August 09, 2020, 03:33:35 AM
Dyatlov Pass Forum

Author Topic: Back to the Rav4  (Read 2975 times)

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July 08, 2020, 07:34:09 AM
Reply #30
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MDGross


I'm just asking, could being buried in snow for 3 months change the color of bruises so that they no longer look like bruises?

July 08, 2020, 08:27:35 AM
Reply #31
Online

Nigel Evans


I'm just asking, could being buried in snow for 3 months change the color of bruises so that they no longer look like bruises?
The four bodies carry several bruises. But no bruise that explains the fractures.

So the falling theory seems almost impossible.
  • Bruising occurs but doesn't exist for the fractures.
  • No broken limbs.
  • From memory two corpses demonstrate unusual throat mobility (Alex and Lyudmila).
  • I'm no expert but my understanding is that you would need a fall of six stories/60 feet.
  • In late Feb Tempalov estimated the snow depth to be 2-6m.
  • They were found under 3.5m.
The evidence points to dying under the snow from crushing. Or the evidence is a fabrication and it was murder. Falling is as probable as aliens.



July 08, 2020, 10:19:40 AM
Reply #32
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Tony


    I'm just asking, could being buried in snow for 3 months change the color of bruises so that they no longer look like bruises?
    The four bodies carry several bruises. But no bruise that explains the fractures.

    So the falling theory seems almost impossible.
    • Bruising occurs but doesn't exist for the fractures.
    Medical examiner listed fall as a possible explanation for the fractures
       
    • No broken limbs.
    If you landed on your chest or head you wouldn't have broken limbs
       
    • From memory two corpses demonstrate unusual throat mobility (Alex and Lyudmila).
    Ok
       
    • I'm no expert but my understanding is that you would need a fall of six stories/60 feet.
    No. If a 170 lb person fell 6 feet onto rocks it is possible to fracture ribs (see my previous post). This spring I fell while riding a skateboard in a concrete bowl. I fell from approximately 4 feet and the back of my head slammed into the concrete. Luckily I was wearing a helmet that absorbed the shock otherwise I would have cracked my skull. The helmet I was using cracked in 3 different places and is now unusable. Also, it happened so fast that I had not time to block the fall and had zero injuries to my hands, arms, or legs. Again, the medical examiner listed fall as a possible cause of injuries.
       
    • In late Feb Tempalov estimated the snow depth to be 2-6m.
    ?
       
    • They were found under 3.5m.
    They were found almost 4 months later - it snowed and they were covered.
    [/list]The evidence points to dying under the snow from crushing. Or the evidence is a fabrication and it was murder. Falling is as probable as aliens.

    I can not find a single case where someone died of a snowcave collapse where the cause of death was anything but asphyxiation. They were not in the den when they died. Falling is the most logical explanation for the injuries. The medical examiner listed falling as a possible cause of injury on Lyuda, Sasha, and Thibeaux-Brignolle.

    "If there exists a fact which can only be thought of as sinister. A fact which can only point to some sinister underpinning, you will never be able to think up all the non-sinister, perfectly valid explanations for that fact."
    - Josiah Thomson

    July 08, 2020, 10:36:59 AM
    Reply #33
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    firefox


    I'm just asking, could being buried in snow for 3 months change the color of bruises so that they no longer look like bruises?
    The four bodies carry several bruises. But no bruise that explains the fractures.

    So the falling theory seems almost impossible.
    • Bruising occurs but doesn't exist for the fractures.
    • No broken limbs.
    • From memory two corpses demonstrate unusual throat mobility (Alex and Lyudmila).
    • I'm no expert but my understanding is that you would need a fall of six stories/60 feet.
    • In late Feb Tempalov estimated the snow depth to be 2-6m.
    • They were found under 3.5m.
    The evidence points to dying under the snow from crushing. Or the evidence is a fabrication and it was murder. Falling is as probable as aliens.

    No it does not.  You have no idea what caused their injuries, all you have is the injuries themselves, NO other evidences.  No way this small "ravine" could cause such severe injuries.  And I have no idea what caused the injuries ...
     

    July 08, 2020, 10:56:59 AM
    Reply #34
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    Medical examiner listed fall as a possible explanation for the fracturesor blast wave or a car impact. He's not favouring a fall, just including it in a list of possible high energy events. Quoting this is a very thin argument imo.   
    • No broken limbs.
    If you landed on your chest or head you wouldn't have broken limbsIt's possible for one person. But three? And how to explain Alexander?   
    • From memory two corpses demonstrate unusual throat mobility (Alex and Lyudmila).
    Ok
       
    • I'm no expert but my understanding is that you would need a fall of six stories/60 feet.
    No. If a 170 lb person fell 6 feet onto rocks it is possible to fracture ribs (see my previous post). This spring I fell while riding a skateboard in a concrete bowl. I fell from approximately 4 feet and the back of my head slammed into the concrete. Luckily I was wearing a helmet that absorbed the shock otherwise I would have cracked my skull. The helmet I was using cracked in 3 different places and is now unusable. Also, it happened so fast that I had not time to block the fall and had zero injuries to my hands, arms, or legs. Again, the medical examiner listed fall as a possible cause of injuries.But he specifically ruled out falling over as the cause. It needs a longer drop.    
    • In late Feb Tempalov estimated the snow depth to be 2-6m.
    ?
       
    • They were found under 3.5m.
    They were found almost 4 months later - it snowed and they were covered.No you're missing the point. Tempalov stated the depth of snow in the ravine as seen on 28th Feb to be 2-6m (i.e. it was full of snow too deep to be probed). So it is central to the falling theory that this 2-6m of snow all happened in the 4 weeks of Feb. As with all things with this theory it is possible but  improbable. [/q]The evidence points to dying under the snow from crushing. Or the evidence is a fabrication and it was murder. Falling is as probable as aliens.

    I can not find a single case where someone died of a snowcave collapse where the cause of death was anything but asphyxiation. It seems to be the opinion of the experts that they were not equipped to dig a snow cave, so the theory is that they exploited a natural feature carved by the wind etc and walled it up. This then explains why no asphyxiation (unless the pathologist missed it in 3 month old corpses of course). They were not in the den when they died. Falling is the most logical explanation for the injuries. The medical examiner listed falling as a possible cause of injury on Lyuda, Sasha, and Thibeaux-Brignolle.

