Presence of water in the foothills of Kholat

[Osi]

The major problem with the water supply is that you stand at the source of some of the sources that feed the Auspiya and Lozva rivers. Above there are bare hills and you cannot see a stream. Considering the current temperatures, the thaw will only begin in March, so only then will you have access to sufficient water. To get ready water, you will have to descend to a much lower altitude and break the ice. They must have known that after walking 1 km from the tent on bare ground and entering the forest, there would be no chance of melt water for another 500 meters. There was no reason to go down to the forest to clean up or get water, and there was no canteen or other equipment to carry water. If the decision to spend a night without fire on the summit had been planned in advance, we would probably have witnessed his notes on the last pages of the diaries. A blizzard that suddenly came towards the end of a late start of the hike, not being able to determine how far the forest was due to poor visibility, and the fear of losing the altitude gained and not being able to set up the tent in the dark...
If there is no possibility of progress due to the blizzard and there is very little time left until dark, setting up camp where you are seems like a logical option.
I remember reading statements that there was a log in the stove or enough pieces of wood to fill the stove. This corresponds to a heating source that will melt the snow to provide enough water for everyone on an extremely cold night and will last 2-3 hours for the tent occupants.
You don't have to go down to the forest and leave to get wood and water.

[GlennM]

Good thinking Osi. Is your opinion that the group fully intended to make it to the lake is a single march, but got stalled for the second time by weather on the ridge?

[Osi]

I don't think they had a goal to reach the lake. At TO altitude, they can only get water by melting snow. I agree with the idea that they had to stop due to natural conditions. First, not being able to move because of the heavy load and moving north, getting caught in a blizzard on the slope. You can't see how far the forest is from the slope until you leave Labaz and go up the pass. It is obvious that they couldn't see the forest because of the fog when they ascended from the left of the pass and reached the slope.

[GlennM]

Osi, how could they responsibly proceed with such an obvious oversight?  Either they carry water or they move from water source to water source. This is worth additional consideration. Did they carry water? Did they expect to use the stove to melt snow? Did they make a small fire outside of the tent? Did they expect to move from labaz to lake in one push.?

If they got stalled out at their last camp site, there need not be 9 people going in socks for a drink of water. Instead , 6 could make camp and 2 ski downslope with a carrier to fetch water. Better still, make fire at ir in the tent abd melt snow, yes?

[Arjan]

Until now I have read one reason why the group had made their campsite for the night at the tent-site: the journalist collective Aleksej Rakitin has made clear that the sun had already disappeared/set behind a mountain around 15:30 pm. Everyone who has been in the mountains knows that when the sun disappears behind a mountain-range it will start to get cold. According to my estimation, the group had arrived at the tentsite around 15 - 15:30 pm. This may have been caused by bad planning: the tracking record of planning of this group had not been flawless until the accent from the storage (in my opinion).

Another plausible reason is, the one or two group members had been injured during the climb from the storage due to e.g. a slide. Especially when the severity of the injury had not been clear, the tent site is an ideal place for òr continuing the tour when the injury had been minor òr returning when the injury had been worse. Possible injuries that make this kind of compromise logic are: brain concussion, bruises on the lower belly that may have caused internal bleedings. During the night the severity of this kind of injuries may be evaluated better than after the accident.

The consequences of the choice for the campsite had been: no liquid water available while no fuel and gazoline burner had been found among the possessions of the group.

The source of liquid water nearby had been: ..... the stream in the ravine!

It makes sense that some 5-6 group members had prepared the tentsite and the interior of the tent while 3 group members had descended - on foot and not on skis (because skis had been necessary as floor in the tent and walking back with water in buckets and skis in hands is more cumbersome than descending on foot - to the ravine. The walk/descend had taken around 15 minutes are so. The return trip might have taken around 20 minutes or so.
This calculation shows that the 3 group members might have been able to fetch water in the ravine and return to the tentsite well before local sunset around 17 pm at that date.


