Logical analysis of tent cuts

[Osi]

The character of the cuts in the tent; It provides logical evidence as to whether the tent was cut while it was intact or in ruins. You need to leave the tent urgently due to danger and you will cut the tent. Let's assume the side wall of the tent is 1.80 cm.
Imagine yourself in a tent.
1- You should make a wide vertical incision from top to bottom.
Or..
2-As a bad choice (90 cm upper part / 90 cm lower part of the tent) you make a horizontal cut from the bottom.
And
If you are in a collapsed tent; You will probably be in a lying position. In this case, you cannot make vertical cuts and the cut you will make will definitely be in the upper 90 cm section of the tent.
Now consider the tent.
The cuts are usually horizontal and at the top of the tent. This situation; They do not appear to be suitable for comfortable evacuation from a sturdy tent. But they are just right for a collapsed tent.

[GlennM]

Agreed

[GlennM]

Lets take the idea a bit further. We assume they cut themselves out of the tent which was collapsed in the middle. Once outside, a decision was made to leave the tent for the shelter of the forest a long distance away. They could have cut up the tent for individual shawls, but did not. They must have expected to return to the tent and either repair it or head for home. Since they took no provisions, we may assume they intended to return when conditions improved. That could mean waiting until sunrise or waiting out a gale.Either way, it seems clear that going to the woods was a short term solution driven by necessity. At the time, there was no need for skis since that would require dismantling the tent. They couldn't do that anyway. It is a process.

If, as some think, someone climbed the cedar as a lookout, they may have looked for the tent as well as evidence of any additional bulk movement of snow. Personally, I would just retrace my steps to get back to the tent.

[Osi]

After the calm and cautious meeting; After the plate hit the tent and flowed down, would they be able to regain it by cleaning and lifting the tent?
Yes.
 However, what psychologically convinces tourists to go to the forest is like the trauma experienced after a traffic accident. While some people continue driving the day after the accident, many people are afraid to get into the vehicle for a long time. Some may have insisted on leaving the tent immediately. I must say that the visibility was very low on the day the tent was set up, they were not sure of the distance to the summit and the forest, and this uncertainty was effective in the decision to abandon the tent. Taking the parts of the tent and taking them to the forest would be like giving the contents of the tent as a gift to nature. It made more sense to buy boots and a coat instead of buying parts from the tent.I have a very strong feeling that there was a heavy snowfall in mild weather starting from the morning hours of

February 1st and continuing all day. This precipitation would add another 60.70 cm of snow cover to the landscape that day. However, I think it turned into a storm and then into a dark cold with no precipitation, starting from the night hours.

Due to the expansion of forests towards the north, the trees on the edges are very young and do not produce good fuel. If you observe old cedar trees in parks, you will see branches with huge leaves on them, as well as many dried leafless branches. These contain plenty of resin and burn well. The aim is to break more branches and throw them down. It is possible to get to the top. In the meantime, you may have the opportunity to look towards the tent. However, you have no chance of seeing it in the dark and fog. I think surveillance is not the primary purpose.

[Arjan]

Analysing the last two days of the Dyatlov Group is like trying to solve many fully interconnected Sudoko's.
Assuming one number in one Sudoko as fixed, has consequences for all other Sudoko's.
After setting a few numbers as fixed in one Sudoko, the other Sudoko's may well start to showe inconsistencies.
And then it will be tempting to 'bend the rules' to try re-establish consistency in the other Sudoko's.

Reply on cuts of the tent
The first search party has found the tent with two kind of cuts, many vertical and a few horizontal

The horizontal cut near the (broken?) bamboo ski pole may well have been made to serve as:
- ventilation hole for fresh air in the emergency bivac for a few group members and
- peep hole or signal hole for the flash light on top of the tent in the direction to the cedar/ravine area

The vertical cuts make sense because these provide better temporal repair options for keeping the tent 'waterproof'

As many of us, I consider the snow plate engulfing the tent as highly unlikely, because:
- no traces are visible on the photos made by the first search party and
- the hillside of the tent is not avalanche prone.

