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Dyatlov Pass Forum

Author Topic: My theory  (Read 7166 times)

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March 05, 2021, 11:08:18 AM
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tenne

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After doing quite a bit, although not nearly as much as a lot of other people, of research, I have decided to my own satisfaction what happened. Of course, very few will agree with it and that's just fine as well because we don't know and most likely never will.

Igor was very vague about his planned route and I think that started some suspicion on the part of the authorities. When he hadn't filed a final route, they pulled Slavaka out of the party and inserted Zolotaryov.

Lyudia's diary: At first nobody wanted this Zolotaryov, for he is a stranger, but then we all agreed, because you can't refuse. Thus, as we were ten, and remained ten, for Slavka was not released by the faculty bureau.

I think they did it for a few reasons. Aleksander was being groomed by the KGB, or higher, and the powers that be wanted Zolotaryov to both keep an eye on him to see how he handled himself and to protect him if it came down to it.

I believe the tent was folded up when warm and carried on skis behind them, which worked just fine on flat, hard snow

Jan 28   Yuri Yudin goes back with the sled due to poor health (sciatica), the group now consist of 9 members
they spend the night on the banks of Lozva river

Morning of Jan 29, they realize they can't fold the tent up that small, being frozen, heavy canvas and its too heavy for one person to carry and the ski sled doesn't work in deep snow. (which is why sleds are off the ground to carry stuff, a big heavy tent on skis would be like pulling a snowplow.

So the group decided to just stay there, fake their diaries and pretend the trip had happened. I believe they took a few trips skiing around that area, no way they would just sit there and took some photos to try to fake the trip.

Because it was a sensitive military area and there were worries about people escaping Russia over the borders I think there was an incident with the military attacking them with a explosive device, either thinking they were deserters or escapees or spies.

Then the military realized they had killed 9 students who had been given permission to go through the area (although they were not supposed to be there at that time) and killed two KGB agents.

The helicopter(s) carrying the bodies, tent and back packs dropped them and men off because it was an isolated, deserted place that would have few witnesses but on a possible route. Crime scene was faked and the military men skied back to civilization, those are the tracks they "followed"

So the military covered it up, to hide they had killed KGB agents.

I talked to an old trapper and an ex military soldier from South Africa who had experience with those big heavy canvas tents and they, and friends they talked to, said NO WAY! a frozen canvas tent can be folded up that small and carried by one man on his back.

so for better or worse, I'm happy with it

modified to add: I didn't realize that this would make people think I wasn't interested in feed back. I am certainly willing to listen to anything (other than insulting people because they are not university educated). I am happy with my idea, doesn't mean its right or it can't be corrected or more added to it.

« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 05:49:15 AM by tenne »
 

March 05, 2021, 11:45:13 AM
Reply #1
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KFinn


My only question would be, how did all of the other hiking groups in the area that week carry their tents without sleds?  We know the other groups didn't stay in one spot; Atmanaki's group traveled through the Mansi settlement, the Rostov Pedagogical group traveled through various spots, Karelin and Blinov's groups were in the area, the Sverdlovsk Pedagogical group...
-Ren
 

March 05, 2021, 11:53:08 AM
Reply #2
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sarapuk

Case-Files Achievement Recipient
Well if your happy with your Theory thats fine. Many members in this Forum have their Theories.
DB
 

March 05, 2021, 11:53:16 AM
Reply #3

tenne

Guest
We don't know how big their tents were, how they pulled them or carried them (other groups). there is no mention of a sled in the inventory or in any of the photos for this trip. plus they had a stove and stove pipes they had to carry some how (Dyatlov group)
 

March 05, 2021, 11:54:48 AM
Reply #4

tenne

Guest
Well if your happy with your Theory thats fine. Many members in this Forum have their Theories.

Yup, but this is the only one that fills in all the gaps as far as I'm concerned. the helicopter(s) bringing in the bodies explains the lights that were seen
 

March 07, 2021, 05:49:46 AM
Reply #5
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Nigel Evans


 




this is believed to be a photo of the tent being carried?
 

