December 04, 2020, 12:47:12 PM
Dyatlov Pass Forum

Author Topic: You want avalanches? Here we go  (Read 4423 times)

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June 20, 2020, 12:13:46 AM
Reply #30

bookworms33

Guest
All good points. I figured that would be unlikely. I still wouldn't rule out a wall collapse, but the major injuries would likely have ocurred well after such an incident.

June 22, 2020, 01:58:16 PM
Reply #31
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Here me out, The avalanche theory has been totally contaminated by the disregard of the two photos which show clearly the exterior snowscape at the top of the wall is higher the the interior finished floor of the tent at the time the photo was taken. which is a faulty grade. In a rainy senecio the tent would probably flood or at least take on some water.  Here is what I propose happened which has never been offered up before. The one taking the photo who is on a higher elevation yells to the team member who looks up. If it were an emergency there would be no photo as everyone would be pitching in to get the tent ready.  After the tent is set up a few team members went in side to prepare for the evening while the others are secure the tent and are packing the snow on and around the tent.  Mountaineering 101, build a snow wall to protect the tent and its occupants. But by compacting the snow in these conditions is a fatal mistake which causes the surface to freeze. This would be ok but the men are not satisfied with the height of the wall because the winds are really picking up, so they take their skis and pull down as much snow as they can to build a higher wall and then compact that...What they could not know is the new snow they brought down is now free standing on is own. But as soon as the winds reach gale force and now aided by gravity, a section of the wall slams into and onto the hikers and Zina takes a direct hit on her side. Because they are stunned and cannot move lateral to the entrance they cut themselves out which can been seen in the tent cuts. Humans cut horizontal and vertical, these appear to be done from on their sides. Once they are out and now are at deaths door step, the other section of the wall slides onto the tent covering up there gear. They try with their hands and even break a ski pole but they are not at the beach  and the elements are starting to take its tole on their hands. They come to a decision very quickly  to move as fast as they can to the forest and start a fire.  The two Yuri’s sprint ahead to start a fire and the team can only move as fast as they can in gale force winds. But they do reach it quicker than one would expect or they would of died on the slopes.  The theory satisfies why they left without their gear..Lastly Only a gale force wind can uncover raised foot prints and also the time it takes to blow away critical snow and the previous elevation from on and  around the tent.  Note: Even if they were able to retrieve their gear by the time they find what’s what and how do we fix the tent with frozen hands. It was logical to gamble at the forest with a fire and reassess things in the morning.  Their are chunks of measurable snow on the tent with shadows....

I think this is the most likely scenario. Moses Akselrod's theory supports this, except that he uses the word "avalanche". A localized wall collapse seems like it could still do that sort of damage, though. My primary question is: could someone with flail chest injuries (such as those suffered by Dubinina) possibly be capable of hiking a mile down hill afterwards? Teddy might be able to answer this. :)

(I'm new here, but I've been reading this forum for a while now. Hello everyone.)  thanky1

Well I would have thought that someone with injuries like Dubinina would be dead almost instantly. In other words not capable of walking anywhere.
DB

July 20, 2020, 07:44:03 AM
Reply #32
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eurocentric


The collapsed snow wall is a better idea IMO than an avalanche.

Because although it would depend on the amount of material and travel, I find it hard to conceive of 9 people being caught up in an avalanche and nobody has a broken limb or finger. They mainly have crush injuries to ribs and fractured skulls.

I looked up a study of avalanche injuries, and while fractured ribs appears to be one of the main traumas (while none had fractured skulls) broken limbs feature the highest, and spinal injuries are also common.  Out of 105 cases studied 18 had broken limbs or dislocated shoulders. 16 had broken ribs.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51377819_Pattern_And_Severity_of_Injury_in_Avalanche_Victims

August 11, 2020, 02:25:14 PM
Reply #33
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Squatch


The collapsed snow wall is a better idea IMO than an avalanche.

Because although it would depend on the amount of material and travel, I find it hard to conceive of 9 people being caught up in an avalanche and nobody has a broken limb or finger. They mainly have crush injuries to ribs and fractured skulls.

I looked up a study of avalanche injuries, and while fractured ribs appears to be one of the main traumas (while none had fractured skulls) broken limbs feature the highest, and spinal injuries are also common.  Out of 105 cases studied 18 had broken limbs or dislocated shoulders. 16 had broken ribs.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51377819_Pattern_And_Severity_of_Injury_in_Avalanche_Victims
I'm in the "They thought it was an avalanche" camp.

But in order for me to credibly sell that idea, the evening in question would have to involve a really terrible snow and wind storm. I think the picture of the hikers digging out a place for their tent shows that weather conditions were already bad. That picture looks like there is a whiteout condition going on in the late afternoon or early evening.

So suppose sometime during the night -- probably just after midnight -- the weather gets so bad that wind gusts are threatening to blow the tent down. This could happen if extremely cold air flows up the west side of Kholat Syakhl and down on to the side Dyatlov's group is camping on. Kholat Syakhl is concave-shaped on the west side and maybe that helps funnel the wind to the tent.

