What would Agatha Chrtistie ('s characters) say?

[Rtael]

I wish to hell I had a Miss Marple or a Hercule Poirot next to me for this one. Preferably Poirot....this case seems more up his ally.

First of all I have a bone to pick with LC - I don't believe the snow den was a fake! Whether the actual site was staged or not, I think the hikers did create that thatch of branches and it was to play some role in a shelter for them. I'm willing to concede the searchers may have staged the actual spot, but I believe it was at least part of some of the hikers' plans, successfully executed or not. I believe I even saw a quote on here from one of the searchers saying years afterward....the bodies and snow den were right next to each other, not meters apart as has been claimed in other places. I've seen pictures that dispute this as well....bodies seem to be a max 3-4 feet from the supposed snow den site, two holes in the snow right next to each other. If it was right on the river/stream....easy enough for them to have started off there and then melted downstream a couple feet in a couple months as things are melting and water is flowing.

I've read your 'exact spot' argument before....not sure why the searches couldn't/wouldn't have shaped the hole as they went down using their meat hooks to see where something was. The hole may not have started off in the exact right spot/shape but they easily could have developed that as they were digging down. It takes time/effort to dig a hole like that...I'm sure they were sounding it out as they went and shaping their efforts from there....hence why the final product looks 'too perfect.'

So...long story short the snow den WAS a thing for the hikers, whether the searchers uncovered it exactly right or not. I'd go so far as to say there was a den, and the ravine four were 'in' it when they died. Melting and stream effects pushed them a little downstream from it.

Everything that happens can pretty easily be explained in a very stupid, pathetic, calamitous series of unfortunate events. It'd have to be quite a coincidental string of awful events but possible....except there's the extraordinary event of them leaving the tent in the first place which is very, very difficult to explain (IMO, and I'm sure many others). Pretty obviously the sequence of pathetic, calamitous events has to be connected to the initial extraordinary event - chance and coincidence only extend so far. If you accept the deaths of the hikers as unfortunate fate, that fate can only be extrinsically intertwined with the initial catalyst or your asking for too much coincidence in one place. I rule out infrasound, avalanche, and katabatic winds for this reason. Any one of them can POSSIBLY explain the initial abandoning of the tent, but I don't see how any of them or even any combination of them could also naturally result in the ensuing helter-skelter.

When I channel dear old Agatha, she tells me the crux of the solution lies in the differing states of undress of the hikers. All of them were under-dressed. Some of them were more so than the others (even before their corpses were stripped and looted). I think establishing the exact initial state of each hikers' clothing situation would be very instructive on how events played out. Considering the absolute necessity of proper attire for survival...the fact that any of them were under-dressed is telling. The fact that all of them apparently started out in extremely varied states of dress/undress....I feel that somehow has to be determinative. Just haven't figured out how yet. ;)

The yeti photo was clearly one of them doing a riff off the recurring joke in the Otorten newsletter.

The photos in Symeon's camera were ruined, not extraterrestrials or bombs or....your mom.

While the two Yuris almost certainly died before the Ravine 4....that's not a given. Never trust anything you hear. It seems most likely, but it isn't necessary from any data we have so far. The 3 on the slope....might have all been coming, might have all been going, or might be some mixture thereof. Doesn't help you to get stuck in any mode of thought on that.

Another very critical factor (very difficult to establish) is when did this event start? Were they just setting up camp? Already in for the night? Was the food in their stomachs found by the coroner lunch or dinner?

I dunno I guess that's all I have for now. Main take-aways: the snow den did exist; and if we knew exactly what state of dress and what time of day/where in their routine they were when the event happened, I think we could deduce the sequence of events from that.

[Nigel Evans]

I'd vote that the den was real and there's even evidence that they put out the camp fire before retreating to it. I'm not concerned with the distance of the bodies from it as the force of the water is clearly very strong (from the photos) and could have carried them 60 metres from the den if there was room under the ice.
I struggle with the idea that the plane photos are due to random damage, Plane 2 looks like a snowstorm with a couple of flecks of snow having landed on the lens and melting. Some coincidence.
I don't get the "state of dress" argument, two of them were dressed for the outside and the rest for settling down for the night?
From memory there were signs of some meat consumption so dinner beats lunch.

[neni_cesty_zpet]

Tell me, what compelling natural force can cause wounds like crushed rigs?