 

[GlennM]

Arjan, I like your idea, but we must account for how water was to be carried back to camp. Does the inventory give us a clue? The criminal case does not mention what equipemnt the ravine 4 had with them. If three went for water, then who? What is your thinking about this, Arjan?

I think those who went for water would be fully clothed. I think they would ski down hill and shoulder their skis on the way back. It seems more reasonable to go for firewood rather than water. The fire supplis melt water and heat for cooking and warmth. Further, I think they would be smart and pack firewood from the labaz area.

I think if the last camp was pitched in order to tend to injured team members, there is little justification to trek a half mile into the forest. The same effort should be exerted to go back to the labaz and home.

The unknown compelling force was transient, else it would be known. For me, that means weather phenomona. However, it makes little sense to leave any shelter in a blizzard. It makes no sense to abandon a snow covered tent, if the combined effort of nine people could not clear the overburden. It makes no sense to blame killers. All behavior is motivated. There was none. Everybody leaves clues at a crime scene. It is inescapable. No crime, no clues.

The mystery is comparable to trying to determine what was thrown in a swimming pool by looking at the ripples.

[Arjan]

As far as I am aware, the ravine area had never been investigated as a crime scenery/area by the second search party.
By the way, this had been an awful lot of work, removing some four meters high snow by hand over a large area.

The way the den and the four group members had been found on the floor of the ravine near the snow, suggest that the snow conditions had been very favourable for the group members (at the end of January).
If this had been the case, group members descending to the ravine had not needed to dig in the snow - or use tools like ace-axes - to have access the stream in the ravine for fetching running water.
All in all the stream in the ravine had been very easily accessible for fetching running water at the date when the group members had set up the tent area.

The obvious way to carry sufficient water back to the tent site is by hand in waterbottles or in buckets.

If I may guess who had descended to the ravine area to fetch water is using the photos by the camear as a hint:
- three group members are visible on the photos taken on the last days of the group as a subgroup, see the next 'loose photo':



On this photo, Zinaida is passing by in the front while Semyon invited her to join the three group member: the way she smiles on other photos showing the four, shows that she had joined on this portrait of the four with reluctancy. Based in body language visible on photos from the cameras, I have the impression that Semyon and Zinaida had not been natural friends during the tour.

So based on teh photos made by the cameras, I guess that Lyudmila, Semyon and Thibo had descended to the ravine in order to fetch running water.

The post-mortem reports provide another hind for estimating who had descended to the ravine:
- Only Lyudmila and Semyon had broken ribcages
- Thibo had a bad partly crushed skull at the side of his head.

In case a blast wave had caused this injuries, these three group members had been standing in the ravine area:
- Lyudmila and Semyon on the floor of the ravine, because the shape of the ravine operates as a concave lense for a pressure wave from a blast high in the air. The shape of the ravine causes that the pressure on the two ribcages had been twice the value of the original pressure wave descending to the ground.
- Thibo had been standing on top of the ravine: the convex top diverts the original pressure causing a considerable lower reflection: he had been mainly hit by the original pressure, only half the pressure that Lyudmila and Semyon had have on their ribcage. Unconscious, Thibo had fallen sideways from the top to the bottom of the ravine: his head had hit a round stone in/near the stream.

In the theory that I have drafted, Zinaida had spent the night in the tent with Rustem - hint: they had been often on duty together according to their diaries. The next day, Zinaida and Rustem had placed the bodies of the other group members in the postures as found by the two search parties. While doing so in the ravine, Rustem had fallen and as a result had a crack in his skull. On the way back to the tent, Rustem had suddenly collapsed by brain damage: Zinaida had waited next to him until it had been obvious - that he was dead; she had turned him until his face was not visible anymore. At that time - somewhere 9 pm the next day, her hypothermia had progressed that she had been able to walk a small distance home - the tent in this case. 

