In the absence of sufficiently convincing material facts, clues of a pychological nature can be useful!
4 members of the site have underlined the importance of the change in Dubinina's behaviour better than I could have done.
More precisely they are: sabine, Teddy, RidgeWatcher, Georgi. • [Quote from: sabine ==> Re: Lyudmila Dubinina's premonition of her tragic death; on May 12, 2019, 05:59:04 PM
---> Reply #1]
I rejected the idea as unlikely that Lyuda had a true premonition of doom and was in a telepathic contact with her eventual assailants. But I think nevertheless that it's very valuable to look again at the evidence of the diary entries as well as at Lyuda's obduction reports and how they have been re-evaluated by various forensic experts. And since Lyuda wrote about her bad mood during the group's stay in Vizhai, it's interesting to take a closer look at the location.
When investigating a suspicious death it's standard procedure to scrutinize the behavior of the victims shortly before their deaths and look for changes and unusual behavior.
That she stopped to update her expedition diary is indeed concerning, since keeping a personal diary on a daily basis was considered to be one of the essential duties during these expeditions.
But the big question remains: what caused this deterioration of her mood?
To me it seems that she knows quite well what exactly is upsetting her!
[/quote] • [Quote from: Teddy ==> Re: Lyudmila Dubinina's premonition of her tragic death; on May 13, 2019, 06:21:34 PM ---> Reply #4]
It is true what Sabine says - we don't have information about her usual way of behavior, but one thing we know - she was very strict and to be the first one to disobey the rules most probably she made it is strange. To stop writing in her diary is also strange. What's you take on this?
[/quote] • [Quote from: sabine ==> Re: Lyudmila Dubinina's premonition of her tragic death; on May 13, 2019, 10:10:31 PM ---> Reply #8]
Every investigator worth his/her salt should've taken a long and hard look at Lyuda's diary entries, and should've tried to find out by interviewing those who have been around during the stay in Vizhay, wth may have been bugging Lyuda
[/quote] • [Quote from: sabine ==> Re: Lyudmila Dubinina's premonition of her tragic death; on May 14, 2019, 03:06:40 PM ---> Reply #11]
The more I think about it, the less I believe that Lyuda was "mad as hel]" because she suffered from period-related symptoms. It's of course possible - but I have never heard a woman say that she is "mad as hell/ as the devil" because of her period. To me it sounds more as if something very specific made her really angry or furious, and I wonder why Lyuda didn't write down why she was so angry - especially since she accused herself of having a sharp tongue, which seems to imply that she normally didn't hold back her anger.
[/quote] • [Quote from: RidgeWatcher ==> Re: Lyudmila Dubinina's premonition of her tragic death; on August 04, 2020, 09:47:52 AM ---> Reply #24]
If we source Lyuda's behaviors during other hiking experiences then we can assess her behavioral contradictions in terms of her actions at Vizhay and afterwards.
After all, Lyuda sustained a bullet wound on a previous tourist hike and finished the hike while apologizing to her group for causing any delay and inconvenience.
Whatever happened in Vizhay was worse than a gun shot wound, no doubt, either physically or psychologically. Keep in mind that Lyuda was tough, smart and she was trusted by the group trusted her as the treasurer.
All in all, the Dyatlov group seemed to have a better and more comfortable time in the uninhabited 2nd Northern camp, than they did in Vizhay. That says a lot when reviewing the Vizhay experience.
I also think that Vizhay can be separated into two parts: Entering Vizhay to finishing the movie, and then to the hotel and their departure. From reading their journals I think that whatever happened took place after the movie finished. That Lyuda was very keen about whatever happened was quite evident.