In case a pressure wave had hit the tent and compressed the tent on top of group members inside, it may well have given the impression on group members inside that an avalanche had hit the tent.
Even after one cut had made, the 'white out' - caused by underpressure during a second or so after the overpressure had passed during several milliseconds - may have enhanced this impression: in panic the group members have cut themselves free.

Remark:
Details hinting on a blast wave with a pressure wave (kind of soliton) lasting a few milliseconds followed by an underpressure during a second or so:
- Fireballs reported
- Lyudmila's fatally broken ribcage without any signs visible on the photo in the mortuary: until now, I have read no other valid explanation than caused by a blast wave. This photo is fully out of line with the 'falling tree theory', because the ribcage should show the indent of deformation made by the tree hitting her ribcage.
- Foam on the mouth of Yuri Dor. as sign of a developing blast lung
- Damaged veins visible on the arm of Yuri Dor. in the mortuary and on the legs of Zinaida as in the Post Mortem report
- Six group members walking on socks for better grip on an icy surface after refreezing of melted snow caused by the overpressure
- Damaged eyes of Semyon and Lyudmila standing in the ravine near the water due to grid and small particles near the stream accelerated to hypersonic speed by the pressure wave. Remark: in a workshop small particles accelerated by a pressure hose will cause serious damage to eyes, while it will not accelerate objects with a considerable mass. Supervisors in the workshop of Delft University of Technology got very angry when we misused the pressure hose in their opinion.
- if I am not mistaken, one broken bamboo ski pole - snapped by the overpressure of the blast wave - visible on the photo of the tent site. Hint: the word firecracker is derived from bamboo sticks thrown in fire. 

Reply on the assumption of the whole group descending together to the cedar/ravine area
The assumption of the whole group descending together to the cedar/ravine area - at the beginning of the evening has at least three consequences:
1. unconscious/dead group members had been placed in postures within a tight timeframe of 36 - 48 hours by outsiders, because on February 2nd around 5 am all group members had been unconscious
2. a few group members had survived the fatal night for other under a far better condition. The re-erected tent had been one - and maybe only - place available for surviving the cold night.
3. this assumption assumption violates the laws of thermodynamics, see the analysis in the post: Hypothermia - a timeline

A sound logic conclusion is:
Group members may have choosen the re-erected tent to serve as emergency bivac for two or three group members.

If so, these two our three group members may have placed the other group members in postures as found by the search parties.
By far the best candidates for these two or three group members - who had survived the fatal night for the other - are: Zinaida and Rustem.

[Ziljoe]

I would agree with Osi and Glennm on certain conclusions.

It is quite possible that the day before there was build up of snow above the tent on a hard layer of snow. With wind and perhaps more snow , it was enough to simulate an avalanche in the hikers mind .

An attempt at cutting from the inside of a half collapsed tent fits with what was reported about "some" of the tent cuts . The three cuts reported that were cut from the inside seem to relate to being horizontal, and these three cuts may have been one or two actual cuts and not three separate cuts as the later vertical cuts seem to be done afterwards by the searchers. If I remember correctly, there were other attempts at cuts from the inside but they did not penetrate, this also lends itself to an attempt to cut but not being able to get enough purchase or tension on the fabric.

I believe that they couldn't regain anything more from the tent with their concern that they could make things worse or bring down more snow on top of them. Everything to survive the night would be in the forest , wood , shelter and water , plus they had matches.

I'm cautious about the fact that Rustems hat was never blown off his head , it seems that he wore his hat in this style , half on his head, that to me suggests a lack of strong wind, if there had been strong storm winds I would have thought it would have been blown off? .

Also , it would seem they never finished erecting the tent properly for strong winds , or , they had survived the night and had done the first part of dismantling it for the new day. The reason I say this is because there's nothing to support the ridge in the middle . A temporary ski pole might help but I don't think it would be ideal in strong winds and that slope is exposed to strong winds . When setting the tent up for the night , you prepare for the worst case scenario, you don't wait for it to happen then try to deal with it . The case files mention the skis found at the entrance, but they can't of been sticking up as it's the small peak of the tent that's spotted and no mention of seeing standing skis . This bothers me a bit because it may mean the tent has not been set up fully with the skis supporting the ridge. I'm sure there's a statement saying the were lying at the entrance .

