Presence of water in the foothills of Kholat

[Osi]

The major problem with the water supply is that you stand at the source of some of the sources that feed the Auspiya and Lozva rivers. Above there are bare hills and you cannot see a stream. Considering the current temperatures, the thaw will only begin in March, so only then will you have access to sufficient water. To get ready water, you will have to descend to a much lower altitude and break the ice. They must have known that after walking 1 km from the tent on bare ground and entering the forest, there would be no chance of melt water for another 500 meters. There was no reason to go down to the forest to clean up or get water, and there was no canteen or other equipment to carry water. If the decision to spend a night without fire on the summit had been planned in advance, we would probably have witnessed his notes on the last pages of the diaries. A blizzard that suddenly came towards the end of a late start of the hike, not being able to determine how far the forest was due to poor visibility, and the fear of losing the altitude gained and not being able to set up the tent in the dark...
If there is no possibility of progress due to the blizzard and there is very little time left until dark, setting up camp where you are seems like a logical option.
I remember reading statements that there was a log in the stove or enough pieces of wood to fill the stove. This corresponds to a heating source that will melt the snow to provide enough water for everyone on an extremely cold night and will last 2-3 hours for the tent occupants.
You don't have to go down to the forest and leave to get wood and water.

[GlennM]

Good thinking Osi. Is your opinion that the group fully intended to make it to the lake is a single march, but got stalled for the second time by weather on the ridge?

[Osi]

I don't think they had a goal to reach the lake. At TO altitude, they can only get water by melting snow. I agree with the idea that they had to stop due to natural conditions. First, not being able to move because of the heavy load and moving north, getting caught in a blizzard on the slope. You can't see how far the forest is from the slope until you leave Labaz and go up the pass. It is obvious that they couldn't see the forest because of the fog when they ascended from the left of the pass and reached the slope.

[GlennM]

Osi, how could they responsibly proceed with such an obvious oversight?  Either they carry water or they move from water source to water source. This is worth additional consideration. Did they carry water? Did they expect to use the stove to melt snow? Did they make a small fire outside of the tent? Did they expect to move from labaz to lake in one push.?

If they got stalled out at their last camp site, there need not be 9 people going in socks for a drink of water. Instead , 6 could make camp and 2 ski downslope with a carrier to fetch water. Better still, make fire at ir in the tent abd melt snow, yes?

[Arjan]

Until now I have read one reason why the group had made their campsite for the night at the tent-site: the journalist collective Aleksej Rakitin has made clear that the sun had already disappeared/set behind a mountain around 15:30 pm. Everyone who has been in the mountains knows that when the sun disappears behind a mountain-range it will start to get cold. According to my estimation, the group had arrived at the tentsite around 15 - 15:30 pm. This may have been caused by bad planning: the tracking record of planning of this group had not been flawless until the accent from the storage (in my opinion).

Another plausible reason is, the one or two group members had been injured during the climb from the storage due to e.g. a slide. Especially when the severity of the injury had not been clear, the tent site is an ideal place for òr continuing the tour when the injury had been minor òr returning when the injury had been worse. Possible injuries that make this kind of compromise logic are: brain concussion, bruises on the lower belly that may have caused internal bleedings. During the night the severity of this kind of injuries may be evaluated better than after the accident.

The consequences of the choice for the campsite had been: no liquid water available while no fuel and gazoline burner had been found among the possessions of the group.

The source of liquid water nearby had been: ..... the stream in the ravine!

It makes sense that some 5-6 group members had prepared the tentsite and the interior of the tent while 3 group members had descended - on foot and not on skis (because skis had been necessary as floor in the tent and walking back with water in buckets and skis in hands is more cumbersome than descending on foot - to the ravine. The walk/descend had taken around 15 minutes are so. The return trip might have taken around 20 minutes or so.
This calculation shows that the 3 group members might have been able to fetch water in the ravine and return to the tentsite well before local sunset around 17 pm at that date.


 

[GlennM]

Arjan, I like your idea, but we must account for how water was to be carried back to camp. Does the inventory give us a clue? The criminal case does not mention what equipemnt the ravine 4 had with them. If three went for water, then who? What is your thinking about this, Arjan?

I think those who went for water would be fully clothed. I think they would ski down hill and shoulder their skis on the way back. It seems more reasonable to go for firewood rather than water. The fire supplis melt water and heat for cooking and warmth. Further, I think they would be smart and pack firewood from the labaz area.

I think if the last camp was pitched in order to tend to injured team members, there is little justification to trek a half mile into the forest. The same effort should be exerted to go back to the labaz and home.