    July 08, 2020, 11:04:11 AM
    Reply #35
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    I'm just asking, could being buried in snow for 3 months change the color of bruises so that they no longer look like bruises?
    The four bodies carry several bruises. But no bruise that explains the fractures.

    So the falling theory seems almost impossible.
    • Bruising occurs but doesn't exist for the fractures.
    • No broken limbs.
    • From memory two corpses demonstrate unusual throat mobility (Alex and Lyudmila).
    • I'm no expert but my understanding is that you would need a fall of six stories/60 feet.
    • In late Feb Tempalov estimated the snow depth to be 2-6m.
    • They were found under 3.5m.
    The evidence points to dying under the snow from crushing. Or the evidence is a fabrication and it was murder. Falling is as probable as aliens.

    No it does not.  You have no idea what caused their injuries, all you have is the injuries themselves, which are all high energy injuries with no relevant bruising across three bodies. NO other evidences.  No way this small "ravine" could cause such severe injuries.  Correct you need an external force, falling doesn't cut it. And I have no idea what caused the injuries ...


    July 08, 2020, 04:17:32 PM
    Reply #36
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    Tony



    • Medical examiner listed fall as a possible explanation for the fracturesor blast wave or a car impact. He's not favouring a fall, just including it in a list of possible high energy events. Quoting this is a very thin argument imo.
    • But he specifically ruled out falling over as the cause. It needs a longer drop.
       

    I give 6 feet because I think that is the minimum height to cause significant injuries. I believe that they either fell from a height higher than 6 feet or that they were carried by momentum (a stumble for example) which increased impact.

    Here are the exact quotes from Vozrozhdenny:

    Sasha

    "The above mentioned multiple fractures of Zolotaryov’s ribs with hemorrhaging into the pleural cavity were caused in vivo as an effect of a high-power impact to the chest of Zolotaryov at the moment of his fall, squeezing or throwing."

    Lyuda

    "The trauma was caused during life and is the result of high force impact with subsequent fall, throw or bruise to the chest of Dubinina."

    Thibeaux-Brignolle

    "The above-mentioned extensive comminuted fracture of the base and the vault of the cranium are of in vivo origin and are the result of a great force with the subsequent falling, hurling and concussion of Thibeaux-Brignolle."

    "Question: From what kind of force could Thibeaux-Brignolle have received such injury?

    Answer: In the conclusion, it’s shown the damage to Thibeaux-Brignolle’s head could have been the result of the throwing, fall or jettisoning of the body. I don’t believe these wounds could have been the result of Thibeaux-Brignolle simply falling from the level of his own height, i.e. falling and hitting his head. The extensive, depressed, multi-splintered (broken fornix and base of the skull) fracture could be the result of an impact of an automobile moving at high speed. This kind of trauma could have occurred if Thibeaux-Brignolle had been thrown and fallen and hit his head against rocks, ice, etc., by a gust of strong wind."

    Lyuda, Sasha

    "Question: How is it possible to explain the cause of the damage to Dubinina and Zolotaryov? Is it possible to combine them into one cause?

    Answer: I think the character of the injuries on Dubinina and Zolotaryov – a multiple fracture of the ribs – on Dubinina were bilateral and symmetrical, and on Zolotaryov were one-sided. Both had hemorrhaging into the cardiac muscle with hemorrhaging into the pleural cavity, which is evidence of them being alive [when injured] and is the result of the action of a large force, similar to the example used for Thibeaux-Brignolle. These injuries, especially appearing in such a way without any damage to the soft tissue of the chest, are very similar to the type of trauma that results from the shock wave of a bomb.
    "



    I think it's fair to note that Vozrozhdenny gave car crash as a possible explanation but I think it is safe to assume that he was likening the injuries to that of injuries sustained in a automobile collision and not the possibility that they were involved in a car crash.

    I think it's also noteworthy that they were similar to trauma that results from a bomb blast.

    In all, Vozrozhdenny gives 5 ways that they could have received the injuries:

    • Fall
    • Being thrown
    • Blast wave
    • Being crushed
    • Car Crash (which I think we can rule out)

    Here are photos from ravines in the area. It is likely that one of these is the actual ravine. Notice the steep slope on either side of some of the ravines.












    Knowing that they were likely found in one of these ravines, out of the 4 mentioned above, what is the most likely scenario?




    "If there exists a fact which can only be thought of as sinister. A fact which can only point to some sinister underpinning, you will never be able to think up all the non-sinister, perfectly valid explanations for that fact."
    - Josiah Thomson

    July 08, 2020, 04:27:13 PM
    Reply #37
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    Star man

    Case-Files Achievement Recipient
    A fall from between 3 to 4 metres is enough to cause the chest injuries.  But when you fall the injuries significantly depend on how you land, which means you might expect less consistent injuries.  When a conscious person falls they usually try to break their fall with their hands/feet and this leads to broken wrists and ankles in many cases. 

    It does seem unusual that Lyuda and Semyon suffered such similar injuries.  Also Thibo had a significant head injury but no other significant injuries.

    Regards

    Star man

    July 09, 2020, 02:28:21 AM
    Reply #38
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    A fall from between 3 to 4 metres is enough to cause the chest injuries.  But when you fall the injuries significantly depend on how you land, which means you might expect less consistent injuries.  When a conscious person falls they usually try to break their fall with their hands/feet and this leads to broken wrists and ankles in many cases. 
    .
    Hi there, I struggle with a fall of 4m causing a double fracture in the rib cage of a healthy young woman. Do you any evidence to support this?
    It does seem unusual that Lyuda and Semyon suffered such similar injuries.  Also Thibo had a significant head injury but no other significant injuries..
    A localised crushing force fits the bill exactly.

    Regards

    Star man




    July 09, 2020, 09:31:59 AM
    Reply #39
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5717375/.
    "Generally, the mortality rate is greater with falls from higher places compared with lower places.[5] The reported mortality rates of falls from ≥12 meters and ≥18 meters were 50% and 100%, respectively.[13] However, a survivor who fell from 19 stories (57 meters) has also been reported.[14] Liu et al[15] found that the mortality rate due to falls from >6 meters was 22.7% and while Velmohos et al[16] found that it was 9.6% for falls from >9 meters. In our series, the mortality rate from falls from >9 meters was 23.5%, which is compatible with the literature.
    So this seems to support the 6 stories = 60 feet = 20 meters theory. If four of you want to end it all by jumping make sure it's a drop >18m. If there's 7 of you and you want a 50% survival rate then choose 12m.