[GlennM]

That the ravine was not considered a crime scene is telling. The searchers did not suspect foul play, or it would be noted. The searchers found nothing other than the bodies and  a mat of branches with cloth remnants at the corners for seating. Can we assume that the ravine 4 safely and successfully first made their wood mat and used it? Would they leave the mat and drink ice cold,water? Was a fire made at the wood mat?  Perhaps when Zolo or Lyuda went for water,and there was an accident.

Is physical damage from an airburst more probable than a slip-fall from the embankment or slippery stones ? Is a collapsed snow cave even more plausible? A belly full of frozen ice water would be thawed and measured at autopsy. An areial detonation should damage trees. The same trees would absorb energy from the blast. Is it likely that by chance the detonation was in such direct proximity to the ravine group? What type detonation?  Is it one that leaves shrapnel and casing debris? Is it one that sprays unspent chemicals like nitrates which color skin orange? Perhaps a meteorite strewn field happened?

I think whatever  happened at the cedar change the group dynamic. I can believe Igor, Zina and Rustem went to the tent for salvage. If an aircraft were to pass by, so much the better. I,Z,R did not spell SOS on the snow, the tent was the priority,,though hopeless. They spent too long in the woods.

Is it possible I,Z,R were unaware of the troubles at the ravine?  Surely someone would stay to tend the injured, if they were aware of injuries. Would not those in the ravine who were less affected comfort those who were worse off?  Is that what searchers found? Or did the injuries happen post mortem?

Any blast affecting the ravine 4 would similarly affect I,Z,R.

[Arjan]

Other details that may hint on a pressure/blast wave hitting the tent area to a lesser extend are:

- tent cut from inside caused by group members cutting themselves in panic out of the tent after being hit by the pressure wave
- Foam on the mouth of Yuri Dor as result of a limited blast lung
- Zinaida and Rustem having clear visible bloodvessels due to damaged and/or temporally numbed valves in bloodvessels. Zinaida in her underlegs (see post mortem report) and Rustem visible on his underarms on photos taken in the mortuary.
- No snow and a icy surface between the tent and the cedar/ravine due to melted and refrozen snow caused by the pressure and refrozen in the cold night afterwards

So the tentsite may well have been hit by the pressure wave although less severe.

[GlennM]

Heat scorch?

[Arjan]

Put an adequate pressure on - on the top layer of - snow and it will melt.

[ahabmyth]

ITS PITCH BLACK - Maybe they can see their hands in front of their face. Probably be able to see the contours of the mountains because of the snow I dont know. Was there a moon at the time, anyone care to find out and maybe we will know what they could see.

[Arjan]

Many years ago, I have investigated the period of the moon during the fatal night. If I remember well, it had been half moon.
If my memory is correct, with a clear sky - and as a consequence a very cold night - the visibility had been rather well during the fatal night.

It makes fully sense if three group members had looked for running water in the ravine around 15:30 - 16:00 pm on the afternoon before the fatal night.

The journalist collective Aleksej Rakatin has shown in their book that the sun had descended at the tentsite behind the mountains at around 15 pm at the end of January.
If this is correct, then it had started to be cold in case the sky had been clear.

While preparing the tentsite the group may well have followed its normal procedure:
5 - 6 group members setting up the tent and preparing the tent for the night
3 - 4 group members gathering firewood and fetching running water.

If so, the 3 - 4 group members had descended to the ravine during daylight in the second half of the afternoon.

In my theory,
- these 3 - 4 group members had not returned to the tentsite due to their severe - fatal wounds obtain by an external source while fetching running water in the ravine.
- 4 group members had descended to the ravine at dusk - hint: flashlight found halfway switched on serving as beacon to find the way back halfway to the tentsite in dark - to look after the fate of the 3 - 4 group members in the ravine
- 2 group members had spent the night in the tent - hint: flashlight on the tent to serve as second guidance to find the tent for returning group members - under full insulation of many blankets while keeping eachother warm. Both have descended the next morning and have placed the other group members in postures as found by the seach parties. Of both, Rustem had fallen on the icy surface and cracked his skull: he had suddenly succumbed due to brain failure. Zinaida had guarded him until it had been obvious that he had livy spots as well. Then she had progressed so far in hypothermia that she had only been able to return some hunderd meters home - the tent in her case - until she lost consciousness for the last time.

