Dyatlov Pass Forum
Theories Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: Ryan on February 21, 2021, 04:28:32 PM
-
The Gaume and Puzrin article about the slab avalanche seems very compelling, but still somewhat incomplete. I'm considering the following:
1. Military testing of weaponry that are either Sr-90 dirty bombs, or conventional bombs spiked with Sr-90 for analysis of the blast pattern, trigger the slab avalanche.
2. Due to where the bulk of the avalanche hits the tent, and what exactly was under each person at the time, Dubinina and Zolotaryov experience crushing chest injuries, and Thibeaux-Brignolle experiences a skull injury.
3. The entrance to the tent is blocked, so the other hikers cut their way out and rescue everyone.
4. They're now exposed to the wind, possibly in the vicinity of continued ongoing military explosions, their shelter is useless, at least three of the party are seriously injured, and they are likely concerned about another avalanche. Moving downhill to the tree line, starting a fire, and making new shelter seem like the best alternative. They have limited time and ability to dress where they are, so they leave in a hurry.
5. They make a fire at the cedars.
6. They begin digging a shelter in the ravine. The three most critically injured people are put in the shelter. Kolevatov stays with them. The three eventually die from internal injuries, and Kolevatov dies of hypothermia.
7. Dyatlov, Kolmogorova, and Slobodin attempt to return to the tent once it is safe. They may have intended to fetch more supplies and return again to the others, or they may have intended to dig it out, set it up again, and signal for the others that it was safe to return. Before reaching the tent, Dyatlov and Kolmogorova die of hypothermia. Slobodin may have had head injuries from the original avalanche and tried to ignore them, or he may have fallen, injured his head, lost coordination, and injured himself further.
8. Doroshenko and Krivonischenko stay by the fire. One climbs a tree, either for firewood or to help scout for the tent and the other three in the party who are returning to it and falls. Both eventually die of hypothermia.
Meanwhile, the bodies have all been contaminated with Sr-90. The military has no idea anyone was in the vicinity of the tests. (Yes, the group received permission to be there, but in large bureaucracies, the different parts often don't communicate efficiently with each other.) The military doesn't learn of the hikers until after search parties are in the area, at which point it is too late to do anything. (If this had occurred as I suggest above, then I maintain that the military would have wanted to make the bodies and the tent disappear to avoid the negative media attention, but they had no time to do this.) After the first five bodies are discovered and removed, the military quietly suggests that Ivanov should take a Geiger counter with him to ensure everyone's safety, and they later pressure him to close the case with no mention of glowing orbs in the sky (a.k.a. aerial explosions.) The area is closed for years to give the bulk of the Sr-90 in the area a chance to get carried away by snow melt.
Alternately, the slab avalanche happens without military involvement, everything still plays out as above, and at a later time but before any significant additional snowfall could cover the bodies, military bomb testing dispersing Sr-90 manages to contaminate, at a minimum, the four bodies still in the ravine.
As much as I would like to think that there's an explanation not involving a military conspiracy, I still can't otherwise explain the presence of just beta contamination on four of the hikers' clothing. (I've found no record of the other five being tested, so it is possible, and I think most likely, that all nine were contaminated together due to a single cause.) I can think of no natural source, and it seems very unlikely that occupational sources would be pure beta emitters and not a mix of alpha, beta, and gamma. I don't believe lantern mantles could possibly be the cause, or alpha contamination would be observed. Occupational contamination might have affected one or more pieces of clothing worn by one hiker, but it would need some mechanism to spread to all the clothing tested.
Additionally, I find it incredibly unlikely that a search and rescue team in 1959 would even consider bringing a Geiger counter. Even today, in the US, it is not standard practice. People on a S&R team would want to conserve weight by not carrying any unnecessary equipment. That radiation was ever detected at all implies strongly that someone knew that there was a reason to look for radiological contamination, which points back to some kind of state conspiracy.
-
I understand your theory. I think you are putting a lot of good points together.
The main question that arises with any of the avalanche theories is how would nine pairs of footprints be walking down the ridge if Lyuda and Zolotaryev had the injuries their bodies sustained? Lyuda would have been dead in twenty minutes. Flail rib fractures, especially bilateral with cardiac puncturing, are fatal without extreme medical intervention. Flail rib fractures cause what is known as paradoxical breathing; when the lungs expand on intake, the ribs instead push in, which after a short time, will result in punctured lungs, on top of the puncture to her heart. (Everything in the DPI involves some paradox, lol!). She would not have been able to make it down the ridge. Zolotaryev's were not *as* severe being only on one side, though the threat of a lung puncture was still a given if he dud not get medical help asap, and he also had a head injury compounding things. So when talking about an avalanche of any kind, we need to be able to answer the question of how they could have walked a mile down a ridge in low temperatures with severe injuries.
