Simplest Possible Credible Explanation

[Star man]

Hi folks,

This might be an interest thought experiment and analysis tool - or not

Is it possible to break down the various events of the DPI into discrete questions and then try to indentify the most simple credible explanation for each question without introducing additional external factors?  In other words assume the following as fact:

The only people on Kholat Syakhl on 1st Feb 1959 were the Dyatlov group
There were no aliens
There were no monsters
There were no animals
There was no military or military weapons or cover up

Is it possible to then build a narrative to explain all events?

For instance here are some of the key questions:

1. why did they leave the tent and the camp?
2. How did they leave the tent and the camp?
3. Where did they go, with whom, why did they go there?
4. What did they do?
5. How did they sustain their injuries?
6. How did they die?
7 etc

Some of the existing theories might come to mind such as avalanche and ball lightning, but they may not be the most credible.

Regards

Star man

[Star man]

Why did they leave the tent and camp?

The fact that most of them left without their shoes suggests that there was some kind of immediate and significant threat to life?

Or could there have been a perception of an immediate threat to life?

Or they left because they had somehow become intoxicated/drugged and lost their senses?

Or they left knowing what they were doing as some kind of prank or test?  Maybe it was a survival test to go to the tree line and back without their gear?

Or maybe there was some kind of victimisation and bullying with one or more group members and that person lost it and ran into the night without their gear and the rest went after them immediately and before they realised they were all in trouble.

Or maybe for some reason one of the group attacked them with a knife threatening to kill them and they all scattered in different directions?

Any thoughts?

Regards
Star man

[Nigel Evans]

The simplest explanation is the most fantastic, ball lightning.

It can explain all the key evidence, decision to flee the tent, decision to remain away from the tent, signs of nitric acid, burns, injuries from crushing or explosion, signs of debilitation in (assumed) returning ascent.

It is supported by Semyon's photos and Ivanov's conviction who saw all the evidence before confiscation, eye witness accounts of lights in the area during that period.
It is the front runner theory by far. But no one wants to believe it! 

[Morski]

.

[cennetkusu]

The most precise explanation is an enforcing force. There is no other explanation for this incident. Look at the surveillance cuts in the tent. This is definitive evidence of the existence of an external force. This power can be human. But injuries to the snow lair are not what people can do. I mean, there's a compelling force outside of people. That's for sure. And this power could have fired the young men out of the tent immediately. But then the young people decided to go back to the tent rather than die from the cold. Then this forced force must have decided to attack.         THE MAN FROM ANOTHER WORLD*
Always domineering physically and psychologically, he can induce terror, stupefaction, and panic. Some say he has control over fog and wind. Telepathic phenomena are also common. Oftentimes the Kompolen melts into thin air, leaving no traces on the soil or the snow.

Among numerous evidences collected by Koshmanova only few tell of people being mutilated or killed by the Kompolen.

The Russian historian N. M. Karamzin brings up a legend about a forest giant “who would grab ten or more people with his hand so that they could not take him alive…” In 1946, in the village of Shamya, a forest man killed a child, ripping him to shreds, and put his head on a stake. Koshmanova relates a story where a “forest spirit” killed a woman by ripping out her lower jaw.

Despite his sometimes monstrous size, pointed skull and the thick short hair covering his body and face, the Mansi never refer to “the Host” as an animal. “This is a person; however,” say the Mansi, “he is from another world.”

“It was the night of February 1st, 1959”. Despite such an epic prologue, the book of the Mansi author Olga Koshmanova, Staring at the Back, makes no mention of the Dyatlov Incident, not even in passing. By a strange coincidence, that very night the author had met “the Host” in a remote village in the Ural taiga. That encounter inspired her almost 50-year-long quest for evidence of this “forest spirit”.

According to the natives’ belief, being in close proximity to “the Host” often comes with a blend of tactile, visual and mental sensations described with the concept of “mayachit*”. The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”. The Mansi put their altars at the borders of those places.

Quite often, such locations will coincide with areas of electromagnetic anomalies.

Once in the forbidden territory, people start to hear things: whistles, stamping of the feet, and shouts - at times so shrilly as to cause vomit. If trespassers do not heed the warning, the Host may appear in the flesh.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world

[Monika]

The simplest explanation is the most fantastic, ball lightning.

It can explain all the key evidence, decision to flee the tent, decision to remain away from the tent, signs of nitric acid, burns, injuries from crushing or explosion, signs of debilitation in (assumed) returning ascent.

It is supported by Semyon's photos and Ivanov's conviction who saw all the evidence before confiscation, eye witness accounts of lights in the area during that period.
It is the front runner theory by far. But no one wants to believe it! 