March 07, 2021, 08:16:43 AM
Reply #6

tenne

Guest
yes it is believed to be that. The tent was a 10 man heavy canvas tent that according to people I know who used them and some in those conditions, there is no way it was carried like that. Frozen heavy canvas doesn't fold up that small. it might if done when warm but not in freezing weather and they calculated a minimum of 100lbs.

I think that photo is of someone carrying a large back pack. they had to do small trips around 1. because they were there to ski and 2. to make it look like they did carry the tent
 

March 07, 2021, 09:11:20 AM
Reply #7
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KFinn


yes it is believed to be that. The tent was a 10 man heavy canvas tent that according to people I know who used them and some in those conditions, there is no way it was carried like that. Frozen heavy canvas doesn't fold up that small. it might if done when warm but not in freezing weather and they calculated a minimum of 100lbs.

I think that photo is of someone carrying a large back pack. they had to do small trips around 1. because they were there to ski and 2. to make it look like they did carry the tent

I've folded 14 oz canvas in freezing conditions (A frame style tent, 12x12 foot, with a 6' ridge.)  I did not carry it myself because I'm small and weak lol, but three of our other members took turns. 

I think the reason I, myself, don't agree with this theory is that faking a hike for certification goes against everything in their natures (as far as the people who actually knew them.)  But, its not my theory, it is yours and you've said you are satisfied. 
-Ren
 

March 07, 2021, 09:33:24 AM
Reply #8

tenne

Guest
I don't know what gauge the canvas was for the hikers tent so I have no idea if your comparison would be valid or not. there are different weights of canvas. plus there was a heavy stove pipe and stove to carry.

I think that given their characters in that time and place it made sense. Given the need to get permission from everyone to do this, book the time off etc, there was a very good chance, if I read the rules for getting different levels right, that they would not get permission to do this again or for a very long time if they didn't do it then.

I think they planned on meeting the requirements the best they could on trips around the area. so while they didn't do the exact route, they would still do what was necessary, to the best of their ability.

Or they were not going to lie about what they did but having the time off to ski, they decided to stay and have a vacation.  They were young adults on a fun sking trip, they would enjoy the chance to ski and have a holiday



 

March 07, 2021, 10:24:19 AM
Reply #9
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Nigel Evans


yes it is believed to be that. The tent was a 10 man heavy canvas tent that according to people I know who used them and some in those conditions, there is no way it was carried like that. Frozen heavy canvas doesn't fold up that small. it might if done when warm but not in freezing weather and they calculated a minimum of 100lbs.

I think that photo is of someone carrying a large back pack. they had to do small trips around 1. because they were there to ski and 2. to make it look like they did carry the tent

Well we have the fact that the tent was used over several expeditions and a supporting photo. We know the tent needed constant repairs which supports a lightweight canvas so i'd say that's enough to dismiss your theory.
 

March 07, 2021, 10:56:02 AM
Reply #10
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Nigel Evans


Just doing some maths - https://dyatlovpass.com/1959-search?flp=1#the-tent
Gives me a floor area of (say) 2m x 4m = 8m. Times 4 for each side, a groundsheet and the end walls gives 32 sqm.
Using this site - https://www.esvocampingshop.com/en/customer-service/extra-en/tent-canvas/ as a guide gives 250gsm, so 4sqm = 1kg.

32 / 4 = 8kg.

So 8kg for the fabric, maybe 10kg? Multiply that 2 for wet fabric and you've got 16-20kg?
From memory the men's backpacks went up to 30kg?
 

March 07, 2021, 01:39:44 PM
Reply #11

tenne

Guest
These are much more modern textiles than were used back then. We don't know the weight of the canvas that they used  (dry weight)  but if you have ever camped in a tent in the winter, the tent canvas freezes pretty solid from the snow and the moisture inside the tent. so not only is it much heavier than the listed weights because its frozen, it also doesn't fold down.

That tent would have been a minimum estimated weight of 50kg, so well above the 30kg.