[/quote] • [Quote from: Georgi ==> Re: Lyudmila Dubinina's premonition of her tragic death; on August 12, 2020, 02:47:57 AM ---> Reply #25]
I think that we can safely say that her behaviour during the trek and her actions were out of the ordinary. If we look at the hiking experience of the individual members and it's available here-->https://dyatlovpass.com/dyatlov-group-members-treks
we can see that she has had previous hikes with at least 6 member of the 10 person team, the only people she has not gone to hikes with in the previous 6 years are Zolotaryov for obvious reasons, Slobodin and Kolevatov. If this were her ordinary behaviour where she would at times refuse to participate in camp tasks that everyone should participate in and behaved in a manner to evoke negative reactions from her hike mates chances are she would not have been invited to a hike that would have lasted at least 21 days most of them in extreme weather in the wilderness. This was a trip where every member had to do their share for the success of the hike, so if in previous hikes she had been excessively moody, and refused to participate no one would have wanted an unreliable and untrustworthy member for a hike of this complexity, difficulty and length. To me, the fact that she had gone on previous hikes, was shot in the leg once before and was invited to a long, complicated, difficult, and exhausting hike it was because she was trusted to pull her weight and be a team player. This leads me to believe that the behaviour during the hike that we know of and the behaviour that was likely not written down was out of character for her which allowed he hike mates the ability to give her some leeway and also might indicate that something serious was bothering her.
She might have seen something she shouldn't have seen, or recognized someone who wanted to remain anonymous and her subconscious was bothering her because she might not have even realized what was wrong. What we know is that something was eating at her, what we can infer from the fact that she was on the hike is that her usual behaviour during hikes was professional and appropriate or she wouldn't have been invited on this once.
Historical part to be developed later...
On 25 and 26 January, the bad reception, from the Dyatlov group, which seems to have been the only one to exhibit :« a travel certificate and a trade union voucher, in which he addressed the leaders of Soviet, party and public organizations, “to render all possible assistance” in providing the Dyatlov group of hikers campaign XXI Congress of the CPSU...»
is explained by a change of balance in "the small local mafias" of the Ivdellag - Vizhay - Ivdel region.
In 1957-58 the situation was particularly complicated in the Vizhay area because of the diversity of groups there and because the dismantling of the Gulag (house arrest of different nationalities, unemployed former camp guards, venal or dubious policy, genuine gangsters who had been released without due consideration....etc.) When he died on 5 March 1953, Stalin left his companions (Beria, Malenkov, Kaganovitch, Khrushchev) an alarming legacy. Beria, with the support of his colleagues, took emergency measures to stabilise the Gulag; but soon there was dissension within the leadership group over what to do with the millions of victims of Stalin and the sprawling repressive and productive system. The period known as the Khrushchev Thaw (1953-1964) was marked by the struggle over this legacy and by the government's procrastination on Gulag reform. In the end, 5 million prisoners (Zeks) were freed and the camps and exile villages were dismantled. Speaking to delegates at the 20th CPSU Congress on 25 February 1956, Khrushchev condemned a selection of Stalin's misdeeds and mistakes. His government secretly engaged in partial criticism of the great waves of repression and acceded to demands for the rehabilitation of almost a million victims, mostly posthumously....
All these mafias (political entities competing with the state for the monopoly of the legitimate exercise of violence), or simple groups with divergent interests, were also characterised by more or less permanent modus vivandi.
(modus vivandi = informal arrangements in affairs regarding disputed erea of influence, despite political, historical or cultural incompatibilities, for the sake of contingency). Charles
has just wisely provided us several excellent and general links on these topics.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blat_(favors
Part 3Teddy : « I have solicited an opinion from Sabine Lechtenfeld, forensic psychologist from Hannover, Germany on the subject. What was tormenting Lyuda's mind in the days before the tragedy, was she feeling the impending doom or was she just a troubled soul ?»
Sabine Lechtenfeld was consulted as an expert by Teddy and as there is no decisive evidence, Sabine Lechtenfeld had no other possibility than to make speculations, conjectures.
But I am not an expert, I am writing here as an amateur historian (and I use the hypothetical deductive method: another subject to be developed later).