    I've personally witnessed a suicide that was a drop of 18 stories/60m. He lived for about 30 minutes similar to Semyon.

    Reading another publication it remarked that a common injury in longer drops is heart/aorta rupture due to the deceleration which from memory did not occur in the rav4. Lyudmila's heart was punctured by a broken rib but not relevant.

    Regards.
    « Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 10:00:41 AM by Nigel Evans »

    July 09, 2020, 09:53:11 AM
    Reply #40
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    Wrt lack of broken limbs.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22792820/."The mean height of the fall was 4.54 meters (range: 0.6-12 meters).""A total of 126 fractures occurred in 101 patients: 55 in the upper limbs, 50 in the lower limbs, 14 in the spine, and 7 in the pelvis. Associated injuries included head (n = 17), chest (n = 9) and abdominal injuries (n = 6).".


    So 105 broken limbs from 101 patients with an average drop of 4.5m... Says it all?

    July 09, 2020, 11:06:49 AM
    Reply #41
    Online

    Morski


    Wrt lack of broken limbs.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22792820/."The mean height of the fall was 4.54 meters (range: 0.6-12 meters).""A total of 126 fractures occurred in 101 patients: 55 in the upper limbs, 50 in the lower limbs, 14 in the spine, and 7 in the pelvis. Associated injuries included head (n = 17), chest (n = 9) and abdominal injuries (n = 6).".


    So 105 broken limbs from 101 patients with an average drop of 4.5m... Says it all?

    Hardly. Unless all those 101 patients got injured near Kholat Syakhl, so we can deduct a plausible conclusion, that falling is out of question.
    « Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 11:12:54 AM by Morski »

    July 09, 2020, 11:58:59 AM
    Reply #42
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    Star man

    Case-Files Achievement Recipient
    A fall from between 3 to 4 metres is enough to cause the chest injuries.  But when you fall the injuries significantly depend on how you land, which means you might expect less consistent injuries.  When a conscious person falls they usually try to break their fall with their hands/feet and this leads to broken wrists and ankles in many cases. 
    .
    Hi there, I struggle with a fall of 4m causing a double fracture in the rib cage of a healthy young woman. Do you any evidence to support this?
    It does seem unusual that Lyuda and Semyon suffered such similar injuries.  Also Thibo had a significant head injury but no other significant injuries..
    A localised crushing force fits the bill exactly.

    Regards

    Star man

    I did the analysis myself Nigel using the biomechanical properties of ribs and forced required to break a typical rib.  I did present it in the Low Yield nuke theory for a fall from a tree.

    Regards

    Star man

    July 09, 2020, 12:19:23 PM
    Reply #43
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    Wrt lack of broken limbs.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22792820/."The mean height of the fall was 4.54 meters (range: 0.6-12 meters).""A total of 126 fractures occurred in 101 patients: 55 in the upper limbs, 50 in the lower limbs, 14 in the spine, and 7 in the pelvis. Associated injuries included head (n = 17), chest (n = 9) and abdominal injuries (n = 6).".


    So 105 broken limbs from 101 patients with an average drop of 4.5m... Says it all?

    Hardly. Unless all those 101 patients got injured near Kholat Syakhl, so we can deduct a plausible conclusion, that falling is out of question.
    Hi Morski, what's the difference, 30cms of snow? Can't be 3.5m?



    July 09, 2020, 01:13:24 PM
    Reply #44
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    A fall from between 3 to 4 metres is enough to cause the chest injuries.  But when you fall the injuries significantly depend on how you land, which means you might expect less consistent injuries.  When a conscious person falls they usually try to break their fall with their hands/feet and this leads to broken wrists and ankles in many cases. 
    .
    Hi there, I struggle with a fall of 4m causing a double fracture in the rib cage of a healthy young woman. Do you any evidence to support this?
    It does seem unusual that Lyuda and Semyon suffered such similar injuries.  Also Thibo had a significant head injury but no other significant injuries..
    A localised crushing force fits the bill exactly.

    Regards

    Star man

    I did the analysis myself Nigel using the biomechanical properties of ribs and forced required to break a typical rib.  I did present it in the Low Yield nuke theory for a fall from a tree.

    Regards

    Star man
    How much force to snap the rib twice?

    July 09, 2020, 04:27:27 PM
    Reply #45
    Offline

    Star man

    Case-Files Achievement Recipient
    A fall from between 3 to 4 metres is enough to cause the chest injuries.  But when you fall the injuries significantly depend on how you land, which means you might expect less consistent injuries.  When a conscious person falls they usually try to break their fall with their hands/feet and this leads to broken wrists and ankles in many cases. 
    .
    Hi there, I struggle with a fall of 4m causing a double fracture in the rib cage of a healthy young woman. Do you any evidence to support this?
    It does seem unusual that Lyuda and Semyon suffered such similar injuries.  Also Thibo had a significant head injury but no other significant injuries..
    A localised crushing force fits the bill exactly.

    Regards

    Star man

    I did the analysis myself Nigel using the biomechanical properties of ribs and forced required to break a typical rib.  I did present it in the Low Yield nuke theory for a fall from a tree.

    Regards

    Star man
    How much force to snap the rib twice?

    It's a good question and one of the reasons I am inclined to think that the injuries were caused by a fast impact.  If I remember correctly a typical rib bone has a lateral breaking stress of about 50 mega pascals.  Combing that with a typical cross section of a rib gives a breaking force in the region of 250Kg.  Apparently bone is very strong and tough up towards its breaking stress at which point it yields considerably before breaking.  This means that any force that is applied slowly would eventually cause a break at the point where the breaking stress is exceeded first, relieving further stresses on other parts of the bone.  But a force applied rapidly could over stress the bone in multiple places before any single point yields and breaks, which could result in multiple fractures. 

    A not great analogy, but one that may help explain this is glass.  Glass is a super cooled liquid, which under the slow application of stress/force flows very slowly, but give it sharp fast shock and it behaves in a brittle manner and breaks into many pieces.

    The pathologists were correct when they said the injuries are typical of a car accident, falling or being thrown  IMO.