This is from people who camped in the winter in that time in northern ontario, fur trappers who used the old canvas tents. I trust their real life experiments more than a modern calculator.

Plus, they were hauling heavy stove pipes and a stove on top of the at least 110lbs tent. plus food, clothing, bedding, emergency supplies and they had one member drop out, which meant they to carry even more. One diary mentions the extra weight it would mean.

Aluminum was not yet popular for hiking supplies, the camping craze of the 1970's brought nylon tents and aluminum poles into the price range of more people.

What was the stove pipe and stove made of? those would add considerable weight
« Last Edit: March 07, 2021, 01:59:44 PM by tenne »
 

March 07, 2021, 02:49:16 PM
Reply #12
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Nigel Evans


These are much more modern textiles than were used back then. We don't know the weight of the canvas that they used  (dry weight)  but if you have ever camped in a tent in the winter, the tent canvas freezes pretty solid from the snow and the moisture inside the tent. so not only is it much heavier than the listed weights because its frozen, it also doesn't fold down.

That tent would have been a minimum estimated weight of 50kg, so well above the 30kg.

This is from people who camped in the winter in that time in northern ontario, fur trappers who used the old canvas tents. I trust their real life experiments more than a modern calculator.

Plus, they were hauling heavy stove pipes and a stove on top of the at least 110lbs tent. plus food, clothing, bedding, emergency supplies and they had one member drop out, which meant they to carry even more. One diary mentions the extra weight it would mean.

Aluminum was not yet popular for hiking supplies, the camping craze of the 1970's brought nylon tents and aluminum poles into the price range of more people.

What was the stove pipe and stove made of? those would add considerable weight


Modern tent canvas is 320gsm so 10kg dry weight (for 32sqm). I don't understand why canvas weaving in the 1950s would have been heavier?




The tent wouldn't have been freezing that day as the stove was in use. It occurs to me that this explains why they carried wood in the stove, to warm everything up in the morning, boots, outerwear, tent etc.




The stove was a bespoke design by that group so i think they understood the weight issue.
 

March 07, 2021, 03:02:35 PM
Reply #13

tenne

Guest
This is on thing that could be easily solved
buy a 1959 canvas tent, that big and use it in -20, then try to fold it and carry it. add the weight of the stove pipe and stove and let me know. The people I talked to, did things like that fur trapping back in the 1960's, in the winter. That's why I trust their real life experience more than calculation about modern materials on a website.

There are different weights of canvas, like cotton comes in different weights.

The only wood stoves for tents that I can find, and its hard not knowing exactly what theirs was made of etc, say at least 50-60lbs is the most common weight. I can't find any weight for the stove pipe.

"The next day on February 26th they discovered the tent on the slope of Kholat Syakhl in the Dyatlov Pass. Ironically Slobtsov was among those who actually helped to construct the tent three years earlier from two tents, making it longer and larger. He recognized it immediately"

so no, they didn't build it for the trip, they didn't have any experience with it. it was made for another trip that I know nothing about. whether it was for a summer trip or a sled was going to be on the trip it was built for.



« Last Edit: March 07, 2021, 03:22:13 PM by tenne »
 

March 07, 2021, 03:33:17 PM
Reply #14
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KFinn


This is on thing that could be easily solved
buy a 1959 canvas tent, that big and use it in -20, then try to fold it and carry it. add the weight of the stove pipe and stove and let me know. The people I talked to, did things like that fur trapping back in the 1960's, in the winter. That's why I trust their real life experience more than calculation about modern materials on a website.

There are different weights of canvas, like cotton comes in different weights.

The only wood stoves for tents that I can find, and its hard not knowing exactly what theirs was made of etc, say at least 50-60lbs is the most common weight. I can't find any weight for the stove pipe.

"The next day on February 26th they discovered the tent on the slope of Kholat Syakhl in the Dyatlov Pass. Ironically Slobtsov was among those who actually helped to construct the tent three years earlier from two tents, making it longer and larger. He recognized it immediately"

so no, they didn't build it for the trip, they didn't have any experience with it. it was made for another trip that I know nothing about. whether it was for a summer trip or a sled was going to be on the trip it was built for.

