Simple, Complex or Something In Between

[MDGross]

It seems our brains are hard wired to prefer middle-of-the-road complexity over simplicity. Simple solutions are not as challenging or stimulating as more complicated ones. Perhaps the DPI is a good example. Here's one possible, albeit simple, scenario: The hikers dig a large trench on the mountain slope to pitch the tent. Later, the two guys standing outside believe they hear the snow surface above cracking, perhaps as the result of digging the trench. The two walk to where they think they heard the cracking sound and see where a slab of snow is starting to slide. In the strong wind and snow, they hurry back to the tent and shout for the others to get out of the tent immediately. There's an urgent warning in the sound of their shouts. The nine hikers begin the perilous walk down to the forest, where they can find protection. Slobodin falls and injures his skull, gets up and soon suffers another injury to his head when he falls again. He takes a few more steps and collapses. He is the first to die. When the others reach the trees, the two Yuris have started to shiver. A fire is built for them, but doesn't save them. After a brief discussion, Igor and Zina set out for the tent with the intention of collecting coats and shoes for themselves and the others. But the weather conditions are too brutal and they really never had a chance. In the meantime, the other four decide to scoop out a snow den. But part of it sits over a small stream that has weakened the snow. That part of the den collapses throwing the four onto rocks in the ravine below. Kolevatov is the only one not seriously injured and attempts with what strength he has left to pull the others to safety. But, he too can't survive the extreme cold.

Is this overly simplistic? Probably so; it certainly leaves questions unanswered. But what if the solution is something as simple as this. Maybe there's a part of us that says that's not possible. It's far too simple. The question arises: Are we making this case more complicated than it is? Wonder if there was no infrasound, exploding missiles, ball lightning, murder, execution, a smoke-filled tent, Yetis, UFOs and so forth. In my opinion, the chances of any of those happening are less likely than a simpler scenario. Not fascinating or intriguing at all, but maybe closer to the truth of what really happened.

[Monty]

Yes. Discount ones own theory and that is what probably happened. But then, for instance, why would the coldest climb a cedar tree?

[KFinn]

It seems our brains are hard wired to prefer middle-of-the-road complexity over simplicity. Simple solutions are not as challenging or stimulating as more complicated ones. Perhaps the DPI is a good example. Here's one possible, albeit simple, scenario: The hikers dig a large trench on the mountain slope to pitch the tent. Later, the two guys standing outside believe they hear the snow surface above cracking, perhaps as the result of digging the trench. The two walk to where they think they heard the cracking sound and see where a slab of snow is starting to slide. In the strong wind and snow, they hurry back to the tent and shout for the others to get out of the tent immediately. There's an urgent warning in the sound of their shouts. The nine hikers begin the perilous walk down to the forest, where they can find protection. Slobodin falls and injures his skull, gets up and soon suffers another injury to his head when he falls again. He takes a few more steps and collapses. He is the first to die. When the others reach the trees, the two Yuris have started to shiver. A fire is built for them, but doesn't save them. After a brief discussion, Igor and Zina set out for the tent with the intention of collecting coats and shoes for themselves and the others. But the weather conditions are too brutal and they really never had a chance. In the meantime, the other four decide to scoop out a snow den. But part of it sits over a small stream that has weakened the snow. That part of the den collapses throwing the four onto rocks in the ravine below. Kolevatov is the only one not seriously injured and attempts with what strength he has left to pull the others to safety. But, he too can't survive the extreme cold.

Is this overly simplistic? Probably so; it certainly leaves questions unanswered. But what if the solution is something as simple as this. Maybe there's a part of us that says that's not possible. It's far too simple. The question arises: Are we making this case more complicated than it is? Wonder if there was no infrasound, exploding missiles, ball lightning, murder, execution, a smoke-filled tent, Yetis, UFOs and so forth. In my opinion, the chances of any of those happening are less likely than a simpler scenario. Not fascinating or intriguing at all, but maybe closer to the truth of what really happened.