Some kind of Tornado? Can it 'catch you', rotate, lift few meters above ground and release (free fall) ?
Is it possible that tornado was there and left no visible traces like damaged trees?

Ok, cannot explain tent cuts and suddent escape.

But what if tents 'cuts' are not common cuts made by knife for purpose of group survival, but something else made with external force?

Churkina said that these 'cuts' were made from inside. But isn't this a cover-up?
I read that Churkina did not talk much about this accident like she knew something more ...

This may be leading us to wrong conclusions...

[Nigel Evans]

Tell me, what compelling natural force can cause wounds like crushed rigs?

Some kind of Tornado? Can it 'catch you', rotate, lift few meters above ground and release (free fall) ?
Is it possible that tornado was there and left no visible traces like damaged trees?
The ravine would have been full of snow from the onset of winter, maybe September, definitely October? They were found under 3.5m of snow. So they died under the snow or were placed there by others (human or not). So if you're not into the "others" theories then they died in the den under the snow. So that leaves little option but death by crushing which is a good fit for the position of the bodies and their injuries. But either way they didn't end up under 3.5m of snow from natural forces like wind.

Ok, cannot explain tent cuts and suddent escape.

But what if tents 'cuts' are not common cuts made by knife for purpose of group survival, but something else made with external force?

Churkina said that these 'cuts' were made from inside. But isn't this a cover-up?
I read that Churkina did not talk much about this accident like she knew something more ... She worked for the government forensic laboratory so would have been bound by the rules. The pathologist never discussed the case. Ivanov and Okishev stated during glasnost (30+ years after the event) that they were ordered to front a cover of death from freezing until the ravine bodies were discovered in May. When that clearly didn't apply it became unknown compelling force and the case was closed unsolved.

This may be leading us to wrong conclusions...

[MDGross]

I read somewhere that about 75% of victims caught in an avalanche die of suffocation. Only 25% by blunt force trauma. So snow falling 6 or 8 feet into the snow den would not cause such fatal injuries. They had to have died from blunt force trauma some other way. Perhaps they dug two snow dens that night. The first one was into the ravine, but they uncovered large rocks that made it unusable. Then they dug the second one that they did use. At some point, they climbed out of the den and walked back to the first one. Maybe trying to find something. But the snow was treacherous and gave way. They fell into the ravine and suffered severe injuries. Just speculation...I'm brainstorming with myself.

[Naufragia]

Going with the post's title, Hercule Poirot would say that the answer lay in the pyschology of the people involved. Miss Marple would draw conclusions from similar situations or personalities she had encountered.

I think Rtael's comment sums things up very well:

Everything that happens can pretty easily be explained in a very stupid, pathetic, calamitous series of unfortunate events. It'd have to be quite a coincidental string of awful events but possible....except there's the extraordinary event of them leaving the tent in the first place which is very, very difficult to explain (IMO, and I'm sure many others). Pretty obviously the sequence of pathetic, calamitous events has to be connected to the initial extraordinary event - chance and coincidence only extend so far.

[Ian Jones]

I agree.  I can't think of a single naturally occurring event, which would make them leave the tent and walk away, without any food, equipment, or adequate clothing.
Surely, if they were in such a panic, they would have been running, or a t least some of them would, but the footprints say otherwise.

[Nigel Evans]

I agree.  I can't think of a single naturally occurring event, which would make them leave the tent and walk away, without any food, equipment, or adequate clothing.
Surely, if they were in such a panic, they would have been running, or a t least some of them would, but the footprints say otherwise.

The likely scenario was that it was dark and the ground although snow covered was stony and they were in their socks and there was a decent incline,  steeper in places and they were probably in a snow storm (whiteout at night = blackout?). If they died on the descent (which is my preference) then Zina, Rustem and Igor collected those injuries along the way. I like the idea that YuriK collected his burnt leg as well and YuriD helped him with an arm over his shoulder (there's a little evidence here with the footstep photos showing something dragged over the snow like a foot perhaps).
There's a lot of ifs and maybes in the above but one thing is fairly certain. They weren't going to be running....

[Monty]

Panic = running, which the footprints suggest wasn't the case.
In awe = walking steadily, which the footprints suggest was the case.
Perhaps whatever the footprints were in awe of took place in the trees. However we don't know for sure the prints belong to the group but it's a strong possibility.