The thought of the tent collapsing keeps the hikers awake. Perhaps a partial collapse of the tent results in Nikolay Thibeaux-Brignolle (Tibo) and Semyon Zolotaryov getting dressed and going outside the tent to investigate. Those two are found to be the best-dressed of the group and they are in theory outside when the "event" happens.

Igor Dyatlov creates several small eye-level slits in the right side of the tent to communicate with Tibo and Zolotaryov while they are outside inspecting and/or fixing the tent supports. These eye-level slits don't seriously compromise the environment inside the tent because they are on the side opposite the source of wind. Dyatlov has a flashlight in his hand which he periodically turns on and points through the tent slits, perhaps to monitor the progress of Tibo and Zolotaryov or to signal them from time to time. A decision may need to be made soon to relocate down the slope to a wooded area if the weather does not improve.

Then the event happens. Severe gusts of wind moving up the west side of Kholat Syakhl pick up large amounts of mountain snow, which then rain down on the east side of the mountain. In the crosshair is the Dyatlov group's tent. The snow falls down on and around the area of the hikers' shelter. In the severe weather conditions, the two hikers outside the tent and the seven inside cannot distinguish this from the beginning of an avalanche. Taking no chances, the seven hikers inside the tent cut their way out either because the entrance is thought to be blocked by snow or it is simply the quickest and easiest way out. Snow continues to fall onto the tent as the nine hikers -- most of them unprepared for this and not fully dressed -- quickly leave the area in fear and seek shelter in the treeline below. In the chaos and confusion, Dyatlov drops his flashlight, and it is later found on a pile of snow which fell on the tent. This snow appears to be windblown snow to the search party that later follows because, well, it is. But most of the windblown snow that fell vertically is later blown away before rescue searchers discover the tent.

One-third of the way down to the sheltered forest area, Rustem Slobodin falls and sustains a skull fracture and two head bruises. During this incident a flashlight is lost, and even though it is still on in the darkness, weather and snow combine to conceal it (Or, alternatively, perhaps it was placed in a visible location intentionally as a guide back). Slobodin continues on with the rest of the group to the treeline below.

Once there, the group starts a fire under a cedar tree. Everyone tries to collect branches to start a fire, with Yuri Doroshenko and Yuri Krivonischenko doing much of the tree-climbing. The fire is started but it is too late for Doroshenko and Krivonischenko and they eventually succumb to hypothermia.

Eventually the modest fire wanes and a decision is made to seek different shelter. The surviving seven have different ideas, however. Leader Dyatlov thinks the severe weather on Kholat Syakhl has subsided and the tent and supplies can be salvaged, while Zolotaryov thinks it is best to shelter nearby and get the supplies they have previously cached elsewhere during daylight when the weather is more favorable. So Dyatlov, Slobodin and Zinaida Kolmogarova try to return to the tent, while Zolotaryov, Tibo, Lyudmila Dubinina and Aleksander Kolevatov build a shelter "den" in a river ravine using branch materials collected earlier. They also take some clothing from the deceased Doroshenko and Krivonischenko.

On their way to the tent, Dyatlov, Slobodin and Kolmogarova succumb to hypothermia. Zolotaryov, Tibo, Dubinina and Kolevatov leave their ravine den but slip and fall a short time later back into the river ravine after unknowingly walking on a snow-covered ravine edge. All four sustain severe fall injuries and are covered by collapsing snow and snow that falls later in the coming weeks.

August 14, 2020, 09:30:16 AM
Reply #34
Offline

sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
The collapsed snow wall is a better idea IMO than an avalanche.

Because although it would depend on the amount of material and travel, I find it hard to conceive of 9 people being caught up in an avalanche and nobody has a broken limb or finger. They mainly have crush injuries to ribs and fractured skulls.

I looked up a study of avalanche injuries, and while fractured ribs appears to be one of the main traumas (while none had fractured skulls) broken limbs feature the highest, and spinal injuries are also common.  Out of 105 cases studied 18 had broken limbs or dislocated shoulders. 16 had broken ribs.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51377819_Pattern_And_Severity_of_Injury_in_Avalanche_Victims
I'm in the "They thought it was an avalanche" camp.

But in order for me to credibly sell that idea, the evening in question would have to involve a really terrible snow and wind storm. I think the picture of the hikers digging out a place for their tent shows that weather conditions were already bad. That picture looks like there is a whiteout condition going on in the late afternoon or early evening.

So suppose sometime during the night -- probably just after midnight -- the weather gets so bad that wind gusts are threatening to blow the tent down. This could happen if extremely cold air flows up the west side of Kholat Syakhl and down on to the side Dyatlov's group is camping on. Kholat Syakhl is concave-shaped on the west side and maybe that helps funnel the wind to the tent.

