Lights in the Sky

[Senior Maldonado]

They may not have being trying to help their stricken friends but rather trying to help themselves?

There were no signs that Zina, Rustem, and Igor made any attempts to keep warm by putting on clothes of their dead friends. And this is the first action (in my opinion) to help themselves. Especially before starting a long climb against the wind. If you will say that those 3 hikers decided to leave their struggling with frost but still alive friends and switched to helping themselves, it looks like desertion and is in contrary to their group's spirit.

I also don't think they would be exhausted by covering 1.5 km up or down , that's only 3 km and is nothing to any average fit person. Moving in the cold would help.

The fact is that all three did not manage even 2.5 km. If they were not exhausted, how would you call that?

[Ziljoe]

They may not have being trying to help their stricken friends but rather trying to help themselves?

There were no signs that Zina, Rustem, and Igor made any attempts to keep warm by putting on clothes of their dead friends. And this is the first action (in my opinion) to help themselves. Especially before starting a long climb against the wind. If you will say that those 3 hikers decided to leave their struggling with frost but still alive friends and switched to helping themselves, it looks like desertion and is in contrary to their group's spirit.

I also don't think they would be exhausted by covering 1.5 km up or down , that's only 3 km and is nothing to any average fit person. Moving in the cold would help.

The fact is that all three did not manage even 2.5 km. If they were not exhausted, how would you call that?

There in lies the problem. We would think if anyone was going back to the tent , they would take the boots of the hikers at the very minimum , even if they were still alive. So, Igor , Zina and Rustem don't take the boots to help them back up the slope ,(  if thats what they were doing) , there is the possibility that they couldn't get to the ravine four as this is where a potential snow cave collapse happened.

Or it could be that their hands were just too frostbitten and dysfunctional that all feeling had gone. I would expect the loss of hand movement within a couple of hours in poor conditions but this is variable . At least one of the hiker's had gloves but wasn't wearing them when found, again this suggests they didn't lie down and then die in the cold, it suggests that they died whilst doing something and when they died no one else searched him or used his clothing . It suggests that they're clothing couldn't be utilised by any survivors and that the ravine 4 weren't utilising all of their own clothing.

You missed this bit from my post

. If there was further accidents like falling in the ravine, out of the tree, or snow collapse at the den/ravine , those left alive have no other choice but to try to regain equipment from the tent

If I,R and Z were the last alive then it is not desertion .

To take refuge in the forest , start a fire and build what is at least the start of a den with flooring , shows intention to survive. All the activity found suggests this . It shows they moved as a group , and it shows collective work by the group by means of the only tools and resources they had. If we were all asked for two things we would expect to do in a survival situation in winter and cold we would all say fire and shelter. This is exactly what we have .

As to why i wouldn't call it exhausted, is its not the activity or distance that cause the exhaustion but the cold . ( Its also meant to say" moving in the cold wouldn't help", not would) .

Even if we have rockets , fights , tree's , avalanche's or whatever among the group as the reason for their migration to the forest from the tent, at some point they would have to get back to their only chance of survival,that is the tent and its contents . To sit and wait is death.

[SURI]

The fact is that all three did not manage even 2.5 km. If they were not exhausted, how would you call that?

They couldn't even manage 1 km, so exhaustion is an understatement.

[sarapuk]

I make a quantitative distinction between avalanche and slab slip, the latter being a localized slump in a slab of snow. That snow could be the weight of a car if sufficiently large. I feel the crush on the tent may be sufficient.It has two effects. One effect is that it damages any external support poles, the other is that it reduces the living space in the tent.  From the photographic evidence, I believe both conditions are met.

My feeling is that any attempt to clear snow after cutting out of the tent is a futile exercise. I compare it to trying to dig a hole in beach sand. It keeps back filling. This plus the amount of material deposited on the tent made re-enrty difficult. Further, there was no real benefit in getting ski boots, they have slick soles and of course the skis themselves are under the tent which is under the snow. I can believe a flashlight was temporarily stuck in the snow on the tent for illumination, but in the confusion and decision making to get out of the cold, the light was simply forgotten.

It is my opinion that the team sensibly made for the forest and not Boot Rock. The rock is a wind break, the forest represents both warmth and shelter. What they could not control was the distance, the condition of the slope and the persistence of the inclement conditions.

Bad things happen to good people. Nature is indifferent.

There is nothing sensible about wandering down to the forest after your tent has been destroyed if you are not equipped for the extreme cold conditions. If, on the other hand, you are scared of something
so much that you fear for your life, then you may scarpa down to the forest.

We agree that the tent was destroyed, they were not equipped for extreme cold and they feared for their lives. I see no contradiction. Nature can produce this result or something living could. I opt for Nature.

Interesting that you say something living. What if it's not nature and not living !? Or a combination of 3 things.

[sarapuk]

There is nothing sensible about wandering down to the forest after your tent has been destroyed if you are not equipped for the extreme cold conditions. If, on the other hand, you are scared of something so much that you fear for your life, then you may scarpa down to the forest.