I think the ceder was primarily used for its resources of wood , for burning , shelter and insulation. The broken higher branches were green and thrown to the ground for the hikers to sit on as the sat/stood around the fire .

I do suspect they got wet at the ravine and we're trying to dry themselves or feet/socks.The slit in the tree as being a look out is just pure speculation by one of the searchers .

[GlennM]

Using the Sudoku analogy supposes one important thing. It supposes all steps are based on logic. This logic may be inductive ( a good guess) or deductive ( only reasonable choice). Sudoku can not be mastered by illogical, non sensical moves.

The DPI has the same challenge. We investigate by putting ourselves mentally in those situations for insight. Many feel that the incident was survivable if sensible procedures were followed. Others imagine incidents where someone within the group acted irrationally. The irrational behavior can not be ascertained with certainty from the case files. If the collapse of the expedition is owing to some sort of insanity, it can not be proven. Do the dead show the result of berserker behavior?

Ziljoe makes a good point about the need for a robust tent setup. The tent`s center should be supported by ropes strung on trees. Ski poles are a poor substitute.  With this in mind, it is understandable that cutting a ledge into a snow bank has utility. It allows them to set at least one upslope ski pole high enough to support the mid section. But, the down slope roped ski pole is at a poor angle. If this kind of external support can not be achieved, then an internal center pole is the alternative. In my opinion, that construction would be more likely to fall in high wind.

[Arjan]

Thank you GlennM, for your reply.

The photo below - made by the search party - shows (proves?) that the re-erected tent on one ski (broken?) pole had been standing as emergency bivac nearly one month later.

Thank you Ziljoe, for your reply.

A few days ago I had failed to upload a 50 pages pdf-file including a full timeline for the last two days of the Dyatlov group that - as far as I am aware - resembles all details as found by both search parties.
Of course, under the presumption that these details had not been manipulated to disguise any sensitive details.

With exceptions: While evaluating details on photos printed from the 6 cameras, and details included in the diaries, I always take into account that manipulation may have taken place, with the photos of the departure/farewell of Yuri Yudin as example. The photos of the digging in the snow for making room for the tent shows way to many skis without any bindings.

In this pdf-file that I have tried to upload, 'Annex 1 Weather' concludes:
'There had been a moderate wind. Probably there was no snow storm'.

With two footnotes:
 30, See: https://dyatlovpass.com/investigation-materials-2?rbid=18461
 31, See: https://dyatlovpass.com/burmantovo-weather-february-1959

Coming back on the snow, let's look at this photo taken by the first search party:



Looking into the direction of the ravine/cedar, hardly any snow is visible on the rocks.


In case a pressure wave would hit this stone bands, the snow would melt and would freeze again, causing an icy surface on this surface.
If so, no surprise in the blast theory the group members descending over this icy surface would have walked on socks to have a better grip on the icy surface.

In the description of this theory, I have taken into account, that in literature on mountaineering accidents, rescuers do their utmost - even risk of sacrificing their own lifes - so save wounded companions.
 

[GlennM]

Your PDF is still unavailabke?

[Arjan]

Of course, yes it is.

Unfortunately I was not able to upload it three days ago to this forum.

Personally I think there is something in it for all who investigate this case, like:
-  'Annex 5 Hypothermia - A Time' that I have included in a post several weeks ago.
- two explanations for a missing tongue that meets human behaviour and logic:
1. 'in the manner of traitors to the Resistance in World War Two' as decribed in 'A treachery of Spies' by Manda Scott p. 5 and Back Cover, with a Biography of three pages at the end,
2. 'Emergency surgery' in order to remove the tongue that blocked the trachea of Lyudmila for breathing. Based on the descriptions of the group members, Yuri Dor and Yuri Kri may well have had the nerves to do so.
As far as I know there are no details found that hint on the first explanation, so I think that the second explanation resembles the details as best. But some of us investigation external or internal human violence may be interested in the first option.