    Regards

    Star man

    July 09, 2020, 06:38:28 PM
    Reply #46
    Offline

    lucid-nonsense


    Nigel, if you think there is no place high enough from them to fall
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5717375/.
    "Generally, the mortality rate is greater with falls from higher places compared with lower places.[5] The reported mortality rates of falls from ≥12 meters and ≥18 meters were 50% and 100%, respectively.[13] However, a survivor who fell from 19 stories (57 meters) has also been reported.[14] Liu et al[15] found that the mortality rate due to falls from >6 meters was 22.7% and while Velmohos et al[16] found that it was 9.6% for falls from >9 meters. In our series, the mortality rate from falls from >9 meters was 23.5%, which is compatible with the literature.
    So this seems to support the 6 stories = 60 feet = 20 meters theory. If four of you want to end it all by jumping make sure it's a drop >18m. If there's 7 of you and you want a 50% survival rate then choose 12m.

    I've personally witnessed a suicide that was a drop of 18 stories/60m. He lived for about 30 minutes similar to Semyon.

    Reading another publication it remarked that a common injury in longer drops is heart/aorta rupture due to the deceleration which from memory did not occur in the rav4. Lyudmila's heart was punctured by a broken rib but not relevant.

    Regards.

    But those are survival rates with medical help, presumably. For people not already weakened by hypothermia.

    Also, if they had been trapped under the snow, they would have lived for 10 minutes max. At least Thibo would've died of asphyxiation, not hypothermia.

    July 10, 2020, 12:07:02 AM
    Reply #47
    Online

    Morski


    Wrt lack of broken limbs.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22792820/."The mean height of the fall was 4.54 meters (range: 0.6-12 meters).""A total of 126 fractures occurred in 101 patients: 55 in the upper limbs, 50 in the lower limbs, 14 in the spine, and 7 in the pelvis. Associated injuries included head (n = 17), chest (n = 9) and abdominal injuries (n = 6).".


    So 105 broken limbs from 101 patients with an average drop of 4.5m... Says it all?

    Hardly. Unless all those 101 patients got injured near Kholat Syakhl, so we can deduct a plausible conclusion, that falling is out of question.
    Hi Morski, what's the difference, 30cms of snow? Can't be 3.5m?

    Hi, Nigel.
    My point is, that you are using data for skeletal injuries pretty much in general. According to this article the landing surface consisted mainly of
    concrete (n=63, 62.3%), ground (n=28, 27.7%) and wooden decks (n=10, 9.9%), plus the 101 patients are a mixture of children, adults and elderly people, which is a huge variety in bone density and strength. And the main period for the research is summer to monsoon months. It is not even in the winter, not to mention the different surface.

    I think, that in order to refute falling as cause for the injuries, we need to consider not only height, but the season and the specifics of the terrain around Kholat Syakhl, which unfortunately very few of us in the forum know in detail. 

    July 10, 2020, 12:22:28 AM
    Reply #48
    Offline

    Monika




    Autopsies for Sasha, Dubinina, and Thibeaux-Brignolle all list fall as a possible explanation for the injuries. Kolevatov's does not. I don't think the medical examiner would have listed fall as a possible cause of injury if it wasn't a possibility. The injuries would have happened during a single fall. For example, it's possible that Dubinina's fractured ribs, bruise to the quadricep, and nose and throat damage happened due to a fall. The only exception would be in the case of Sasha when, after

    Like I said, I am not discounting a fall as a cause of death but looking at all of them is it likely? Saying one person died because of a freak accident its a possibility, but that's looking at just one, now having 4 people die from 4 similar but independent freak accidents at the same time under the same circumstance seems a little more unlikely. Looking individually it very well could have been a fall that caused the injuries to the back/side of all 4 people's heads, a fall could have caused the injuries to Dubinina and Zolotaryov but when you step back and look at all the injuries and more importantly what is missing(arm injuries, shoulder injuries, leg injuries etc...). Plus what are the chances they all fell on the same rock or they all fell on 4 rocks that just happened to be at the right place to cause injuries to the back of the head of all the individuals rather than other parts of their bodies. All received the same type of head injuries, to me it indicates that 4 people who were trained in the same manner injured those people in the same way rather than all 4 happening to fall and receive those injuries.

    Sorry about the previous fragmented response. Not sure what happened there.

    I think there is some confusion as to the events with the fall - I'll try and clarify:

    After Yuri D. and Yuri K. passed at the cedar, the remaining seven took clothing, left the fire and cedar, and traveled deeper into the forest. In complete dark, without the moon or flashlight, they were probably in two groups walking very close or holding on to each other. By this point they were all in the beginning or mid stages of hypothermia and reaction time would have been limited. Stumbling onto the ravine, it's possible that they heard water, but they would not have been able to see the ravine. There are a hundred different scenarios for how they could have fallen but I believe they stumbled in the deep snow or fell through snow (snow bridge) and, holding onto each other, 3 of them fell onto a number of large rocks (imaging falling down a flight of stairs on to rocks in the dark). They didn't fall onto a single rock and the rocks weren't in the "right place" - it was just a bunch of rocks that lined the entire bed of the ravine. It would have happened quickly and with hypothermia setting in, they probably didn't realize what had happened and were unable to block the fall or protect themselves. Sasha fell and landed on his chest breaking his ribs and cutting the top of his head. Thibeux-Brignolle landed on his head knocking him unconscious. Lyuda landed breaking her ribs and received bruising on her quadricep and damage to her face. All of these injuries could occur with an uninterrupted fall onto large rocks. A 170 lb person falling 6 feet would generate around 4,800 newtons of force which would be more than enough to break ribs. This is all arm-chair science but we've already concluded that the medical examiner stated a fall as a possibility.

    After they fell, the remaining 3 (or four) made their way into the ravine and, hoping to save their friends and themselves, began to build the den into a snow drift on the banks of the ravine, returning to the cedar to retrieve more clothing and cut fir branches for the bed. The 3 that fell remained on the rocks where they were found months later. The building of the den would have been done in absolute darkness and it probably took a substantial amount of effort. Running out of options, the remaining three (Igor, Zina, and Rustem) abandoned the ravine and attempted a return to the tent. Over the next 3 weeks its possible that the water level in the ravine decreased and froze allowing snow to accumulate and cover the rocks and hikers. As far as I know there is no mention of a search in the area of the ravine during the initial stages of the investigation.

