Yuris next to the fire.
      Good point, it seems to me as selflesness, will to survive together and keep all comrades alive.

         
      • The standing skis that Tenne mentions above... And the fact that the tent didn't move.  Don't you think in a slab avalanche scenario the tent would be moved? Most of the force is lateral.

      Yes, that needs explanation, propably they didn’t had fixed canvas floor on the tent so it was easy to move. Slab moved only few metres and velocity was low, 2 m/s. Nearest part of the snow just dropped down 0.5 metres by  gravity (and snow mass anchored tent). Of course there was lateral movement over the tent otherwise they all had buried.

      [/list]Here's another version: Could it be that the avalanche only caught Lyuda, Semyon and Thibo? As they are the ones with the severe injuries but also the most clothes, so they might have been outside, smoking, talking, looking at the sky, something like that. And then a slab fails near them... The others would dig them out and decide that they need a heat source to warm them up, and maybe that is the reason to descend? This doesn't explain the cuts in the tent though.

      Good point. Another explanation could be the sleeping order. If some of them slept head toward uphill and others toward downhill, so thorax and head injuries occured to persons head toward downhill. There is short movies about the simulation in the end of this article.

      https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

      Short movie of the simulation:



      Going by the pictures, I personally don't believe there was an attached floor to the tent.  I am pretty certain it was just a canvas tarp, and might be listed in the inventories.  It would make more sense as a separate piece, as that would allow the weight of the tent to be broken up some for carrying. 
      -Ren

      March 25, 2021, 09:44:38 AM
      Reply #29
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      sarapuk

      Case-Files Achievement Recipient
      Collapsed snow  ! ? Collapsed from what ! ? It wasnt an area where Avalanches occured.

      Collapsed or failed slab. Calculations in this report matching with DPI parameters shows that slab is only 4.95 m x 8.8 m. Not exactly avalanche as most of us imagine, but still enough snow to bury tent and cause injuries.

      https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00081-8#MOESM3

      Well the Searchers who found the Tent didnt mention any thing of Avalanche or other type of Snow Incident, they said that there was Snow on the Tent.
      DB