My other question, and I do not know where to find answers for this. One of the theorists believes that the military was under enhanced service mode while the XXI Congress of the Communist Party was taking place in Moscow. That would mean that military was on restriction and could not leave their bases, assignments, take equipment out, etc. If that is the case, we could rule out most theories involving the military. If it is not the case, that still leaves us open to these options.
You mentioned search and rescue. Are you familiar with it? I've been thinking about putting together an almost mock s&r on the group, starting with the river tributary as a decision point, the cache and the tent on the ridge as decision points. It would not give us answers for why they left the tent, but it could help flesh out some of the events at the cedar and beyond. I'm doing a fair bit of research on lost person behavior and while the group was not lost in the traditional sense, I think we might gain some insight...might not, either, of course. But it would be interesting to see how it played out..
-
I recently saw the pages in the case document where Vozrozhdenny suggested that Dubinina would be dead in 10-20 minutes and the head wound Thibeaux-Brignolle received would have rendered him unconscious.
Could he have been wrong? These people were young and in excellent physical condition. People who are highly adrenalized, which is what would happen if they had just survived their tent being crushed under snow, can perform some amazing physical feats when they need to do so for survival.
Now, they are exposed on the side of the mountain in the cold, underdressed, and lacking in shelter from the wind. Digging out the tent would take too much time. Three are seriously injured. They probably had considered camping at the tree line earlier and now realized pushing on was a mistake. So the obvious path to survival is to make for the tree line as rapidly as possible, where they have a natural wind break and can make a fire. This is downhill, so gravity is working in their favor.
This also explains the lack of clothing and footwear. Going downhill immediately in socks towards shelter and fire is a higher priority than taking the time to dig footwear out of a flattened tent and then taking the time to put it on while standing around exposed in high winds. Perhaps they felt that once they could get shelter and warmth at the tree line, they could later send the strongest to return for more clothes, blankets, and boots?
As to the footprints being orderly, I can only suggest that the interpretation of several week old footprints in snow is not a perfect science. I think it was more of a scramble to get down the slope, with some hikers helping the injured, and perhaps others went ahead to get a head start on a fire.
If there were military bombs going off, that would provide an even greater incentive for retreating down the slope for cover. Even if not, they thought they survived an avalanche. They didn’t realize it was just limited to the snow immediately above the cutout they made, and probably assumed it originated farther up the mountain and more may be coming at any minute. Either way, being out non that slope with no functioning shelter leaves them very exposed, so going downhill would feel like the right decision. While adrenalized, they may not even initially feel the severity of their lack of clothing and shoes.
I didn’t realize there were any limitations on the military at the time. In that case, I’m completely at a loss. Nine pieces of clothing from all four hikers testing as contaminated with beta-only radiation is just screaming that the military has to be involved.
I’m not personally involved in S&R.
-
Before going further ask yourselves one simple question: Would you camp on that exposed ridge? And if you wouldn't what makes you think they would?
-
Before going further ask yourselves one simple question: Would you camp on that exposed ridge? And if you wouldn't what makes you think they would?
I think that’s a good question. Still, it’s well documented that human decision making lapses due to a desire to get to a destination. Pilots, in particular, are cautioned about it. A lot of aviation accidents happen because people choose to continue in bad weather rather than turn around and divert to the nearest airport. Dyatlov may have been reluctant to give up the altitude he gained.
This also wasn’t just a fun vacation. It was the highest certification offered. So camping on that exposed ridge could be justified as practice for camping in extreme conditions above the tree line, and it would be excellent experience to have under one’s belt. They could have underestimated the weather and conditions they would be facing.
Also, if they didn’t camp there, then it implies the tent was staged. Who would do that and why?
If the military or the KGB wanted to cover it up (maybe because the hikers saw something they shouldn’t have, or they got themselves killed by wandering into a live ordnance exercise) then the tent and the bodies would simply disappear. The response at the time was a public relations disaster that did not look good for the state. It would be far preferable if the search party found nothing. There wouldn’t be awkward questions for a criminal investigation.
I also have a hard time believing anyone else murdered them. Valuable cameras, wrist watches, food, clothing, and gear were all left. I don’t see why anyone would want to take the effort and risk to kill 9 people, steal nothing, and then take further time and effort to stage a crime scene, all in extreme conditions. This is especially true when the people had cameras and the perpetrators couldn’t be sure what evidence the cameras contained.