The tent and stove were both built for the sports club.  Both were used for hikes in both summer and winters, between 1957 and 1959.  I believe the stove continued to be used for winter hikes after, as it was returned to the university. 

There were plenty of other hikers who had hiked with that equipment during winters and had no problems.  None of the other students who were in the club, or the expert mountaineers brought in for the search, thought the equipment could not be used for winter; it was fine on other winter hikes.  I don't know why this one would suddenly be different.
-Ren
 

March 07, 2021, 03:50:41 PM
Reply #15

tenne

Guest
Well since this group is the only one that didn’t come back alive obviously there was a difference. But beyond that, being used for winter does mean being used for conditions like those. skiing on hard packed is totally different than skiing in deep snow, in trees etc.

We have no knowledge of what hikes it was used on, unless you know something that hasn't been posted and that is a possibility. we have no idea if it was pulled on sled, carried on the back or anything. I hope you are using hiking as interchangeable with cross country skiing in the winter because they are very different activities

Can you please point me to a source that shows that exact tent and stove being used by cross country ski trips, in the deep snow and up a mountain, and carried on the back
« Last Edit: March 07, 2021, 03:57:19 PM by tenne »
 

March 07, 2021, 03:58:47 PM
Reply #16
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Nigel Evans


This is on thing that could be easily solved
buy a 1959 canvas tent, that big and use it in -20, then try to fold it and carry it. it wouldn't be -20 if the stove was running?
add the weight of the stove pipe and stove and let me know. i doubt if the stove weighed 10kg, also it could be carried by someone else, it was a set of pipes and a drum that collapsed in The people I talked to, did things like that fur trapping back in the 1960's, in the winter. That's why I trust their real life experience more than calculation about modern materials on a website. and i bet they didn't build radios or work as nuclear engineers, the DP group were bright bunnies.

There are different weights of canvas, like cotton comes in different weights. yes and 320gsm seems to be the common weight for tent canvas

The only wood stoves for tents that I can find, and its hard not knowing exactly what theirs was made of etc, say at least 50-60lbs is the most common weight. I can't find any weight for the stove pipe. as above.

"The next day on February 26th they discovered the tent on the slope of Kholat Syakhl in the Dyatlov Pass. Ironically Slobtsov was among those who actually helped to construct the tent three years earlier from two tents, making it longer and larger. He recognized it immediately"

so no, they didn't build it for the trip, they didn't have any experience with it. it was made for another trip that I know nothing about. whether it was for a summer trip or a sled was going to be on the trip it was built for. i meant the UPI group including people like Slobtsov.
 

March 07, 2021, 05:15:28 PM
Reply #17

tenne

Guest
I am horrified that you are so arrogant as to dismiss the real life experiences of people who lives and living depended on them being able to survive in these conditions for entire seasons, working their trap  lines as "i bet they didn't build radios or work as nuclear engineers, the DP group were bright bunnies." i.e. university educated people who played in the snow.

They were not university educated, they were life educated and they made it through conditions that killed unprepared people.




 

March 07, 2021, 05:58:16 PM
Reply #18
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KFinn


Well since this group is the only one that didn’t come back alive obviously there was a difference. But beyond that, being used for winter does mean being used for conditions like those. skiing on hard packed is totally different than skiing in deep snow, in trees etc.