Descent to the forest in bad weather conditions and in darkness takes about 35 minutes. If the hikers had spent 5 more minutes for getting their clothes and equipment from the tent, the descent would have taken 40 minutes. 35 against 40 minutes is not a big difference. 40 minutes might even had an advantage, as the hikers would have gone fully dressed, much better protected against wind and frost.

For me their decision to leave the tent's spot "as is" says the following:
- the hikers did not intend to go far (not to the forest);
- they did not intend to leave the tent for a long time (for hours);
- they did not have even 5 minutes to penetrate the collapsed tent and get what was needed during a long absence.

Interesting. You are saying that whatever it was that scared them out of the tent didn't scare them enough for them to go all the way down to the forest !? Or are you saying that they left the tent and something scared them again, and then they decided it was too dangerous to go back to the tent, so they fled to the forest !?

 

[sarapuk]

The idea that anyone would grab a knife and cut open a tent without first grabbing their jacket seems counterintuitive and just plain wrong!  Not going into the tent and retrieving some necessities before leaving the tent seems ridiculous. Is there an explnation? Of course there is, in fact there are many posted all over this forum. Generally speaking, if you subscribe to the idea that conspirators relocated the tent from the forest, your problem is solved. If, however, the evidence seems lacking, then the tent was always where it was found. What persuaded them to leave? Was it animal (2 or 4 legged), vegetable (food, not a fallen tree), or mineral ( weather and elemental forces)?

I keep going back to a crush of snow on the tent, breaking support poles and stifling   everyone's ability to breathe. In that case, grabbing a coat is of secondary importance. Further if the tent is flattened by an overburden of snow, getting back in might not be as easy as we imagine in the comfort of our writing desk. We may imagine they dug straight up and out, so getting back in should be simple, but what if it was not so? What would defeat the combined efforts of nine people on their knees, shoulder to shoulder digging like dogs to get back inside? I can only think that with bare hands it would be hard. Against backfilling snow, that much harder. Facing  blowing snow and hurricane force winds, hardest of all. Perhaps turning their back to the wind, retreating the 35 minutes for a bit of shelter and a warming fire made better sense. Then again, I wasn't there.

But many investigators have analysed the tent site and found it highly unlikely to have been affected by an avalanche. Look at avalanches in the big mountain ranges of the world. Terrific events. Nothing like that could have happened on the relatively gentle slopes of the hill where they pitched their tent for the last time.

[sarapuk]

I keep going back to a crush of snow on the tent, breaking support poles and stifling   everyone's ability to breathe. In that case, grabbing a coat is of secondary importance. Further if the tent is flattened by an overburden of snow, getting back in might not be as easy as we imagine in the comfort of our writing desk. We may imagine they dug straight up and out, so getting back in should be simple, but what if it was not so? What would defeat the combined efforts of nine people on their knees, shoulder to shoulder digging like dogs to get back inside? I can only think that with bare hands it would be hard. Against backfilling snow, that much harder. Facing  blowing snow and hurricane force winds, hardest of all. Perhaps turning their back to the wind, retreating the 35 minutes for a bit of shelter and a warming fire made better sense. Then again, I wasn't there.

This would be very plausible scenario, but we should not forget about 3 hikers attempting to return back to the tent. If 9 people were not able to fetch their clothes and equipment from the tent covered by thick layer of snow, how could one, two ot three people do that in a couple of hours? What was the reason to go back if the forest provided excellent shelter from bad weather conditions?

We have to be careful here. Many investigators assume that the 3 you are talking about were actually going back up to their tent site. But what if they weren't? 

[sarapuk]

I did not understand the group to be separated when the trouble developed. If the three hikers Igor, Rustem and Zina are the ones, then I am getting the suggestion that they froze to death returning to the tent to help their stricken comrades. That is a problem for me, especially since none were bringing firewood back.

The problem for investigators is not being able to have a definite timeline of events. For instance, it is assumed that the 3 in question were returning to their tent site.

[GlennM]

...well, things were going poorly in the forest, maybe it was time to IRZ to cut their losses and get back to the tent, suit up and bug out for the labaz and Vizhay.

[sarapuk]

...well, things were going poorly in the forest, maybe it was time to IRZ to cut their losses and get back to the tent, suit up and bug out for the labaz and Vizhay.

They should have suited up before they left their tent. If something scared them so much that they fled their tent, not properly dressed, then I doubt that they would have been keen to go back to their tent.

[GlennM]

...well, things were going poorly in the forest, maybe it was time to IRZ to cut their losses and get back to the tent, suit up and bug out for the labaz and Vizhay.

They should have suited up before they left their tent. If something scared them so much that they fled their tent, not properly dressed, then I doubt that they would have been keen to go back to their tent.

Yet, that is exactly where they were headed. Being scared is an assumption. Suiting up takes time and the availability of the clothes. A snow covered collapsed tent makes that difficult, not impossible. They really did not have much chance for success. Once the body core temp falls to 85 degrees, death is not too far away.