-
I think it's very unlikely Semyon and Lyuda would have been able to move anywhere with those fractures, even with help. Anyone who's ever suffered a serious break of a bone would probably agree with that. It's hard to convey how unbelievably painful it is to someone who's not experienced it and the very last thing you would want or be able to do is move. I don't know why someone would want to stage the scene, but I think the most likely explanation is that somebody did.
-
I recently saw the pages in the case document where Vozrozhdenny suggested that Dubinina would be dead in 10-20 minutes and the head wound Thibeaux-Brignolle received would have rendered him unconscious.
Could he have been wrong? These people were young and in excellent physical condition. People who are highly adrenalized, which is what would happen if they had just survived their tent being crushed under snow, can perform some amazing physical feats when they need to do so for survival.
Now, they are exposed on the side of the mountain in the cold, underdressed, and lacking in shelter from the wind. Digging out the tent would take too much time. Three are seriously injured. They probably had considered camping at the tree line earlier and now realized pushing on was a mistake. So the obvious path to survival is to make for the tree line as rapidly as possible, where they have a natural wind break and can make a fire. This is downhill, so gravity is working in their favor.
This also explains the lack of clothing and footwear. Going downhill immediately in socks towards shelter and fire is a higher priority than taking the time to dig footwear out of a flattened tent and then taking the time to put it on while standing around exposed in high winds. Perhaps they felt that once they could get shelter and warmth at the tree line, they could later send the strongest to return for more clothes, blankets, and boots?
As to the footprints being orderly, I can only suggest that the interpretation of several week old footprints in snow is not a perfect science. I think it was more of a scramble to get down the slope, with some hikers helping the injured, and perhaps others went ahead to get a head start on a fire.
If there were military bombs going off, that would provide an even greater incentive for retreating down the slope for cover. Even if not, they thought they survived an avalanche. They didn’t realize it was just limited to the snow immediately above the cutout they made, and probably assumed it originated farther up the mountain and more may be coming at any minute. Either way, being out non that slope with no functioning shelter leaves them very exposed, so going downhill would feel like the right decision. While adrenalized, they may not even initially feel the severity of their lack of clothing and shoes.
I didn’t realize there were any limitations on the military at the time. In that case, I’m completely at a loss. Nine pieces of clothing from all four hikers testing as contaminated with beta-only radiation is just screaming that the military has to be involved.
I’m not personally involved in S&R.
While Vozrozhdenny did say that Lyuda could have survived twenty minutes, there is also a plethora of research and evidence that this statement was true. Modernly, something like 78% of flail rib fractures occur during vehicular collisions where the injured hit the steering wheel or seat belt during the impact. The next highest percentage are from falls (albeit there is a correlation to the majority of those falls being in elderly populations.) There has been an increasing amount of research on flail rib fractures associated with CPR, however, those also typically show a separation of the connective tissue from the rib to sternum and fracturing of the sternum. They are also almost all bilateral. I once wondered if any of the rav 4 chest injuries could be attributed to CPR but the only fractures that came close to those from compressions were Lyuda's and she had no other compounding injuries that would have necessitated CPR to begin with (that we know of,) plus she did not seem to have any disconnection with the connective tissue or sternum. I can share from experience that a simple inflammation in the connective tissue of the rib to sternum is worse than childbirth. I can not imagine the pain from tearing... But I am off topic, as I often get, lol!
Yes, someone *could* conceivably still move around with those injuries but it is extremely, extremely rare and not to the degree of movement that Lyuda would have required to go from the tent to the den or ravine. Every inspiration (breathing in where the lungs expand,) the fractured rib ends move inward. This is excruciatingly painful and results in punctured lungs if not treated immediately (but also remember that Lyuda's heart had been pierced.) That further exacerbates the body's ability to push oxygenated blood around the body. Whether there was abnormal weather or not, breathing in low temperatures is still labor intensive. Even moreso when walking a mile with injuries that severe and little protective clothing. While yes, there is a minute chance she could have done it, that chance was probably less than 1%. I know she was one tough lady; after being shot in the leg on a hike, she still insisted on carrying her own gear while being helped to safety, which is no small thing. She was a courageous and strong woman.
But the injuries she sustained at the ridge were much more extreme (and obviously and very sadly fatal.) Could Zolotaryev have made it down the ridge? There is a slightly higher chance tor him; his fractures were unilateral and not quite as severe, though still very serious and fatal without medical intervention. However, he had other compounding injuries, namely the head wound on the right side of his head...the same side as his rib fractures and shoulder injury (observed when they exhumed his bones.)