We have no knowledge of what hikes it was used on, unless you know something that hasn't been posted and that is a possibility. we have no idea if it was pulled on sled, carried on the back or anything. I hope you are using hiking as interchangeable with cross country skiing in the winter because they are very different activities

Can you please point me to a source that shows that exact tent and stove being used by cross country ski trips, in the deep snow and up a mountain, and carried on the back

This is an honest and sincere question.  If I collate this information for you, will it even make a difference?  You have stated that you are satisfied with your beliefs, regardless.  Will refuting your opinions with different information change anything?
-Ren
 

March 07, 2021, 06:05:39 PM
Reply #19
Online

RMK


I am horrified that you are so arrogant as to dismiss the real life experiences of people who lives and living depended on them being able to survive in these conditions for entire seasons, working their trap  lines as "i bet they didn't build radios or work as nuclear engineers, the DP group were bright bunnies." i.e. university educated people who played in the snow.
Nigel, I'm with tenne on this one.  Your casual dismissal of the lived experience of people who made their livelihood in the wilderness comes across as condescending and classist.  I trust you didn't mean it that way, and you were curt only because you were posting from your phone?

tenne, I am not (yet) satisfied with your theory.  But, if it's good enough for you, then why put up the effort to defend it, like a thesis, in front of strangers on the Internet?
 

March 07, 2021, 06:17:55 PM
Reply #20
Online

RMK


Well since this group is the only one that didn’t come back alive obviously there was a difference. But beyond that, being used for winter does mean being used for conditions like those. skiing on hard packed is totally different than skiing in deep snow, in trees etc.

We have no knowledge of what hikes it was used on, unless you know something that hasn't been posted and that is a possibility. we have no idea if it was pulled on sled, carried on the back or anything. I hope you are using hiking as interchangeable with cross country skiing in the winter because they are very different activities

Can you please point me to a source that shows that exact tent and stove being used by cross country ski trips, in the deep snow and up a mountain, and carried on the back

This is an honest and sincere question.  If I collate this information for you, will it even make a difference?  You have stated that you are satisfied with your beliefs, regardless.  Will refuting your opinions with different information change anything?
I say, go ahead and collate it if you're psyched to do so.  I'd certainly read whatever might result from your effort.  N.B. I am more interested in there being a summary of the available information relevant to the topic than I am in anything having to do with tenne's theory.
 

March 07, 2021, 07:54:12 PM
Reply #21
Offline

KFinn


Well since this group is the only one that didn’t come back alive obviously there was a difference. But beyond that, being used for winter does mean being used for conditions like those. skiing on hard packed is totally different than skiing in deep snow, in trees etc.

We have no knowledge of what hikes it was used on, unless you know something that hasn't been posted and that is a possibility. we have no idea if it was pulled on sled, carried on the back or anything. I hope you are using hiking as interchangeable with cross country skiing in the winter because they are very different activities

Can you please point me to a source that shows that exact tent and stove being used by cross country ski trips, in the deep snow and up a mountain, and carried on the back

This is an honest and sincere question.  If I collate this information for you, will it even make a difference?  You have stated that you are satisfied with your beliefs, regardless.  Will refuting your opinions with different information change anything?
I say, go ahead and collate it if you're psyched to do so.  I'd certainly read whatever might result from your effort.  N.B. I am more interested in there being a summary of the available information relevant to the topic than I am in anything having to do with tenne's theory.

As tenne initiated this thread, I don't want to go beyond what tenne is wanting.  Not everyone wants discussion and that is okay.  I want to respect their wishes, here. 
-Ren
 

March 08, 2021, 01:34:18 AM
Reply #22
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Nigel Evans


From the group diary - 31/01/59 - "Had a surprisingly good overnight, air is warm and dry, though it’s -18°C to -24°C. "

Q. But hang on, how can they pack their tent in those freezing conditions?
A. Ah the stove filled with wood is the solution.


Q. And what did they have at the ridge?
A. A stove filled with wood! So that's why it was filled with wood perhaps, to guarantee that they could break camp in the morning.

The tent and stove had served them well over that expedition and previous ones and it's puerile to keep arguing that the equipment couldn't have performed or was too heavy (because old timers say so) when it clearly did/wasn't. They knew what they were doing, Semyon was a WW2 vet and ski tourism instructor who would have calculated the risks even if the others couldn't. They were 10mins on skis from the forest, half an hour on foot. There is a case that they were maintaining a two man watch with both staying fully dressed as a precaution.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 03:04:41 AM by Nigel Evans »
 

March 08, 2021, 02:50:08 AM
Reply #23
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ash73


...So the group decided to just stay there, fake their diaries and pretend the trip had happened...