Nigel, dont be affraid I believe!   

Immediatelly I read the article: https://sites.google.com/site/mezoelectric/dyatlov-pass-incident-1
all make sense for me.

It is clear that they were forced out from the tent by an imminent danger, and nothing outside of the tent (except the cold) threaded them. The question is, what was the immediate threat  in the nearest area of the tent?? A tent under electrical discharge would explain it. The skis functioned as lightning conductors. It also explains why they couldn't take their clothes and boot from outside.
Normal ball lighting had durability up to 4 sec but plasmoids are different. There are testimonies of people who have experienced ball lighting take 7 hours. Many people think that we already know all the laws of physics, but that is a mistake. We're still just like the humans at the beginning of discovery.

[Loose}{Cannon]

Ball lightning is FAR from being the "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation"

Do you climb the tallest tree around in a lightning show?   I dont care what 'type' of lightning it is, your not going out in the woods with this guy.

[Star man]

So the point of this thread is to try to establish if there could be a simple “normal “ explanation by considering any simple options.

I am not trying to rule out other theories which are well represented in other threads. But is it possible to explain DPI using simple explanations? The interesting bit is if an exhaustive consideration of simple options there isn’t any that can explain it, or at least no simple explanation that is credible.

So- is there a simple explanation for why they might have left the tent with no footwear (other than Semyon, Thibo and Rustems single boot)?

Regards
Star man

[Nigel Evans]

The simplest explanation is the most fantastic, ball lightning.

It can explain all the key evidence, decision to flee the tent, decision to remain away from the tent, signs of nitric acid, burns, injuries from crushing or explosion, signs of debilitation in (assumed) returning ascent.

It is supported by Semyon's photos and Ivanov's conviction who saw all the evidence before confiscation, eye witness accounts of lights in the area during that period.
It is the front runner theory by far. But no one wants to believe it! 

Nigel, dont be affraid I believe!   

Immediatelly I read the article: https://sites.google.com/site/mezoelectric/dyatlov-pass-incident-1
all make sense for me.

It is clear that they were forced out from the tent by an imminent danger, and nothing outside of the tent (except the cold) threaded them. The question is, what was the immediate threat  in the nearest area of the tent?? A tent under electrical discharge would explain it. The skis functioned as lightning conductors. It also explains why they couldn't take their clothes and boot from outside.
Normal ball lighting had durability up to 4 sec but plasmoids are different. There are testimonies of people who have experienced ball lighting take 7 hours. Many people think that we already know all the laws of physics, but that is a mistake. We're still just like the humans at the beginning of discovery.

Hey! Yes i think digging through the 1 metre of snow created an earthing point on an otherwise insulated mountain with unfortunate results.

[Nigel Evans]

Ball lightning is FAR from being the "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation"

Do you climb the tallest tree around in a lightning show?   I dont care what 'type' of lightning it is, your not going out in the woods with this guy.

Try and hang out with Monika perhaps...

[Star man]

Could some of the group simply got drunk on vodka and run down the slope bare foot.  The more sensible ones followed but it was too late by the time they found them?

[Loose}{Cannon]

#5.  This event sent the group into a mad frenzy slashing their way out of the tent in what must have been a horrific panic. After extracting themselves out of the tent and destroying it forever, the group calmly walked down the slope to get away from what was so terrifying.

http://forum.dyatlovpass.com/index.php?topic=29.0


 

[Nigel Evans]

So the point of this thread is to try to establish if there could be a simple “normal “ explanation by considering any simple options.

I am not trying to rule out other theories which are well represented in other threads. But is it possible to explain DPI using simple explanations? The interesting bit is if an exhaustive consideration of simple options there isn’t any that can explain it, or at least no simple explanation that is credible.

So- is there a simple explanation for why they might have left the tent with no footwear (other than Semyon, Thibo and Rustems single boot)?

Regards
Star man

Surely the reason the DPI is so fascinating is that it defies simple credible explanations?

[Loose}{Cannon]

Could some of the group simply got drunk on vodka and run down the slope bare foot.  The more sensible ones followed but it was too late by the time they found them?

As goes the DP case, nothing is simple.  Most of them were actually dressed quite warm, minus two individuals that had their clothing salvaged.  For instance, several had on their valenki boots which would be the warmest footwear they had.  Their valenki boots were fur-lined wool that was dry compared to their single layer leather boots that were soaked to the bone.