 
Do you know a way to share this pdf with the Forum?

[GlennM]

I can recommend uploading the file to Google drive , setting permissions and then posting the download link.

BTW if her tongue was amputated, she would be covered in blood, yes?

[OLD JEDI 72]

I can recommend uploading the file to Google drive , setting permissions and then posting the download link.

BTW if her tongue was amputated, she would be covered in blood, yes?

Not necessarily if her tongue was frozen or say she was face first in moving water.

[Arjan]

Lyudmila had been found with her face in the stream, her body had already been starting to decay (see conclusions of Post Mortem report and photo made by the second search party)

There is a post on DyatlovPass.com stating that the helicopter pilots had refused to transport the bodies found in May, while no objection is reported for transporting the fully frozen bodies in February/March.
If my memory is correct, this post does only state indirect reasons for this refusal, but I think that the real reason is: fully frozen bodies don't smell, bodies in decay do badly.

It is highly unlikely that any traces of blood had been visible when her body had been found, these traces had been washed away by the stream.

Within the timeline I have been working on the sequences of events are:
- around 15:30 pm Lyudmila, Semyon hit by the pressure wave, Thibo standing on top of the ravine.
- one second later, Lyudmila had a fatal rib cage fracture near the stream, Semyon a very bad rib cage fracture near the den; Thibo had tumbles sideway - feet still standing on the side of the ravine - into the ravine near the den, his head hit a blunt stone in the ravine a second or so later.
- around 15:45 pm Lyudmila had died due to her ribcage fracture, or due to a fatal shock caused by the trauma
- around 17:00 pm Igor, both Yuri's and Alexander - descended from the tent to look what had happened to the three injured - had found their three injured companions laying in the ravine.
- the sides of the ravine had been icy due to the refrozen snow that had melted by the pressure wave.
- the four had been able to lift Semyon and Thibo the den "still under construction"
- Probably Yuri Dor. or Yudi Kri. had removed the tongue of Lyudmila - as amateur emergency surgery - as last try to let her breath again, of course to no avail.
- Non of the seven survived the next night: the watches of Thibo and Igor are an indication when both had lied down for the last time in their lifes.

The next day Zinaida and Rustem had placed the bodies of the seven in the postures as found by both seach parties.

To avoid misunderstandings:
I don't claim that the timeline fully reflects the events that had taken place.
As far as I am aware, this timeline gives a sound and coherent explanation for the peculiar - (understatement) - details as found by both search parties.

Of course, many other timelines are possible in case outsiders had placed bodies in the postures as found, and/or gear and bodies had been displaced by helicopter from somewhere else.

@ GlennM: the next few days I will look into the option of uploading the pdf-file to Google drive.

[OLD JEDI 72]

Arjan, how do you explain Lydia having strips of Yuri Kri's long johns wrapped around her leg? I am not too familiar with your theory so if this is repetitious, my apologies. Are we to assume Yuri K, already severely underdressed, tore his only bottom covering to wrap around a dead person's leg who had been dead over an hour?

[SURI]

I can't imagine why Zina and Rustem would be alone in the tent until morning. Just because they were closest to the tent doesn't mean they were the last to die. On the contrary, I think that the three from the slope never reached the fire and the two by the fire never reached the ravine.

[Arjan]

@ SURI

Within this theory, the three sub-groups had all left the tent site in order to return within an hour or so.
Having this in mind, all members had left the tent adequately clothed for a return trip lasting max. 2 hours:
- Lyudmila and two left around 15:00 pm for fetching running water and gathering firewood
- Igor and three had left around 17:00 at sunset in order to look after the fate of the three who had left for running water
- Rustem and Zinaide stayed behind due to two reasons: 1. to guide all back to the tent in the dark by use of a flashlight and 2. Zinaida had been wounded during a slide downhill during the ascend (graze wound: internal bleedings might be the case)

All knew quite well that survival without cover of blankets and each others close company during a cold night of minus 25 degrees celcius had been an illusion.