This scenario is not possible because they were required to doposit a letter in a cairn at the top of Mt Otorten.

The search team found one there from a previous Dyatlov hike, iirc.
 

March 08, 2021, 05:45:38 AM
Reply #24

tenne

Guest
I am more than happy for anyone to do anything, that isn't insulting the intelligence of people who lived their lives doing this. I like my theory but it is just that, I can't prove it any more than anyone else can prove theirs. if anyone comes up with something that can't be proved, i.e. they used that exact tent and stove in those exact conditions, then i have zero interest in listening until you can prove it. exactly I'm sure as people are saying about why I think they didn't go and where it happened and what happened. That is speculation for sure on my part.

But, this and numerous other forums have tried for years to make the scene fit the evidence. We can't. nothing explains them camping there, leaving the tent, walking down, lighting a fire in the cedars, leaving the cedars for a place that is worse (they could have easily built a wind screen around the cedars and there was firewood there) and nothing explains the injuries.

My theory looks outside the box that everyone seems to want to fit into that round hole.
 

March 08, 2021, 05:56:23 AM
Reply #25

tenne

Guest
...So the group decided to just stay there, fake their diaries and pretend the trip had happened...

This scenario is not possible because they were required to doposit a letter in a cairn at the top of Mt Otorten.

The search team found one there from a previous Dyatlov hike, iirc.

Good point. Then, IMO, they weren't planning on lying about it (or were going to say they forgot) but decided to stay and ski for their time off because it wasn't safe to camp like they had planned
 

March 08, 2021, 07:31:38 AM
Reply #26
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ash73


...if anyone comes up with something that can't be proved, i.e. they used that exact tent and stove in those exact conditions, then i have zero interest in listening until you can prove it...

There are pictures of the tent and stove being used above the treeline on previous hikes. But I have my doubts about the stove being tested in blizzard conditions on a mountain top; I read somewhere Igor was keen to test it, which does not equate with "proven". It's an interesting question whether the canvas would freeze, I don't know is all I can say... it would be interesting to test.

They were planning to be above the treeline for several days, returning along the ridge, so anyone questioning the logic of camping there has to also explain why they were returning that way. Also they would need enough wood for several nights. Their original planned route would have given them an opportunity to gather more wood before the ascent, which makes the apparent diversion to 1079 questionable.

« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 08:31:06 AM by ash73 »
 

March 08, 2021, 07:49:25 AM
Reply #27
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Nigel Evans


I'm not aware of any proof of "They were planning to be above the treeline for several days,"?
I can see a good case for a one night "hop" back down to the forest next to the foot of Ortorten and maybe the same on the return. They couldn't drink water without a campfire, plus no one would sleep well in those winds, so potentially dangerous to go for longer.
 

March 08, 2021, 07:59:32 AM
Reply #28
Online

RMK


...So the group decided to just stay there, fake their diaries and pretend the trip had happened...

This scenario is not possible because they were required to doposit a letter in a cairn at the top of Mt Otorten.

The search team found one there from a previous Dyatlov hike, iirc.
A search team found a note at the summit of Otorten, left there by a team from Moscow State University in 1956 (per Akselrod's testimony).
 

March 08, 2021, 08:27:52 AM
Reply #29
Offline

ash73


I'm not aware of any proof of "They were planning to be above the treeline for several days,"?
I can see a good case for a one night "hop" back down to the forest next to the foot of Ortorten and maybe the same on the return. They couldn't drink water without a campfire, plus no one would sleep well in those winds, so potentially dangerous to go for longer.

Yes that's possible, but it seems unlikely to me they'd want to concede altitude every night, and there's no way they'd put storage on the ridge if they were planning to camp in the trees.

Unfortunately the route plans don't have campsites on them. Maybe we could find out by looking at previous hikes to see what they did on other mountain routes.