Prove Me Wrong: The Two Trigger Night

[OLD JEDI 72]

I am testing a simple frame. A small natural event at the tent starts the rush. A human event at the cedar and ravine turns a bad night into a fatal one. I am not picking a single winner. I want the room to stress test the timing and the work it would take.

A) Fixed anchors we should honor

Tent on the slope, group exits fast, tracks preserved and readable. Source

Two Yuris found at the cedar with a worked fire site. Source

The last four found in the ravine near the den site. Exact cedar to ravine distance is often quoted as about 75 m, but the site cautions the mapping is approximate. Site
 note

Tent to cedar is about 1.5 km. Source

Autopsy pattern: hypothermia for most, severe trauma for the ravine four. Autopsies

B) What I am proposing to test

A small slab or wind load event at the tent that is enough to force a rapid exit without gear but not leave a dramatic debris field weeks later. For plausibility of a small delayed slab, see the Swiss modeling. Nature Communications 2021

A second trigger at or below the cedar that shifts the night from survival to conflict or accident during shelter work.

C) Timed tasks the forum can replicate and post

Travel time tent to cedar in boots on wind-affected snow at night.
a) Distance: 1.5 km.
b) Post your pace over 500 m repeats and the total time for 1.5 km.
c) Note snow depth, wind, temp, and how much you are carrying.

Fire start at the cedar by two people with limited kindling.
a) How many minutes to a sustained flame that can dry hands.
b) What fuel and shaving method worked best.

Branch work and the so called window.
a) With a small knife or hatchet, time how long it takes to cut enough branches for both fuel and limited screening.

Ravine labor.
a) Time how long for a small team to scoop a short trench and roof it with branches and snow until it supports a thin load.
b) Record when the roof fails under added wind-packed snow.

Cedar to ravine spacing.
a) If you have GPS from a field visit, post your measured cedar to den distance and bearing so we can bracket the range.

D) Math checkpoints to keep us honest

Walking pace in snow at night will slow to about 1.5 to 4.0 km/h depending on depth and drift. For 1.5 km, that is roughly 60 to 22 minutes. Post your actual numbers.

Fire start times in subzero wind can range from 3 to 15 minutes depending on fuel and shavings. Post your method and time to steady flame.

Branch cutting rates vary widely. Time per branch x total cuts is better than guesses.

Ravine work is the wildcard. Please post total minutes to roof and the collapse point under added snow.

E) What a pass looks like

Your totals make tent to cedar travel, fire start, branch work, and initial ravine effort fit a continuous sequence without superhuman speeds.

The second trigger is supported by details at the cedar or ravine, not just vibes.

F) What a fail looks like

The timings break the chain and force gaps we cannot explain.

The work at the cedar or ravine cannot be done in the available window without better shelter or gear than we can support.

Sources

Tracks and how they present in supercooled snow: dyatlovpass.com/lev-ivanov

Two Yuris and fire site at the cedar: dyatlovpass.com/under-the-cedar

Ravine overview and mapping caution: dyatlovpass.com/ravine

Tent to cedar about 1.5 km: dyatlovpass.com/death

Autopsies index: dyatlovpass.com/gallery-chapter-7-autopsy-reports

Slab plausibility paper: Nature Communications 2021

[Ziljoe]

I don't know if you are asking us to formulate times for your questions OJ?

I did put some examples in here that include walking in socks in the snow , collecting fire wood from trees and how they break without tools , how the hikers may have cut the young den flooring trees for example.

https://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=1507.0

It would be difficult to put times to the events that you ask because of the many variables but I believe they could all be done.

I did have an excellent video of a guy walking into a snow bank next to a road . He just put his foot on the crust and the whole bank gave way . I shall try to find it.