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1

General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by Partorg on April 17, 2024, 07:51:52 AM »

Snow on leeward slopes is unevenly distributed. On the upper third of the slope, the wind flow saturated with snow, turbulized by the flow around the ridge, deposits a certain amount of snow and a small accumulation occurs there. If the lee slope is steeper than ~30°, cornices may form on the ridge. If the bend is smaller, cornices do not form and the snow accumulation looks like a gentle hill. In the middle third of the slope, the wind flow is laminar and the snow almost does not linger there, and in the lower third, precipitation begins again, reaching a maximum at the bottom of the valley. It is precisely this classic layout that we see on the slope of the NE spur. 1079
The tent was located on the border of the upper and middle thirds of the slope, and snow was periodically accumulated and removed there.
In the middle third of the slope all the snow is mostly carried away, so it remained there in the form of footprints-columns cleared from the surrounding snow.
In the lower third, the footprints were simply covered in snowstorms.

As for the name of the mountain. If you trust Slinkina’s dictionary, the word: “kho'olat” translated from Mansi means “dead people.” Moreover, the dead are very ancient, mummified, mossy, almost petrified. At the top of 1079 there are several low, horizontally elongated flat rock-remains, which may well be associated in the imagination with some ancient Mansi burials.
But this is my purely subjective opinion, which I do not hope to impose on anyone )).

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by GlennM on April 17, 2024, 05:23:15 AM »

We must also consider those footprints again. Did they lead from the tent all the way to the woods? No, why not? They were obscured owing to a mass movement of snow. It seems clear that slides, slips, slumps and even avalanches occur on the slope of 1079. The right combination of angle, densities, wind and barren landscape make it a reality. Them Mansi knew this, hence the name of 1079.

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by Partorg on April 17, 2024, 04:13:49 AM »

относительно точности. Даже весьма приблизительный расчет технической погрешности при такого рода «измерениях» на месте дает погрешность +/- 10...12 м.

Я имел ввиду не координаты полученные с помощью засечек и разного рода фотопривязок, а место где КАН нашел шплинты от колец лыжных палок. А они могли быть брошены только там где кольца с палок снимали. Вот эти снятые кольца и видны на фото с только что разобранной и перетащенной на пару метров вверх палаткой.
Подсвечник, проволока, булавки, и что там ещё, были найдены там же (если я ничего не путаю), а  стало быть о дальнейших путях следования палатки говорить не имеет смысла.

лавины (неважно, что это — «доска» или свежий снег) никогда не «руководствуются» только одним параметром.

Разумеется. Я так и написал: «при определённых погодных условиях»  Если, например,  тёплый западный ветер «как при взлёте самолёта» вечера 31/01, к ночи ослабел до каких нибудь 2 - 4 м/с  и оставаясь при этом относительно тёплым (≥10°С > t° снежного покрова) омывал склон в течении нескольких часов, то склон вполне мог покрыться слоем поверхностной изморози которая и послужила «слабым слоем» для выпавшего днём из общей метели смеси свежего (атмосферного) и метелевого (перенесённого) снега.
Доски (snow slab) в этом случае конечно не было, был слаф, но и его могло хватить чтобы на первом этапе вогнать их в панику и заставить разрезать палатку  чтобы выбраться из под него, а потом заставить уйти в лес чтобы дождаться там когда ветер на склоне утихнет и можно будет вернуться к раскопкам.
Такая же ночь могла там случиться двумя – тремя неделями раньше и тогда поверхностная изморозь, накрытая сверху принесенным и слежавшимся снегом, стала бы «поверхностной погребённой», с теми же функциями «слабого слоя» для лежащей на ней ветровой доски толщиной 15 - 20 см.
Естественно, такая погодная комбинация складывается там не раз в неделю. Скорее всего даже не каждый год и надо строить зимовку на этом чертовом склоне чтобы хоть в чём нибудь убедиться.
Но IMHO, оба варианта достаточно правдоподобны и в отличии от всех прочих не умножают сущностей, ибо опираются на то что там реально имеется – снег и склон. Старик Оккам может спать спокойно.


                                         *****************

regarding accuracy. Even a very approximate calculation of the technical error in this kind of "measurements" on the spot, gives an error of +/- 10...12 m.

I did not mean the coordinates obtained using serifs and various kinds of photo references, but the place where KAN found the cotter pins from the rings of ski poles. And they could only be thrown where the rings were removed from the sticks. These removed rings are visible in the photo with the tent just dismantled and dragged a couple of meters. The candlestick, wire, and pins were found in the same place (if I’m not confusing anything), and therefore there is no point in talking about further routes of the tent

avalanches (no matter what it is - "board" or fresh snow) are never "guided" by only one parameter.