The tent site is pretty stupid without running water and without firewood, unless... there had been one group member with an injury that had been unclear around 15:00 pm
From the tent site it is quite feasible to return to 2nd settlement within one day and it is feasible to continue the tour in case the injury had not been bad as might be.

At once many details make sense, like a flash light turned on to guide halfway back to the tent and a flashlight on top to guide back to the tent from halfway.
And many unnatural postures wherein 8 group members had been found: Zinaida and Rustem had placed the dead bodies (showing rigor mortis in joints and lividity spot already before being fully frozen)
Zinaida had turned Rustem face down after she had guarded him until it had been obvious he was dead (He collapsed due to his skull fracture caused by falling head down while trying to lift Lyudmila from the stream to be placed next to the three).

@ OLD JEDI 72
Both Yuri's had sacrificed their outer clothing for the wounded and both had tried to keep themselves warm near the fire (fire had not given sufficient heat within this theory: see content of bladder of Yuri Dor).
Both had as well been looking in the tree to the tent site for an alarm in case the wounded Zinaida might have needed additional help.

[Ziljoe]

Arjan, how do you explain Lydia having strips of Yuri Kri's long johns wrapped around her leg? I am not too familiar with your theory so if this is repetitious, my apologies. Are we to assume Yuri K, already severely underdressed, tore his only bottom covering to wrap around a dead person's leg who had been dead over an hour?

I don't think there's any report of long John's wrapped around lyuda's legs that belonged to Yuri k. She has a jumper that is believed to be her own that is cut , one half is around her leg and the other half is at the ceder or the den. There are ripped trousers and two jumpers found at the den flooring, more clothing found in-between the den and the ceder and other clothing found under the ceder. The Yuri's were probably much better dressed than how they were found.

[SURI]

@ Arjan

If the last two had gone looking for the others, they would already be properly dressed. Shoes, gloves, flashlight. Rustem wouldn't have gone into the ravine with only one shoe. According to your scenario, he had time and still didn't take the other shoe. It is clear that he himself was a victim and could no longer save anyone.

[GlennM]

If this is going be homucide, then three conditions must be considered. They are the means or method of killing, the motive or resson for the killing and the opportunity to do so. Next, to ascertain the truth, we need eyewitness testimony, circumstantial evidence and physical evidence in the form of a murder weapon. Too,  it is axiomatic that the criminal will bring something to a crime scene and take something when leaving (think prints and residue).

Since this has been explored at length in the forum, there is nothing that definitively points to homicide. The primary reason for this is because there is simply no good reason for it to happen. The more that conspiracies get defended, the more selective the facts from the case files get chosen. Conspiracy theories are popular because they titillate. Natural causes are mundane. Which explanation would you believe more likely to become a book or movie?

[SURI]

I'm not surprised that it's still a mystery when even the forensic expert contradicts himself in the autopsy report. First he writes that the death was violent and then that they all died of hypothermia. I think he knew exactly what caused their deaths, but the conclusion must have been hypothermia.

[Ziljoe]

I'm not surprised that it's still a mystery when even the forensic expert contradicts himself in the autopsy report. First he writes that the death was violent and then that they all died of hypothermia. I think he knew exactly what caused their deaths, but the conclusion must have been hypothermia.

Much of this has already been discussed.

In Russia, an accident is considered a violent death:

The types of violent death are: murder, suicide, accident.

He drowned, fell from a height, was struck by lightning, froze, got hit by a train, a car - all this is a violent death.

They can only write what they can conclude. Who knew what exactly caused their deaths?

All the case files say what happened, there are some contradictions , or what seem like contradictions but they fit together .

When the case was closed , everyone was  confused and angry , the families were angry at the delays and slow reaction for the search and rescue, the authorities were angry at the complacency of the UPI and it's measures to protect the students from harm.

People speculated at the time about things they didn't understand, the colour of their faces, the rocket tests in the skies etc.
The case was closed and they didn't have a clear cut reason to what drove them out if the tent , it must have been overwhelming!.