[Ian Jones]

Nigel.  Weren't the clothes that Zina was wearing, indicate that she was present at the cedar?

If I had to clear out of a situation like theirs, I would have wanted to grab everything I could...even if it wasn't mine...just grab all the coats, boots and food...we can sort it out later.  (They did take a torch)

The group's seemingly un-rushed walk away from their tent doesn't add up.
And...if they were dazed and confused, how did they have the presence of mind to make the decision to leave?

[Nigel Evans]

Nigel.  Weren't the clothes that Zina was wearing, indicate that she was present at the cedar?Not to my knowledge.

If I had to clear out of a situation like theirs, I would have wanted to grab everything I could...even if it wasn't mine...just grab all the coats, boots and food...we can sort it out later.  (They did take a torch)My favourite theory is noxious rocket fuel which could have blinded them, another case for walking. Reasonable to say they would leave very quick. Torch was probably already outside with Semyon/Nicolai. They left another on the tent perhaps indicating a hurry.

The group's seemingly un-rushed walk away from their tent doesn't add up.You don't sprint down a stony/snowy hill in the middle of the night? If the snow isn't deep there are rocks, if the snow is deep each step is an effort.And...if they were dazed and confused, how did they have the presence of mind to make the decision to leave?From memory Tempalov? stated that the footsteps indicated that they might have gathered in a line shortly outside the tent. And the footsteps indicate facing in the reverse direction suggesting they weren't just fleeing.

[Ian Jones]

Nigel.  Weren't the clothes that Zina was wearing, indicate that she was present at the cedar?Not to my knowledge.

The Cedar.  Maslennikov. 'we found the cuff of a dark sweater there,'
 
Death.  Zinaida.  ' sweater with torn cuff of the right sleeve'

A cuff from a sweater is found at the cedar, and Zinaida is found wearing a sweater with the cuff missing.  It's only a thought, but if the two are one of the same, then Zinaida was at the cedar tree.

It's then possible that the cuff was ripped from her sleeve whilst she was fighting....maybe..?

[Nigel Evans]

Nigel.  Weren't the clothes that Zina was wearing, indicate that she was present at the cedar?Not to my knowledge.

The Cedar.  Maslennikov. 'we found the cuff of a dark sweater there,'
 
Death.  Zinaida.  ' sweater with torn cuff of the right sleeve'

A cuff from a sweater is found at the cedar, and Zinaida is found wearing a sweater with the cuff missing.  It's only a thought, but if the two are one of the same, then Zinaida was at the cedar tree.

It's then possible that the cuff was ripped from her sleeve whilst she was fighting....maybe..?

Some thorough detective work there!
However the cuff found at the cedar is grey and the autopsy describes Zinaida's garment as - " A blue wool sweater worn on the left with the left cuff torn".

N.B. "torn" does not equal "torn off".

[Ian Jones]

Thanks Nigel, you got me again....I think...

[Ian Jones]

......but wait a moment.  a new post from Teddy, 'Injuries,clothing and belongings',  states...

Kolmogorova belongings...
- Blue wool sweater, the left cuff is torn off,

Nigel.  Do the clothes recovered from the group still exist?

[Nigel Evans]

......but wait a moment.  a new post from Teddy, 'Injuries,clothing and belongings',  states...

Kolmogorova belongings...
- Blue wool sweater, the left cuff is torn off,

Nigel.  Do the clothes recovered from the group still exist?

Well both Teddy's and Svetlana Oss's translation of the autopsy state torn not torn off but I have no value to add as I don't speak Russian. Maybe WAB, anyone else, LC's relatives?

I don't know about the clothes still existing. YuriD's mother kept his sweater for many years so presumably the belongings were returned to the relatives.

[Nigel Evans]

But hibinaud  - https://sites.google.com/site/hibinaud/home/akt-issledovania-trupa-kolmogorovoj
States "a blue wool sweater, the left cuff is torn off, dressed on the left side,"So far, 3 translations give torn, 1 gives torn off.

[Marchesk]

If Zina's cuff was torn off at the Cedar tree, what would cause that other than a fight? Could it have been torn off removing it from one of the Yuri's?

[sparrow]

Marchesk, I think that the cuff found at the cedar was a different color from Zina's sweater (blue).  If I remember right, the cuff they found was gray.