The unknown compelling force was transient, else it would be known. For me, that means weather phenomona. However, it makes little sense to leave any shelter in a blizzard. It makes no sense to abandon a snow covered tent, if the combined effort of nine people could not clear the overburden. It makes no sense to blame killers. All behavior is motivated. There was none. Everybody leaves clues at a crime scene. It is inescapable. No crime, no clues.

The mystery is comparable to trying to determine what was thrown in a swimming pool by looking at the ripples.

[Arjan]

As far as I am aware, the ravine area had never been investigated as a crime scenery/area by the second search party.
By the way, this had been an awful lot of work, removing some four meters high snow by hand over a large area.

The way the den and the four group members had been found on the floor of the ravine near the snow, suggest that the snow conditions had been very favourable for the group members (at the end of January).
If this had been the case, group members descending to the ravine had not needed to dig in the snow - or use tools like ace-axes - to have access the stream in the ravine for fetching running water.
All in all the stream in the ravine had been very easily accessible for fetching running water at the date when the group members had set up the tent area.

The obvious way to carry sufficient water back to the tent site is by hand in waterbottles or in buckets.

If I may guess who had descended to the ravine area to fetch water is using the photos by the camear as a hint:
- three group members are visible on the photos taken on the last days of the group as a subgroup, see the next 'loose photo':



On this photo, Zinaida is passing by in the front while Semyon invited her to join the three group member: the way she smiles on other photos showing the four, shows that she had joined on this portrait of the four with reluctancy. Based in body language visible on photos from the cameras, I have the impression that Semyon and Zinaida had not been natural friends during the tour.

So based on teh photos made by the cameras, I guess that Lyudmila, Semyon and Thibo had descended to the ravine in order to fetch running water.

The post-mortem reports provide another hind for estimating who had descended to the ravine:
- Only Lyudmila and Semyon had broken ribcages
- Thibo had a bad partly crushed skull at the side of his head.

In case a blast wave had caused this injuries, these three group members had been standing in the ravine area:
- Lyudmila and Semyon on the floor of the ravine, because the shape of the ravine operates as a concave lense for a pressure wave from a blast high in the air. The shape of the ravine causes that the pressure on the two ribcages had been twice the value of the original pressure wave descending to the ground.
- Thibo had been standing on top of the ravine: the convex top diverts the original pressure causing a considerable lower reflection: he had been mainly hit by the original pressure, only half the pressure that Lyudmila and Semyon had have on their ribcage. Unconscious, Thibo had fallen sideways from the top to the bottom of the ravine: his head had hit a round stone in/near the stream.

In the theory that I have drafted, Zinaida had spent the night in the tent with Rustem - hint: they had been often on duty together according to their diaries. The next day, Zinaida and Rustem had placed the bodies of the other group members in the postures as found by the two search parties. While doing so in the ravine, Rustem had fallen and as a result had a crack in his skull. On the way back to the tent, Rustem had suddenly collapsed by brain damage: Zinaida had waited next to him until it had been obvious - that he was dead; she had turned him until his face was not visible anymore. At that time - somewhere 9 pm the next day, her hypothermia had progressed that she had been able to walk a small distance home - the tent in this case. 

[GlennM]

That the ravine was not considered a crime scene is telling. The searchers did not suspect foul play, or it would be noted. The searchers found nothing other than the bodies and  a mat of branches with cloth remnants at the corners for seating. Can we assume that the ravine 4 safely and successfully first made their wood mat and used it? Would they leave the mat and drink ice cold,water? Was a fire made at the wood mat?  Perhaps when Zolo or Lyuda went for water,and there was an accident.

Is physical damage from an airburst more probable than a slip-fall from the embankment or slippery stones ? Is a collapsed snow cave even more plausible? A belly full of frozen ice water would be thawed and measured at autopsy. An areial detonation should damage trees. The same trees would absorb energy from the blast. Is it likely that by chance the detonation was in such direct proximity to the ravine group? What type detonation?  Is it one that leaves shrapnel and casing debris? Is it one that sprays unspent chemicals like nitrates which color skin orange? Perhaps a meteorite strewn field happened?

I think whatever  happened at the cedar change the group dynamic. I can believe Igor, Zina and Rustem went to the tent for salvage. If an aircraft were to pass by, so much the better. I,Z,R did not spell SOS on the snow, the tent was the priority,,though hopeless. They spent too long in the woods.

Is it possible I,Z,R were unaware of the troubles at the ravine?  Surely someone would stay to tend the injured, if they were aware of injuries. Would not those in the ravine who were less affected comfort those who were worse off?  Is that what searchers found? Or did the injuries happen post mortem?

Any blast affecting the ravine 4 would similarly affect I,Z,R.

