I think that in the Chivruay incident the main factor is weather that change rapidly and beyond any expectations. But of course there are other factors that make it tragic too.
Most of the day they was hiking in the Chivruay valley, they were hidden from wind and probably the wind wasn't strong till afternoon or evening. After they walk over the Chivruay Pass and the wind was picking up they not expected it will be that strong till it was too late.
The meteo station reported wind of 150km/h, up in mountains was for sure more, and generally with wind over 100km/h you are not able to walk. The temperature was reported -28C at night and down in valley so even if at the evening was -20C in mountains together with wind of 100km/h windchill (temperature that you really feel) was -40C and with wind 150km/h windchill was -50C. They not expected something like that so wasn't ready for it at all.
So why they decided to go over the Chivruay Pass.
They was hiking few hours by the Chivruay valley in good weather, made the ascent of 300m vertical to Chivruay Pass, and only in this place they find out the weather is not perfect, there was 3 option:
- go back to Chivruay Valley - the only decision that could save them but they didn't know that yet, and because they just climbed up, nobody want go back there to do it again next day. As well they didn't think about returning because they wanted go with schedule, this is one of the problem with organized groups that you have schedule and you do no want to change it without serious reasons. This was very strong factor in making decisions about going ahead specially in Soviet Union where the route was officially approved, stamped, signed. You had plan and you should follow it, this is common factor with Chivruay Pass and Hamar-Daban tragedy. The weather wasn't that bad yet on Chivruay Pass so they decided go ahead.
-they could go straight down to Kuftuay River but the descent was 40-45 degrees so not possible to do on snow with heavy backpacks without crampons, specially with 4 novice hikers
-take the easy descent by exposed to wind and without fast escape route.
Another problem in decision taking, in this case was a fact that there was 2 leaders(two joined groups) so non of them wanted to take the decision about going back, they look on each other and feel that situation is under control.
So as they decided to go ahead, it was even harder to decide about return even if the weather start worsening. They was going up to the wind so they could relativity easy turn around and go back to Chivruay Pass(going with the wind is much easier) but as the wind increase and temperature dropped that they start suffer from hypothermia and before making the critical decision about return (it wasn't too late yet) one of the members collapsed, wasn't able to walk anymore. This is why they decided to stop and go into the tent. The other 5 more experienced members went to check other possibilities of descent but never returned. At this point the only possible chance to survive for some of them was to return immediately to Chivruay Pass and down to Chivruay Valley. They couldn't survive in this place where was the tent or anywhere around. Even if they will stay all together, they will die, the temperature windchill was below -50C. But again, they didn't know that such a strong wind is coming.
Is hard to blame any of the leaders for what happened there, they die because it was something as "perfect storm". Something similar to tragedy on Everest in 1996 or Peak Lenina in 1974 (nice article, worth of reading: https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/01/sport/russian-climbers-peak-lenin-spt-intl/