Of course. That’s what I wrote: «under certain weather conditions» If, for example, a warm westerly wind «like when an airplane takes off» on the evening of 31/01, by nightfall weakened to some 2 - 4 m/s and, while remaining warm, washed the slope for several hours, then the slope could well be covered with a layer of surface frost, which served as a weak layer for the mixture of fresh (atmospheric) snow and transported blizzard snow that fell during the day from the general snowstorm.
In this case, of course, there was no snow slab, there was a slaf, but it could have been enough to drive them into panic at the first stage and force them to cut the tent to get out, and then force them to go into the forest to wait there until the wind on the slope subsides and it will be possible to return to the excavations.

The same night could have happened there two to three weeks earlier, and then the surface frost, covered on top with brought and compacted of vind snow, would have become «surface buried» with the same functions of a “weak layer” for lying on it the wind slab 15 - 20 cm. thickness
Naturally, such a weather combination occurs there more than once a week. Most likely, not even every year, and you need to build a winter hut on this damn slope to at least be convinced of anything.

IMHO, both options are quite plausible and, unlike all the others, they do not multiply entities, because they rely on what actually exists in fact - snow and slope. Old man Occam can sleep peacefully.

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by Partorg on April 17, 2024, 04:07:56 AM »

delete

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by GlennM on April 16, 2024, 07:07:04 PM »

With regard to those trace footprints, as grist to the mill, what self respecting assasin, convict, soldier or garden variety thug is going to go out in the middle of nowhere for the sole purpose of causing the demise of loyal Soviets and forget to put their boots on? Ziljoe is,right, prints don't lie.

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by Ziljoe on April 16, 2024, 05:47:01 PM »

The phrase "avalanche theory" does not cover all aspects of what is being debated when we talk about what made the hikers leave the tent.

As Glennm puts it , ( quite nicely)" a movement of snow". I believe there is a case for this. I don't argue an avalanche occurred and caused the injuries at the tent, I would however suggest that a snow slip or slide was possible and thus caused them to move away from the tent in a controlled retreat to a safer environment, the perceived safer environment being the resources of the trees for shelter .

The footprints can not be denied, bare feet, socks etc. Someone made these prints, even if outsiders did it , they were done by people not wearing boots/ shoes. The mechanic's of the snow that allows such foot prints is different to the hard snow that lies on the slope the majority of the time from what I can see in repeated videos.

To me, this anomaly of the footprints being left behind suggests fresh snow and a temperature change. The footprints would suggest no one else was there other than the hikers.

Was fresh snow falling and / or being drifted on the slope on the night the hikers chose to pitch their tent?. It would seem that is the case.

Could a not so insignificant amount of snow that had built up over a number of hours ( up to a foot deep) , slide in to the hikers cut out in the slope?.

 


Image courtesy of WAB in helping with my poor illustration. ( this does not mean WAB shares my view points. Many thanks to WAB for doing the image).

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by GlennM on April 16, 2024, 04:23:05 PM »

I have a feeling that these clarifications imply that while a movement of snow could ( and did) affect the tent and hikers, it was insufficient to cause the degree of personal harm seen on their remains. It was sufficient to cause the group to employ safety  practices out of an abundance of caution. Is this consistent with best practices of the time?  I believe so.

We need meteorological data for the weather conditions in that part of the Northern Urals at the critical times. This would reinforce the idea that snow buildup, a slide or slump and wind speed compromised the tent. Secondly, it lends credence to the necessity of the hikers to move downslope in two pushes to the tree line. It reinforces the idea that when the fire was lit at the cedar, the heat was rapidly carried off. It reminds us that you can do everything right and bad thingsnsrill happen.

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by Ziljoe on April 16, 2024, 01:48:51 PM »

Thanks WAB  .

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by WAB on April 16, 2024, 01:28:52 PM »

Thanks WAB.  Obviously it's not accurate and I'm happy for you to add accuracy. It was a scribble on my phone. But it's the only theory I can put forward for the reason for them to leave the tent. 

You have been there , so your input is always welcome . Obviously I'm a little stubborn in my thinking but I have little else to go with and nothing else seems to give us an explanation as to why they left the tent.

Dear Ziljoe, thank you for your feedback.
As I promised, I present you with a picture of clarification. It can be seen at the link:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UUTldk64geeVY-cKZ_1XSLYcPvFOTWrQ/view?usp=sharing

I can add that the thickness of fresh snow there is never more than 30 cm (1 foot - I have a mistake in the picture, not 1 inch, but 1 foot!). and they did not bury the tent deep, but only leveled the site. as you can see in the picture on the link
https://disk.yandex.ru/i/cG0Vot7p3ZtAYA .

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General Discussion / Re: AVANLANCHE THEORY

« Last post by Ziljoe on April 16, 2024, 12:24:19 PM »

Thanks WAB.  Obviously it's not accurate and I'm happy for you to add accuracy. It was a scribble on my phone. But it's the only theory I can put forward for the reason for them to leave the tent. 

You have been there , so your input is always welcome . Obviously I'm a little stubborn in my thinking but I have little else to go with and nothing else seems to give us an explanation as to why they left the tent.