Something to note with regard to the rib fractures. Typically with flail rib fractures, the first through the third or fourth set of ribs are less likely to be broken. The higher rib pairs have better protection from the clavicle and denser matter underneath so they are better protected. However, both Zolotaryev and Lyuda sustained fractures to the second ribs through 5-7th ribs. This is not common and may at some point be an important clue for how the injuries came to be, at the very least for Lyuda. I've looked at more X-Rays of flail chest injuries recently than I ever expected to to try and aggragate data on the more common causes of flail fractures on the upper ribs but I don't have any common patterns, as of yet. Someone with more extensive medical knowledge of traumatic chest injuries might have better insight.
-
There were definitely 8 sets of footprints and there's no way Semyon, Lyudmila and Nicolai were walking anywhere after those injuries.
-
My other question, and I do not know where to find answers for this. One of the theorists believes that the military was under enhanced service mode while the XXI Congress of the Communist Party was taking place in Moscow. That would mean that military was on restriction and could not leave their bases, assignments, take equipment out, etc.
That is my understanding as well. But, unfortunately, I cannot off-the-top-of-my-head provide a good source to substantiate it. So, I wonder how accurate it is? I've been thinking for a while that it's a good idea to question what we "know" about the DPI (https://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=652.msg11774#msg11774).
Before going further ask yourselves one simple question: Would you camp on that exposed ridge? And if you wouldn't what makes you think they would?
Also, if they didn’t camp there, then it implies the tent was staged. Who would do that and why?
That's the topic of the new book by Igor Pavlov and our own Teddy (Theodora Hadjiyska)!
There were definitely 8 sets of footprints and there's no way Semyon, Lyudmila and Nicolai were walking anywhere after those injuries.
Agreed. That's pretty much the final word on the matter (assuming the Dyatlov Nine pitched their tent where the search party found it). Except, I'd phrase it as "probably 8 sets of footprints, possibly 9".
-
My other question, and I do not know where to find answers for this. One of the theorists believes that the military was under enhanced service mode while the XXI Congress of the Communist Party was taking place in Moscow. That would mean that military was on restriction and could not leave their bases, assignments, take equipment out, etc.
That is my understanding as well. But, unfortunately, I cannot off-the-top-of-my-head provide a good source to substantiate it. So, I wonder how accurate it is? I've been thinking for a while that it's a good idea to question what we "know" about the DPI (https://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=652.msg11774#msg11774).
Before going further ask yourselves one simple question: Would you camp on that exposed ridge? And if you wouldn't what makes you think they would?
Also, if they didn’t camp there, then it implies the tent was staged. Who would do that and why?
That's the topic of the new book by Igor Pavlov and our own Teddy (Theodora Hadjiyska)!
There were definitely 8 sets of footprints and there's no way Semyon, Lyudmila and Nicolai were walking anywhere after those injuries.
Agreed. That's pretty much the final word on the matter (assuming the Dyatlov Nine pitched their tent where the search party found it). Except, I'd phrase it as "probably 8 sets of footprints, possibly 9".
I am sorry for not better clipping my replies; I am still learning the interface and such :(
I have been trying to figure out where to find information to confirm or disprove the military restrictions. Its been an arduous task, thus far. I think it could be really helpful in the questions around military involvement. If they were on a restriction, that would not necessarily eliminate the possibility of military involvement. I read somewhere that someone was using military equipment during the restriction and the Dyatlov group saw it.) But I think it could possibly limit the ideas about organized military testing.
Re: the footprints. I have gone back and forth on my opinions with them however, I think I've convinced myself that they are genuinely from the Dyatlov group. I am using Maslennikov as somewhat of a control; although he was involved in the UPI sports hierarchy, he did not have any dogs in the fight like others did (such as Ivanov feeling pressure from above, locals maybe wanting to hide things or just get everyone out of their region, the Mansi who were under suspicion at first, etc.) While Maslennikov was still human and made human errors, I do think he was honest in his statements and his journals. He drew outlines of a barefoot and a booted foot from the footprints he saw. That indicates to me that the footprints must have been left by Dyatlov's group because who else would be walking around up there barefoot? They could be part of a cover-up, absolutely but I have to make a couple more leaps for that than I do for the footprints being genuine. I still somewhat question the possibility of other footprints being mixed in but that varies by day, lol. I also do think that Churkina would have given sound analysis of the footprints, as her area of expertise was in the fields of trace examination (while not in the traditional definition for trace evidence, I stilk think this would qualify under that field,) as well as handwriting analysis (which is focusing on patterns, not dissimilar in many ways.) I question her analysis of the tent personally, but not her analysis of the footprints. Knowing that she did actually go to the ridge, I feel more confident than if she had only looked at the pictures but even so, she is trained to look for specific patterns.