[Arjan]

Other details that may hint on a pressure/blast wave hitting the tent area to a lesser extend are:

- tent cut from inside caused by group members cutting themselves in panic out of the tent after being hit by the pressure wave
- Foam on the mouth of Yuri Dor as result of a limited blast lung
- Zinaida and Rustem having clear visible bloodvessels due to damaged and/or temporally numbed valves in bloodvessels. Zinaida in her underlegs (see post mortem report) and Rustem visible on his underarms on photos taken in the mortuary.
- No snow and a icy surface between the tent and the cedar/ravine due to melted and refrozen snow caused by the pressure and refrozen in the cold night afterwards

So the tentsite may well have been hit by the pressure wave although less severe.

[GlennM]

Heat scorch?

[Arjan]

Put an adequate pressure on - on the top layer of - snow and it will melt.

[ahabmyth]

ITS PITCH BLACK - Maybe they can see their hands in front of their face. Probably be able to see the contours of the mountains because of the snow I dont know. Was there a moon at the time, anyone care to find out and maybe we will know what they could see.

[Arjan]

Many years ago, I have investigated the period of the moon during the fatal night. If I remember well, it had been half moon.
If my memory is correct, with a clear sky - and as a consequence a very cold night - the visibility had been rather well during the fatal night.

It makes fully sense if three group members had looked for running water in the ravine around 15:30 - 16:00 pm on the afternoon before the fatal night.

The journalist collective Aleksej Rakatin has shown in their book that the sun had descended at the tentsite behind the mountains at around 15 pm at the end of January.
If this is correct, then it had started to be cold in case the sky had been clear.

While preparing the tentsite the group may well have followed its normal procedure:
5 - 6 group members setting up the tent and preparing the tent for the night
3 - 4 group members gathering firewood and fetching running water.

If so, the 3 - 4 group members had descended to the ravine during daylight in the second half of the afternoon.

In my theory,
- these 3 - 4 group members had not returned to the tentsite due to their severe - fatal wounds obtain by an external source while fetching running water in the ravine.
- 4 group members had descended to the ravine at dusk - hint: flashlight found halfway switched on serving as beacon to find the way back halfway to the tentsite in dark - to look after the fate of the 3 - 4 group members in the ravine
- 2 group members had spent the night in the tent - hint: flashlight on the tent to serve as second guidance to find the tent for returning group members - under full insulation of many blankets while keeping eachother warm. Both have descended the next morning and have placed the other group members in postures as found by the seach parties. Of both, Rustem had fallen on the icy surface and cracked his skull: he had suddenly succumbed due to brain failure. Zinaida had guarded him until it had been obvious that he had livy spots as well. Then she had progressed so far in hypothermia that she had only been able to return some hunderd meters home - the tent in her case - until she lost consciousness for the last time.

At once many details as found by both search parties start to make sense. 

 

[GlennM]

Arjan, the rescue party who descended to the woods to help their stricken friends had no need to knife open the tent to start their descent.

[ahabmyth]

Afraid dosnt make sense to me about bringing water. On this day we are told there were extremely windy conditions, we only have to look at some of the last photos taken to imagine this. So if we assume there was plenty of snow it would be easier in those conditions just to scoop up some snow and melt it. We know the oven wasnt used as it was found in its box, so maybe they had an alternative sauce to use. Doing this would save 2 people 30minutes in that terrible weather.

[GlennM]

It certainly seems to reduce to whether the group split up or stayed together. I feel that two people walking for a mile round trip to fetch water is unbeliebable. I believe nine people descending as group for the same resource is also unbelievable. I rule out the liklihood that their final camp was in the forest because Igor's diary gives no indications. Therefore the final camp at elevation 880 on 1079 was abandoned for the greater good of the expedition. I feel that since the tent was cut away, the immediate and lingering threat was suffocation from sliding snow.

[ahabmyth]

Arjan - Well done for thinking about the moon phase.
Unfortunately I done believe a theory that their could have been a clear night. The last pictures taken show some of the group on ski's in a blizzard and a few pics of them getting ready to assemble the tent and the weather then looks the same.
For the same reason (bad weather) I do not believe that anyone would be looking for water or firewood as they were well above the treeline.
I only assume that they would all be hunkered down in the tent trying to keep warm.
The fact that they didnt use the stove was strange but when you think about the amount of wood it would take to keep a reasonable fire going all night maybe they didnt think it worth it. I dont know much about these stoves. I know (first hand) that there were (in the UK) a paraffin based sort of wax that was used to start a fire. The amount of fuel in the stove must have been quite small and lets not forget the tent was 2 tents sewn together, maybe then thinking it not worth it.

[ahabmyth]

Arjan re Pressure blast wave.
             Lets not forget that only 13klm away was another group of hikers who more than likely would have bee affected. Unless we assume a targeted strike was spot on.