What's the state of play?

[Nigel Evans]

What's your current best guess as to the cause of the DPI?
For me it's the one true fireorb theory, maybe with a sprinkling of rocket fuel...

[Ziljoe]

Good question. Nigel.

For me I was Avalanche. Never ruled out anything no matter how far out it was..

At the moment I'm all for Wolverine. Igors work seems healthy and good arguments. Not 100% but close to it.

I've yet to get my hands on teddy's work so can't comment. But I have a lot of respect for her and I'm sure it will thorough.

The rocket fule may cross over in bits to the toxins in the potential Wolverine. Ie chemicals.

I'm interested in your thoughts, some I may have missed. Just because there's so many threads. I try to look at all of them.

What's your fireorb/rocket fuel theory/thoughts. I am genuinely interested.

[Nigel Evans]

Good question. Nigel.

For me I was Avalanche. Never ruled out anything no matter how far out it was..

At the moment I'm all for Wolverine. Igors work seems healthy and good arguments. Not 100% but close to it.

I've yet to get my hands on teddy's work so can't comment. But I have a lot of respect for her and I'm sure it will thorough.

The rocket fule may cross over in bits to the toxins in the potential Wolverine. Ie chemicals.

I'm interested in your thoughts, some I may have missed. Just because there's so many threads. I try to look at all of them.

What's your fireorb/rocket fuel theory/thoughts. I am genuinely interested.

Ah big question i'll answer tomorrow.

[Ziljoe]

Thanks NigeI , look forward to it. 

[KFinn]

What's your current best guess as to the cause of the DPI?
For me it's the one true fireorb theory, maybe with a sprinkling of rocket fuel...

Do we have to chose just one?  :)

I honestly am just enjoying learning each of the theories.  I have thought so many times that I knew what happened and each time, I've talked myself into another theory, lol.  I'm just going to continue putting theories on my plausibility scale and enjoy the thoughtful, insightful discussions with you all!

[Ziljoe]

What's your current best guess as to the cause of the DPI?
For me it's the one true fireorb theory, maybe with a sprinkling of rocket fuel...

Do we have to chose just one?  :)

I honestly am just enjoying learning each of the theories.  I have thought so many times that I knew what happened and each time, I've talked myself into another theory, lol.  I'm just going to continue putting theories on my plausibility scale and enjoy the thoughtful, insightful discussions with you all!

Here here. . Let's just enjoy the roller coaster. I have to read Teddy's account. Thats important to me as she has done so much work. I would guess she's seen every explanation going . But I respect everyone's search. Im looking forward to Nigel's too.

[sarapuk]

What's your current best guess as to the cause of the DPI?
For me it's the one true fireorb theory, maybe with a sprinkling of rocket fuel...

For me nothing as changed in 2 years. Ive learned a lot but its the same old story with the Dyatlov Case. Lack of Evidence and missing Evidence. We can still speculate till the Cows come home.

[Nigel Evans]

For Ziljoe.
For me the Mansi legend is a key element, suggesting that there is a natural electrical phenomena that can repeat. Normally this repetition is unseen due to the remoteness of the region but rarely people are killed by it. A clue could be in this photo :-


 
Notice in the distance there has been what seems to be a snow slide. Now you could explain this as spring thaw (the photo was probably taken in April/May) but notice how devoid of snow the exposed rock is, as if the snow slid because the rock warmed up and only in that location.
 
Now wrt the DPI, imo there are signs of a "warm mountain" that night :-
 

• Rustem was found in an ice bed which could be due to lying in a stream.
• the footsteps are heavily splayed out sideways suggesting to me wet snow bordering on slush.
• the "firn snow" on a tent on the north eastern slope of a siberian mountain in Feb.
• the sastrugi around the tent forcing the rescue team to dismount could suggest wind carved wet snow.
• the photo of something scooping out a line of snow (like a man limping) doesn't suggest -20C snow to me but much softer snow. Ditto the depth and crispness of the footstep next to it.

N.B. here in the south UK we definitely do not see the sub polar conditions of the Urals but what we do see is wet snow and these footstep photos suggest to me wet snow that has then refrozen to last three weeks in high winds.
 N.B. meltwater would find it's way into the ravine stream possibly resulting in a large slab slide which would easily explain the ravine injuries.
 
