You may disagree, but “cannot” is too strong given the post-2021 modeling and field observations
Once again: I used the word “cannot” in relation to a full-fledged avalanche with a transit section (run) of many tens or hundreds of meters. If you and Puzrin think that this is possible on the slope discussed here, then that is your right. I have no intention of trying to convince you otherwise. If you agree only to local snow movement within one and a half to two dozen meters, then I don’t argue with that.
If you have a photo call-out that shows the south guy line being hauled and the ridge freshly propped by the hikers, post it and we can look together
I don't have a photo of the ridge just fortified by tourists. I wrote about a well-known photo taken 26 days after the ridge was fortified, in which Koptelov is squatting in front of a tent found the day before.
Our Internet has been slowing down lately almost like it did at the dawn of its existence, and perhaps that is why the picture is not loading. Try to find it yourself.
Look at the ski pole sticking out of the snow that served as a side peg.
It is tilted towards the tent and hangs above the corner that it was supposed to pull to the left. What do you think this could mean? Doesn't this mean that at first some force pulled the corner of the tent (and then the peg tied to it) to the right (which broke or tilted the peg), but then another force restored the position of the tent's front to its original position, as a result of which its left corner ended up directly under the tilted (broken) peg?
the primary record shows a collapsed tent with cuts from inside and tracks leading downslope. It does not document a re-erected half-tent by the hikers themselves. If a pull-out and re-prop happened, please point to the specific markers in the discovery photos or protocols. Otherwise that timeline is an interpretation, not an established fact
That is, if someone's assumption about an attempt to restore the tent was recorded in the interrogation protocol, then it would no longer be an assumption, but a fact? Have I correctly understood your approach to the question of what should be considered a fact?
we all use inferences. The difference is whether they are tied to measurable terrain, snow mechanics, and the documentary record. A short, delayed wind slab over a weak layer is testable against those
If you point out to me my assumption that is not tied to the actual terrain and my modest knowledge in the field of snow mechanics, I will be infinitely grateful to you and will immediately tie up.
Wind slab sliding is not documentary data. It is not data at all. It is just one of the assumptions. It has more logical and physical justification than other assumptions, but this does not make it a fact.
Slaf on the eastern slope of the Kholatsakhl summit hill is not direct evidence. The conditions there are completely different - slope of about 45° and almost classic avalanche collection. Such landslides probably occur there more than once per winter.
Its only use to avalanche theorists is the speed with which the wind removed all traces of the landslide.
Fixed volumes, inch counts, and confident rebuild timelines need the same standard of proof
Ok, but there can be no proof here. Everything has been blown away by the wind. We can only talk about arguments. Based on the same logic, knowledge and experience accumulated by humanity.
And common sense, which, in principle, everyone, starting with guinea pigs, should have.
1. If they had been crushed by a layer of snow about 0.5 meters thick, they would not have been able to get out from under it, but if at least that much snow had not been added to the 20-25 centimeters from which they could have gotten out, they would most likely have dug out the tent and stayed in it until the morning, using it as a multi-person sleeping bag.
2. How long do you think it would take at least 6 twenty year old guys to clear a 2x4 meter area of several chunks of compacted snow?