The thought of the tent collapsing keeps the hikers awake. Perhaps a partial collapse of the tent results in Nikolay Thibeaux-Brignolle (Tibo) and Semyon Zolotaryov getting dressed and going outside the tent to investigate. Those two are found to be the best-dressed of the group and they are in theory outside when the "event" happens.

Igor Dyatlov creates several small eye-level slits in the right side of the tent to communicate with Tibo and Zolotaryov while they are outside inspecting and/or fixing the tent supports. These eye-level slits don't seriously compromise the environment inside the tent because they are on the side opposite the source of wind. Dyatlov has a flashlight in his hand which he periodically turns on and points through the tent slits, perhaps to monitor the progress of Tibo and Zolotaryov or to signal them from time to time. A decision may need to be made soon to relocate down the slope to a wooded area if the weather does not improve.

Then the event happens. Severe gusts of wind moving up the west side of Kholat Syakhl pick up large amounts of mountain snow, which then rain down on the east side of the mountain. In the crosshair is the Dyatlov group's tent. The snow falls down on and around the area of the hikers' shelter. In the severe weather conditions, the two hikers outside the tent and the seven inside cannot distinguish this from the beginning of an avalanche. Taking no chances, the seven hikers inside the tent cut their way out either because the entrance is thought to be blocked by snow or it is simply the quickest and easiest way out. Snow continues to fall onto the tent as the nine hikers -- most of them unprepared for this and not fully dressed -- quickly leave the area in fear and seek shelter in the treeline below. In the chaos and confusion, Dyatlov drops his flashlight, and it is later found on a pile of snow which fell on the tent. This snow appears to be windblown snow to the search party that later follows because, well, it is. But most of the windblown snow that fell vertically is later blown away before rescue searchers discover the tent.

One-third of the way down to the sheltered forest area, Rustem Slobodin falls and sustains a skull fracture and two head bruises. During this incident a flashlight is lost, and even though it is still on in the darkness, weather and snow combine to conceal it (Or, alternatively, perhaps it was placed in a visible location intentionally as a guide back). Slobodin continues on with the rest of the group to the treeline below.

Once there, the group starts a fire under a cedar tree. Everyone tries to collect branches to start a fire, with Yuri Doroshenko and Yuri Krivonischenko doing much of the tree-climbing. The fire is started but it is too late for Doroshenko and Krivonischenko and they eventually succumb to hypothermia.

Eventually the modest fire wanes and a decision is made to seek different shelter. The surviving seven have different ideas, however. Leader Dyatlov thinks the severe weather on Kholat Syakhl has subsided and the tent and supplies can be salvaged, while Zolotaryov thinks it is best to shelter nearby and get the supplies they have previously cached elsewhere during daylight when the weather is more favorable. So Dyatlov, Slobodin and Zinaida Kolmogarova try to return to the tent, while Zolotaryov, Tibo, Lyudmila Dubinina and Aleksander Kolevatov build a shelter "den" in a river ravine using branch materials collected earlier. They also take some clothing from the deceased Doroshenko and Krivonischenko.

On their way to the tent, Dyatlov, Slobodin and Kolmogarova succumb to hypothermia. Zolotaryov, Tibo, Dubinina and Kolevatov leave their ravine den but slip and fall a short time later back into the river ravine after unknowingly walking on a snow-covered ravine edge. All four sustain severe fall injuries and are covered by collapsing snow and snow that falls later in the coming weeks.

But this scenerio supposes that they were expecting the weather to get worse. Therefore they would have been prepared for an evacuation of the Tent.
DB

August 14, 2020, 12:15:57 PM
Reply #35
Offline

Squatch


But this scenerio supposes that they were expecting the weather to get worse. Therefore they would have been prepared for an evacuation of the Tent.
Perhaps not. I think they were overconfident and maybe thought the storm would not get any worse. Or it would not turn into anything they could not handle. And surely there would be time to properly evacuate if the weather got worse?

When you look at all the pictures they took, they were very jubilant and carefree. With the exception of Zolotaryov, they were all young and thought they would live forever. I did at their age. And at 38 years old Zolotaryov had been through World War 2 and what could be worse than that?

August 14, 2020, 05:09:14 PM
Reply #36
Offline

sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
But this scenerio supposes that they were expecting the weather to get worse. Therefore they would have been prepared for an evacuation of the Tent.
Perhaps not. I think they were overconfident and maybe thought the storm would not get any worse. Or it would not turn into anything they could not handle. And surely there would be time to properly evacuate if the weather got worse?

When you look at all the pictures they took, they were very jubilant and carefree. With the exception of Zolotaryov, they were all young and thought they would live forever. I did at their age. And at 38 years old Zolotaryov had been through World War 2 and what could be worse than that?

I have camped out in storm and decided to stay with the Tent I had. If I thought that the weather was going to get worse to the point of me having to evacuate the Tent I would have left fully clothed and equipped.
DB