This electrical phenomena could include lightning and ball lightning resulting in burnt people, trees and strange photos. I would link the decision to camp on the ridge with them finding a  camera on tripod and Semyon's boast that he would return famous. For me it all fits that the pressure to make up lost time with certain individuals being keen to photograph "lights" and the high winds preventing an evening ascent tipped the balance into camping up there rather than the forest. In my albeit limited experience i think it was doable, with a stove full of wood to warm things up in the morning, thaw out the boots etc. Worst case the forest was only 10 minutes away on skis.

[Nigel Evans]

Btw wouldn't a wolverine find food in the tent and hang around long enough to leave poop?

[Ziljoe]

That is a photo I have not seen or at least never paid attention to. Very interesting and I can't think of a natural explanation for it.

.Rustem was found in an ice bed which could be due to lying in a stream.

Maybe. Although he might have been burrowing himself , although if I remember correctly there was a substantial amount of ice under him.

.the footsteps are heavily splayed out sideways suggesting to me wet snow bordering on slush.

I'm not sure about this. Could be.


.the "firn snow" on a tent on the north eastern slope of a siberian mountain in Feb.

Not sure of the context of translation from russian for firn snow. As I understand it ,firn snow is snow that lasts all year. I thought it was hard snow over the tent.


.the sastrugi around the tent forcing the rescue team to dismount could suggest wind carved wet snow.

I thought sastrugi snow was from the very nature of hard dry snow behaving like sand by the wind. Sort of like sand blasting.


.the photo of something scooping out a line of snow (like a man limping) doesn't suggest -20C snow to me but much softer snow. Ditto the depth and crispness of the footstep next to it.

I am intrigued by the crispness of that footstep and would have thought some snow would have filled it. Although I have no idea if they were photographing the footstep (could be searchers ) or the long indentation or maybe both. 

Snow in the north of UK can go frozen or slush quite quickly. In 2009 we had huge snow fall at sea level. It stayed for over four weeks. The snow that had been snow ploughed on to the pavement was still 2 feet deep. Rock hard and couldn't be walked on. Most snow I've seen.

I have been to Norway and seen the same and experienced crosscountry sling. It can be softer in the trees but harder on the lakes.

[Ziljoe]

Btw wouldn't a wolverine find food in the tent and hang around long enough to leave poop?

 Igor wrote about this also. If the Wolverine sprayed the chemical weapon. She would go away and leave  the area. Its sprays only under certain stressful conditions. Again, as I understand it , it has another spray or gland for marking food or territory, Nothing would eat the food sprayed with the defensive chemical weapon. ( I don't now how to describe it better) . Its had a confrontation , got a fright and decided to move on.

[MDGross]

It helps me to organize the various theories into three broad categories:

RATIONAL – Fleeing suddenly without coats or boots was a rational act. The group felt their lives were in immediate danger. Scenarios I favor: snow slab (either real or what the group thought was real); ball lightning with fiery balls rolling towards them.

IRRATIONAL – Group not able to think clearly and acted irrationally as a result. Scenarios: infrasound; exploded rocket with toxic fumes affecting the group's thinking.

NO TIME TO ACT – Tree falls on tent.

I'm open to any of these, but none have conclusive evidence.

[trekker]

It helps me to organize the various theories into three broad categories:

RATIONAL – Fleeing suddenly without coats or boots was a rational act. The group felt their lives were in immediate danger. Scenarios I favor: snow slab (either real or what the group thought was real); ball lightning with fiery balls rolling towards them.

IRRATIONAL – Group not able to think clearly and acted irrationally as a result. Scenarios: infrasound; exploded rocket with toxic fumes affecting the group's thinking.

NO TIME TO ACT – Tree falls on tent.

I'm open to any of these, but none have conclusive evidence.

I would add errors to RATIONAL category. To me most decisive and puzzling points are leaving the tent without proper clothing and descending toward cedar instead of labaz (which was closer than cedar). To me most plausible reason to leave the tent was delayed release of snow slab. That left some persons injured, so they had no time (in freezing environment) and crew to dig out proper supplies and clothing from buried tent. Going to cedar seems navigation error. After the release of snow slab only reasonable course of action would be descent back to labaz where they had firewood, food rations, some medical supplies and two pairs of shoes (all important for survival).