AUTOPSY REPORT OF RUSTEM SLOBODIN

The body is clothed as follows: a black cotton sweater. Under this is a checked shirt with black and red squares buttoned with three buttons and the cuffs each buttoned with two buttons. The checked shirt has a left pocket fastened with a safety pin. In the pocket is a passport with the name SLOBODIN Rustem Vladimirovich, 310 rubles (one 100 note, four 50 notes and 10 rubles) and a fountain pen with ink. In between the checked shirt and the sweater are two insoles from boots. Under the checked shirt is a warm undershirt and a fleece sweatshirt fastened with two buttons. Under this is a blue knitted shirt with long arms. Warm ski pants fasted with a button and a belt. In the pockets are a pack of matches with 48 matches, a pocket knife on a long string, a comb in a case, two pieces of string and a pencil, and a cotton sock. Under these are satin sports pants, in the back pocket of which is a letter from the trade union committee dated 20 January 1959. Under the sports pants are warm, grey, fleece long underwear fully buttoned/pair from (?) shirt. Under the long underwear are blue satin underpants with elastic. On the right leg is a black felt boot. Under the boot are cotton socks, and then grey woolen socks, a cotton sock, and a brown vigogne sock. The felt boot is missing from the left leg, but there are socks in the same order as the other leg.

   


Lets tally this up....

Head

1) wool ski hat

Upper body    

1) black cotton sweater. 
2) checked shirt with black and red squares   
3) Under the checked shirt is a warm undershirt
4) and a fleece sweatshirt fastened with two buttons
5) Under this is a blue knitted shirt with long arms

Lower body

1) Warm ski pants fasted with a button and a belt
2)  Under these are satin sports pants
3) Under the sports pants are warm, grey, fleece long underwear fully buttoned
4) Under the long underwear are blue satin underpants with elastic


Feet

1) On the right leg is a black felt boot
2) Under the boot are cotton socks
3) then grey woolen socks
4) a cotton sock
5) and a brown vigogne sock

The felt boot is missing from the left leg, but there are socks in the same order as the other leg.



So.......

ONE wool hat, FIVE upper garments, FOUR lower garments, FIVE socks, and One fur-lined wool boot.  Does this sound like someone that slashed their way out of a tent in a panic in their underwear?
 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

[Nigel Evans]

The most precise explanation is an enforcing force. There is no other explanation for this incident. Look at the surveillance cuts in the tent. This is definitive evidence of the existence of an external force. This power can be human. But injuries to the snow lair are not what people can do. I mean, there's a compelling force outside of people. That's for sure. And this power could have fired the young men out of the tent immediately. But then the young people decided to go back to the tent rather than die from the cold. Then this forced force must have decided to attack.        THE MAN FROM ANOTHER WORLD*
Always domineering physically and psychologically, he can induce terror, stupefaction, and panic. Some say he has control over fog and wind. Telepathic phenomena are also common. Oftentimes the Kompolen melts into thin air, leaving no traces on the soil or the snow.

Among numerous evidences collected by Koshmanova only few tell of people being mutilated or killed by the Kompolen.

The Russian historian N. M. Karamzin brings up a legend about a forest giant “who would grab ten or more people with his hand so that they could not take him alive…” In 1946, in the village of Shamya, a forest man killed a child, ripping him to shreds, and put his head on a stake. Koshmanova relates a story where a “forest spirit” killed a woman by ripping out her lower jaw.

Despite his sometimes monstrous size, pointed skull and the thick short hair covering his body and face, the Mansi never refer to “the Host” as an animal. “This is a person; however,” say the Mansi, “he is from another world.”

“It was the night of February 1st, 1959”. Despite such an epic prologue, the book of the Mansi author Olga Koshmanova, Staring at the Back, makes no mention of the Dyatlov Incident, not even in passing. By a strange coincidence, that very night the author had met “the Host” in a remote village in the Ural taiga. That encounter inspired her almost 50-year-long quest for evidence of this “forest spirit”.

According to the natives’ belief, being in close proximity to “the Host” often comes with a blend of tactile, visual and mental sensations described with the concept of “mayachit*”. The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”. The Mansi put their altars at the borders of those places.

Quite often, such locations will coincide with areas of electromagnetic anomalies.