    The outlier is Kolevatov. I don't know what his circumstances would have been. It's possible that after the fire the 3 attempted a return to the tent and the other four walked into the forest with all but Kolevatov falling into the ravine. Kolevatov alone constructed the den and the bed and then gave up. But I don't see him being able to construct the bed and den alone. It's also possible that he fell as well which would account for his neck injury.

    There are also injuries to Sasha's scapula that were found later that are hard to account for.

    Yes, it's unusual that 3 (or 4) people would all fall at the same time and incur such extreme injuries but it is the most likely scenario. Even if they were forced from the tent by a third party and left to fend for themselves I think it is still a more likely scenario for the injuries. Finding a small group of people in a ravine in complete darkness in a large, forested area with only a flashlight in -15 F weather and in snow a mile from the tent would have been near impossible at best.

    If you happened upon someone lying on top of rocks at the bottom of a small ravine with injuries what would be the mostly likely cause of injury?

    Hello,

    The problem with your theory is as follows.
    The den had to be built before trio from quarteto was injured. Four seats from pieces of clothing and branches were put inside the den. This means that they had to be uninjured, otherwise they could not be there in a sitting position. Rather, it seems to me that after building the den, they went out of the den, maybe to pee, or they were interrupted by something, or they wanted to look at something... and there something terrified happened.

    July 10, 2020, 03:29:35 AM
    Reply #49
    Online

    Nigel Evans



    It's a good question and one of the reasons I am inclined to think that the injuries were caused by a fast impact.  If I remember correctly a typical rib bone has a lateral breaking stress of about 50 mega pascals.  Combing that with a typical cross section of a rib gives a breaking force in the region of 250Kg.  Apparently bone is very strong and tough up towards its breaking stress at which point it yields considerably before breaking.  This means that any force that is applied slowly would eventually cause a break at the point where the breaking stress is exceeded first, relieving further stresses on other parts of the bone.  But a force applied rapidly could over stress the bone in multiple places before any single point yields and breaks, which could result in multiple fractures. 

    A not great analogy, but one that may help explain this is glass.  Glass is a super cooled liquid, which under the slow application of stress/force flows very slowly, but give it sharp fast shock and it behaves in a brittle manner and breaks into many pieces.

    The pathologists were correct when they said the injuries are typical of a car accident, falling or being thrown  IMO.

    Regards

    Star man
    Yes  i get the glass analogy. Her rib cage "shattered".
    .
    A car accident, falling, being thrown or a blast wave.
    « Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 03:42:25 AM by Nigel Evans »

    July 10, 2020, 03:40:28 AM
    Reply #50
    Online

    Nigel Evans




    Hi, Nigel.
    My point is, that you are using data for skeletal injuries pretty much in general. According to this article the landing surface consisted mainly of
    concrete (n=63, 62.3%), ground (n=28, 27.7%) and wooden decks (n=10, 9.9%), plus the 101 patients are a mixture of children, adults and elderly people, which is a huge variety in bone density and strength. And the main period for the research is summer to monsoon months. It is not even in the winter, not to mention the different surface.

    I think, that in order to refute falling as cause for the injuries, we need to consider not only height, but the season and the specifics of the terrain around Kholat Syakhl, which unfortunately very few of us in the forum know in detail.
    I appreciate the data set isn't perfect but i think it's good enough to make the point.
    To recap, the falling theory needs :-
    • A fall from sufficient height to create the injuries which is very hard to explain unless they take turns diving off the top of the cedar.
    • A freak result that there are no broken limbs on three bodies or ruptured heart/aorta.
    • A landing that gives no relevant bruising again on three bodies.
    • Snow doesn't reach the ravine for the whole winter until after Feb2, when it then fills with 2 to 6 meters as estimated by Tempalov @ 28/02/59.

    July 10, 2020, 03:47:57 AM
    Reply #51
    Online

    sparrow


    Hello everyone.

    Has anyone ever wondered why none of the hikers had bruises on the bottoms of their feet? The ground was quite rocky, they walked about a mile and it was supposedly quite dark so they would not have been able to see where they were putting their feet.  Frostbite was mentioned but no scratches,cuts or bruises.

    July 10, 2020, 05:57:11 AM
    Reply #52
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    Nigel, if you think there is no place high enough from them to fall
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5717375/.
    "Generally, the mortality rate is greater with falls from higher places compared with lower places.[5] The reported mortality rates of falls from ≥12 meters and ≥18 meters were 50% and 100%, respectively.[13] However, a survivor who fell from 19 stories (57 meters) has also been reported.[14] Liu et al[15] found that the mortality rate due to falls from >6 meters was 22.7% and while Velmohos et al[16] found that it was 9.6% for falls from >9 meters. In our series, the mortality rate from falls from >9 meters was 23.5%, which is compatible with the literature.
    So this seems to support the 6 stories = 60 feet = 20 meters theory. If four of you want to end it all by jumping make sure it's a drop >18m. If there's 7 of you and you want a 50% survival rate then choose 12m.

    I've personally witnessed a suicide that was a drop of 18 stories/60m. He lived for about 30 minutes similar to Semyon.

    Reading another publication it remarked that a common injury in longer drops is heart/aorta rupture due to the deceleration which from memory did not occur in the rav4. Lyudmila's heart was punctured by a broken rib but not relevant.

    Regards.

    But those are survival rates with medical help, presumably. For people not already weakened by hypothermia.

    Also, if they had been trapped under the snow, they would have lived for 10 minutes max. At least Thibo would've died of asphyxiation, not hypothermia.
    Well Lyudmila had a pierced heart and lived for just minutes so i don't think she could have survived anywhere.
    Semyon died of internal bleeding within 20-30 minutes so his chances with medical help would have been slim.
    Nicolai's skull had a basal fracture as well as the compound side fracture so much so that the shape of his head was deformed. So survival could be say 50/50 with long term issues.
    Wrt the rav4, people don't discuss Rustem but he should imo be included. He had very similar injuries - head trauma and internal bleeding which probably was the cause of death. So it's plausible that he was a fifth member of this event and managed to stagger away. Ditto Zinaida who had a bleeding bruise at her waist. Plus her face of course.