[Nigel Evans]

That is a photo I have not seen or at least never paid attention to. Very interesting and I can't think of a natural explanation for it.

.Rustem was found in an ice bed which could be due to lying in a stream.

Maybe. Although he might have been burrowing himself , although if I remember correctly there was a substantial amount of ice under him.

.the footsteps are heavily splayed out sideways suggesting to me wet snow bordering on slush.

I'm not sure about this. Could be.


.the "firn snow" on a tent on the north eastern slope of a siberian mountain in Feb.

Not sure of the context of translation from russian for firn snow. As I understand it ,firn snow is snow that lasts all year. I thought it was hard snow over the tent.


.the sastrugi around the tent forcing the rescue team to dismount could suggest wind carved wet snow.

I thought sastrugi snow was from the very nature of hard dry snow behaving like sand by the wind. Sort of like sand blasting.


.the photo of something scooping out a line of snow (like a man limping) doesn't suggest -20C snow to me but much softer snow. Ditto the depth and crispness of the footstep next to it.

I am intrigued by the crispness of that footstep and would have thought some snow would have filled it. Although I have no idea if they were photographing the footstep (could be searchers ) or the long indentation or maybe both. 

Snow in the north of UK can go frozen or slush quite quickly. In 2009 we had huge snow fall at sea level. It stayed for over four weeks. The snow that had been snow ploughed on to the pavement was still 2 feet deep. Rock hard and couldn't be walked on. Most snow I've seen.

I have been to Norway and seen the same and experienced crosscountry sling. It can be softer in the trees but harder on the lakes.

In this context firn equals hard, the snow on the tent was so hard they had to chip it out with an ice axe damaging the tent. The sastrugi was so rutted that they had to dismount.


This is not snow that has stayed at sub zero for three weeks, this is snow that has been warmed and then refrozen (imo).

[Ziljoe]

That is a photo I have not seen or at least never paid attention to. Very interesting and I can't think of a natural explanation for it.

.Rustem was found in an ice bed which could be due to lying in a stream.

Maybe. Although he might have been burrowing himself , although if I remember correctly there was a substantial amount of ice under him.

.the footsteps are heavily splayed out sideways suggesting to me wet snow bordering on slush.

I'm not sure about this. Could be.


.the "firn snow" on a tent on the north eastern slope of a siberian mountain in Feb.

Not sure of the context of translation from russian for firn snow. As I understand it ,firn snow is snow that lasts all year. I thought it was hard snow over the tent.


.the sastrugi around the tent forcing the rescue team to dismount could suggest wind carved wet snow.

I thought sastrugi snow was from the very nature of hard dry snow behaving like sand by the wind. Sort of like sand blasting.


.the photo of something scooping out a line of snow (like a man limping) doesn't suggest -20C snow to me but much softer snow. Ditto the depth and crispness of the footstep next to it.

I am intrigued by the crispness of that footstep and would have thought some snow would have filled it. Although I have no idea if they were photographing the footstep (could be searchers ) or the long indentation or maybe both. 

Snow in the north of UK can go frozen or slush quite quickly. In 2009 we had huge snow fall at sea level. It stayed for over four weeks. The snow that had been snow ploughed on to the pavement was still 2 feet deep. Rock hard and couldn't be walked on. Most snow I've seen.

I have been to Norway and seen the same and experienced crosscountry sling. It can be softer in the trees but harder on the lakes.

In this context firn equals hard, the snow on the tent was so hard they had to chip it out with an ice axe damaging the tent. The sastrugi was so rutted that they had to dismount.


This is not snow that has stayed at sub zero for three weeks, this is snow that has been warmed and then refrozen (imo).

I have read that the first 2 searchers that found the tent used the ice axe and the skis found at the site to dig up the hard snow on the tent because they came without any other digging tools. Its just what was at hand.

And firm snow is just what happens there. The snow was soft enough for them to place the skis on end all around the tent excavation .

Although we might be splitting hairs here.

[Nigel Evans]

Weren't all those skis placed there by the dpi group?