Once in the forbidden territory, people start to hear things: whistles, stamping of the feet, and shouts - at times so shrilly as to cause vomit. If trespassers do not heed the warning, the Host may appear in the flesh.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world

"The most precise explanation is an enforcing force."Absolutely priceless one of the best comments i've seen on this board. 
What happened to superman?
Joking aside, what about not another world but a man from another time? - https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2012/11/cases-of-time-slips/
Google "time slip phenomena"

[Loose}{Cannon]

AUTOPSY REPORT OF KOLMOGOROVA

The body is dressed as follows: on the head is a red wool hat tied at the chin with a bow. Under the hat is a blue knitted hat attached to the hair with a clip. A blue wool sweater worn on the left with the left cuff torn. Under this is a cotton checked shirt with long sleeves and one closed left pocket; the left sleeve is closed at the cuff. The color of the checked shirt is black, green with red squares. Under the checked shirt on the left side of the chest is a military style defensive mask. Under the checked shirt is a light red woolen sweater worn on the left side with a light red to blue transverse stripe. On the left and right sleeves are two patches, one made from a brown sock and the other from blue cotton fabric. A knitted shirt with long blue arms. A black satin brassiere fastened with two buttons. Baize ski sport pants with a buckle on the hip and closed buttons. At the bottom, the cuffs of the pants are not buttoned; there are three tears on the right pant leg with a depth of 0.5 cm, 1.2 cm, and 0.3 cm. Blue cotton sports pants with (illegible) internal pockets, the buckles on the hips are unbuttoned. In the right pocket is a brown comb with two broken teeth. In the (illegible) pocket there is a black shoestring. At the bottom of the (illegible) on elastic. Knitted women’s fleece leggings of an indeterminable color. Black ladies cotton tights with elastic. Swimming trunks with a four-button closure. On the legs are brown wool (illegible) with fur insoles; under them are blue and brown woolen socks.

Head

1) red wool hat tied at the chin with a bow
2) blue knitted hat attached to the hair with a clip
3) military style defensive mask (NOT ON HEAD)


Upper Body

1) A blue wool sweater
2) Under this is a cotton checked shirt with long sleeves
3) Under the checked shirt is a light red woolen sweater
4) A knitted shirt with long blue arms
5) A black satin brassiere fastened with two buttons


Lower body

1) Baize ski sport pants with a buckle on the hip and closed buttons
2) Blue cotton sports pants
3) Knitted women’s fleece leggings
4) Black ladies cotton tights with elastic
5) Swimming trunks with a four-button closure


Feet

1)  blue woolen socks
2)  brown woolen socks
3)  brown wool (illegible) with fur insoles (Fur-lined Valenki boots)



See where I'm going with this?

There is a reason why I roll my eyes and face-palm my forehead everytime I read about slashing their way out of the tent in their underwear.   

[Clacon]

Good point. I think they were cold in the tent without the stove to keep them warm and piled on the clothing for warmth. (See Aspen's posts)

I think the operative word that's missing here is that they were not wearing "protective" clothing i.e. those that protect you from exposure to the elements, outside of a shelter, when they exited the tent.
But I'm not sure if they had such gear back then (I mean compared to the outerwear we have now), though I guess foot protection, like shoes with soles, would be one of those items - which they obviously had.
So why didn't they put them on??

Because they weren't going to be out long
OR they were in a hurried panic and staying in the tent meant certain death (or so they thought)

If the tent being cut from the inside is highly disputed, then why aren't the "orderly" footprints??

[Loose}{Cannon]

though I guess foot protection, like shoes with soles, would be one of those items - which they obviously had

That were........ soaked through single layer leather.

Quoting myself now... 

  For instance, several had on their valenki boots which would be the warmest footwear they had.  Their valenki boots were fur-lined wool that was dry compared to their single layer leather boots that were soaked to the bone

.

I dont think people understand clearly....  hand made valenki boots have been worn with NO socks in the COLDEST of conditions for HUNDREDS of years.  Its just a fact. 

[cennetkusu]

The most precise explanation is an enforcing force. There is no other explanation for this incident. Look at the surveillance cuts in the tent. This is definitive evidence of the existence of an external force. This power can be human. But injuries to the snow lair are not what people can do. I mean, there's a compelling force outside of people. That's for sure. And this power could have fired the young men out of the tent immediately. But then the young people decided to go back to the tent rather than die from the cold. Then this forced force must have decided to attack.THE MAN FROM ANOTHER WORLD*
Always domineering physically and psychologically, he can induce terror, stupefaction, and panic. Some say he has control over fog and wind. Telepathic phenomena are also common. Oftentimes the Kompolen melts into thin air, leaving no traces on the soil or the snow.

Among numerous evidences collected by Koshmanova only few tell of people being mutilated or killed by the Kompolen.

The Russian historian N. M. Karamzin brings up a legend about a forest giant “who would grab ten or more people with his hand so that they could not take him alive…” In 1946, in the village of Shamya, a forest man killed a child, ripping him to shreds, and put his head on a stake. Koshmanova relates a story where a “forest spirit” killed a woman by ripping out her lower jaw.