Much later , when the case was dragged out and back into the public's knowledge, every reporter jumped at the chance to sensationalise the mystery, books, balls of light, radiation , eyes and tongue cut out, radiation  , murder, KGB , accidental dates being changed on purpose etc etc ,were thrown about, miss quotes were used from "experts" etc.

The only mystery is , what made them leave the tent and can occur with what we have at the location and fits with the known facts .

Here's  why the autopsy says what it says. 





And since this is about tents , the tent was listed as a 12 person tent?

[Partorg]

.

[SURI]

I also have an interesting article that explains how the injuries could have occurred.

https://www.kp.ru/daily/26311.5/3189866/

[Ziljoe]

I also have an interesting article that explains how the injuries could have occurred.

https://www.kp.ru/daily/26311.5/3189866/

These speculations are in another thread somewhere. I can't remember the conclusion, other than  a fight could cause some of those injuries but so could the environment, if not all. The "expert " in your link, I think suggested they were tied to a tree and tortured , he speculates wildly in my opinion. The lack of further and more severe injuries that could occur in a fight to the death  to the hikers kind of rules out any sort of fight. There should be broken hands, ripped off fingernails , broken jaws , Bite marks , scratches, ripped pockets , marks on the bodies where clothing was pulled into the skin .

All the marks on the hands and faces are consistent with other hypothermia cases found in winter conditions and hard frost.

[GlennM]

There is simply no reason for it to be murder. There simply was a reason for them to leave the tent. Prove it and you win the Dyatlov Pass Incident lifetime achievement award. Many of us try, but we are blocked by the same reality. Whatever motivated them to leave was a transient effect, lost to time. What to do? It can be argued, modeled or demonstrated, but never proven. This is because for all of our effort, there is no single thing we can point to which could not happen in some other way. There is no "smoking gun" so to speak.The same holds true for conspiracy advocates. One can argue, demonstrate ( within reason) or model the situation, but it is not proof and would not bear the test in a court of law.
Still, we keep turning over stones so to speak because what happened does not seem to have had been inevitable.  It was.. Perhaps one day, the stone someone turns over will be the Rosetta stone.

[SURI]

There is simply no reason for it to be murder. There simply was a reason for them to leave the tent. Prove it and you win the Dyatlov Pass Incident lifetime achievement award. Many of us try, but we are blocked by the same reality. Whatever motivated them to leave was a transient effect, lost to time. What to do? It can be argued, modeled or demonstrated, but never proven. This is because for all of our effort, there is no single thing we can point to which could not happen in some other way. There is no "smoking gun" so to speak.The same holds true for conspiracy advocates. One can argue, demonstrate ( within reason) or model the situation, but it is not proof and would not bear the test in a court of law.
Still, we keep turning over stones so to speak because what happened does not seem to have had been inevitable.  It was.. Perhaps one day, the stone someone turns over will be the Rosetta stone.

You can't prove something if the investigation is hiding something. There are only certain indications. There are many contradictory statements. In the previous thread, the combat leaflet seemed strange to you, you had a lot of questions about it, and suddenly, within a moment, you know that everything is fine with it.  What a divided mindset.

[GlennM]

Unfortunately, your comment crossed a boundary. You have written an ad hominum response. This is a form of logical fallacy where a person unable to defend a point of view attacks the character of the opposition. If you choose to do this to others in the forum, you will surely find it a lonely place. We are done.

[SURI]

I also have an interesting article that explains how the injuries could have occurred.

https://www.kp.ru/daily/26311.5/3189866/

The lack of further and more severe injuries that could occur in a fight to the death  to the hikers kind of rules out any sort of fight. There should be broken hands, ripped off fingernails , broken jaws , Bite marks , scratches, ripped pockets , marks on the bodies where clothing was pulled into the skin .

That would be in case they fought with strangers. Here it was supposed to look at least somewhat like a believable accident or freezing, which it ultimately succeeded in, almost everyone believes it.