    July 10, 2020, 06:00:24 AM
    Reply #53
    Online

    Nigel Evans


    Hello everyone.

    Has anyone ever wondered why none of the hikers had bruises on the bottoms of their feet? The ground was quite rocky, they walked about a mile and it was supposedly quite dark so they would not have been able to see where they were putting their feet.  Frostbite was mentioned but no scratches,cuts or bruises.

    Igor had scratches around his ankles. His bladder volume strongly indicates hypothermia as cause of death. So stumbling through snow covered undergrowth before succumbing is a good explanation. Or they're rope marks.

    But you make a good point.
    « Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 06:12:07 AM by Nigel Evans »

    July 10, 2020, 10:20:34 AM
    Reply #54
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    MDGross


    Shock waves from a large blast can break ribs and fracture skulls without bruising. They could damage tissue in the abdomen, which could explain Igor vomiting blood. But WAB will scold me and rightfully so for not providing any scientific proof. So only speculation.
    By the way, I spoke with a man yesterday about the Dyatlov mystery. Turns out his father worked in military intelligence from WWII until 1967, focusing on the Soviet Union after the war. He told me that were his father presented with the Dyatlov case, he would immediately say that espionage was at the center of it. For what that's worth.

    July 10, 2020, 12:32:49 PM
    Reply #55
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    Tony



    Hello,

    The problem with your theory is as follows.
    The den had to be built before trio from quarteto was injured. Four seats from pieces of clothing and branches were put inside the den. This means that they had to be uninjured, otherwise they could not be there in a sitting position. Rather, it seems to me that after building the den, they went out of the den, maybe to pee, or they were interrupted by something, or they wanted to look at something... and there something terrified happened.

    There are two scenarios for the den and bed being built:

    A: The group split at the cedar after Yuri D. and Yuri K. died. Igor, Zina, and Rustem left and tried returning to the tent. The other four took clothes from Yuri D. and Yuri K. and traveled further into the forest where Lyuda, Sasha, and Thibeaux-Brignolle fell into the ravine onto rocks and were mortally wounded. Kolevatov did not fall and, in an attempt to save himself and the others, constructed the den from clothing and fir branches that he cut near the cedar. Kolevatov eventually gave up due to exhaustion and hypothermia and laid down next to his friends where he later died. In this scenario, I don't know how to explain the neck deformation of Kolevatov. It's possible that he too later fell while constructing the den and this added to his already precarious situation.

    B: After Yuri D. and Yuri K. died, the remaining 7 took clothing from the two hikers and traveled further into the forest. Lyuda, Sasha, and Thibeaux-Brignolle (and possibly Kolevatov) fell into the ravine and were mortally wounded. Igor, Zina, and Rustem built the den from clothing from Yuri D. and Yuri K. and branches they cut from small fir trees near the cedar. This might explain why they were not wearing additional clothing from Yuri D. and Yuri K. as they used their additional clothing to construct the den. This also might explain why they had so many hand injuries as opposed to the others. After some time and fearing their friends had died, the remaining 3 gave up on the den and attempted a return to the tent (why is anybody's guess). This also might explain why they didn't get very far when returning as all three were probably in the later stages of hypothermia as they began their ascent to the tent.

    Out of the 2 scenarios I think the second is the most plausible as I don't believe Kolevatov alone could have constructed the den and bed. Lyuda, Sasha, and Thibeaux-Brignolle (and possibly Kolevatov) had no part in building the den and bed as they had already sustained their injuries and probably didn't move too far from where they had been injured.
    « Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 01:58:33 PM by Tony »
    "If there exists a fact which can only be thought of as sinister. A fact which can only point to some sinister underpinning, you will never be able to think up all the non-sinister, perfectly valid explanations for that fact."
    - Josiah Thomson

    July 10, 2020, 12:42:31 PM
    Reply #56
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    lucid-nonsense


    Nigel, if you think there is no place high enough from them to fall
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5717375/.
    "Generally, the mortality rate is greater with falls from higher places compared with lower places.[5] The reported mortality rates of falls from ≥12 meters and ≥18 meters were 50% and 100%, respectively.[13] However, a survivor who fell from 19 stories (57 meters) has also been reported.[14] Liu et al[15] found that the mortality rate due to falls from >6 meters was 22.7% and while Velmohos et al[16] found that it was 9.6% for falls from >9 meters. In our series, the mortality rate from falls from >9 meters was 23.5%, which is compatible with the literature.
    So this seems to support the 6 stories = 60 feet = 20 meters theory. If four of you want to end it all by jumping make sure it's a drop >18m. If there's 7 of you and you want a 50% survival rate then choose 12m.

    I've personally witnessed a suicide that was a drop of 18 stories/60m. He lived for about 30 minutes similar to Semyon.

    Reading another publication it remarked that a common injury in longer drops is heart/aorta rupture due to the deceleration which from memory did not occur in the rav4. Lyudmila's heart was punctured by a broken rib but not relevant.

    Regards.

    But those are survival rates with medical help, presumably. For people not already weakened by hypothermia.

    Also, if they had been trapped under the snow, they would have lived for 10 minutes max. At least Thibo would've died of asphyxiation, not hypothermia.
    Well Lyudmila had a pierced heart and lived for just minutes so i don't think she could have survived anywhere.
    Semyon died of internal bleeding within 20-30 minutes so his chances with medical help would have been slim.
    Nicolai's skull had a basal fracture as well as the compound side fracture so much so that the shape of his head was deformed. So survival could be say 50/50 with long term issues.
    Wrt the rav4, people don't discuss Rustem but he should imo be included. He had very similar injuries - head trauma and internal bleeding which probably was the cause of death. So it's plausible that he was a fifth member of this event and managed to stagger away. Ditto Zinaida who had a bleeding bruise at her waist. Plus her face of course.

    My point was that if enough snow had fallen on them to cause these injuries, they would've been trapped under the snow and died of asphyxiation.

    July 10, 2020, 01:38:39 PM
    Reply #57
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    Tony




    Hi, Nigel.
    My point is, that you are using data for skeletal injuries pretty much in general. According to this article the landing surface consisted mainly of
    concrete (n=63, 62.3%), ground (n=28, 27.7%) and wooden decks (n=10, 9.9%), plus the 101 patients are a mixture of children, adults and elderly people, which is a huge variety in bone density and strength. And the main period for the research is summer to monsoon months. It is not even in the winter, not to mention the different surface.