Despite his sometimes monstrous size, pointed skull and the thick short hair covering his body and face, the Mansi never refer to “the Host” as an animal. “This is a person; however,” say the Mansi, “he is from another world.”

“It was the night of February 1st, 1959”. Despite such an epic prologue, the book of the Mansi author Olga Koshmanova, Staring at the Back, makes no mention of the Dyatlov Incident, not even in passing. By a strange coincidence, that very night the author had met “the Host” in a remote village in the Ural taiga. That encounter inspired her almost 50-year-long quest for evidence of this “forest spirit”.

According to the natives’ belief, being in close proximity to “the Host” often comes with a blend of tactile, visual and mental sensations described with the concept of “mayachit*”. The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”. The Mansi put their altars at the borders of those places.

Quite often, such locations will coincide with areas of electromagnetic anomalies.

Once in the forbidden territory, people start to hear things: whistles, stamping of the feet, and shouts - at times so shrilly as to cause vomit. If trespassers do not heed the warning, the Host may appear in the flesh.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-man-from-another-world

"The most precise explanation is an enforcing force."Absolutely priceless one of the best comments i've seen on this board. 
What happened to superman?
Joking aside, what about not another world but a man from another time? - https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2012/11/cases-of-time-slips/
Google "time slip phenomena"

Compelling power = Superman. They're both the same ... They're not different. And the different world = different time is already ... These are the same things.
But this power is not a god. The power should be limited, but it must have incredible power. And it should have many features .... For example, being invisible can be seen from afar as it can be heard and flew ....

[Clacon]

Valenki (Russian: ва́ленки, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnkʲɪ]; sg valenok (Russian: ва́ленок, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnək])) are traditional Russian winter footwear, essentially felt boots: the name valenok literally means "made by felting". Valenki are made of wool felt. They are not water-resistant, and are often worn with galoshes to keep water out and protect the soles from wear and tear.

But okay, I get your point, they were dressed warmly. Are you implying then that they perhaps went out to look at something with the intent of coming back to the tent?

[Nigel Evans]

Compelling power = Superman. They're both the same ... They're not different. And the different world = different time is already ... These are the same things.
But this power is not a god. The power should be limited, but it must have incredible power. And it should have many features .... For example, being invisible can be seen from afar as it can be heard and flew ....

I love the language with this, "The places where the Kompolen roams are called “spellbound”."

Finally, something took revenge upon the soldiers as well. Three privates went insane and were discharged after they met themselves coming up a hill.http://dyatlov.looo.ch/en/p/the-howler-2Tricky stuff, reality...

[Nigel Evans]

Valenki (Russian: ва́ленки, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnkʲɪ]; sg valenok (Russian: ва́ленок, IPA: [ˈvalʲɪnək])) are traditional Russian winter footwear, essentially felt boots: the name valenok literally means "made by felting". Valenki are made of wool felt. They are not water-resistant, and are often worn with galoshes to keep water out and protect the soles from wear and tear.

But okay, I get your point, they were dressed warmly. Are you implying then that they perhaps went out to look at something with the intent of coming back to the tent?

Surely that's just their nightwear? They just had a blanket each? How many layers/socks would you wear in bed?

[Loose}{Cannon]

I keep watching russian videos on youtube of Russians prancing around in snow wearing traditional non-soled valenki boots.   

[Monika]

Ball lightning is FAR from being the "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation"

Do you climb the tallest tree around in a lightning show?   I dont care what 'type' of lightning it is, your not going out in the woods with this guy.

Try and hang out with Monika perhaps...

Yes. If a plasmoid ball get me out of the tent and I walk 1.5 km into the forest, I would certainly climb a tree to see what happens around the tent and waiting  when the lighting thread dissapear. In the dark, the tent and its surrounding could be visible due to illumination. As lighting is only in the area around the tent I am not in danger on the tree due to distance .

[Loose}{Cannon]

I am not in danger on the tree

 




 

[Monika]

I am not in danger on the tree

 




 

No if I have a good warm gloves and I hold firmly

Seriously, it was not proven these two boys fall from the trees. And when they get on the tree they were despair and did not expected the danger from lighting.

[Clacon]

Nigel - are you asking me or Loose Cannon?

[Clacon]

Well, Monika - they are the only 2 who have recorded burns on their flesh, not just their clothes, so you may have a point.

I just always felt the burnt-out woodfire their bodies were found around had something to do with it?


This IS a "Simplest Possible Credible Explanation" thread, right? Lol ;)

[Nigel Evans]

Nigel - are you asking me or Loose Cannon?

Just making the point, not really asking anyone, but all comments welcome of course.

[Clacon]

Of course :)