[Nigel Evans]

They cut the tent along a significant length with that ice axe because the snow had fused with the canvas? (imo). Melted into the canvas?

[Ziljoe]

I think it was the searchers. The first day the two that found the tent, used the pic axe found at the tent. Had a look inside , they said the snow was firm or firn. I am not sure and don't recall hearing it was stuck to the tent but interesting if it was. They took the alcohol and a couple of things back to the base camp .

The following day they removed things , and stood the skis from the flooring around the location of the tent. Along with ski poles. So it wasn't ice hard or even compacted .

[Nigel Evans]

The following day they removed things , and stood the skis from the flooring around the location of the tent. Along with ski poles. So it wasn't ice hard or even compacted .

Ah good point. But they didn't push them in very far 

[Manti]

Weren't all those skis placed there by the dpi group?

The Dyatlov group's skis were under the tent, except for two which were in the snow and used to tension ropes / hold the tent up.

The skis in the photos from the search are the searchers. Or... are they the DG's skis, after the searchers have already dug out the tent and for some reason pierced the skis into the snow?

In any case they were placed by the searchers.

[Nigel Evans]

Weren't all those skis placed there by the dpi group?

The Dyatlov group's skis were under the tent, except for two which were in the snow and used to tension ropes / hold the tent up.

The skis in the photos from the search are the searchers. Or... are they the DG's skis, after the searchers have already dug out the tent and for some reason pierced the skis into the snow?

In any case they were placed by the searchers.

Yes see below.

[Manti]

Ah sorry, fair enough.


As for current best guess, I don't really know. Several things turn out to be red herrings in my opinion, for example radiation - wasn't enough to cause health effects, most probably unrelated to the incident, or their dirty hands - simply they had no means to wash their hands, look at photos from days before the incident, their hands are already quite dark, or climbing the tree - hypothermia causes hallucinations so there's nothing weird about climbing a tree.

But so many things remain unexplained. Many branches and young trees around the cedar were reported to be cut. Is it true that no knife was found with any of the bodies or anywhere down in the forest? I haven't seen a single theory yet that explains this.

Update: So, despite https://dyatlovpass.com/controversy listing this as a controversy there was actually a "pocket knife" found on Rustem. This is in his autopsy report.

[sarapuk]

It helps me to organize the various theories into three broad categories:

RATIONAL – Fleeing suddenly without coats or boots was a rational act. The group felt their lives were in immediate danger. Scenarios I favor: snow slab (either real or what the group thought was real); ball lightning with fiery balls rolling towards them.

IRRATIONAL – Group not able to think clearly and acted irrationally as a result. Scenarios: infrasound; exploded rocket with toxic fumes affecting the group's thinking.

NO TIME TO ACT – Tree falls on tent.

I'm open to any of these, but none have conclusive evidence.

Yes it always boils down to the word conclusive. Thats why I think we will be on this Forum for some time to come.

[Nigel Evans]

And firm snow is just what happens there.

Firn snow is snow that is turning into ice due to a combination of pressure (weight of snow above) and summer temperatures (that soften it but don't melt it). Fresh snow is full of air and needs those elements in order to compact.

Q. So how does snow against a tent turn into ice in just three weeks?A. It can't be pressure it must be that it's been softened with raised temperatures and then refrozen.

The diary records temps in the forest of -18C to -24C. So how does the temp on the ridge get close to 0C?

[Nigel Evans]

Ditto the ravine snow, they needed pick axes to get down to the den floor. Granted in May when the temperature would be assisting "firning" but if you're biased  also a sign of unusual warming. Note how the side of the snow next to the den looks like "settled rubble".

[Ziljoe]

Good afternoon Nigel.

I am no expert in snow(0r anything for that matter)  however , thoughts are the ravine 4 was a snow collapse after A) finding a natural cornice /snow cave over the ravine( ravine meaning , between a couple or raised banks, and a place for snow to drift/gather)  or B) they dug their own hole in to the snow drift, possibly from where the snow den was situated. ( I have read the statement that said it was little more than arms length ,from den to bodies in ravine and the distance had been exaggerated to 6 meters)

Regarding snow,the temperature would flux and warm fronts would come followed by cold fronts. How mild or warm I don't. I still don't know what firn snow is by definition, and here's my point, are they saying firn snow as the opposite to soft or fresh snow. Firn snow is snow that's been lying , maybe heated a little by the sun and fluctuating temperature for a long time. It usually means snow that's lasted a year.