    I think, that in order to refute falling as cause for the injuries, we need to consider not only height, but the season and the specifics of the terrain around Kholat Syakhl, which unfortunately very few of us in the forum know in detail.
    I appreciate the data set isn't perfect but i think it's good enough to make the point.
    To recap, the falling theory needs :-
    • A fall from sufficient height to create the injuries which is very hard to explain unless they take turns diving off the top of the cedar.
    • A freak result that there are no broken limbs on three bodies or ruptured heart/aorta.
    • A landing that gives no relevant bruising again on three bodies.
    • Snow doesn't reach the ravine for the whole winter until after Feb2, when it then fills with 2 to 6 meters as estimated by Tempalov @ 28/02/59.

    • A fall from sufficient height to create the injuries which is very hard to explain unless they take turns diving off the top of the cedar.
    As pointed out by Star Man it is entirely possible to receive significant injuries from as little as 3 meters (if falling on a hard surface i.e. concrete, rock, etc.)
       
    • A freak result that there are no broken limbs on three bodies or ruptured heart/aorta.
    By that time it's almost certain that all of the group were in some stage of hypothermia. If this is the case, their reaction time would have been significantly hampered. Couple that with the fact that they could not see due to lack of moonlight and it's understandable that they probably wouldn't have even reacted to a fall. They probably didn't even realize they had fallen. If, by chance, the main body absorbed the majority of the impact there would not be any injury to limbs.
       
    • A landing that gives no relevant bruising again on three bodies.
    The medical examiner stated fall as a possibility. If he had determined that a fall would have 100% resulted in bruising, he wouldn't have stated fall as a possibility.
       
    • Snow doesn't reach the ravine for the whole winter until after Feb2, when it then fills with 2 to 6 meters as estimated by Tempalov @ 28/02/59.
    Yes. In the video I posted above, it shows a few ravines where the ground is exposed. It is also possible to hear running water in parts of the video. The video was taken in March of 2013. If there is running water in the ravine, snow will not accumulate or, it will form a bridge between the two sides of the ravine but is hollow underneath and water continues to flow. Ski resorts will often block off areas around ravines with flowing water because skiers can easily fall through the snow and injure themselves. As winter progressed the water volume decreases and the stream either stops or it freezes and snow will begin to accumulate. In the mountains near where I live, the resorts have sometimes had a meter of snow in a single day and night.
    [/list]

    For what it's worth, below is a compilation video of skateboard falls. There are several falls by the same individual, but the one at :43 is significant. Not sure exactly how high, but it looks as though it could be around 3 meters. In the fall he sustained head injury, ruptured spleen, internal bleeding. Interesting that even though he partially landed on his arm he had no limb injuries. It's easy to see how much more the injuries would have been if he landed on a large rock.

    [viewer discretion]

    https://youtu.be/kBHHE-sKGEY?t=43

    Although he's skateboarding he isn't going that much faster than a brisk walk. I think there's this idea that you have to fall from an incredible height to sustain significant injuries when that is not necessarily true.

    I'm not saying that 100% they fell. Only that a fall is the most logical scenario given the fact that they were found at the bottom of a ravine (in an area where a majority of the ravines have large rocks) with injuries that the medical examiner listed as possibly occurring due to a fall.
    "If there exists a fact which can only be thought of as sinister. A fact which can only point to some sinister underpinning, you will never be able to think up all the non-sinister, perfectly valid explanations for that fact."
    - Josiah Thomson

    July 10, 2020, 02:30:40 PM
    Reply #58
    Offline

    WAB



    I'm just asking, could being buried in snow for 3 months change the color of bruises so that they no longer look like bruises?
    The four bodies carry several bruises. But no bruise that explains the fractures.

    So the falling theory seems almost impossible.
    • Bruising occurs but doesn't exist for the fractures.
    • No broken limbs.
    • From memory two corpses demonstrate unusual throat mobility (Alex and Lyudmila).
    • I'm no expert but my understanding is that you would need a fall of six stories/60 feet.
    • In late Feb Tempalov estimated the snow depth to be 2-6m.
    • They were found under 3.5m.
    The evidence points to dying under the snow from crushing. Or the evidence is a fabrication and it was murder. Falling is as probable as aliens.

    No it does not.  You have no idea what caused their injuries, all you have is the injuries themselves, which are all high energy injuries with no relevant bruising across three bodies.

    Let's be clear: you have no idea. It may not apply to others. So you shouldn't generalize about others.
    What you emphasized doesn't mean anything. It exists in many cases. Look at the statistics. Not selectively, but whole, in large array.

    NO other evidences. 

    You have strange understanding of evidence. If you don't know them, then they don't exist?

    No way this small "ravine" could cause such severe injuries. 

    Absolutely. Only you're looking for the cause of your injuries in the wrong place. It's somewhere else and very close to here. This is your traditional mistake.
    You're the only one who doesn't know the area exactly, so you deny it for no reason at all.

    Correct you need an external force,  

    External forces can be very different. For example, the force of gravity is also is external force. And what could be objected to here?

    falling doesn't cut it.  