This is kind of why I'm working on a plausibility scale for all of the theories, rather than just focusing myself on one theory.  I know my brain and if I try to narrow down to one, I stand the chance of not wanting to learn and evolve when new information comes out.  (Human nature tends toward only looking at evidence that validates our beliefs and I don't want to box myself in to that and risk not evolving my understandings as I learn.)  Simple theories are certainly in the higher plausibility for me because they take a lot less moving parts to get from point A-nine healthy hikers camped in a tent to point B-nine dead hikers with physical injuries across a broad spectrum.

However, in learning about the more complex theories, I'm learning about things other than just this incident; chemistry, biology, geography, cultures I am not as familiar with.  I think there is still plenty of value in that.  We have a case study that, admittedly, we could all totally be off base about or we could be completely over thinking every minute detail (and we do...)  But, its still a valuable learning experience and these sorts of mysteries are bringing us all together here to talk and share and learn beyond just the scope of the deaths. 

Honestly, I'm not necessarily looking for the one true answer.  I'm looking for me; I lost my curiosity and insatiable desire for learning and Dyatlov has brought those things back to me.  My largely pragmatic side says yes, it was a simple, tragic event.  But my academic side is relishing the complex theories because of the intrinsic value and the excitement of reading about a theory that seems so crazy and yet.... 

From the standpoint of this thread, I like simple.  I prefer it.  Juries prefer a simple set of circumstances tied nicely with a bow, easily digestible.  I highly appreciate simple.  One side of me will always argue this has a simple answer.  The other side will still argue but the ball lightning!  But the tent!  But the cover up!! 

I'm no help, I know, lol. 

[Nigel Evans]

Einstein - as simple as possible but no simpler :)
Okishev stated that there was a coverup from day 1 = (autopsies record cause of death as hypothermia even though Rustem had a fractured skull and internal bleeding (which was what probably killed him), YuriK bit the skin off his hand and then died before it could leave his mouth.). Klinov is mentioned as attending all first five autopsies, n.b. he is not mentioned in the last four which seems to rule out it being a formality to include him. So the head of the Sverdlovsk Prosecutors office really did attend? For what purpose other than to ensure that orders were carried out? So Moscow instructed "death by hypothermia" and Klinov ensured it happened and left Okishev and Ivanov to face angry relatives shouting WTF?
Some things defy simplicity?

[sarapuk]

It seems our brains are hard wired to prefer middle-of-the-road complexity over simplicity. Simple solutions are not as challenging or stimulating as more complicated ones. Perhaps the DPI is a good example. Here's one possible, albeit simple, scenario: The hikers dig a large trench on the mountain slope to pitch the tent. Later, the two guys standing outside believe they hear the snow surface above cracking, perhaps as the result of digging the trench. The two walk to where they think they heard the cracking sound and see where a slab of snow is starting to slide. In the strong wind and snow, they hurry back to the tent and shout for the others to get out of the tent immediately. There's an urgent warning in the sound of their shouts. The nine hikers begin the perilous walk down to the forest, where they can find protection. Slobodin falls and injures his skull, gets up and soon suffers another injury to his head when he falls again. He takes a few more steps and collapses. He is the first to die. When the others reach the trees, the two Yuris have started to shiver. A fire is built for them, but doesn't save them. After a brief discussion, Igor and Zina set out for the tent with the intention of collecting coats and shoes for themselves and the others. But the weather conditions are too brutal and they really never had a chance. In the meantime, the other four decide to scoop out a snow den. But part of it sits over a small stream that has weakened the snow. That part of the den collapses throwing the four onto rocks in the ravine below. Kolevatov is the only one not seriously injured and attempts with what strength he has left to pull the others to safety. But, he too can't survive the extreme cold.

Is this overly simplistic? Probably so; it certainly leaves questions unanswered. But what if the solution is something as simple as this. Maybe there's a part of us that says that's not possible. It's far too simple. The question arises: Are we making this case more complicated than it is? Wonder if there was no infrasound, exploding missiles, ball lightning, murder, execution, a smoke-filled tent, Yetis, UFOs and so forth. In my opinion, the chances of any of those happening are less likely than a simpler scenario. Not fascinating or intriguing at all, but maybe closer to the truth of what really happened.

Well my Brain certainly isnt hardwired to anything. I look at the Evidence that we have and the facts. And the reason that this great mystery has not yet been solved is because of a lack of Evidence and facts. Plenty of speculation from Members of this Forum.