I know you are talking about the snow over the tent. My guess and that's all it is, would be they meant by communication that the snow over the tent is firn /firm. It is not "fresh "snow. It has gone through some processes, heat, wind , cooling. I don't know if the wind blowing the snow in its little particles would sufficiently raise temperatures to cause slight melting and hardening of the snow.( I was thinking of the tree bark getting blasted off the trees through the winter season. No real mystery there but it gives an example of the wind direction and how it can erode things , like the boot rock)

In the UK I'm sure you have experienced the powder dry stuff that we can't make a snowball with or the perfect ,just right snow for a snow man. As I understand it , these lairs of snow fall, melt ,etc on all places/ mountain sides. That's why a lot of snow slabs or avalanches occur( I think) it's the different make up or densities of the snow. There's no big secret to it. If the snow got wet and slush like, I think there might have seen signs of it in the tent, and on the bodies or clothing. Saying that I'm not against some snow melting or steam by an orb or electro field or even a self destructing rocket that vaporizers it's fuel in a flash over a mountain side. Its just low down my list of theory choices. ATM. I am happy to be convinced otherwise.


Back to the hard snow at the ravine, I think, and I could really be wrong here . The pick axe's , shovels and six strong men were called to dig the ravine 4 out. The snow was very hard there which leads to the idea of there being a snow collapse. When the snow collapses under the right conditions and depending on the humidity or make up of the snow it will become compacted, maybe heat up then freeze. Not like an ice block but hard. again going back to snow balls , if there is a suitable thaw and you make a snowball out of slush it becomes hard and dense. And you don't want that being thrown at your head.

I'm not disagreeing with you on anything mate. Just trying to explain my limited understanding and willing to learn along the way.

So for simple snow terminology

Fresh snow= fresh snow

Firn = snow that's been lying about at been exposed to weather and temperature fluctuations , movement.

[Nigel Evans]

Snow on a tent can only become ice in three weeks by being warmed close to it's melt point and then refrozen.

There is no other way...

[Ziljoe]

Perhaps Nigel, but where does it say it was ice? Remember they installed the skis in the snow next to the tent when digging it up. Or put them upright, the same as in the photo that allegedly shows dyatlov group installing the tent. ?

[Nigel Evans]

Perhaps Nigel, but where does it say it was ice?

https://dyatlovpass.com/sharavin-1?rbid=18461

Maybe we would have behaved differently if the ice ax was not perched there at the entrance, the tent was encapsulated with firn snow, we saw the ax, we needed to get inside the tent, of course, we grabbed an ice ax and started chopping. We did not have an ax or even a knife. Because we carried nothing but dry rations.

[Ziljoe]

I have seen that and thanks for the link. I'm going to probably make an idiot of myself but hey ho.

Firn snow. Is the in-between stage of snow to ice. As I'm reading on line and trying to work it out, you may have a point and I am happy to explore it with you.

Ideas of why it might be the case that it's actually harder on the tent canvas. The snow may have fallen on or blown over the tent. The tent would have provided insulation from the cold ground below. If there were spells of sun shine( I know we had a cold snap for -6 days up north UK but the sun was warm enough for a t-shirt No wind and it was early January.) , It is dark in colour and may have held heat from the sun? .

What snow lay may have melted in small amounts on top of the canvas causing a denser , crystallised snow? I didn't hear they had to dig the torch out. It is ,as always strange but might have a simple explanation. But I don't think it was "ice" as I know it to be.

In the photos of the searchers at the tent they don't seem to be sinking in the snow or any sign of their own foot prints. Unfortunately I don't know of the make up of the snow on the mountainside but it is evident that the DG had raised footprints , no foot prints, foot prints that were not raised and soft snow in the woods. Obviously the snow has different consistency within a short area and altitude. I would guess that's the wind , humidity and temperature fluctuations. I just don't know enough to comment which is frustrating ,. WAB or Igor B might be able to comment as I believe they have both been there.