At once many details as found by both search parties start to make sense. 

 

[GlennM]

Arjan, the rescue party who descended to the woods to help their stricken friends had no need to knife open the tent to start their descent.

[ahabmyth]

Afraid dosnt make sense to me about bringing water. On this day we are told there were extremely windy conditions, we only have to look at some of the last photos taken to imagine this. So if we assume there was plenty of snow it would be easier in those conditions just to scoop up some snow and melt it. We know the oven wasnt used as it was found in its box, so maybe they had an alternative sauce to use. Doing this would save 2 people 30minutes in that terrible weather.

[GlennM]

It certainly seems to reduce to whether the group split up or stayed together. I feel that two people walking for a mile round trip to fetch water is unbeliebable. I believe nine people descending as group for the same resource is also unbelievable. I rule out the liklihood that their final camp was in the forest because Igor's diary gives no indications. Therefore the final camp at elevation 880 on 1079 was abandoned for the greater good of the expedition. I feel that since the tent was cut away, the immediate and lingering threat was suffocation from sliding snow.

[ahabmyth]

Arjan - Well done for thinking about the moon phase.
Unfortunately I done believe a theory that their could have been a clear night. The last pictures taken show some of the group on ski's in a blizzard and a few pics of them getting ready to assemble the tent and the weather then looks the same.
For the same reason (bad weather) I do not believe that anyone would be looking for water or firewood as they were well above the treeline.
I only assume that they would all be hunkered down in the tent trying to keep warm.
The fact that they didnt use the stove was strange but when you think about the amount of wood it would take to keep a reasonable fire going all night maybe they didnt think it worth it. I dont know much about these stoves. I know (first hand) that there were (in the UK) a paraffin based sort of wax that was used to start a fire. The amount of fuel in the stove must have been quite small and lets not forget the tent was 2 tents sewn together, maybe then thinking it not worth it.

[ahabmyth]

Arjan re Pressure blast wave.
             Lets not forget that only 13klm away was another group of hikers who more than likely would have bee affected. Unless we assume a targeted strike was spot on.

[Arjan]

@ahabmyth

On Dyatlovpass.com are two webpage available on 'weather reports' under the menu heading 'case files'.

One of these two webpages has as title: 'There was no snowstorm'

https://dyatlovpass.com/investigation-materials-2?rbid=18461

Based on my analysis, the content of this webpage has a rather high reliability.

Next to this: only the two photos of 5 - 6 group members preparing the floor for the tent? show a heap of snow.
Have you ever counted the number of skis on both photos?
Have you ever counted how many of these skis on both photos have visible ski bindings?

Based on my analysis - taking into account two post by Russian bloggers - I take into account that the photos developed and printed from the films found in the tent had been manipulated in one way or another in the dark room after being found by the first search party.

On the pressure blast wave: light balls had been reported around the fatal night/day for the group.

@GlennM
Have you ever experienced a pressure blast wave while sitting in a tent?
If not, please do so as thought experiment.
What would you do when having being hit by a pressure blast wave?
Opening the tent and stepping neatly outside?
Or cut your way as quickly as possible to the outside, because you image being hit a an avalanche or so?
Standing outside, the decompression following the pressure wave would have caused a full white out.

By the way, the foam on the mouth of Yuri Dor may hint on a blast lung: no fun at all.

Yuri Dor would be a candidate to cut himself and others as quickly as possible outside the tent: secondary sources describe how he had chased away a bear using a hammer.

Yuri Kri may well be another candidate for cutting himself and others out of the tent: he is visible on the photos wearing a Finnish knife in a rather stupid fashion at his belt.
Stupid fashion, because after a fall forwards, the lemmet of the knive may pass the cover and penitrate the underbelly or innerside of the legs, causing a fatal wound by penitrating the intestines, or causing a fatal bleeding after cutting one of the two main arteries to the legs (this kind of bleeding is nearly unstoppable).