I start by doing a simple and seemingly silly school exercise ---> I select some sentences from sabine
's text and I automatically transform sabine's questions into affirmations
I hope this will highlight Sabine Lechtenfeld's deep intuitions. That is what she is not allowed to say as an expert.
and the result is .... Oh miracle ! I obtain the core of my working hypothesis TOK (hypothesis misleadingly called theory).
You may compare with the Reply #1https://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=433.msg5845#msg5845she = Dubinina
spotted something in her current location and situation which struck her in a very negative way..
•• she notice something which struck her as bad, but she hesites to put it down in writing..
•• she mulled it over and it continued to bother her..
•• she was so occupied with these thoughts that she didn't even keep up her diary. She have stopped speaking her mind..
•• she noticed something which may have had a connection or even led to the terrible fate of the expedition..
•• she noticed something going on which in her opinion wasn't correct, so she get mad and she is in an evil/horrible mood..
•• the eyes removed and the tongue cut out have an obvious significance : it is a symbol that the victim will never again be able to talk.will never again be able to talk.
•• the deliberate removal of the tongue and eyes are a very typical and widely reckognized message that the victim may have seen too much and was suspected to have talked about it.
•• Dubinina's facial disfigurations were the work of perpetrators [attackers] who mutilated her deliberately after she died.
•• the deliberate removal of the tongue and eyes are a very typical and widely reckognized message that the victim may have seen too much and was suspected to have talked about it. It also could be a symbol that the victim will never again be able to talk.
•• she noticed something going on in her immediate surroundings before the skiing started, which bothered her greatly and caused her horrible mood.
•• she continued to mull it over, it occupied her mind after they had started their hike, and she become edgy and withdrawn to the point where she didn't even bother to keep up her expedition diary and stopped socializing.
•• she certainly knew why she was mad and in an evil mood.
•• she noticed something which greatly upset her..
•• she and her fellow members have been thought to be a potential danger for someone [the one that I call the "client"] or a group of people and their interests.
•• the personal enemy of Lyuda [and of her dangerous group] recruited helpers in order to wipe out the whole group.
•• the expedition have been followed by their attackers. [or preceeded]
•• this was noticed by some group members [in particular by Tibo who tried to lighten the mood with his photo N° 17] , this could have sparked their jests about the existence of yetis.
It will now be easy to extend this theme, involuntarily suggested by Sabine, with extrapolations such as :
In the so-called hotel, Dubinina realised that illegal operations were going on openly and had a dispute with a notable (of the kind of a fierce former Stalinist gulag camp leader) who had been dismissed by the Khrushchev's Thaw. (In what follows I will call him the client).
• Dubinina "who like to add fuel to the fire"
= This is dishonest, illegal and against the laws of our beloved motherland.
• The client (very calm, but scornful) = Learn my little lady that here in Vizhay, I am in command. You are not in Sverdlovsk.
• Dubinina (scandalized) = You are a bandit, I will report you to the police (when I can).
• The client (still very calm, but inwardly furious)) : In Vizhay the chief of police is my partner. Here we are the ones who make the law.
My little lady, you can do as you like, but you will soon see what happens to those who do not respect our laws.
At the end of this " dialogue ", which, seen from afar, might have seemed quite insignificant.
•• is furious to find herself powerless in the face of such an affront to her (strict) moral concepts;
•• completely demoralised because, for the first time in her life, she realises that in her beloved motherland, in her Soviet paradise, corruption is everywhere;
•• slightly worried, because due to her keen female intuition she instinctively feels a threat that is not in vain.
•• is furious at this peronal who dares to insult him, whereas he had formely been in the habit of persecuting the zeks with impunity in the Stalinist camps ;
•• aftewards, as the days went by (25-29 January), already full of hatred towards this golden youth who had come to taunt him on his territory, the client became more and more worried: "Back in Sverdlovsk, with the support they have there, all these young scum are capable of creating serious trouble for me".