The raised footprints would suggest there was a warm front
If you mean warming, then yes, but the front that brought it was called a winter cold front of the 2nd kind. This phenomenon is characterized by the fact that in the most active area, a mass of cold air drives a wave of warm air in front of it. It looks like this. After the usual -15 - 25°C, it suddenly gets warmer (sometimes almost to 0°). A low, heavy, lead-colored cloud with a snow storm underneath comes from the west, and a severe general snowstorm continues for 2 hours, after which the wind subsides, the sky clears and the temperature begins to sharply fall by 10 - 15° or more in 40 - 50 minutes
The width of such areas can be > 200 km, but
may and 40 km. Therefore, the storm could pass by the rare weather stations in those places - Troitsk-Pechorsk (200 km to the NW from the Pass), Nyaksimvol (110 NE) Burmantovo (78 SE). In Burmantovo it is not exactly recorded, but a clockwise rotation of the wind followed by a subsequent cold snap is recorded there, which is typical for the passage of a cold front.
It would seem that most of the time the snow is solid or a hard crust on the slope . Yet , within a short period of time there are the conditions that leave detailed raised prints. If these snow / warm front conditions existed before they pitched their tent , would we not also be left with raised ski tracks over the pass to the tent location?
Any traces on the slopes remain only in snow that was recently brought and has not yet had time to harden. In convex areas from which snow is blown away - in the form of columns, and in depressions where it lingers and hardens over time - in the form of pits. If this happens when the snow temperature is –6°C or lower, the “columns” turn out to be fragile and are blown by the wind within 3 - 4 days.
«Columns» formed at a snow temperature of –1 to –5°C and humidity ≥ 5% can last until May and be the last snow to melt, surrounded by the first grass.
This also applies to marks from narrow skis. One of the search participants, Bartolomei, recalled about 3-4 years ago that at the end of March he saw the “rails” of the Dyatlov group’s ski tracks on certain sections of the slope between the Pass and the tent. But they, unlike the pillar paths, appeared not as a result of the action of the wind, but as a result of the fact that the snow around them melted under the sun. Throughout February and, apparently, March, they were covered with snow and therefore no one remembers about them. Thawing doesn't just happen on slopes. Even in my relatively flat Western Siberia, at the second half of April you can see clearings already cleared of snow, crossed by such “rails”.
meaning , they did not know that there was no real danger above them but may have suspected they were in a more serious situation and decided to leave for the forest
Seems that the reason that forced their to cut the tent, and then throw it and go into the forest without outer clothing, could be not the PROBABILITY of the occurrence of any unfavorable for life and health, circumstances but themselves these circumstances in all their fullness and nakedness. In both cases.
If it is possible for the snow to shift under load ,then it's the most likely reason for them to leave the tent.
Yes. The nature of the cut - horizontal (longitudinal) and not obtained on the first attempt - also suggests that the cut was made while lying under a flattened and compressed layer of snow the roof.
A standing tent would be cut vertically - from the ridge to the eaves or vice versa. From a sitting position on the fifth point (or on your knees), it will vertically be more natural and convenient to cut.
In an experiment by Semyashkin’s group in February 2010, the tent was cut exactly like this. And they left her standing.
This is what she looked like after 26 days: