Senior M, we are agreed on the path and the rationale for the path. The follow up idea is why they got as far as they did. Their climb to the ridge was not particularly easy, as the diary hints. As a group they were equal to the hardship. The diaries suggest that for the most part, all were in good spirits, Lyuda excepted. Photos shows more smiles than frowns.
I believe that while pitching the tent was a slower and more deliberate activity, knifing out of it was quite the opposite. Only some event that was both rapid and unanticipated would justify such action. This makes me lean toward natural events, perferably my oft repeated slab slip idea, but the detonation of a rocket or a meteoric bolide would also be sufficiently sudden. None of them have left indisputable evidence. There is little point in running away from any of them. In fact, the tracks do not support running from the tent. I think whereas a blast from a man made or meteoric object is oover and done in a flash, a mound of snow is going to take time to attend to. I would argue that if the group decided to get warm, get rest and come back in the day time to clear up the mess, it would be reasonable...if the weather cooperated.
Finally, because Ivanov changed his point of view and went to an extreme later on, I have discounted his credibility. For me, he knew as much or little as anyone else. What he could do was gain notoriety and money from spinning the deaths of the hikers into something that sells pulp magazines.