[GlennM]

Hi Arjan, I have certainly not experienced the blast you suggest,  but when I think of my experiences, I know that large pressure changes can surely result in a ruptured eardrum accompanied by ear bleeding and blood in the mouth.

Further, in the DP9 situation in the tent, I would protect my ears with my hands. I would be dazed by concussion. I,would not think clearly for a time. If the blast moved a volume of material on top of the tent,I would ,fear suffocation. I would not hesitate to cut myself free, and keep my cutting tool with me. I would evacuate the tent and look at where the detonation came from. I would move with haste in the opposite direction. I would help my companions to seek shelter. I would not immediately think to dress or otherwise equip myself and delay others.

If I , in a moment of lucidity , felt the blast was a,singular event, I would consider returning to the tent and home,as quickly as was prudent. If I felt the blast was likely to be repeated, I would try to get behind something or below ground level for protection. When I felt the threat was over, I would return to the tent and home if injuries warranted it..

A blast of the magnitude that would fell a tree,,would certainly demolish a canvas tent on sticks.  If the detonation were closer to the woods, I would not retreat in that direction. If the blast was in the vicinity of the peak of 1079, I'd expect the loss,of my shelter either from sonic impact, or slab slide. If the blast was an aerial detonation, I do not think the footprints found in the snow could be made, since the lighg snow that I compress when I step on it would be swept away by the same force of blast that collapsed my tent and felled a tree a half mile distant.

[Arjan]

Thank you GlennM for sharing the result of the proposed thought experiment.

After reading your reply, I am again amazed that no entry on otoscopy - at that time looking through a hole in a hollow mirror attached before one eye of the ENT-doctor - is available in any of the post mortem reports.
Nowadays, every doctor in NL has a otoscoop available as 'swiss army knife' for looking inside the outer earchannel, using as illuminated magnifier for spots on the skin, as dedicated flashlight for inspecting the throat, etc.

Why did the coroner not make any reference to checking the eardrums? Did he not see the need, was he not allowed, or did he have no access to a otoscoop in use at the end of the 50s of last century.

My result of the same thought experiment:
I would 'freeze' and be shocked by the rupture of my eardrums.
After regaining my sense, I would suspect that an availanche or so had hit the tent.
In company with Yuri Dor and Yuri Kri, I would follow one or both of them when they had cut themselves to the outside by making big cuts in the tent cover.
Standing outside I would be flabbergasted by the full white out caused by the under pressure letting the few water particles in the air freeze to mist.

After some time and coming to my sense, I would check the damage of the tent cover.
Probably I would erect the tent again on one or two skipoles in a very low position to serve as emergency bivac for the cold night. We would survive a cold night in this tent huddled together under the available cover, but it would be a long uncomfortable night.

The next morning - with the onset of hypothermia - we would return to the labaz. During the descend we would warm up again. Without slides or accidents, we would have lunch at the labaz. After calculation, we would take only our essential material and make a quick hike to 2nd settlement or we would take all our belongings and we would have an additional campsite before arriving in 2nd settlement.

During the return trip we would have to care for a few members with a blast lung.

Why didn't the group return in this manner, while saving the lifes of most group members?

My best guess: ethics did not allow leaving wounded group members behind who had been fatally/severely wounded by the blast in/on the ravine.

[GlennM]

Arjan, your thoughtful answer reminds me how response to a particular crisis may be sensible, but never assured until it actually happens.We imagined our own reaction to the threat Igor and others experienced.. Go or stay? Turn left or right? Help or hide?  Perhaps eight of them subordinated their reactions and deferred to Igor's leadership. I have no doubt that they were all strong willed. I do not doubt that the first fatalities changed the group dynamic. Ziljoe opines that it might have just come down to fate, irregardless of the choices they made.For me, fate means that any choice is useless for better or worse.Things will happen just one way. Call it a compelling force.Nature is indifferent.Think about passengers on Titanic.

I want to believe they , the DP9, behaved nobly right to the end.