    Where'd you get that from? Or it is dogmatic religious belief for you?
    A blow from fall may well be the cause of such injuries. The impact itself is very complex phenomenon in the perception of some people. But there's nothing special about it. All processes are subject to the law of movement impulse conservation, which is expressed by the formula (this I give in the simplest case, get into "high spheres" in conversation with you I do not risk, it is useless):
    M*(V1 - M2) = F*(t1 - t2), where such parameters are specified:
    M – it is the mass that moves,
    V1 - it is initial speed (before impact),
    V2- it is final speed (after impact),
    F - it is force value, during time (t1 - t2),
    t1 -  it is the starting point of impact time,
    t2 – it is the final point of impact time,
    thus, if there is complete stop, V2 is the final speed (after impact) = 0.
    The time interval (t1 - t2) is very small, the F value can be very large. Of course, this is true if the mass M does not change.
    M*(V1 - M2) = F*(t1 - t2), where these are indicated Let's see what this force will be for the Tibo case. In the case of simple fall from the height of his own height (174 cm) to stone that lies on the ground and has the size of 2 cm x 3.5 cm in the original contact part – it is the shard that is indicated in the act of the doctor, and which lies on the body of the brain. That is to say, it is penetrating breakdown of the temporal part of the head.
    velocity V1 = sqrt(2*g*h),
    Where it exists:
     Sqrt - square root
    g - free fall acceleration
    h - height of growth Tibo, minus 7 cm (this is the distance from the top of the skull to the temporal area in the sagittal plane).
    So, in this case, the velocity of V1 will be equal to 5.72 m/s. Since V2 = 0 (the stone, together with the ground, does not move in this closed system, and the mass of the head is approximately equal to 5 kg), even for process lasting 10 mS (0.01 seconds), the force of bone destruction will be equal to 2862 Newton or ~ 300 kGs (kilogram of force). But this is true for the whole head area in the sagittal plane (it fell this side, which is equal to the area ~ 0.38 square meters). Since the through-pass of the temporal part of the head was in the area of 2 cm x 3.5 cm = 0.007 square meters, the pressure on this part of the head will be as much as on the whole head. If the virtual pressure "for the whole head" can be calculated as 2862 N / 0.38 square meters = 7531 Ra, then due to the redistribution (concentration!) of the pressure it will be in 0.38 / 0.007 = 54.28 times more. And it will be 155365 Pa or 155 kPa, which is more than 5 times the strength of this part of the skull, which was studied in the works of Professor Alexander Gromov and Sergei Korsakov. We worked on the development of head protection equipment for aircraft and helicopter pilots, so these characteristics we studied well. We have created the theory of head injuries evaluation, as well as the head model working on impact (patent : SU 841022 A1 by 23.06.1981). Therefore all this is not only theoretical reasoning, but also confirmed by practical works of high scientific level.
    All digits are taken from the handbooks on ergonomics and statistics provided at international conferences on aviation and space ergonomics.
    Such calculations can be made by any person with an education equal to that of regular school, who studied in the USSR. I do not know how in England, but we have any student of this level can do it, if he is not behind in learning and wants achieve something. There would be desire understand this in detail. Of course, there are students in any country who do not study well because they do not make much effort to do so, but I would not like think that you relate to such people.
    Thus, I want to say that it is possible get all the injuries that are described in the group of woodpeckers in natural way, and it does not require anything beyond the natural. You just need know everything well.
    It doesn't require high altitude, and if the impact process (very fast braking against the barrier) is even shorter (if the speed is higher), then there will be inordinate local loads.
    Do not consider something that was done too carelessly and amateurishly, it will give the wrong result.

    And I have no idea what caused the injuries ...

    But you're on 200% right about that.  grin1

    July 10, 2020, 02:37:35 PM
    Reply #59
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    WAB



    • Medical examiner listed fall as a possible explanation for the fracturesor blast wave or a car impact. He's not favouring a fall, just including it in a list of possible high energy events. Quoting this is a very thin argument imo.
    • But he specifically ruled out falling over as the cause. It needs a longer drop.
       

    I give 6 feet because I think that is the minimum height to cause significant injuries. I believe that they either fell from a height higher than 6 feet or that they were carried by momentum (a stumble for example) which increased impact.

    Here are the exact quotes from Vozrozhdenny:

    Sasha

    "The above mentioned multiple fractures of Zolotaryov’s ribs with hemorrhaging into the pleural cavity were caused in vivo as an effect of a high-power impact to the chest of Zolotaryov at the moment of his fall, squeezing or throwing."

    Lyuda

    "The trauma was caused during life and is the result of high force impact with subsequent fall, throw or bruise to the chest of Dubinina."

    Thibeaux-Brignolle

    "The above-mentioned extensive comminuted fracture of the base and the vault of the cranium are of in vivo origin and are the result of a great force with the subsequent falling, hurling and concussion of Thibeaux-Brignolle."

    "Question: From what kind of force could Thibeaux-Brignolle have received such injury?

    Answer: In the conclusion, it’s shown the damage to Thibeaux-Brignolle’s head could have been the result of the throwing, fall or jettisoning of the body. I don’t believe these wounds could have been the result of Thibeaux-Brignolle simply falling from the level of his own height, i.e. falling and hitting his head. The extensive, depressed, multi-splintered (broken fornix and base of the skull) fracture could be the result of an impact of an automobile moving at high speed. This kind of trauma could have occurred if Thibeaux-Brignolle had been thrown and fallen and hit his head against rocks, ice, etc., by a gust of strong wind."

    Lyuda, Sasha

    "Question: How is it possible to explain the cause of the damage to Dubinina and Zolotaryov? Is it possible to combine them into one cause?

    Answer: I think the character of the injuries on Dubinina and Zolotaryov – a multiple fracture of the ribs – on Dubinina were bilateral and symmetrical, and on Zolotaryov were one-sided. Both had hemorrhaging into the cardiac muscle with hemorrhaging into the pleural cavity, which is evidence of them being alive [when injured] and is the result of the action of a large force, similar to the example used for Thibeaux-Brignolle. These injuries, especially appearing in such a way without any damage to the soft tissue of the chest, are very similar to the type of trauma that results from the shock wave of a bomb.
    "



    I think it's fair to note that Vozrozhdenny gave car crash as a possible explanation but I think it is safe to assume that he was likening the injuries to that of injuries sustained in a automobile collision and not the possibility that they were involved in a car crash.

    I think it's also noteworthy that they were similar to trauma that results from a bomb blast.


    In all, Vozrozhdenny gives 5 ways that they could have received the injuries:

    • Fall
    • Being thrown
    • Blast wave
    • Being crushed
    • Car Crash (which I think we can rule out)

    Here are photos from ravines in the area. It is likely that one of these is the actual ravine. Notice the steep slope on either side of some of the ravines.












    Knowing that they were likely found in one of these ravines, out of the 4 mentioned above, what is the most likely scenario?


    Dear Tony !
    You are absolutely right about say (look my mark text) everything, but give the wrong pictures where they could have gotten chest injuries.
    That place is very close to those places that exist in your photo. The distance is about 40...50 meters. Here's a photo of Yuri Yudin standing on the top of that slope (Yuri Yudin is in circle):
     
    .
    The height of this slope is about 6 ... 8 meters, steepness is at least 40 degrees. The nature of the bottom is exactly the same as in the photo you brought.